MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 21, 2023

[ Thursday, July 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 22, 2023 ]

DAY 294 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/22/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.648
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 639

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 201
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.45 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 9

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-22 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023294967.5699849.6000458.585010000.240.24FF35.56998638.56998201439.44990399888 00.6482536045206816 32515225DRYL
2023-07-22 00:00:02FORECAST2023294965.13848.25456.6960000.240.24FF33.138636.138202440.050871801700.554182863333361632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 12:00:01FORECAST2023294965.55248.21856.8850000.240.24FF33.552636.552202440.050871801700.570574269517311632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 08:00:02FORECAST2023294965.55247.55256.5520000.240.24FF33.552636.552202440.050871801700.570574269517311632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 04:00:10FORECAST2023294966.41648.8357.6230000.240.24FF34.416637.416202440.050871801700.604361842322111632515225DRYL
2023-07-21 00:00:02FORECAST2023294965.78647.85856.8220000.240.24FF33.786632.786201439.4499039988800.579787297640991632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 20:00:02FORECAST2023294966.23647.42656.8310000.240.24FF34.236633.236201439.4499039988800.597378196805131632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 16:00:02FORECAST2023294967.02847.69657.3620000.240.24FF35.028634.028201439.4499039988800.62784435342761632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 12:00:04FORECAST2023294966.57849.69458.1360000.240.24FF34.578633.578201439.4499039988800.610618678076531632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST2023294966.59649.9158.2530000.240.24FF34.596635.596201439.4499039988800.611312148233811632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 04:00:08FORECAST2023294966.249.40657.8030000.240.24FF34.2635.2201439.4499039988800.595977654160241632515225DRYL
2023-07-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023294966.86649.42458.1450000.240.24FF34.866630.866201439.4499039988800.621670507700531632515225DRYL
2023-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST2023294966.8350.25258.5410000.240.24FF34.83629.83201439.4499039988800.620294251558741632515225DRYL
2023-07-19 16:00:04FORECAST2023294966.21850.01858.1180000.240.24FF34.218629.218201439.4499039988800.596678080449931632515225DRYL
2023-07-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023294965.96647.91256.9390000.240.24FF33.966628.966201439.4499039988800.58684489228171632515225DRYL
2023-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST2023294966.34448.66857.5060000.240.24FF34.344629.344201439.4499039988800.601572266086681632515225DRYL
2023-07-19 04:00:17FORECAST2023294966.23648.34457.290000.240.24FF34.236630.236201439.4499039988800.597378196805131632515225DRYL
2023-07-19 00:00:04FORECAST2023294966.09247.98457.0380000.240.24FF34.092626.092201439.4499039988800.591768708610541632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023294966.48849.13657.8120000.240.24FF34.488628.488201439.4499039988800.607146083860661632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 16:00:02FORECAST2023294967.35249.38858.370000.240.24FF35.352630.352201439.4499039988800.640092568474931632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 12:00:03FORECAST2023294967.02848.72257.8750000.240.24FF35.028631.028201439.4499039988800.62784435342761632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 08:00:04FORECAST2023294966.34447.24656.7950000.240.24FF34.344626.344201439.4499039988800.601572266086681632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 04:00:17FORECAST2023294965.62447.26456.4440000.240.24FF33.624626.624201439.4499039988800.573413387606981632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023294964.23848.2956.2640000.240.24FF32.238620.238201439.4499039988800.51826603776811632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023294964.72448.32656.5250000.240.24FF32.724623.724201439.4499039988800.537698316876891632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST2023294968.88250.03659.4590000.240.24FF36.882631.882201439.4499039988800.695831969475131632515150DRYMH
2023-07-17 12:00:07FORECAST2023294969.78251.18860.4850000.240.24FF37.782632.782201439.4499039988800.726709844777881642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023294968.73850.93659.8370000.240.24FF36.738627.738201439.4499039988800.690750827979781632515150DRYMH
