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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 29, 2023

[ Friday, July 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 30, 2023 ]

DAY 302 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/30/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.339
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 592

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 209
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 17

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-30 04:00:11OBSERVATION20233021761.9599244.9299453.444930000.30.3FF29.95992591.95992209444.19430662083 00.3392458674792916 22415220DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20233021759.41442.5350.9720000.30.3FF27.414589.414210444.7772799049200.240817045160531612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20233021758.06442.27850.1710000.30.3FF26.064588.064210444.7772799049200.195712262931451612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:02FORECAST20233021757.90241.68449.7930000.30.3FF25.902587.902210444.7772799049200.190666565632411612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:10FORECAST20233021758.8242.87250.8460000.30.3FF26.82588.82210444.7772799049200.220308712919261612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:04FORECAST20233021760.49442.76451.6290000.30.3FF28.494587.494209444.1943066208300.280617351359551622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20233021760.09842.45851.2780000.30.3FF28.098591.098209444.1943066208300.265662263421311622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:04FORECAST20233021759.944.94252.4210000.30.3FF27.9590.9209444.1943066208300.258339077335981622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20233021760.74644.54652.6460000.30.3FF28.746591.746209444.1943066208300.290341405126441622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20233021761.0745.08653.0780000.30.3FF29.07592.07209444.1943066208300.303070399814281622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233021760.56644.09652.3310000.30.3FF28.566591.566209444.1943066208300.283379537604631622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:05FORECAST20233021759.68444.29451.9890000.30.3FF27.684586.684209444.1943066208300.25047096788881622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20233021759.57644.09651.8360000.30.3FF27.576586.576209444.1943066208300.246585000305941612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20233021759.93644.5152.2230000.30.3FF27.936587.936209444.1943066208300.259662753205381622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:03FORECAST20233021759.66644.1551.9080000.30.3FF27.666586.666209444.1943066208300.249821064185141622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20233021758.96444.36651.6650000.30.3FF26.964584.964209444.1943066208300.22518657219551612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:07FORECAST20233021759.37843.4351.4040000.30.3FF27.378585.378209444.1943066208300.239545304218031612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 00:00:06FORECAST20233021758.17243.66450.9180000.30.3FF26.172583.172209444.1943066208300.199120560602591612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20233021756.62443.10649.8650000.30.3FF24.624579.624209444.1943066208300.153705582797551612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:04FORECAST20233021759.1843.57451.3770000.30.3FF27.18586.18209444.1943066208300.232616598280511612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:04FORECAST20233021757.6542.54850.0990000.30.3FF25.65583.65209444.1943066208300.18297779346471612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 08:00:06FORECAST20233021757.66841.949.7840000.30.3FF25.668585.668209444.1943066208300.183520504294461612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 04:00:12FORECAST20233021757.99242.58450.2880000.30.3FF25.992585.992209444.1943066208300.193459821691021612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-26 00:00:05FORECAST20233021759.0942.850.9450000.240.24FF27.09587.09209444.1943066208300.229504338865061612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 20:00:05FORECAST20233021757.99241.9949.9910000.240.24FF25.992584.992209444.1943066208300.193459821691021612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 16:00:06FORECAST20233021759.8140.65850.2340000.240.24FF27.81585.81209444.1943066208300.255045229325541622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233021757.88441.86449.8740000.240.24FF25.884579.884209444.1943066208300.190110892882571612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 08:00:05FORECAST20233021758.0141.03649.5230000.240.24FF26.01582.01209444.1943066208300.194021447402521612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 04:00:08FORECAST20233021757.4743.1650.3150000.240.24FF25.47577.47209444.1943066208300.177605764248091612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233021761.91644.58253.2490000.320.32FF29.916588.916209444.1943066208300.337421700019961622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 20:00:04FORECAST20233021762.20444.40253.3030000.380.38FF30.204589.204209444.1943066208300.349451154844051622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 16:00:07FORECAST20233021763.62645.39254.5090000.350.35FF31.626589.626209444.1943066208300.410868173840981622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233021762.1545.53653.8430000.350.35FF30.15583.15209444.1943066208300.347183642586621622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 08:00:04FORECAST20233021760.54845.01452.7810000.360.36FF28.548580.548209444.1943066208300.282687771710741622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20233021760.54845.01452.7810000.360.36FF28.548580.548209444.1943066208300.282687771710741622415220DRYL
