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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 18, 2023

[ Monday, July 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 19, 2023 ]

DAY 291 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/19/2023 04:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.647
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 615

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 198
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 6

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-19 04:00:14OBSERVATION2023291666.7200240.7100253.715020000.240.24FF34.72002614.72002198437.63323758034 00.6472274332790316 32515225DRYL
2023-07-19 00:00:01FORECAST2023291663.15839.41651.2870000.240.24FF31.158611.158199438.2410956158100.50876230817661632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST2023291664.59841.25252.9250000.240.24FF32.598612.598199438.2410956158100.565856584833041632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 08:00:02FORECAST2023291663.71640.13651.9260000.240.24FF31.716611.716199438.2410956158100.530972610724391632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 04:00:15FORECAST2023291664.54441.16252.8530000.240.24FF32.544612.544199438.2410956158100.563732703730251632515225DRYL
2023-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023291664.07642.22453.150000.240.24FF32.076610.076198437.6332375803400.545255183139451632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 20:00:02FORECAST2023291663.8642.11652.9880000.240.24FF31.86610.86198437.6332375803400.536691465394231632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 16:00:02FORECAST2023291665.06642.33253.6990000.240.24FF33.066612.066198437.6332375803400.58417760953181632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 12:00:05FORECAST2023291665.0341.93653.4830000.240.24FF33.03612.03198437.6332375803400.582774246250581632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST2023291664.29242.6253.4560000.240.24FF32.292611.292198437.6332375803400.553797919051181632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 04:00:08FORECAST2023291664.2242.1753.1950000.240.24FF32.22610.22198437.6332375803400.55095291409291632515225DRYL
2023-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023291664.02241.79252.9070000.240.24FF32.022606.022198437.6332375803400.543116067111691632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 20:00:04FORECAST2023291662.52841.50452.0160000.240.24FF30.528600.528198437.6332375803400.483657030822281622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2023291662.34840.94651.6470000.240.24FF30.348601.348198437.6332375803400.476491633955291622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023291663.0542.31452.6820000.240.24FF31.05602.05198437.6332375803400.504458253299241632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023291662.8741.07251.9710000.240.24FF30.87602.87198437.6332375803400.497283922576541622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023291663.28440.67651.980000.240.24FF31.284603.284198437.6332375803400.513782381228191632515225DRYL
2023-07-16 00:00:03FORECAST2023291662.20439.86651.0350000.240.24FF30.204596.204198437.6332375803400.470764672976161622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2023291661.95239.57850.7650000.240.24FF29.952594.952198437.6332375803400.460757732681771622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2023291661.7940.2851.0350000.240.24FF29.79593.79198437.6332375803400.454337396374131622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023291663.10440.44251.773000.050.240.29FF31.104596.104198437.6332375803400.506610376932761632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023291661.68239.45250.567000.060.240.3FF29.682592.682198437.6332375803400.450063685589071622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023291660.81838.71449.766000.060.240.3FF28.818588.818198437.6332375803400.416122906678971622415220DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2023291661.98839.12850.558000.030.240.27FF29.988586.988198437.6332375803400.462185924183751622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023291661.41239.45250.432000.040.240.28FF29.412589.412198437.6332375803400.43940577689971622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2023291661.5239.75850.639000.020.240.26FF29.52589.52198437.6332375803400.443664115263741622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2023291662.2439.6550.9450000.240.24FF30.24591.24198437.6332375803400.472195893012231622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023291662.36640.33451.350000.240.24FF30.366594.366198437.6332375803400.477207870025761622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2023291661.19639.27250.2340000.240.24FF29.196592.196198437.6332375803400.4309105813561622415220DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2023291660.72839.03849.8830000.240.24FF28.728587.728198437.6332375803400.412618643471561622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:04FORECAST2023291660.72839.03849.8830000.240.24FF28.728586.728198437.6332375803400.412618643471561622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:06FORECAST2023291660.06238.82249.4420000.240.24FF28.062588.062198437.6332375803400.386920715247871622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 