MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 13, 2023

[ Wednesday, July 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, July 14, 2023 ]

DAY 286 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/14/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.564
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 592

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 193
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-14 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023286164.0200242.9299653.47499000.010.30.31FF32.02002592.02002193434.55905685856 00.5640939160941916 32415222.5DRYL
2023-07-14 00:00:01FORECAST2023286159.50442.38650.945000.010.30.31FF27.504587.504194435.1785746132700.3919723845761622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 12:00:04FORECAST2023286158.67641.55850.117000.010.30.31FF26.676586.676194435.1785746132700.36165535621571622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2023286159.34241.66650.504000.010.30.31FF27.342587.342194435.1785746132700.38598238365081622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 04:00:08FORECAST2023286159.68442.92651.305000.010.30.31FF27.684587.684194435.1785746132700.398658032408761622415220DRYL
2023-07-13 00:00:03FORECAST2023286159.75642.49451.125000.010.30.31FF27.756582.756193434.5590568585600.401340759589641622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 20:00:01FORECAST2023286161.41241.41451.413000.010.30.31FF29.412585.412193434.5590568585600.464076717233261622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2023286159.19843.01651.107000.010.30.31FF27.198583.198193434.5590568585600.380680607096861622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:04FORECAST2023286159.3643.21451.287000.010.30.31FF27.36583.36193434.5590568585600.386646627850781622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:03FORECAST2023286160.29643.01651.656000.020.30.32FF28.296585.296193434.5590568585600.421601221451361622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:13FORECAST2023286160.02642.8951.458000.010.30.31FF28.026585.026193434.5590568585600.411441474942591622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023286160.40442.96251.6830000.30.3FF28.404583.404193434.5590568585600.425680178991521622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:02FORECAST2023286160.7142.15251.4310000.30.3FF28.71583.71193434.5590568585600.437279070983491622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023286159.39642.0850.7380000.30.3FF27.396581.396193434.5590568585600.387976110890641622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023286159.19841.68450.4410000.30.3FF27.198581.198193434.5590568585600.380680607096861622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023286159.12641.93650.5310000.30.3FF27.126580.126193434.5590568585600.378038025848781622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:06FORECAST2023286158.62241.4550.0360000.30.3FF26.622578.622193434.5590568585600.359705685567451622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023286158.22641.12649.6760000.30.3FF26.226579.226193434.5590568585600.345522332214711622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2023286158.20841.05449.6310000.30.3FF26.208580.208193434.5590568585600.344882577134671622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2023286158.3884149.6940000.30.3FF26.388580.388193434.5590568585600.351299790960441622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023286159.01842.7150.8640000.30.3FF27.018581.018193434.5590568585600.374084862257391622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:05FORECAST2023286158.83842.33250.5850000.30.3FF26.838583.838193434.5590568585600.36752576140571622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:09FORECAST2023286157.18241.12649.1540000.30.3FF25.182577.182193434.5590568585600.309196869524391622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023286158.06440.49649.28000.070.070.14FF26.064574.064193434.5590568585600.339780616921871622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:04FORECAST2023286157.45240.78449.1180000.120.12FF25.452572.452193434.5590568585600.318432279344861622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2023286158.02841.59449.8110000.140.14FF26.028577.028193434.5590568585600.338509652368031622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023286156.10240.7348.4160000.120.12FF24.102573.102193434.5590568585600.273488794269381622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023286156.2464148.6230000.070.07FF24.246576.246193434.5590568585600.278129919525421622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2023286157.8342.2650.0450000.070.07FF25.83583.83193434.5590568585600.331552495365371622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 00:00:07FORECAST2023286159.48642.02650.7560000.070.07FF27.486583.486193434.5590568585600.39130553467581622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023286161.12440.98251.0530000.070.07FF29.124586.124193434.5590568585600.453056033452291622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 