2023-07-24 00:00:06FORECAST20233021760.54845.01452.7810000.360.36FF28.548577.548209444.1943066208300.282687771710741622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 20:00:05FORECAST20233021760.54845.01452.7810000.360.36FF28.548576.548209444.1943066208300.282687771710741622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20233021760.54845.01452.7810000.360.36FF28.548576.548209444.1943066208300.282687771710741622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 12:00:04FORECAST20233021761.55644.5153.0330000.380.38FF29.556575.556209444.1943066208300.32261645625051622415220DRYL
2023-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20233021759.10842.92651.0170000.360.36FF27.108565.108209444.1943066208300.230124920934261612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-23 04:00:09FORECAST20233021759.32442.29650.810000.360.36FF27.324566.324209444.1943066208300.237644576339981612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-23 00:00:08FORECAST20233021758.58641.59450.090000.220.22FF26.586564.586209444.1943066208300.21251258931481612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-22 20:00:04FORECAST20233021758.58641.59450.090000.220.22FF26.586563.586209444.1943066208300.21251258931481612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233021759.73838.19248.9650000.150.15FF27.738562.738209444.1943066208300.25242603435041622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233021761.62840.44251.0350000.110.11FF29.628560.628209444.1943066208300.325556057593771622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 08:00:05FORECAST20233021762.6940.08251.3860000.140.14FF30.69559.69209444.1943066208300.37009211283531622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 04:00:11FORECAST20233021761.50241.52251.5120000.110.11FF29.502560.502209444.1943066208300.320418990086921622415220DRYL
2023-07-22 00:00:05FORECAST20233021757.72241.3649.5410000.130.13FF25.722559.722209444.1943066208300.185154634112981612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 20:00:08FORECAST20233021758.58643.48451.0350000.060.06FF26.586564.586209444.1943066208300.21251258931481612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-21 16:00:05FORECAST20233021761.10641.7251.4130000.070.07FF29.106573.106209444.1943066208300.304499999863941622415220DRYL
2023-07-21 12:00:06FORECAST20233021760.1742.1751.1700000FF28.17566.17209444.1943066208300.268351065912661622415220DRYL
2023-07-21 08:00:06FORECAST20233021760.56641.41450.9900000FF28.566571.566209444.1943066208300.283379537604631622415220DRYL
2023-07-21 04:00:12FORECAST20233021761.32241.68451.5030000.060.06FF29.322579.322209444.1943066208300.31313976890241622415220DRYL
2023-07-21 00:00:04FORECAST20233021758.4640.98249.7210000.020.02FF26.46569.46209444.1943066208300.208382176886681612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-20 20:00:08FORECAST20233021759.16240.53249.8470000.020.02FF27.162564.162209444.1943066208300.231992278965131612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-20 16:00:10FORECAST20233021763.55444.29453.9240000.010.01FF31.554577.554209444.1943066208300.407690873678851622415220DRYL
2023-07-20 12:00:09FORECAST20233021766.48845.98656.2370000.060.06FF34.488582.488209444.1943066208300.539712608854711632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 08:00:05FORECAST20233021766.5647.08456.8220000.060.06FF34.56589.56209444.1943066208300.542957086914241632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 04:00:11FORECAST20233021761.39441.91851.6560000.040.04FF29.394571.394209444.1943066208300.316042941777271622415220DRYL
2023-07-20 00:00:09FORECAST20233021749.22640.80245.01400000FF17.226563.226209444.1943066208300.0312334514861561612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-19 20:00:06FORECAST20233021749.2841.73845.50900000FF17.28567.28209444.1943066208300.031669389685311612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-19 16:00:06FORECAST20233021751.6244.20447.91200000FF19.62562.62209444.1943066208300.0559154647855171612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-19 12:00:05FORECAST20233021748.57842.94445.76100000FF16.578559.578209444.1943066208300.0263777705166651612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233021750.50443.50247.00300000FF18.504562.504209444.1943066208300.04297069809361612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-19 04:00:20FORECAST20233021746.5845.53646.05800000FF14.58569.58209444.1943066208300.0151903091914091612415217.5DRYL