Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 24, 2023

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DAY 297 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/25/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.23°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.93°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.58°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.088 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 20 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 613 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.22 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.46 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 204 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.25 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 12 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 5 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-25 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2023	297	12	52.23002	46.92992	49.57997	0	0.22000000000003	0.22000000000003	0.24	0.46000000000003	F	F	20.23002	613.23002	204	441.24597801994	0	0.087705075131035	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-25 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	297	12	52.07	43.988	48.029	0	0.25196864	0.25196864	0.24	0.49196864	F	F	20.07	613.07	205	441.84013369272	0	0.084867896545171	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	297	12	50.27	43.43	46.85	0	0.31102379	0.31102379	0.24	0.55102379	F	F	18.27	611.27	205	441.84013369272	0	0.057515806967384	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.746	43.646	47.696	0	0.33464585	0.33464585	0.24	0.57464585	F	F	19.746	612.746	205	441.84013369272	0	0.079334218578763	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.746	43.646	47.696	0	0.33464585	0.33464585	0.24	0.57464585	F	F	19.746	612.746	205	441.84013369272	0	0.079334218578763	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-24 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.746	43.646	47.696	0	0.33464585	0.33464585	0.24	0.57464585	F	F	19.746	609.746	204	441.24597801994	0	0.079334218578763	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.746	43.646	47.696	0	0.33464585	0.33464585	0.24	0.57464585	F	F	19.746	608.746	204	441.24597801994	0	0.079334218578763	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-23 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.746	43.646	47.696	0	0.33464585	0.33464585	0.24	0.57464585	F	F	19.746	608.746	204	441.24597801994	0	0.079334218578763	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	52.448	43.772	48.11	0	0.3543309	0.3543309	0.24	0.5943309	F	F	20.448	609.448	204	441.24597801994	0	0.091682543224334	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	297	12	50.954	43.016	46.985	0	0.34645688	0.34645688	0.24	0.58645688	F	F	18.954	607.954	204	441.24597801994	0	0.06695755980951	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.566	42.566	47.066	0	0.35826791	0.35826791	0.24	0.59826791	F	F	19.566	608.566	204	441.24597801994	0	0.076379946065544	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-23 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	297	12	50.846	41.45	46.148	0	0.1968505	0.1968505	0.24	0.4368505	F	F	18.846	600.846	204	441.24597801994	0	0.065392033837332	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	297	12	50.846	41.45	46.148	0	0.1968505	0.1968505	0.24	0.4368505	F	F	18.846	599.846	204	441.24597801994	0	0.065392033837332	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	297	12	50.81	41.648	46.229	0	0.13385834	0.13385834	0.24	0.37385834	F	F	18.81	600.81	204	441.24597801994	0	0.064876527576283	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.998	42.692	47.345	0	0.09448824	0.09448824	0.24	0.33448824	F	F	19.998	600.998	204	441.24597801994	0	0.083613928130054	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	50.738	42.188	46.463	0	0.12204731	0.12204731	0.24	0.36204731	F	F	18.738	599.738	204	441.24597801994	0	0.063854954043005	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-07-22 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.782	42.062	46.922	0	0.06299216	0.06299216	0.24	0.30299216	F	F	19.782	601.782	204	441.24597801994	0	0.079935282178538	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	52.574	42.692	47.633	0	0.03543309	0.03543309	0.24	0.27543309	F	F	20.574	599.574	204	441.24597801994	0	0.094041579764302	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-21 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	297	12	52.556	42.674	47.615	0	0.02362206	0.02362206	0.24	0.26362206	F	F	20.556	600.556	204	441.24597801994	0	0.093701868050476	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	54.068	41.63	47.849	0	0.00787402	0.00787402	0.24	0.24787402	F	F	22.068	604.068	204	441.24597801994	0	0.12547793975195	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	54.158	41.684	47.921	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	22.158	604.158	204	441.24597801994	0	0.12758129053082	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	55.04	41.684	48.362	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	23.04	604.04	204	441.24597801994	0	0.14948895462115	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	297	12	55.706	42.044	48.875	0	0.04330711	0.04330711	0.24	0.28330711	F	F	23.706	604.706	204	441.24597801994	0	0.1676015621023	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	53.978	41.954	47.966	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	21.978	596.978	204	441.24597801994	0	0.1233988390125	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	52.178	41.414	46.796	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	20.178	595.178	204	441.24597801994	0	0.086775119083278	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	297	12	54.968	42.782	48.875	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	22.968	598.968	204	441.24597801994	0	0.14761197271374	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	297	12	51.89	40.964	46.427	0	0.06299216	0.06299216	0.24	0.30299216	F	F	19.89	593.89	204	441.24597801994	0	0.081759063528724	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	53.33	41.882	47.606	0	0.06299216	0.06299216	0.24	0.30299216	F	F	21.33	599.33	204	441.24597801994	0	0.10913836757363	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-20 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	297	12	53.906	43.466	48.686	0	0.04330711	0.04330711	0.24	0.28330711	F	F	21.906	597.906	204	441.24597801994	0	0.1217529722329	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-20 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	297	12	56.192	43.196	49.694	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	24.192	596.192	204	441.24597801994	0	0.18167285627272	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	56.912	44.312	50.612	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	24.912	595.912	204	