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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 19, 2023

[ Tuesday, July 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 20, 2023 ]

DAY 292 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/20/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 58.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 67.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.937
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 44
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 630

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 199
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 7

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-20 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023292775.8358.4400267.135010000.240.24FF43.83629.83199438.24109561581 00.9368724652741816 52515160DRYH
2023-07-20 00:00:02FORECAST2023292771.09649.94660.5210000.240.24FF39.096625.096200438.8466481739300.838658224835451642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 12:00:02FORECAST2023292770.23250.43260.3320000.240.24FF38.232624.232200438.8466481739300.813399907350461642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 08:00:01FORECAST2023292770.17850.50460.3410000.240.24FF38.178624.178200438.8466481739300.811744102545811642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 04:00:16FORECAST2023292770.50250.41460.4580000.240.24FF38.502624.502200438.8466481739300.821543275307561642515155DRYH
2023-07-19 00:00:03FORECAST2023292771.649.92860.7640000.240.24FF39.6621.6199438.2410956158100.852313269594181652515160DRYH
2023-07-18 20:00:02FORECAST2023292771.81651.58461.70000.240.24FF39.816623.816199438.2410956158100.857921986169751652515160DRYH
2023-07-18 16:00:01FORECAST2023292772.1451.85461.9970000.240.24FF40.14624.14199438.2410956158100.866062281233251652515160DRYH
2023-07-18 12:00:03FORECAST2023292772.55451.5362.0420000.240.24FF40.554624.554199438.2410956158100.875990478222541652515160DRYH
2023-07-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023292771.34852.08861.7180000.240.24FF39.348622.348199438.2410956158100.845585257181941642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 04:00:16FORECAST2023292770.68251.7161.1960000.240.24FF38.682622.682199438.2410956158100.826846119593081642515155DRYH
2023-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023292770.14252.19661.1690000.240.24FF38.142619.142199438.2410956158100.810635223821241642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 20:00:05FORECAST2023292770.68252.41261.5470000.240.24FF38.682620.682199438.2410956158100.826846119593081642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST2023292772.37452.5262.4470000.240.24FF40.374623.374199438.2410956158100.871738816696771652515160DRYH
2023-07-17 12:00:06FORECAST2023292772.12252.12462.1230000.240.24FF40.122623.122199438.2410956158100.865618603636611652515160DRYH
2023-07-17 08:00:04FORECAST2023292771.22252.01661.6190000.240.24FF39.222621.222199438.2410956158100.842146627628051642515155DRYH
2023-07-17 04:00:09FORECAST2023292771.49251.72861.610000.240.24FF39.492620.492199438.2410956158100.849454190628941652515160DRYH
2023-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023292771.650.95461.2770000.240.24FF39.6616.6199438.2410956158100.852313269594181652515160DRYH
2023-07-16 20:00:05FORECAST2023292770.93451.6261.2770000.240.24FF38.934610.934199438.2410956158100.834100013044961642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2023292770.1650.88260.5210000.240.24FF38.16610.16199438.2410956158100.811190163730841642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023292769.94450.5460.2420000.240.24FF37.944610.944199438.2410956158100.804464968297981642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023292769.9849.17259.5760000.240.24FF37.98611.98199438.2410956158100.805595804448651642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023292770.14250.12660.1340000.240.24FF38.142612.142199438.2410956158100.810635223821241642515155DRYH
2023-07-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023292768.16248.30858.2350000.240.24FF36.162603.162199438.2410956158100.743657811421351642515155DRYH
2023-07-15 20:00:04FORECAST2023292767.67649.71258.6940000.240.24FF35.676601.676199438.2410956158100.725514899671881642515227.5DRYL
2023-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2023292767.149.24458.1720000.240.24FF35.1600.1199438.2410956158100.703223862546771642515227.5DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023292769.2650.68459.972000.050.240.29FF37.26604.26199438.2410956158100.782230029279311642515155DRYH
2023-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023292768.2749.9159.09000.060.240.3FF36.27600.27199438.2410956158100.747603100046691642515155DRYH
2023-07-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023292767.44249.38858.415000.060.240.3FF35.442595.442199438.2410956158100.716559209280971642415225DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2023292768.95449.13659.045000.030.240.27FF36.954594.954199438.2410956158100.771829563570581642415150DRYMH