12:00:08FORECAST2023291656.98437.11247.0480000.240.24FF24.984579.984198437.6332375803400.275959299210671622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023291659.14439.07449.1090000.240.24FF27.144585.144198437.6332375803400.352317349215621622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023291657.1138.98448.0470000.240.24FF25.11584.11198437.6332375803400.280183084442251622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 00:00:05FORECAST2023291657.12837.00447.0660000.240.24FF25.128581.128198437.6332375803400.280789026724351622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023291657.99236.44647.2190000.240.24FF25.992583.992198437.6332375803400.310592699582041622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023291657.97438.42648.20000.240.24FF25.974581.974198437.6332375803400.3099579677011622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023291655.47238.67847.0750000.240.24FF23.472580.472198437.6332375803400.227840563914441612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023291656.85837.47247.1650000.250.25FF24.858585.858198437.6332375803400.271766992345571622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:15FORECAST2023291653.7838.89446.3370000.240.24FF21.78580.78198437.6332375803400.180072156991221612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:04FORECAST2023291653.8739.1146.490000.230.23FF21.87578.87198437.6332375803400.182443195863011612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2023291655.0438.80446.9220000.230.23FF23.04581.04198437.6332375803400.215011995690781612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:03FORECAST2023291652.57439.09245.8330000.230.23FF20.574573.574198437.6332375803400.150179447134921612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:07FORECAST2023291654.80638.19246.4990000.230.23FF22.806573.806198437.6332375803400.208241702771691612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023291654.57238.31846.4450000.230.23FF22.572574.572198437.6332375803400.201598594395041612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2023291658.53240.69449.6130000.230.23FF26.532576.532198437.6332375803400.329889732292651622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:07FORECAST2023291657.12840.89249.010000.230.23FF25.128577.128198437.6332375803400.280789026724351622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:04FORECAST2023291655.7641.52248.6410000.230.23FF23.76578.76198437.6332375803400.236626439292361612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:05FORECAST2023291656.22839.81248.020000.230.23FF24.228576.228198437.6332375803400.251291971586691622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023291658.85641.32450.090000.230.23FF26.856578.856198437.6332375803400.341693332374471622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023291655.88639.2947.5880000.230.23FF23.886575.886198437.6332375803400.240527991694031612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:10FORECAST2023291657.27242.38649.8290000.230.23FF25.272572.272198437.6332375803400.285659215872891622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023291659.43242.40450.9180000.070.07FF27.432568.432198437.6332375803400.363057812737831622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023291658.24441.0949.6670000.050.05FF26.244565.244198437.6332375803400.319537440914461622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2023291664.45442.4453.4470000.070.07FF32.454584.454198437.6332375803400.560188844961081632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023291661.21442.852.0070000.050.05FF29.214583.214198437.6332375803400.431617350828151622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:07FORECAST2023291661.23243.23252.23200000FF29.232586.232198437.6332375803400.432324339254751622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:08FORECAST2023291662.67246.81454.74300000FF30.672610.672198437.6332375803400.489393262556341622515222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 00:00:11FORECAST2023291651.47642.06246.76900000FF19.476602.476198437.6332375803400.126006053710991612515220DRYL
2023-07-08 20:00:05FORECAST2023291651.54845.80648.67700000FF19.548608.548198437.6332375803400.127503074740111612515220DRYL
2023-07-08 16:00:09FORECAST2023291650.19843.5246.85900000FF18.198596.198198437.6332375803400.101448257309281612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:09FORECAST2023291644.92439.57842.2510000.010.01FF12.924584.924198437.6332375803400.0357862004020221612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:05FORECAST2023291644.92439.57842.2510000.040.04FF12.924584.924198437.6332375803400.0357862004020221612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:17FORECAST2023291646.88645.33846.1120000.010.01FF14.886583.886198437.6332375803400.0542408492445071612415217.5DRYL