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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 30, 2023

[ Saturday, July 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, July 31, 2023 ]

DAY 303 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/31/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.274
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 589

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 210
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 18

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-31 04:00:12OBSERVATION20233031858.7800440.3100649.545050000.30.3FF26.78004588.78004210444.77727990492 00.2739634111210116 22415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:03FORECAST20233031856.0339.61447.8220000.30.3FF24.03586.03211445.3580420942700.19067133170141612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20233031857.50640.71249.1090000.30.3FF25.506587.506211445.3580420942700.233290261201571612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20233031856.46240.60448.5330000.30.3FF24.462586.462211445.3580420942700.20262307204131612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-30 04:00:12FORECAST20233031856.80441.34249.0730000.30.3FF24.804586.804211445.3580420942700.212394360188311612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233031856.89440.42448.6590000.30.3FF24.894583.894210444.7772799049200.215010702097461612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20233031856.8440.40648.6230000.30.3FF24.84582.84210444.7772799049200.213438661877181612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20233031856.13840.74848.4430000.30.3FF24.138582.138210444.7772799049200.19361804148791612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:05FORECAST20233031855.0440.3747.7050000.30.3FF23.04581.04210444.7772799049200.164955272634831612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20233031854.87840.76647.8220000.30.3FF22.878580.878210444.7772799049200.160971050247261612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:10FORECAST20233031857.41641.37849.3970000.30.3FF25.416584.416210444.7772799049200.230549271655111612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:04FORECAST20233031857.68641.8149.7480000.30.3FF25.686582.686210444.7772799049200.238826011441741612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:04FORECAST20233031856.76841.0948.9290000.30.3FF24.768585.768210444.7772799049200.211353044352621612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:06FORECAST20233031856.19242.27849.2350000.30.3FF24.192585.192210444.7772799049200.195101731229891612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20233031856.1564148.5780000.30.3FF24.156586.156210444.7772799049200.194111840121861612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:03FORECAST20233031856.53441.82849.1810000.30.3FF24.534586.534210444.7772799049200.204657596523521612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233031856.42640.15448.290000.30.3FF24.426586.426210444.7772799049200.201610349891981612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:05FORECAST20233031855.79640.147.9480000.30.3FF23.796580.796210444.7772799049200.184381674942421612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20233031856.40840.78448.5960000.30.3FF24.408581.408210444.7772799049200.201105125592771612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20233031856.3940.67648.5330000.30.3FF24.39582.39210444.7772799049200.200600659796531612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233031856.1240.11848.1190000.30.3FF24.12581.12210444.7772799049200.193125008008531612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20233031856.10240.60448.3530000.30.3FF24.102579.102210444.7772799049200.192632740082711612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233031855.23839.66847.4530000.30.3FF23.238578.238210444.7772799049200.169910621521411612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 00:00:06FORECAST20233031855.23839.54247.390000.30.3FF23.238576.238210444.7772799049200.169910621521411612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20233031852.68239.07445.8780000.30.3FF20.682570.682210444.7772799049200.113160570994541612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:04FORECAST20233031854.9539.48847.2190000.30.3FF22.95578.95210444.7772799049200.162734017046011612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:04FORECAST20233031855.74239.45247.5970000.30.3FF23.742577.742210444.7772799049200.182948713456961612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 08:00:06FORECAST20233031856.08439.18247.6330000.30.3FF24.084580.084210444.7772799049200.192141238103921612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 04:00:13FORECAST20233031856.49840.62248.560000.30.3FF24.498580.498210444.7772799049200.203638822272421612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 00:00:05FORECAST20233031858.65841.14449.9010000.240.24FF26.658583.658210444.7772799049200.269920990223431622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 20:00:06FORECAST20233031856.91240.85648.8840000.240.24FF24.912579.912210444.7772799049200.215536203042921612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 