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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 15, 2023

[ Friday, July 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 16, 2023 ]

DAY 288 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/16/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 76.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.916
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 44
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 622

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 195
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 3

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-16 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023288376.0155.4100865.710040000.240.24FF44.01622.01195435.79574266778 00.9162186582373416 52515160DRYH
2023-07-16 00:00:01FORECAST2023288369.65650.16259.9090000.240.24FF37.656615.656196436.41056993400.768874698576711642515155DRYH
2023-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2023288369.67449.78459.7290000.240.24FF37.674615.674196436.41056993400.769430182849981642515155DRYH
2023-07-15 08:00:01FORECAST2023288369.6250.8160.2150000.240.24FF37.62615.62196436.41056993400.767761496660221642515155DRYH
2023-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2023288367.92851.20659.5670000.240.24FF35.928613.928196436.41056993400.712227214656361642515227.5DRYL
2023-07-15 00:00:02FORECAST2023288369.4451.85460.6470000.240.24FF37.44610.44195435.7957426677800.762151045390611642515155DRYH
2023-07-14 20:00:02FORECAST2023288370.08851.40460.7460000.240.24FF38.088612.088195435.7957426677800.781998905531191642515155DRYH
2023-07-14 16:00:01FORECAST2023288369.7151.24260.4760000.240.24FF37.71611.71195435.7957426677800.770538913800061642515155DRYH
2023-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2023288369.04452.95260.9980000.240.24FF37.044611.044195435.7957426677800.749551003476681642515155DRYH
2023-07-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023288370.2551.69260.9710000.240.24FF38.25614.25195435.7957426677800.786807680417791642515155DRYH
2023-07-14 04:00:07FORECAST2023288370.44852.41261.430000.240.24FF38.448613.448195435.7957426677800.792600393207691642515155DRYH
2023-07-14 00:00:03FORECAST2023288369.85452.46661.160000.240.24FF37.854608.854195435.7957426677800.77494388190321642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023288369.85452.46661.160000.240.24FF37.854607.854195435.7957426677800.77494388190321642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023288369.83652.48461.160000.240.24FF37.836607.836195435.7957426677800.774395890522151642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 12:00:07FORECAST2023288369.33250.88260.1070000.240.24FF37.332605.332195435.7957426677800.758749479619221642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023288370.41252.14261.2770000.240.24FF38.412607.412195435.7957426677800.791554135055381642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023288370.68253.43862.060000.240.24FF38.682608.682195435.7957426677800.79932519197431642515155DRYH
2023-07-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023288370.39451.2660.8270000.240.24FF38.394604.394195435.7957426677800.791029843163791642515155DRYH
2023-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2023288370.59251.06260.8270000.240.24FF38.592606.592195435.7957426677800.796754332755891642515155DRYH
2023-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023288371.04252.64661.8440000.240.24FF39.042604.042195435.7957426677800.809412228322421642515155DRYH
2023-07-12 12:00:05FORECAST2023288371.3352.93462.1320000.240.24FF39.33604.33195435.7957426677800.817253918205451642515155DRYH
2023-07-12 08:00:04FORECAST2023288371.16852.41261.790000.250.25FF39.168607.168195435.7957426677800.812868006570671642515155DRYH
2023-07-12 04:00:14FORECAST2023288369.90851.83660.8720000.240.24FF37.908604.908195435.7957426677800.776583330713981642515155DRYH
2023-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023288370.44851.78261.1150000.230.23FF38.448603.448195435.7957426677800.792600393207691642515155DRYH
2023-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2023288369.78250.52260.1520000.230.23FF37.782603.782195435.7957426677800.772747402029161642515155DRYH
2023-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023288369.29650.37859.8370000.230.23FF37.296599.296195435.7957426677800.757609786376231642515155DRYH
2023-07-11 12:00:06FORECAST2023288369.7150.66660.1880000.230.23FF37.71599.71195435.7957426677800.770538913800061642515155DRYH
2023-07-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023288370.26850.16260.2150000.230.23FF38.268599.268195435.7957426677800.787338150429241642515155DRYH
2023-07-11 04:00:06FORECAST202328836850.57659.2880000.230.23FF36595195435.7957426677800.714712320413151642415150DRYMH
2023-07-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023288367.13648.3857.7580000.230.23FF35.136593.136195435.7957426677800.684240765247671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2023288368.14449.20858.6760000.230.23FF36.144596.144195435.7957426677800.719651666105731642415150DRYMH
