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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 25, 2023

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DAY 298 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/26/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 54.85°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 41.33°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 48.09°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.121 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 23 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 597 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.08 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.30 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.54 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 205 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.84 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 13 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 2 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 35.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-26 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2023	298	13	54.84992	41.32994	48.08993	0.080000000000041	0.30000000000004	0.24	0.54000000000004	F	F	22.84992	596.84992	205	441.84013369272	0.12132638932428	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-26 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	298	13	55.292	40.46	47.876	0.01574804	0.23574804	0.24	0.47574804	F	F	23.292	597.292	206	442.43203585831	0.13160666758615	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.996	40.244	47.12	0.01574804	0.23574804	0.24	0.47574804	F	F	21.996	595.996	206	442.43203585831	0.10309266521634	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	298	13	54.518	40.064	47.291	0.01574804	0.23574804	0.24	0.47574804	F	F	22.518	596.518	206	442.43203585831	0.11398723159621	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.934	38.966	45.95	0.01574804	0.23574804	0.24	0.47574804	F	F	20.934	594.934	206	442.43203585831	0.08329402828484	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	298	13	54.59	39.596	47.093	0.07480319	0.32480319	0.24	0.56480319	F	F	22.59	596.59	205	441.84013369272	0.11555182829183	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	298	13	55.472	38.786	47.129	0.07086618	0.38086618	0.24	0.62086618	F	F	23.472	595.472	205	441.84013369272	0.13595943171357	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	54.554	38.444	46.499	0.03543309	0.34543309	0.24	0.58543309	F	F	22.554	594.554	205	441.84013369272	0.11476763897721	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.312	40.802	47.057	0.03543309	0.34543309	0.24	0.58543309	F	F	21.312	593.312	205	441.84013369272	0.089985790362793	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.6	39.272	46.436	0.03149608	0.36149608	0.24	0.60149608	F	F	21.6	595.6	205	441.84013369272	0.095345595350705	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.6	39.272	46.436	0.03149608	0.36149608	0.24	0.60149608	F	F	21.6	595.6	205	441.84013369272	0.095345595350705	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-24 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.6	39.272	46.436	0.03149608	0.36149608	0.24	0.60149608	F	F	21.6	592.6	205	441.84013369272	0.095345595350705	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.6	39.272	46.436	0.03149608	0.36149608	0.24	0.60149608	F	F	21.6	591.6	205	441.84013369272	0.095345595350705	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.6	39.272	46.436	0.03149608	0.36149608	0.24	0.60149608	F	F	21.6	591.6	205	441.84013369272	0.095345595350705	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.69	38.498	46.094	0.03149608	0.38149608	0.24	0.62149608	F	F	21.69	591.69	205	441.84013369272	0.097067640823325	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.628	38.372	45.5	0.01181103	0.36181103	0.24	0.60181103	F	F	20.628	589.628	205	441.84013369272	0.078155690520572	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.466	38.174	45.32	0	0.36	0.24	0.6	F	F	20.466	590.466	205	441.84013369272	0.075534269448268	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-23 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	298	13	54.554	40.118	47.336	0.02362206	0.22362206	0.24	0.46362206	F	F	22.554	584.554	205	441.84013369272	0.11476763897721	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	54.554	40.118	47.336	0.02362206	0.22362206	0.24	0.46362206	F	F	22.554	583.554	205	441.84013369272	0.11476763897721	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.502	39.992	46.247	0.02362206	0.15362206	0.24	0.39362206	F	F	20.502	582.502	205	441.84013369272	0.076110958725578	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.7	40.784	46.742	0.02362206	0.11362206	0.24	0.35362206	F	F	20.7	582.7	205	441.84013369272	0.079342605362068	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.664	39.776	46.22	0.01968505	0.13968505	0.24	0.37968505	F	F	20.664	581.664	205	441.84013369272	0.078747459248101	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	298	13	51.944	39.902	45.923	0.04724412	0.10724412	0.24	0.34724412	F	F	19.944	582.944	205	441.84013369272	0.067540794577829	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.232	40.154	46.193	0.09055123	0.13055123	0.24	0.37055123	F	F	20.232	581.232	205	441.84013369272	0.071866376732053	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-21 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.33	39.992	46.661	0.04330711	0.06330711	0.24	0.30330711	F	F	21.33	583.33	205	441.84013369272	0.090314099007319	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.852	40.46	47.156	0.05511814	0.06511814	0.24	0.30511814	F	F	21.852	586.852	205	441.84013369272	0.10022446319053	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	52.394	41.288	46.841	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	20.394	585.394	205	441.84013369272	0.074390853891839	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.87	42.206	48.038	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	21.87	586.87	205	441.84013369272	0.10057977958329	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	298	13	55.886	39.38	47.633	0.01574804	0.05574804	0.24	0.29574804	F	F	23.886	589.886	205	441.84013369272	0.14634042084912	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	55.832	41.414	48.623	0.02362206	0.02362206	0.24	0.26362206	F	F	23.832	581.832	205	441.84013369272	0.14495706789935	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.438	41.45	47.444	0.02362206	0.02362206	0.24	0.26362206	F	F	21.438	577.438	205	441.84013369272	0.092302588138899	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	