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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 22, 2023

[ Friday, July 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 23, 2023 ]

DAY 295 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/23/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.698
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 638

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 202
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-23 04:00:06OBSERVATION20232951068.9199847.8900458.405010000.240.24FF36.91998637.91998202440.0508718017 00.6979136955598616 32515150DRYMH
2023-07-23 00:00:04FORECAST20232951064.11246.65255.3820000.240.24FF32.112633.112203440.6495602603600.503857349473871632515225DRYL
2023-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20232951062.88846.43654.6620000.240.24FF30.888631.888203440.6495602603600.452303901950371622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 08:00:02FORECAST20232951063.03245.5954.3110000.240.24FF31.032632.032203440.6495602603600.458344241270641622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-22 04:00:09FORECAST20232951064.0446.59855.3190000.240.24FF32.04633.04203440.6495602603600.500818132324561632515225DRYL
2023-07-22 00:00:03FORECAST20232951063.5947.1255.3550000.240.24FF31.59629.59202440.050871801700.481828941227411622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-21 20:00:04FORECAST20232951063.3246.52654.9230000.240.24FF31.32630.32202440.050871801700.470452432215521622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20232951064.56246.50855.5350000.240.24FF32.562631.562202440.050871801700.522840396701331632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 12:00:02FORECAST20232951064.7647.76856.2640000.240.24FF32.76631.76202440.050871801700.531179091013381632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20232951064.97646.95855.9670000.240.24FF32.976631.976202440.050871801700.540260149075471632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 04:00:10FORECAST20232951064.74247.67856.210000.240.24FF32.742631.742202440.050871801700.530421537549491632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST20232951064.07648.1156.0930000.240.24FF32.076627.076202440.050871801700.502337757859121632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 20:00:04FORECAST20232951064.23847.42655.8320000.240.24FF32.238627.238202440.050871801700.50917533472161632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 16:00:07FORECAST20232951064.05847.19255.6250000.240.24FF32.058628.058202440.050871801700.501577947953781632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 12:00:05FORECAST20232951063.10447.26455.1840000.240.24FF31.104627.104202440.050871801700.461368110647781622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST20232951063.53647.89455.7150000.240.24FF31.536629.536202440.050871801700.47955215739911622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 04:00:09FORECAST20232951062.9647.55255.2560000.240.24FF30.96627.96202440.050871801700.455322780613221622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-20 00:00:06FORECAST20232951063.55447.69655.6250000.240.24FF31.554624.554202440.050871801700.480311014895461622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST20232951063.46448.32655.8950000.240.24FF31.464623.464202440.050871801700.476517495933221622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 16:00:05FORECAST20232951063.17647.71455.4450000.240.24FF31.176622.176202440.050871801700.464394215048821622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 12:00:04FORECAST20232951062.79846.63454.7160000.240.24FF30.798621.798202440.050871801700.44853419779271622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20232951062.72646.61654.6710000.240.24FF30.726621.726202440.050871801700.445521759769581622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 04:00:18FORECAST20232951061.98846.83254.410000.240.24FF29.988621.988202440.050871801700.414855617836741622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-19 00:00:04FORECAST20232951061.8846.07653.9780000.240.24FF29.88617.88202440.050871801700.410406487757541622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 20:00:05FORECAST20232951061.17846.8554.0140000.240.24FF29.178619.178202440.050871801700.3817916630541622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20232951062.45647.33654.8960000.240.24FF30.456622.456202440.050871801700.434254494676161622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 12:00:04FORECAST20232951063.42846.56254.9950000.240.24FF31.428624.428202440.050871801700.475000664718661622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 08:00:04FORECAST20232951063.2346.77855.0040000.240.24FF31.23619.23202440.050871801700.466665155373891622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 04:00:18FORECAST20232951063.17646.92255.0490000.240.24FF31.176620.176202440.050871801700.464394215048821622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-18 00:00:04FORECAST20232951062.11446.50854.3110000.240.24FF30.114612.114202440.050871801700.420060065369531622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 20:00:06FORECAST20232951062.72646.4954.6080000.240.24FF30.726616.726202440.050871801700.445521759769581622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 