16:00:07FORECAST2023286159.79241.64850.720000.070.07FF27.792581.792193434.5590568585600.402683877449161622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:08FORECAST2023286158.44241.66650.0540000.080.08FF26.442580.442193434.5590568585600.353233347818151622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023286157.99241.88249.9370000.110.11FF25.992579.992193434.5590568585600.33724052343311622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:15FORECAST2023286159.16241.9950.5760000.080.08FF27.162588.162193434.5590568585600.379358612160841622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:04FORECAST2023286160.24241.82851.035000.030.10.13FF28.242586.242193434.5590568585600.419564863796191622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2023286159.77440.04649.91000.030.10.13FF27.774581.774193434.5590568585600.40201217390921622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:05FORECAST2023286159.59441.21650.405000.020.090.11FF27.594576.594193434.5590568585600.395311357710721622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:05FORECAST2023286158.74839.57849.1630000.070.07FF26.748580.748193434.5590568585600.364260503633671622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:07FORECAST2023286158.11840.74849.4330000.110.11FF26.118572.118193434.5590568585600.341690477820921622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:14FORECAST2023286160.63841.77451.2060000.070.07FF28.638580.638193434.5590568585600.434544682376591622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023286162.36642.6252.4930000.070.07FF30.366576.366193434.5590568585600.500733384226481632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:06FORECAST2023286163.03242.13452.5830000.090.09FF31.032582.032193434.5590568585600.526338711920351632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023286167.8243.75455.7870000.070.07FF35.82591.82193434.5590568585600.701196975407881642415225DRYL
2023-07-06 12:00:08FORECAST2023286167.11844.655.8590000.120.12FF35.118592.118193434.5590568585600.677291967992031632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 08:00:09FORECAST2023286168.77446.25657.5150000.070.07FF36.774599.774193434.5590568585600.732325644340711642515155DRYH
2023-07-06 04:00:10FORECAST2023286165.94847.62456.7860000.070.07FF33.948587.948193434.5590568585600.635816382524421632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:06FORECAST2023286164.88646.09455.490000.070.07FF32.886584.886193434.5590568585600.596723383587471632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:04FORECAST2023286165.55246.38255.9670000.070.07FF33.552586.552193434.5590568585600.621379713244031632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:05FORECAST2023286165.8447.51656.678000.060.070.13FF33.84583.84193434.5590568585600.63189718830161632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:08FORECAST2023286165.87645.46455.670000.080.08FF33.876585.876193434.5590568585600.633205135040911632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 08:00:06FORECAST2023286164.59845.8655.2290000.080.08FF32.598576.598193434.5590568585600.58593452337921632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:10FORECAST2023286163.5943.08853.3390000.070.07FF31.59580.59193434.5590568585600.547712727419351632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:09FORECAST2023286160.51245.78853.150000.110.11FF28.512569.512193434.5590568585600.429767104293281622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:08FORECAST2023286160.72845.69853.2130000.070.07FF28.728571.728193434.5590568585600.437963141737921622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:04FORECAST2023286162.85243.4353.1410000.070.07FF30.852561.852193434.5590568585600.519424655788091632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023286172.46447.22859.8460000.070.07FF40.464588.464193434.5590568585600.835434206863311642415150DRYMH
2023-07-04 08:00:08FORECAST2023286172.46446.32859.3960000.070.07FF40.464583.464193434.5590568585600.835434206863311642415150DRYMH
2023-07-04 04:00:23FORECAST2023286164.65243.30453.9780000.070.07FF32.652565.652193434.5590568585600.587962643507051632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:05FORECAST2023286152.12446.86849.4960000.070.07FF20.124547.124193434.5590568585600.162046220008441612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:10FORECAST2023286149.85646.3148.0830000.070.07FF17.856554.856193434.5590568585600.114093315797851612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023286148.9244.61846.7690000.070.07FF16.92562.92193434.5590568585600.0975812454791191612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 12:00:06FORECAST2023286148.9245.35647.1380000.070.07FF16.92565.92193434.5590568585600.0975812454791191612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 09:27:29FORECAST2023286148.9245.35647.1380000.070.07FF16.92573.92193434.5590568585600.0975812454791191612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 08:00:05FORECAST2023286148.81245.30247.05729.8581912000.070.07FF16.812569.812193446.4887134115513.3313453736840.095794647813556161241123.5DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:19FORECAST2023286149.31647.87648.59629.7649918000.070.07FF17.316567.316193446.4528661084113.2886658988030.10434039743822161241123.5DRYL