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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 17, 2023

[ Sunday, July 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 ]

DAY 290 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/18/2023 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.52°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.182
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 614

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 197
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 5

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-18 04:00:13OBSERVATION2023290553.8399441.1999847.519960000.240.24FF21.83994613.83994197437.02306529003 00.1824372229420516 12515220DRYL
2023-07-18 00:00:02FORECAST2023290551.96240.65846.310000.240.24FF19.962611.962198437.6332375803400.138192546454391612515220DRYL
2023-07-17 12:00:03FORECAST2023290552.80840.6446.7240000.240.24FF20.808612.808198437.6332375803400.157132488229861612515220DRYL
2023-07-17 08:00:02FORECAST2023290552.57440.8246.6970000.240.24FF20.574612.574198437.6332375803400.151731134200991612515220DRYL
2023-07-17 04:00:08FORECAST2023290552.4341.23446.8320000.240.24FF20.43612.43198437.6332375803400.148469118285351612515220DRYL
2023-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023290552.68240.69446.6880000.240.24FF20.682607.682197437.0230652900300.154208587542491612515220DRYL
2023-07-16 20:00:02FORECAST2023290550.9940.04645.5180000.240.24FF18.99603.99197437.0230652900300.118424015790931612515220DRYL
2023-07-16 16:00:02FORECAST2023290552.12439.75845.9410000.240.24FF20.124605.124197437.0230652900300.141693665087071612515220DRYL
2023-07-16 12:00:04FORECAST2023290552.41241.19846.8050000.240.24FF20.412605.412197437.0230652900300.14806467959561612515220DRYL
2023-07-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023290552.77240.58646.6790000.240.24FF20.772605.772197437.0230652900300.15629340179891612515220DRYL
2023-07-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023290552.73640.53246.6340000.240.24FF20.736605.736197437.0230652900300.155457264466551612515220DRYL
2023-07-16 00:00:03FORECAST2023290552.4340.1946.310000.240.24FF20.43600.43197437.0230652900300.148469118285351612515220DRYL
2023-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2023290552.53840.89246.7150000.240.24FF20.538598.538197437.0230652900300.150911211216781612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-15 16:00:02FORECAST2023290552.48440.47846.4810000.240.24FF20.484598.484197437.0230652900300.149686851146511612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023290552.10640.24446.17500.047244120.047244120.240.28724412FF20.106599.106197437.0230652900300.141301719681811612515220DRYL
2023-07-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023290551.0839.5645.3200.059055150.059055150.240.29905515FF19.08597.08197437.0230652900300.120165985308741612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-15 04:00:10FORECAST2023290550.88239.3845.13100.062992160.062992160.240.30299216FF18.882593.882197437.0230652900300.116357236904361612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2023290551.49440.69446.09400.027559070.027559070.240.26755907FF19.494591.494197437.0230652900300.128410601986571612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023290550.73840.6445.68900.035433090.035433090.240.27543309FF18.738593.738197437.0230652900300.113641402050171612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-14 16:00:03FORECAST2023290550.86441.01845.94100.015748040.015748040.240.25574804FF18.864593.864197437.0230652900300.116015269233961612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2023290552.23241.41446.8230000.240.24FF20.232595.232197437.0230652900300.144060750605591612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023290552.01641.12646.5710000.240.24FF20.016598.016197437.0230652900300.139352991380851612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2023290551.15240.9146.0310000.240.24FF19.152597.152197437.0230652900300.121572461974321612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2023290551.02640.92845.9770000.240.24FF19.026593.026197437.0230652900300.119118656233011612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023290551.02640.92845.9770000.240.24FF19.026592.026197437.0230652900300.119118656233011612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023290551.65641.25246.4540000.240.24FF19.656593.656197437.0230652900300.131740936281531612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 12:00:08FORECAST2023290551.83640.3746.1030000.240.24FF19.836588.836197437.0230652900300.13551044861221612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023290552.84442.04447.4440000.240.24FF20.844591.844197437.0230652900300.157974523901681612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023290552.48442.4447.4620000.240.24FF20.484593.484197437.0230652900300.149686851146511612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-13 