16:00:04FORECAST20232951064.3148.1156.210000.240.24FF32.31626.31202440.050871801700.512213511950011632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 12:00:08FORECAST20232951063.24846.8555.0490000.240.24FF31.248626.248202440.050871801700.467422380387141622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 08:00:06FORECAST20232951062.56446.99454.7790000.240.24FF30.564620.564202440.050871801700.43875552236111622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 04:00:10FORECAST20232951061.50246.56254.0320000.240.24FF29.502619.502202440.050871801700.394928667815821622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-17 00:00:04FORECAST20232951064.83248.7456.7860000.240.24FF32.832621.832202440.050871801700.53420814890381632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 20:00:07FORECAST20232951064.29247.55255.9220000.240.24FF32.292613.292202440.050871801700.511454027195641632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 16:00:04FORECAST20232951063.30247.5755.4360000.240.24FF31.302612.302202440.050871801700.469694751952761622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 12:00:08FORECAST20232951063.6848.77656.2280000.240.24FF31.68611.68202440.050871801700.485624861651331622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 08:00:03FORECAST20232951063.30248.18255.7420000.240.24FF31.302612.302202440.050871801700.469694751952761622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 04:00:11FORECAST20232951063.53647.10255.3190000.240.24FF31.536613.536202440.050871801700.47955215739911622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 00:00:04FORECAST20232951059.93646.81453.3750000.240.24FF27.936595.936202440.050871801700.3327990251671622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 20:00:05FORECAST20232951058.96445.55452.2590000.240.24FF26.964593.964202440.050871801700.296307629154361622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST20232951063.24847.82255.5350000.240.24FF31.248593.248202440.050871801700.467422380387141622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:06FORECAST20232951059.39643.46651.4310000.290.29FF27.396591.396202440.050871801700.312301508262361622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 08:00:04FORECAST20232951058.15441.95450.0540000.30.3FF26.154584.154202440.050871801700.267377161053761622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 04:00:11FORECAST20232951059.79242.5351.1610000.30.3FF27.792581.792202440.050871801700.327280700238691622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:04FORECAST20232951062.56445.53654.050000.270.27FF30.564586.564202440.050871801700.43875552236111622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 20:00:04FORECAST20232951062.20445.03253.6180000.280.28FF30.204589.204202440.050871801700.423786160024971622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 16:00:04FORECAST20232951059.16243.7951.476000.030.260.29FF27.162580.162202440.050871801700.303591675274151622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST20232951061.50244.52853.0150000.240.24FF29.502589.502202440.050871801700.394928667815821622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:08FORECAST20232951063.78846.455.0940000.240.24FF31.788593.788202440.050871801700.490181655884031622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:10FORECAST20232951064.79646.74255.7690000.240.24FF32.796593.796202440.050871801700.532693856609991632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:04FORECAST20232951064.16647.60655.8860000.240.24FF32.166593.166202440.050871801700.50613662506821632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:06FORECAST20232951064.16647.60655.8860000.240.24FF32.166592.166202440.050871801700.50613662506821632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:07FORECAST20232951068.32449.9159.1170000.240.24FF36.324599.324202440.050871801700.675569629222431632515150DRYMH
2023-07-13 12:00:09FORECAST20232951070.05250.19860.1250000.240.24FF38.052592.052202440.050871801700.73832854175331642415150DRYMH
2023-07-13 08:00:06FORECAST20232951070.3450.68460.5120000.240.24FF38.34601.34202440.050871801700.74814988788711642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 04:00:10FORECAST20232951075.63253.81664.7240000.240.24FF43.632606.632202440.050871801700.8904672425161652515160DRYH
2023-07-13 00:00:07FORECAST20232951054.35644.58249.4690000.240.24FF22.356575.356202440.050871801700.153202385884561612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 20:00:06FORECAST20232951055.05842.02648.5420000.240.24FF23.058581.058202440.050871801700.171446877457331612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 16:00:04FORECAST20232951050.2743.41246.8410000.240.24FF18.27576.27202440.050871801700.0727210492470981612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:07FORECAST20232951044.27641.75643.0160000.240.24FF12.276563.276202440.050871801700.0181874394596541612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:07FORECAST20232951044.27641.75643.0160000.250.25FF12.276572.276202440.050871801700.0181874394596541612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:17FORECAST20232951049.42447.62448.5240000.240.24FF17.424550.424202440.050871801700.0611026888867171612415217.5DRYL