2023-07-17 04:00:10FORECAST2023294969.42250.4559.9360000.240.24FF37.422628.422201439.4499039988800.714546030151381642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 00:00:04FORECAST2023294970.64650.05460.350000.240.24FF38.646626.646201439.4499039988800.754815681290181642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023294970.14250.23460.1880000.240.24FF38.142619.142201439.4499039988800.738611567965851642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2023294970.7951.63861.2140000.240.24FF38.79618.79201439.4499039988800.759344340838111642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023294969.40450.5459.9720000.240.24FF37.404618.404201439.4499039988800.713931143016751642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023294969.2650.07259.6660000.240.24FF37.26619.26201439.4499039988800.708989555657491642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 04:00:11FORECAST2023294969.38650.03659.7110000.240.24FF37.386620.386201439.4499039988800.71331562793771642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023294965.71448.48857.1010000.240.24FF33.714605.714201439.4499039988800.576956926986661632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 20:00:04FORECAST2023294965.73248.6557.1910000.240.24FF33.732604.732201439.4499039988800.577664898072231632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023294964.02247.89455.9580000.240.24FF32.022600.022201439.4499039988800.509612751069641632515225DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:06FORECAST2023294962.09648.30855.2020000.290.29FF30.096602.096201439.4499039988800.432728559166471622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023294960.92646.9453.9330000.30.3FF28.926595.926201439.4499039988800.387057424684161622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 04:00:11FORECAST2023294962.40247.3954.8960000.30.3FF30.402592.402201439.4499039988800.444849946639041622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:04FORECAST2023294964.05843.73653.8970000.270.27FF32.058594.058201439.4499039988800.511055389931161632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023294963.91443.66453.7890000.280.28FF31.914596.914201439.4499039988800.505284155397631632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 16:00:04FORECAST2023294960.18844.74452.466000.030.260.29FF28.188591.188201439.4499039988800.358992285882651622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2023294964.6746.00455.3370000.240.24FF32.67597.67201439.4499039988800.535542760054741632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:07FORECAST2023294965.10248.41656.7590000.240.24FF33.102600.102201439.4499039988800.552752720315791632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:10FORECAST2023294967.29847.98457.6410000.240.24FF35.298599.298201439.4499039988800.638060765461421632515225DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:04FORECAST2023294966.7450.19858.4690000.240.24FF34.74598.74201439.4499039988800.616846975151441632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:05FORECAST2023294966.7450.19858.4690000.240.24FF34.74597.74201439.4499039988800.616846975151441632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:07FORECAST2023294968.2750.66659.4680000.240.24FF36.27601.27201439.4499039988800.673987801534641632515150DRYMH
2023-07-13 12:00:09FORECAST2023294970.26850.50460.3860000.240.24FF38.268592.268201439.4499039988800.742713459325061642415150DRYMH
2023-07-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023294971.74451.67461.7090000.240.24FF39.744600.744201439.4499039988800.788168171614911642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023294973.29256.26464.7780000.240.24FF41.292601.292201439.4499039988800.830388819255641642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 00:00:06FORECAST2023294969.1751.00860.0890000.240.24FF37.17591.17201439.4499039988800.705880971256751642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023294969.11652.19660.6560000.240.24FF37.116596.116201439.4499039988800.704008492620971642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023294969.54851.29660.4220000.240.24FF37.548595.548201439.4499039988800.718832543784671642415150DRYMH
2023-07-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023294968.4545.4156.930000.240.24FF36.45589.45201439.4499039988800.680479215441231632415145DRYM
2023-07-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023294968.8145.4157.110000.250.25FF36.81597.81201439.4499039988800.693296037842391632415145DRYM
2023-07-12 04:00:16FORECAST2023294963.10446.41854.7610000.240.24FF31.104571.104201439.4499039988800.472835049526951622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:04FORECAST2023294951.47644.58248.0290000.230.23FF19.476559.476201439.4499039988800.108046670203961612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:05FORECAST2023294951.85444.58248.2180000.230.23FF19.854565.854201439.4499039988800.115274620434991612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2023294954.2347.19250.7110000.230.23FF22.23561.23201439.4499039988800.168537239045771612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:09FORECAST2023294948.59643.23245.9140000.230.23FF16.596548.596201439.4499039988800.0633800069561611612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023294948.59643.23245.9140000.230.23FF16.596550.596201439.4499039988800.0633800069561611612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:08FORECAST2023294944.4243.98844.2040000.230.23FF12.42541.42201439.4499039988800.0256892439267941612415217.5DRYL