Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 28, 2023

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DAY 301 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/29/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.41°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.63°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.347 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 30 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 590 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.31 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.31 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 208 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.61 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 16 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-29 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2023	301	16	62.40992	45.62996	54.01994	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	30.40992	590.40992	208	443.60911382386	0	0.34668391576931	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.468	41.234	50.351	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	27.468	587.468	209	444.19430662083	0	0.23683941671175	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	301	16	62.816	42.098	52.457	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	30.816	590.816	209	444.19430662083	0	0.36323841983318	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	301	16	63.05	42.404	52.727	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	31.05	591.05	209	444.19430662083	0	0.37289747843442	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	301	16	62.51	42.188	52.349	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	30.51	590.51	209	444.19430662083	0	0.35073819674955	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-28 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	62.024	42.818	52.421	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	30.024	587.024	208	443.60911382386	0	0.33121734163266	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.89	42.368	51.629	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	28.89	586.89	208	443.60911382386	0	0.28748331636326	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	301	16	61.52	42.26	51.89	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	29.52	587.52	208	443.60911382386	0	0.31144720032403	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	61.358	43.772	52.565	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	29.358	587.358	208	443.60911382386	0	0.30520268207885	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	61.286	44.096	52.691	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	29.286	586.286	208	443.60911382386	0	0.30244527601171	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-27 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	301	16	61.394	42.854	52.124	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	29.394	586.394	208	443.60911382386	0	0.30658555198343	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-27 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.476	42.872	51.674	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	28.476	585.476	208	443.60911382386	0	0.27222548034325	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.144	42.08	50.612	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	27.144	583.144	208	443.60911382386	0	0.22602614433083	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.872	42.116	51.494	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	28.872	586.872	208	443.60911382386	0	0.28681161511388	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.062	42.026	51.044	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	28.062	586.062	208	443.60911382386	0	0.25738069628742	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.278	42.17	51.224	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	28.278	588.278	208	443.60911382386	0	0.26507308363364	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-26 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.278	42.656	51.467	0	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	28.278	588.278	208	443.60911382386	0	0.26507308363364	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.972	41.99	50.981	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	27.972	587.972	208	443.60911382386	0	0.25421006857646	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.54	41.234	50.387	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	27.54	586.54	208	443.60911382386	0	0.23928035812786	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.234	41.738	50.486	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	27.234	586.234	208	443.60911382386	0	0.22900156786395	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.46	42.71	50.585	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	26.46	582.46	208	443.60911382386	0	0.20413816922001	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.424	42.98	50.702	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	26.424	584.424	208	443.60911382386	0	0.20302218665924	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.108	43.574	51.341	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	27.108	580.108	208	443.60911382386	0	0.22484211099029	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.378	42.008	50.693	0	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	27.378	587.378	208	443.60911382386	0	0.23380755965874	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.602	41.648	51.125	0	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	28.602	586.602	208	443.60911382386	0	0.2768263500167	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-24 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	301	16	61.232	42.476	51.854	0	0	0	0.36	0.36	F	F	29.232	586.232	208	443.60911382386	0	0.30038457541506	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.674	44.528	52.601	0	0	0	0.36	0.36	F	F	28.674	580.674	208	443.60911382386	0	0.27947238871726	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.81	41.702	50.756	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	27.81	579.81	208	443.60911382386	0	0.24855489654156	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.81	41.702	50.756	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	27.81	579.81	208	443.60911382386	0	0.24855489654156	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.81	