2023-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023292769.20648.84859.027000.040.240.28FF37.206597.206199438.2410956158100.780414740905621642415150DRYMH
2023-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2023292767.38849.2858.334000.020.240.26FF35.388596.388199438.2410956158100.714472816938991642415225DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2023292767.8249.04658.4330000.240.24FF35.82597.82199438.2410956158100.730955896648931642415225DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023292767.76650.48659.1260000.240.24FF35.766600.766199438.2410956158100.728921872978141642515227.5DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:09FORECAST2023292767.38847.6657.5240000.240.24FF35.388598.388199438.2410956158100.714472816938991642415225DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2023292766.81248.93857.8750000.240.24FF34.812593.812199438.2410956158100.691776453130251632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:04FORECAST2023292766.81248.93857.8750000.240.24FF34.812592.812199438.2410956158100.691776453130251632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:06FORECAST2023292766.8346.88656.8580000.240.24FF34.83593.83199438.2410956158100.692497562965671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 12:00:09FORECAST2023292764.61645.5955.1030000.240.24FF32.616583.616199438.2410956158100.59900671221811632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023292765.87647.58856.7320000.240.24FF33.876589.876199438.2410956158100.653314305110331632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023292765.06646.43655.7510000.240.24FF33.066588.066199438.2410956158100.618685085801521632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-13 00:00:05FORECAST2023292764.61643.17853.8970000.240.24FF32.616584.616199438.2410956158100.59900671221811632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023292765.5743.80854.6890000.240.24FF33.57588.57199438.2410956158100.640364030167021632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023292765.37244.654.9860000.240.24FF33.372586.372199438.2410956158100.631896632698191632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023292764.36441.79253.0780000.240.24FF32.364583.364199438.2410956158100.587872545966751632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023292765.0343.7954.410000.250.25FF33.03590.03199438.2410956158100.617121315648521632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:16FORECAST2023292758.4642.04450.2520000.240.24FF26.46578.46199438.2410956158100.326227852188221622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:04FORECAST2023292757.45241.88249.6670000.230.23FF25.452575.452199438.2410956158100.285980860523531622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2023292759.34242.4450.8910000.230.23FF27.342579.342199438.2410956158100.363207983869151622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2023292758.11839.95649.0370000.230.23FF26.118571.118199438.2410956158100.312312349917081622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:08FORECAST2023292755.2238.42646.8230000.230.23FF23.22568.22199438.2410956158100.206271366124311612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023292755.61638.60647.1110000.230.23FF23.616569.616199438.2410956158100.219373607828661612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2023292750.93637.83244.3840000.230.23FF18.936566.936199438.2410956158100.095465983950621612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:07FORECAST2023292755.16639.00247.0840000.230.23FF23.166571.166199438.2410956158100.204521274475411612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:05FORECAST2023292756.80439.57848.1910000.230.23FF24.804574.804199438.2410956158100.261419225912681622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:05FORECAST2023292759.10840.76649.9370000.230.23FF27.108574.108199438.2410956158100.353254588069271622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023292765.6644.38455.0220000.230.23FF33.66583.66199438.2410956158100.644190485266811632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023292765.6641.93653.7980000.230.23FF33.66580.66199438.2410956158100.644190485266811632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:11FORECAST2023292762.11443.37652.7450000.230.23FF30.114573.114199438.2410956158100.486365184900681622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023292750.48642.81846.6520000.070.07FF18.486557.486199438.2410956158100.0870449968025391612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023292750.52241.55846.040000.050.05FF18.522554.522199438.2410956158100.0876976178562181612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:04FORECAST2023292753.4244.72649.0730000.070.07FF21.42576.42199438.2410956158100.152787181666251612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023292745.44641.16243.3040000.050.05FF13.446567.446199438.2410956158100.0264809217480591612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:08FORECAST2023292745.44641.16243.30400000FF13.446570.446199438.2410956158100.0264809217480591612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:08FORECAST2023292745.55442.78244.16800000FF13.554595.554199438.2410956158100.0272482216335461612415217.5DRYL