441.24597801994	0	0.20383098578675	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	56.12	43.358	49.739	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	24.12	593.12	204	441.24597801994	0	0.17954291831563	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	57.488	42.638	50.063	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	25.488	594.488	204	441.24597801994	0	0.22266355908158	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	56.786	42.422	49.604	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	24.786	593.786	204	441.24597801994	0	0.19984136182711	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-19 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	297	12	58.514	43.556	51.035	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	26.514	596.514	204	441.24597801994	0	0.25854387060202	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-19 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	56.696	41.954	49.325	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	24.696	587.696	204	441.24597801994	0	0.19702053946117	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	55.958	41.972	48.965	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	23.958	587.958	204	441.24597801994	0	0.17480809171022	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	57.812	40.622	49.217	0	0.06299216	0.06299216	0.24	0.30299216	F	F	25.812	592.812	204	441.24597801994	0	0.23367769546776	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	58.388	41.54	49.964	0	0.06299216	0.06299216	0.24	0.30299216	F	F	26.388	595.388	204	441.24597801994	0	0.2539821804406	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	56.84	41.162	49.001	0	0.06692917	0.06692917	0.24	0.30692917	F	F	24.84	587.84	204	441.24597801994	0	0.20154542982028	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	297	12	55.454	41.126	48.29	0	0.05511814	0.05511814	0.24	0.29511814	F	F	23.454	587.454	204	441.24597801994	0	0.1605887838407	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	60.17	43.43	51.8	0	0.0393701	0.0393701	0.24	0.2793701	F	F	28.17	586.17	204	441.24597801994	0	0.32217516117634	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	297	12	62.024	42.386	52.205	0	0.05118113	0.05118113	0.24	0.29118113	F	F	30.024	593.024	204	441.24597801994	0	0.4000728244233	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	68.018	44.834	56.426	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	36.018	610.018	204	441.24597801994	0	0.66305151566107	16	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-17 12:00:09	FORECAST	2023	297	12	68.702	46.652	57.677	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	36.702	611.702	204	441.24597801994	0	0.69065838231797	16	3	2	5	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-17 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	297	12	66.812	48.452	57.632	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	34.812	603.812	204	441.24597801994	0	0.61225519090247	16	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-07-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	297	12	64.436	46.454	55.445	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	32.436	599.436	204	441.24597801994	0	0.50719867164957	16	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	65.876	46.112	55.994	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	33.876	602.876	204	441.24597801994	0	0.57140727552158	16	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-07-16 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	297	12	64.868	46.4	55.634	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	32.868	592.868	204	441.24597801994	0	0.52655756419713	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	67.118	46.634	56.876	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	35.118	595.118	204	441.24597801994	0	0.62536740583945	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	297	12	65.462	47.228	56.345	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	33.462	596.462	204	441.24597801994	0	0.55306471396797	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	65.426	46.814	56.12	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	33.426	596.426	204	441.24597801994	0	0.5514637465814	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	297	12	65.066	45.32	55.193	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	33.066	595.066	204	441.24597801994	0	0.53541222867328	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-16 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	63.59	44.51	54.05	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	31.59	573.59	204	441.24597801994	0	0.46928061070247	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-15 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	62.42	44.024	53.222	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	30.42	569.42	204	441.24597801994	0	0.41736757135333	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	64.328	44.078	54.203	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	32.328	571.328	204	441.24597801994	0	0.50235451180707	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-15 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	297	12	61.862	44.474	53.168	0	0	0	0.29	0.29	F	F	29.862	566.862	204	441.24597801994	0	0.39305174767206	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	61.52	42.746	52.133	0	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.52	557.52	204	441.24597801994	0	0.37834572622824	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	297	12	64.922	41.396	53.159	0	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.922	557.922	204	441.24597801994	0	0.52897395990076	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	43.934	35.456	39.695	0	0	0	0.27	0.27	F	F	11.934	542.934	204	441.24597801994	0	0.010954490783251	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	297	12	44.672	40.856	42.764	0	0	0	0.28	0.28	F	F	12.672	546.672	204	441.24597801994	0	0.013607128045164	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-14 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	297	12	45.59	39.164	42.377	0	0	0	0.29	0.29	F	F	13.59	539.59	204	441.24597801994	0	0.017663712875416	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	297	12	46.22	40.892	43.556	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	14.22	557.22	204	441.24597801994	0	0.02100887056007	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-14 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	297	12	48.056	43.016	45.536	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	16.056	563.056	204	441.24597801994	0	0.033935184200444	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-14 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	297	12	44.798	44.024	44.411	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	12.798	555.798	204	441.24597801994	0	0.014111412304262	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L