41.702	50.756	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	27.81	576.81	208	443.60911382386	0	0.24855489654156	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.81	41.702	50.756	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	27.81	575.81	208	443.60911382386	0	0.24855489654156	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.81	41.702	50.756	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	27.81	575.81	208	443.60911382386	0	0.24855489654156	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.532	39.182	48.857	0	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	26.532	573.532	208	443.60911382386	0	0.20638104353146	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.334	37.292	47.813	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	26.334	566.334	208	443.60911382386	0	0.20024818282015	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	301	16	56.624	38.804	47.714	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	24.624	566.624	208	443.60911382386	0	0.15194694451574	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	301	16	57.866	40.226	49.046	0	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	25.866	565.866	208	443.60911382386	0	0.18619338862763	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	57.866	40.226	49.046	0	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	25.866	564.866	208	443.60911382386	0	0.18619338862763	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	54.95	40.856	47.903	0	0	0	0.16	0.16	F	F	22.95	562.95	208	443.60911382386	0	0.11282273362935	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	52.934	40.01	46.472	0	0	0	0.12	0.12	F	F	20.934	558.934	208	443.60911382386	0	0.07594952889232	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	53.168	38.642	45.905	0	0	0	0.15	0.15	F	F	21.168	557.168	208	443.60911382386	0	0.079688639399451	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	301	16	54.59	38.876	46.733	0	0	0	0.12	0.12	F	F	22.59	558.59	208	443.60911382386	0	0.10544213259879	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.496	39.56	49.028	0	0	0	0.14	0.14	F	F	26.496	562.496	208	443.60911382386	0	0.20525779002693	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.396	40.208	49.802	0	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	27.396	566.396	208	443.60911382386	0	0.23441220769844	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	59.54	39.902	49.721	0	0	0	0.08	0.08	F	F	27.54	571.54	208	443.60911382386	0	0.23928035812786	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.1	38.57	48.335	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	26.1	566.1	208	443.60911382386	0	0.19314291579379	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.172	38.516	48.344	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	26.172	571.172	208	443.60911382386	0	0.19531261836342	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	301	16	57.938	41.486	49.712	0	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	25.938	577.938	208	443.60911382386	0	0.18831505024495	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	56.588	43.862	50.225	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	24.588	570.588	208	443.60911382386	0	0.15102088853238	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	301	16	56.606	43.268	49.937	0	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	24.606	564.606	208	443.60911382386	0	0.15148344729679	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 16:00:10	FORECAST	2023	301	16	62.618	43.862	53.24	0	0	0	0.02	0.02	F	F	30.618	573.618	208	443.60911382386	0	0.35513244681447	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	301	16	64.13	46.904	55.517	0	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	32.13	576.13	208	443.60911382386	0	0.41842997690255	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	64.382	47.336	55.859	0	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	32.382	583.382	208	443.60911382386	0	0.42923832425736	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	301	16	57.452	42.026	49.739	0	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	25.452	570.452	208	443.60911382386	0	0.1742826453105	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 00:00:09	FORECAST	2023	301	16	57.776	41.828	49.802	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	25.776	573.776	208	443.60911382386	0	0.18356218958214	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	301	16	58.658	42.854	50.756	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	26.658	577.658	208	443.60911382386	0	0.21034095511872	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.872	37.562	49.217	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	28.872	570.872	208	443.60911382386	0	0.28681161511388	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	60.728	38.39	49.559	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	28.728	570.728	208	443.60911382386	0	0.281464935477	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	301	16	62.312	39.524	50.918	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	30.312	572.312	208	443.60911382386	0	0.34273404603039	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	301	16	66.218	40.208	53.213	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	34.218	583.218	208	443.60911382386	0	0.50907789792947	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	301	16	52.07	43.844	47.957	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	20.07	558.07	208	443.60911382386	0	0.063290088838327	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	301	16	48.92	42.134	45.527	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	16.92	552.92	208	443.60911382386	0	0.030463881807482	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	301	16	47.066	42.08	44.573	0	0	0	0.11	0.11	F	F	15.066	555.066	208	443.60911382386	0	0.018848695872791	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	44.672	39.488	42.08	0	0	0	0.12	0.12	F	F	12.672	555.672	208	443.60911382386	0	0.0095916993911792	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	301	16	44.672	39.488	42.08	0	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	12.672	550.672	208	443.60911382386	0	0.0095916993911792	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	301	16	46.922	45.302	46.112	0	0	0	0.12	0.12	F	F	14.922	562.922	208	443.60911382386	0	0.018130375876492	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L