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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 3, 2023

[ Sunday, July 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 4, 2023 ]

DAY 276 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/04/2023 04:00:17 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.790
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 432

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.48 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 183
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 428.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -9

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-04 04:00:17OBSERVATION2023276-966.7700648.0300857.400070001.481.48FF34.77006431.77006183428.23266075115 00.7904000659769516 41315220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:02FORECAST2023276-862.0643.77252.9160001.481.48FF30.06427.06184428.876173192300.63795169539111631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 12:00:02FORECAST2023276-863.17643.80853.4920001.481.48FF31.176428.176184428.876173192300.677508609495291631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 09:27:23FORECAST2023276-862.58244.0653.3210001.481.48FF30.582427.582184428.876173192300.656669295886281631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 08:00:01FORECAST2023276-862.4244.04253.23160.2799288001.481.48FF30.42427.42184452.8717323310927.2990757804510.65089881815534163131123.5DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:13FORECAST2023276-862.25843.84453.05160.373099001.481.48FF30.258427.258184452.9060495445827.3433417668540.64509325602763163131123.5DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:03FORECAST2023276-963.80645.03254.4190001.481.48FF31.806426.806183428.2326607511500.699016492900431641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:02FORECAST2023276-964.02243.73653.8790001.481.48FF32.022426.022183428.2326607511500.706239029050551641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2023276-963.21244.16853.690001.481.48FF31.212425.212183428.2326607511500.678754683439131631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:08FORECAST2023276-963.35644.16853.7620001.481.48FF31.356425.356183428.2326607511500.683718786800041631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:05FORECAST2023276-962.76243.77253.2670001.481.48FF30.762423.762183428.2326607511500.663038344279741631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 04:00:09FORECAST2023276-962.8744.2453.5550001.481.48FF30.87424.87183428.2326607511500.666837613509111631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2023276-962.63644.25853.4470001.481.48FF30.636424.636183428.2326607511500.658584785723331631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2023276-962.20445.08653.6450001.481.48FF30.204423.204183428.2326607511500.643150481156181631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 16:00:06FORECAST2023276-961.95244.8753.4110001.481.48FF29.952422.952183428.2326607511500.634035780568331631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2023276-961.66444.31252.9880001.481.48FF29.664422.664183428.2326607511500.623525891929491631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 08:00:04FORECAST2023276-962.5145.0553.780001.481.48FF30.51423.51183428.2326607511500.654109047206161631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 04:00:18FORECAST2023276-963.15843.82653.4920001.481.48FF31.158425.158183428.2326607511500.676884823386561631315217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023276-962.2443.59252.9160001.481.48FF30.24420.24183428.2326607511500.644446080342871631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 20:00:05FORECAST2023276-963.33844.1553.7440001.481.48FF31.338425.338183428.2326607511500.683100056027631631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 16:00:07FORECAST2023276-961.50244.29452.8980001.481.48FF29.502420.502183428.2326607511500.617573023379121631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023276-962.99644.653.7980001.481.48FF30.996422.996183428.2326607511500.671248542491821631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:06FORECAST2023276-963.17644.97854.0770001.481.48FF31.176426.176183428.2326607511500.677508609495291631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 04:00:10FORECAST2023276-963.33843.9753.6540001.481.48FF31.338423.338183428.2326607511500.683100056027631631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023276-963.80646.68855.2470001.481.48FF31.806418.806183428.2326607511500.699016492900431641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:04FORECAST2023276-964.446.97655.6880001.481.48FF32.4421.4183428.2326607511500.718681865835281641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:05FORECAST2023276-963.0546.50854.7790001.481.48FF31.05423.05183428.2326607511500.673131712487191631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023276-962.7845.35654.0680001.481.48FF30.78418.78183428.2326607511500.663672724435681631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023276-962.8746.52654.6980001.481.48FF30.87421.87183428.2326607511500.666837613509111631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:17FORECAST2023276-962.29444.36653.330001.481.48FF30.294417.294183428.2326607511500.646386351165371631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:04FORECAST2023276-963.51847.55255.5350001.511.51FF31.518419.518183428.2326607511500.689264083771161631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:05FORECAST2023276-963.2346.8555.040001.491.49FF31.23420.23183428.2326607511500.679376968321681631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 