Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 27, 2023

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DAY 300 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/28/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.51°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.36°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 28 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 582 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.23 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.31 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 207 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.02 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 15 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-28 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2023	300	15	60.20006	44.51	52.35503	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	28.20006	582.20006	207	443.02169306381	0	0.26787402764175	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.146	41.162	49.154	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	25.146	579.146	208	443.60911382386	0	0.17369130041629	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.56	41.396	49.478	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	25.56	579.56	208	443.60911382386	0	0.18506424681645	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-27 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.038	41.09	49.064	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	25.038	579.038	208	443.60911382386	0	0.17079898478	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-27 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.344	40.802	49.073	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	25.344	579.344	208	443.60911382386	0	0.17907408131765	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-27 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.838	40.838	49.838	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	26.838	578.838	207	443.02169306381	0	0.22298807984276	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-26 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	300	15	56.336	40.676	48.506	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	24.336	578.336	207	443.02169306381	0	0.15275393305566	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.848	42.044	49.946	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	25.848	579.848	207	443.02169306381	0	0.19324179625146	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.262	42.17	50.216	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	26.262	580.262	207	443.02169306381	0	0.20537552385003	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.982	42.224	50.603	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	26.982	581.982	207	443.02169306381	0	0.22752173987668	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-26 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.91	41.936	50.423	0	0	0.08	0.23	0.31	F	F	26.91	581.91	207	443.02169306381	0	0.22524846105015	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	59	42.224	50.612	0	0	0.02	0.23	0.25	F	F	27	582	207	443.02169306381	0	0.22809206826731	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.532	41.468	50	0	0	0.02	0.23	0.25	F	F	26.532	580.532	207	443.02169306381	0	0.21352658435559	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.874	41.522	50.198	0	0	0.02	0.23	0.25	F	F	26.874	580.874	207	443.02169306381	0	0.22411665478933	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.442	41.306	49.874	0	0	0.02	0.23	0.25	F	F	26.442	578.442	207	443.02169306381	0	0.21078887894467	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	58.334	40.766	49.55	0	0	0.02	0.23	0.25	F	F	26.334	580.334	207	443.02169306381	0	0.20753090758873	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.488	40.856	49.172	0	0	0.02	0.23	0.25	F	F	25.488	575.488	207	443.02169306381	0	0.18305386846994	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	300	15	59.594	41.234	50.414	0	0	0.07	0.26	0.33	F	F	27.594	581.594	207	443.02169306381	0	0.24735691035306	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	60.332	40.784	50.558	0	0	0.07	0.32	0.39	F	F	28.332	580.332	207	443.02169306381	0	0.27245145888866	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	300	15	60.062	40.514	50.288	0	0	0.04	0.32	0.36	F	F	28.062	579.062	207	443.02169306381	0	0.26312605149354	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	59.216	40.91	50.063	0	0	0.04	0.32	0.36	F	F	27.216	574.216	207	443.02169306381	0	0.23499827660297	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.814	40.172	47.993	0	0	0.03	0.34	0.37	F	F	23.814	573.814	207	443.02169306381	0	0.14018438171459	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.814	40.172	47.993	0	0	0.03	0.34	0.37	F	F	23.814	573.814	207	443.02169306381	0	0.14018438171459	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-24 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.814	40.172	47.993	0	0	0.03	0.34	0.37	F	F	23.814	570.814	207	443.02169306381	0	0.14018438171459	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.814	40.172	47.993	0	0	0.03	0.34	0.37	F	F	23.814	569.814	207	443.02169306381	0	0.14018438171459	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.814	40.172	47.993	0	0	0.03	0.34	0.37	F	F	23.814	569.814	207	443.02169306381	0	0.14018438171459	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	53.69	39.47	46.58	0	0	0.03	0.36	0.39	F	F	21.69	568.69	207	443.02169306381	0	0.096361251416219	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	51.386	37.742	44.564	0	0	0.01	0.36	0.37	F	F	19.386	562.386	207	443.02169306381	0	0.061198427855633	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	300	15	52.916	38.138	45.527	0	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	20.916	563.916	207	443.02169306381	0	0.083193311769744	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-23 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	300	15	54.734	38.57	46.652	0	0	0.02	0.21	0.23	F	F	22.734	561.734	207	443.02169306381	0	0.11645491574137	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	54.734	38.57	46.652	0	0	0.02	0.21	0.23	F	F	22.734	560.734	207	443.02169306381	0	0.11645491574137	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.686	39.956	48.821	0	