16:00:07FORECAST20233031858.96440.56849.7660000.240.24FF26.964582.964210444.7772799049200.280112784946431622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233031856.64240.0148.3260000.240.24FF24.642574.642210444.7772799049200.207732021428691612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 08:00:06FORECAST20233031855.38238.96647.1740000.240.24FF23.382575.382210444.7772799049200.17357368000051612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 04:00:08FORECAST20233031855.97640.85648.4160000.240.24FF23.976570.976210444.7772799049200.189208332456631612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233031858.78443.89851.3410000.320.32FF26.784585.784210444.7772799049200.274095080055331622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 20:00:04FORECAST20233031860.92643.59252.2590000.380.38FF28.926587.926210444.7772799049200.349501133487611622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 16:00:07FORECAST20233031858.2843.7951.0350000.350.35FF26.28586.28210444.7772799049200.257592444101651622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233031858.92844.45651.6920000.350.35FF26.928579.928210444.7772799049200.278904143780191622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 08:00:04FORECAST20233031864.68845.30254.9950000.360.36FF32.688583.688210444.7772799049200.495540404747981622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20233031864.68845.30254.9950000.360.36FF32.688583.688210444.7772799049200.495540404747981622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 00:00:07FORECAST20233031864.68845.30254.9950000.360.36FF32.688580.688210444.7772799049200.495540404747981622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 20:00:05FORECAST20233031864.68845.30254.9950000.360.36FF32.688579.688210444.7772799049200.495540404747981622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20233031864.68845.30254.9950000.360.36FF32.688579.688210444.7772799049200.495540404747981622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 12:00:04FORECAST20233031865.10246.5855.8410000.380.38FF33.102579.102210444.7772799049200.512023409760211632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-23 08:00:05FORECAST20233031862.58244.83453.7080000.360.36FF30.582565.582210444.7772799049200.412398329685531622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 04:00:09FORECAST20233031860.63845.37453.0060000.360.36FF28.638564.638210444.7772799049200.338919511094281622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 00:00:08FORECAST20233031864.5843.6154.0950000.220.22FF32.58567.58210444.7772799049200.4912406022291622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 20:00:04FORECAST20233031864.5843.6154.0950000.220.22FF32.58566.58210444.7772799049200.4912406022291622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233031865.26445.06855.1660000.150.15FF33.264566.264210444.7772799049200.518469248452881632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233031863.10444.8753.9870000.110.11FF31.104562.104210444.7772799049200.432788714215281622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 08:00:05FORECAST20233031863.544.02453.7620000.140.14FF31.5561.5210444.7772799049200.448380644493841622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 04:00:11FORECAST20233031858.69443.35851.0260000.110.11FF26.694557.694210444.7772799049200.271110337803171622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 00:00:05FORECAST20233031857.34440.49648.920000.130.13FF25.344555.344210444.7772799049200.228369479252761612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 20:00:08FORECAST20233031858.3742.27850.3240000.060.06FF26.37561.37210444.7772799049200.260501102177531622415220DRYL
2023-07-21 16:00:06FORECAST20233031861.12441.16251.1430000.070.07FF29.124572.124210444.7772799049200.356845017775661622415220DRYL
2023-07-21 12:00:06FORECAST20233031867.96442.90855.43600000FF35.964571.964210444.7772799049200.623923273878451632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-21 08:00:06FORECAST20233031868.7242.60255.66100000FF36.72578.72210444.7772799049200.652197111984861632415145DRYM
2023-07-21 04:00:12FORECAST20233031866.68643.21454.950000.060.06FF34.686583.686210444.7772799049200.574656808096251632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-21 00:00:04FORECAST20233031846.45441.32443.8890000.020.02FF14.454553.454210444.7772799049200.0333780562289741612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-20 20:00:09FORECAST20233031846.0441.10843.5740000.020.02FF14.04548.04210444.7772799049200.0304083241907511612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-20 16:00:11FORECAST20233031849.7343.23246.4810000.010.01FF17.73565.73210444.7772799049200.0661440585424741612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-20 12:00:09FORECAST20233031851.92647.78649.8560000.060.06FF19.926571.926210444.7772799049200.0993147792430521612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-20 08:00:05FORECAST20233031852.23247.80450.0180000.060.06FF20.232580.232210444.7772799049200.104762473373231612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-20 04:00:11FORECAST20233031844.0642.47643.2680000.040.04FF12.06553.06210444.7772799049200.0190633709122481612415217.5DRYL