16:00:07FORECAST2023276-964.7646.00455.3820001.491.49FF32.76417.76183428.2326607511500.730290761171391641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023276-965.19246.455.7960001.491.49FF33.192419.192183428.2326607511500.74389768355451641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 08:00:07FORECAST2023276-965.62446.68856.1560001.521.52FF33.624420.624183428.2326607511500.757138173831921641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 04:00:15FORECAST2023276-964.70647.62456.1650001.491.49FF32.706412.706183428.2326607511500.728564815452961641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:06FORECAST2023276-967.96448.93858.4510001.531.53FF35.964420.964183428.2326607511500.822032584187771641315220DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023276-966.90248.5657.7310001.511.51FF34.902415.902183428.2326607511500.794049748618311641315220DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:08FORECAST2023276-965.6647.42656.5430001.521.52FF33.66414.66183428.2326607511500.758224605286911641315220DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:09FORECAST2023276-966.48846.5856.5340001.511.51FF34.488419.488183428.2326607511500.782471673110141641315220DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023276-966.39846.92256.660001.521.52FF34.398418.398183428.2326607511500.779905972339781641315220DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:07FORECAST2023276-966.39847.91257.15513.490724001.491.49FF34.398418.398183433.948073615125.85427369147330.77990597233978164131228DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:22FORECAST2023276-965.46246.25655.85913.508551066667001.481.48FF33.462416.462183433.955497313135.86210999611510.75221675805033164131228DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:09FORECAST2023276-966.09248.59657.3440001.591.59FF34.092419.092183428.2326607511500.771054119143861641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2023276-967.60451.8959.7470001.581.58FF35.604419.604183428.2326607511500.812826963097761641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:08FORECAST2023276-970.21448.2959.2520001.591.59FF38.214418.214183428.2326607511500.872974303896171651315145DRYM
2023-06-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023276-969.92649.53259.7290001.621.62FF37.926420.926183428.2326607511500.867086894631971651315145DRYM
2023-06-26 04:00:22FORECAST2023276-971.4250.01860.7190001.541.54FF39.42427.42183428.2326607511500.895653401399791651315145DRYM
2023-06-26 00:00:06FORECAST2023276-976.6457.77667.2080001.571.57FF44.64434.64183428.2326607511500.961015158369111651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 20:00:05FORECAST2023276-976.67657.7467.2080001.561.56FF44.676439.676183428.2326607511500.96130880442011651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023276-974.62454.64464.6340001.51.5FF42.624432.624183428.2326607511500.941470319096541651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 12:00:05FORECAST2023276-973.2252.66462.9420001.421.42FF41.22433.22183428.2326607511500.923828807221911651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023276-967.9151.56659.7380001.421.42FF35.91417.91183428.2326607511500.820670197418011641315220DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:11FORECAST2023276-976.15457.14666.650001.431.43FF44.154436.154183428.2326607511500.956871086478091651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 00:00:09FORECAST2023276-975.36256.8466.1010001.481.48FF43.362437.362183428.2326607511500.949364833311771651315145DRYM
2023-06-24 20:00:06FORECAST2023276-973.5855.79664.6880001.471.47FF41.58431.58183428.2326607511500.928696489602781651315145DRYM
2023-06-24 16:00:06FORECAST2023276-965.87644.5155.1930001.441.44FF33.876407.876183428.2326607511500.764687549785631641315220DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:06FORECAST2023276-965.89444.49255.1930001.421.42FF33.894417.894183428.2326607511500.765221796591721641315220DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:07FORECAST2023276-964.54444.654.5720001.411.41FF32.544400.544183428.2326607511500.723354229358341641315220DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:13FORECAST2023276-962.643.35852.9790001.491.49FF30.6395.6183428.2326607511500.657308242490391631215215DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:07FORECAST2023276-950.4542.846.6250001.481.48FF18.45392.45183428.2326607511500.221237559346881611215210DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023276-950.4542.45846.4540001.471.47FF18.45391.45183428.2326607511500.221237559346881611215210DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:06FORECAST2023276-950.97243.75447.3630001.531.53FF18.972400.972183428.2326607511500.236499654001341611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:10FORECAST2023276-948.9244.25846.5890001.511.51FF16.92390.92183428.2326607511500.17988467217751611215210DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:07FORECAST2023276-948.9244.25846.5890001.691.69FF16.92395.92183428.2326607511500.17988467217751611215210DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:26FORECAST2023276-943.21442.29642.7550001.441.44FF11.214388.214183428.2326607511500.0711180716355091611215210DRYL