0	0.02	0.14	0.16	F	F	25.686	561.686	207	443.02169306381	0	0.18861518716318	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	54.536	40.514	47.525	0	0	0.02	0.1	0.12	F	F	22.536	559.536	207	443.02169306381	0	0.11243255674707	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	54.644	39.542	47.093	0	0	0.02	0.13	0.15	F	F	22.644	557.644	207	443.02169306381	0	0.1146141310619	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	300	15	54.374	40.064	47.219	0	0	0.05	0.07	0.12	F	F	22.374	558.374	207	443.02169306381	0	0.10921590807753	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-22 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.436	40.838	48.137	0	0	0.09	0.05	0.14	F	F	23.436	558.436	207	443.02169306381	0	0.13153204817481	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.382	41.126	48.254	0	0	0.04	0.03	0.07	F	F	23.382	561.382	207	443.02169306381	0	0.1303266731323	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.868	40.532	48.2	0	0	0.06	0.02	0.08	F	F	23.868	565.868	207	443.02169306381	0	0.1414511990701	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	55.49	39.326	47.408	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	23.49	562.49	207	443.02169306381	0	0.13274507365648	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	56.66	39.398	48.029	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	24.66	566.66	207	443.02169306381	0	0.16091966612322	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	300	15	59.666	42.494	51.08	0	0	0.02	0.05	0.07	F	F	27.666	573.666	207	443.02169306381	0	0.24974965224593	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	62.51	43.808	53.159	0	0	0.02	0.01	0.03	F	F	30.51	567.51	207	443.02169306381	0	0.35309884188706	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	300	15	62.42	42.8	52.61	0	0	0.02	0.01	0.03	F	F	30.42	562.42	207	443.02169306381	0	0.34959754627322	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 16:00:09	FORECAST	2023	300	15	60.062	41.864	50.963	0	0	0.01	0.01	0.02	F	F	28.062	565.062	207	443.02169306381	0	0.26312605149354	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	300	15	62.564	41.828	52.196	0	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	30.564	565.564	207	443.02169306381	0	0.35520562428866	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	62.852	42.746	52.799	0	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	30.852	572.852	207	443.02169306381	0	0.36651523037617	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	300	15	59.846	43.268	51.557	0	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	27.846	566.846	207	443.02169306381	0	0.25578479021683	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 00:00:09	FORECAST	2023	300	15	60.872	43.07	51.971	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	28.872	569.872	207	443.02169306381	0	0.29158053363705	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	61.934	44.474	53.204	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	29.934	572.934	207	443.02169306381	0	0.33091730223085	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	300	15	56.786	41.162	48.974	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	24.786	563.786	207	443.02169306381	0	0.16417059743631	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.362	41.684	49.523	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	25.362	564.362	207	443.02169306381	0	0.17956856337556	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.92	43.124	50.522	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	25.92	563.92	207	443.02169306381	0	0.19532006219236	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	300	15	56.624	42.962	49.793	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	24.624	570.624	207	443.02169306381	0	0.15999858012509	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	300	15	59.126	44.438	51.782	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	27.126	560.126	207	443.02169306381	0	0.23210676304586	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	300	15	57.938	42.782	50.36	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	25.938	557.938	207	443.02169306381	0	0.19584173822234	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	300	15	61.124	44.006	52.565	0	0	0.04	0.07	0.11	F	F	29.124	562.124	207	443.02169306381	0	0.30071651961562	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-18 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	62.672	43.196	52.934	0	0	0.05	0.07	0.12	F	F	30.672	564.672	207	443.02169306381	0	0.35943242942688	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-18 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	63.896	43.232	53.564	0	0	0.05	0.08	0.13	F	F	31.896	559.896	207	443.02169306381	0	0.40842483108352	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-18 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	300	15	65.894	42.368	54.131	0	0	0.05	0.07	0.12	F	F	33.894	569.894	207	443.02169306381	0	0.49120688211584	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-18 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	52.034	40.658	46.346	0	0	0.02	0.05	0.07	F	F	20.034	558.034	207	443.02169306381	0	0.069886561576185	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-17 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	300	15	53.024	40.658	46.841	0	0	0.04	0.06	0.1	F	F	21.024	572.024	207	443.02169306381	0	0.084945155283824	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-17 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	300	15	52.718	46.562	49.64	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	20.718	599.718	207	443.02169306381	0	0.080052133962195	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 12:00:10	FORECAST	2023	300	15	50.18	46.58	48.38	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	18.18	602.18	207	443.02169306381	0	0.047291835038434	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 08:00:09	FORECAST	2023	300	15	50.18	46.58	48.38	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	18.18	589.18	207	443.02169306381	0	0.047291835038434	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	300	15	53.798	51.71	52.754	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	F	F	21.798	583.798	207	443.02169306381	0	0.098313728258264	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L