298	13	55.04	41.504	48.272	0.00787402	0.00787402	0.24	0.24787402	F	F	23.04	583.04	205	441.84013369272	0.12567542613527	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	298	13	57.02	40.064	48.542	0	0.06	0.24	0.3	F	F	25.02	580.02	205	441.84013369272	0.177429449123	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	57.812	41.594	49.703	0	0.06	0.24	0.3	F	F	25.812	585.812	205	441.84013369272	0.2014390718876	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	298	13	56.39	43.394	49.892	0	0.04	0.24	0.28	F	F	24.39	583.39	205	441.84013369272	0.15967715569357	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	298	13	57.758	43.952	50.855	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	25.758	582.758	205	441.84013369272	0.19974281184353	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	298	13	59.18	44.42	51.8	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	27.18	584.18	205	441.84013369272	0.24721194835758	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	298	13	58.748	43.448	51.098	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	26.748	580.748	205	441.84013369272	0.23218624608717	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	56.588	40.46	48.524	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	24.588	579.588	205	441.84013369272	0.16512707594696	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	56.984	40.676	48.83	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	24.984	579.984	205	441.84013369272	0.17638273321453	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	298	13	60.332	42.314	51.323	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	28.332	586.332	205	441.84013369272	0.28968796125206	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	298	13	57.128	43.196	50.162	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	25.128	574.128	205	441.84013369272	0.18059300726774	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	298	13	57.398	42.89	50.144	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	25.398	574.398	205	441.84013369272	0.18865509713772	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	53.888	42.512	48.2	0.03543309	0.09543309	0.24	0.33543309	F	F	21.888	575.888	205	441.84013369272	0.10093601100453	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	54.176	40.766	47.471	0.04724412	0.10724412	0.24	0.34724412	F	F	22.176	578.176	205	441.84013369272	0.10676087688836	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-18 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	298	13	54.644	39.74	47.192	0.04724412	0.11724412	0.24	0.35724412	F	F	22.644	571.644	205	441.84013369272	0.11673521540472	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-18 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	298	13	58.514	39.182	48.848	0.04724412	0.10724412	0.24	0.34724412	F	F	26.514	574.514	205	441.84013369272	0.22426410950493	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-07-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	60.89	43.358	52.124	0.02362206	0.06362206	0.24	0.30362206	F	F	28.89	575.89	205	441.84013369272	0.31142348016247	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	298	13	63.968	44.204	54.086	0.03543309	0.08543309	0.24	0.32543309	F	F	31.968	585.968	205	441.84013369272	0.44148466262044	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	71.528	49.676	60.602	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	39.528	610.528	205	441.84013369272	0.75779560247063	16	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-07-17 12:00:09	FORECAST	2023	298	13	74.012	51.962	62.987	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	42.012	615.012	205	441.84013369272	0.83582673278584	16	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-07-17 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	298	13	71.438	51.512	61.475	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	39.438	604.438	205	441.84013369272	0.7546358610443	16	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-07-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	298	13	64.562	47.462	56.012	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	32.562	592.562	205	441.84013369272	0.4678391530203	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	62.114	47.012	54.563	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	30.114	594.114	205	441.84013369272	0.36137791580457	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-16 20:00:09	FORECAST	2023	298	13	61.79	46.544	54.167	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	29.79	583.79	205	441.84013369272	0.34787892129174	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	64.418	47.876	56.147	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	32.418	588.418	205	441.84013369272	0.46143275644404	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-16 12:00:09	FORECAST	2023	298	13	66.056	48.164	57.11	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	34.056	591.056	205	441.84013369272	0.53449059880676	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	66.002	48.848	57.425	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	34.002	591.002	205	441.84013369272	0.53208709655515	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	298	13	64.796	45.878	55.337	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	32.796	588.796	205	441.84013369272	0.4782665992444	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-16 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	298	13	51.152	44.762	47.957	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	19.152	554.152	205	441.84013369272	0.056677423055138	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-15 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	298	13	50.09	41.144	45.617	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	18.09	548.09	205	441.84013369272	0.044320642154108	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	298	13	47.138	41.288	44.213	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	15.138	547.138	205	441.84013369272	0.020942153243326	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-15 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	298	13	50.774	47.084	48.929	0	0	0.29	0.29	F	F	18.774	546.774	205	441.84013369272	0.052001196337722	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	298	13	50.774	47.084	48.929	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	18.774	537.774	205	441.84013369272	0.052001196337722	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	298	13	51.692	51.692	51.692	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	19.692	538.692	205	441.84013369272	0.063922885322504	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L