2023-07-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023288366.5647.40856.9840000.230.23FF34.56593.56195435.7957426677800.663189404390191632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023288366.84848.8357.8390000.230.23FF34.848594.848195435.7957426677800.673784250448051632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023288366.54249.04657.7940000.230.23FF34.542597.542195435.7957426677800.662522798489051632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:09FORECAST2023288365.53448.50657.020000.230.23FF33.534589.534195435.7957426677800.62443412279981632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023288366.05648.36257.2090000.070.07FF34.056588.056195435.7957426677800.644337712346921632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:05FORECAST2023288365.82248.41657.1190000.050.05FF33.822585.822195435.7957426677800.635460261120621632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2023288367.65850.14458.9010000.070.07FF35.658593.658195435.7957426677800.702818254251811642415225DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023288370.0751.42260.7460000.050.05FF38.07592.07195435.7957426677800.781460771279951642415150DRYMH
2023-07-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023288370.17851.38660.78200000FF38.178594.178195435.7957426677800.784678112651361642415150DRYMH
2023-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2023288371.7852.57462.17700000FF39.78605.78195435.7957426677800.82909747951071642515155DRYH
2023-07-09 00:00:09FORECAST2023288374.22853.63663.93200000FF42.228608.228195435.7957426677800.884749514251661652515160DRYH
2023-07-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023288374.80452.3463.57200000FF42.804611.804195435.7957426677800.895724926673931652515160DRYH
2023-07-08 16:00:08FORECAST2023288373.65250.32461.98800000FF41.652606.652195435.7957426677800.872979596897761652515160DRYH
2023-07-08 12:00:08FORECAST2023288371.88850.7261.3040000.010.01FF39.888601.888195435.7957426677800.831865358247271642515155DRYH
2023-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023288371.7850.9961.3850000.040.04FF39.78600.78195435.7957426677800.82909747951071642515155DRYH
2023-07-08 04:00:16FORECAST2023288368.19847.0357.6140000.010.01FF36.198605.198195435.7957426677800.721493197134561642515155DRYH
2023-07-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023288367.0146.11256.5610000.060.06FF35.01598.01195435.7957426677800.67968351592841632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 20:00:04FORECAST2023288368.91847.64258.280000.060.06FF36.918597.918195435.7957426677800.745469076291731642415150DRYMH
2023-07-07 16:00:06FORECAST2023288367.6448.6558.1450000.040.04FF35.64594.64195435.7957426677800.702186025808821642415225DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:06FORECAST2023288367.13649.31658.22600000FF35.136599.136195435.7957426677800.684240765247671632515225DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:07FORECAST2023288365.40848.9257.1640000.040.04FF33.408586.408195435.7957426677800.619577438661461632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:14FORECAST2023288362.83444.90653.8700000FF30.834592.834195435.7957426677800.517297854318071632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:05FORECAST2023288367.13647.91257.52400000FF35.136595.136195435.7957426677800.684240765247671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:07FORECAST2023288366.14647.91257.0290000.020.02FF34.146598.146195435.7957426677800.647731695690091632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 16:00:07FORECAST2023288368.23447.44457.83900000FF36.234614.234195435.7957426677800.722717605637751642515155DRYH
2023-07-06 12:00:09FORECAST2023288368.05449.98259.0180000.050.05FF36.054615.054195435.7957426677800.716569422105211642515155DRYH
2023-07-06 08:00:09FORECAST2023288368.64850.32459.48600000FF36.648624.648195435.7957426677800.736606284984541642515155DRYH
2023-07-06 04:00:11FORECAST2023288366.95644.65455.80500000FF34.956604.956195435.7957426677800.677722036094171632515225DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:07FORECAST2023288351.9847.71449.84700000FF19.98586.98195435.7957426677800.145162823484081612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:04FORECAST2023288351.11647.10249.10900000FF19.116588.116195435.7957426677800.126082417088551612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:05FORECAST2023288351.54845.17648.3620000.060.06FF19.548584.548195435.7957426677800.135393024889491612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:09FORECAST2023288350.55846.25648.4070000.010.01FF18.558592.558195435.7957426677800.11472823312691612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 08:00:07FORECAST2023288350.5446.32848.4340000.010.01FF18.54577.54195435.7957426677800.114374454165511612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:11FORECAST2023288351.69250.48651.08900000FF19.692584.692195435.7957426677800.138598421542261612415217.5DRYL