00:00:05FORECAST2023290552.37641.10846.7420000.240.24FF20.376590.376197437.0230652900300.147258009976841612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023290551.72840.71246.220000.240.24FF19.728591.728197437.0230652900300.133239993336281612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023290551.5341.91846.7240000.240.24FF19.53589.53197437.0230652900300.129145593004531612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023290552.71841.84647.2820000.240.24FF20.718590.718197437.0230652900300.155040301648521612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023290553.29441.2747.2820000.250.25FF21.294595.294197437.0230652900300.168748756805511612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:15FORECAST2023290553.22242.56647.8940000.240.24FF21.222593.222197437.0230652900300.166993933921741612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023290552.93443.73648.3350000.230.23FF20.934590.934197437.0230652900300.160092516301711612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:04FORECAST2023290553.43842.81848.1280000.230.23FF21.438592.438197437.0230652900300.172293724019781612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023290553.8743.08848.4790000.230.23FF21.87586.87197437.0230652900300.183210498995431612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:07FORECAST2023290553.18641.9947.5880000.230.23FF21.186585.186197437.0230652900300.16612094065811612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023290553.54642.11647.8310000.230.23FF21.546585.546197437.0230652900300.174983322850221612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2023290556.15644.45650.3060000.230.23FF24.156584.156197437.0230652900300.247839206997481612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:07FORECAST2023290560.02645.39252.7090000.230.23FF28.026586.026197437.0230652900300.379893462362881622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:04FORECAST2023290560.47643.82652.1510000.230.23FF28.476589.476197437.0230652900300.396623970630421622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023290560.04442.96251.5030000.230.23FF28.044586.044197437.0230652900300.380558615712681622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023290560.47645.26652.8710000.230.23FF28.476586.476197437.0230652900300.396623970630421622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023290557.77643.5250.6480000.230.23FF25.776585.776197437.0230652900300.300107154211791622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:10FORECAST2023290560.5346.27453.4020000.230.23FF28.53580.53197437.0230652900300.398645156116711622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023290558.69444.27651.4850000.070.07FF26.694574.694197437.0230652900300.331777077685791622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023290558.1943.28650.7380000.050.05FF26.19573.19197437.0230652900300.314221962109931622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2023290559.88242.18851.0350000.070.07FF27.882585.882197437.0230652900300.374585169480221622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023290561.19643.68252.4390000.050.05FF29.196588.196197437.0230652900300.423780570660141622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:07FORECAST2023290561.64644.1552.89800000FF29.646590.646197437.0230652900300.440948002938211622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:08FORECAST2023290568.07253.92460.99800000FF36.072614.072197437.0230652900300.682597436174231632515150DRYMH
2023-07-09 00:00:10FORECAST2023290567.78452.93460.35900000FF35.784616.784197437.0230652900300.672572496970861632515225DRYL
2023-07-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023290568.52253.13260.82700000FF36.522622.522197437.0230652900300.697994774935081632515150DRYMH
2023-07-08 16:00:09FORECAST2023290566.86649.67658.27100000FF34.866611.866197437.0230652900300.639809246668311632515225DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:08FORECAST2023290564.79644.0654.4280000.010.01FF32.796605.796197437.0230652900300.562412602699141632515225DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:05FORECAST2023290564.90444.0654.4820000.040.04FF32.904605.904197437.0230652900300.566538620872611632515225DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:17FORECAST2023290564.09447.37255.7330000.010.01FF32.094603.094197437.0230652900300.535447710353231632515225DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023290548.14636.69842.4220000.060.06FF16.146578.146197437.0230652900300.0722289119446331612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 20:00:04FORECAST2023290549.9142.11646.0130000.060.06FF17.91581.91197437.0230652900300.0988976446410871612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:07FORECAST2023290550.2745.84248.0560000.040.04FF18.27578.27197437.0230652900300.105126883178371612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:07FORECAST2023290548.16443.82645.99500000FF16.164579.164197437.0230652900300.0724700545488051612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:08FORECAST2023290548.03843.75445.8960000.040.04FF16.038565.038197437.0230652900300.0707949076617211612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:15FORECAST2023290550.50449.24449.87400000FF18.504578.504197437.0230652900300.109324794926191612415217.5DRYL