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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 12, 2023

[ Tuesday, July 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 13, 2023 ]

DAY 285 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/13/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.451
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 591

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 192
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 0

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-13 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023285062.3800446.0500854.21506000.010.30.31FF30.38004591.38004192433.93718045778 00.4511289596559516 22415220DRYL
2023-07-13 00:00:01FORECAST2023285057.39842.67450.036000.010.30.31FF25.398586.398193434.5590568585600.276811261527871622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2023285057.61443.21450.414000.010.30.31FF25.614586.614193434.5590568585600.283667000019661622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2023285058.94642.67450.8100.011811030.021811030.30.32181103FF26.946587.946193434.5590568585600.327638298919511622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 04:00:12FORECAST2023285058.74842.74650.747000.010.30.31FF26.748587.748193434.5590568585600.320928271195941622415220DRYL
2023-07-12 00:00:02FORECAST2023285058.49643.9751.2330000.30.3FF26.496586.496192433.9371804577800.312472269504251622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 20:00:01FORECAST2023285058.13642.92650.5310000.30.3FF26.136586.136192433.9371804577800.300562319219821622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 16:00:01FORECAST2023285057.30843.39450.3510000.30.3FF25.308585.308192433.9371804577800.273978823940281622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 12:00:04FORECAST2023285057.0243.37650.1980000.30.3FF25.02585.02192433.9371804577800.265012295632051622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2023285057.12843.26850.1980000.30.3FF25.128584.128192433.9371804577800.268357221801331622415220DRYL
2023-07-11 04:00:06FORECAST2023285056.24642.24249.2440000.30.3FF24.246583.246192433.9371804577800.241675157426471612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-11 00:00:05FORECAST2023285056.31842.5349.4240000.30.3FF24.318584.318192433.9371804577800.243798021200841612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2023285056.67842.24249.460000.30.3FF24.678584.678192433.9371804577800.254561429448161622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2023285056.91242.76449.8380000.30.3FF24.912584.912192433.9371804577800.261688655386051622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023285057.34443.44850.3960000.30.3FF25.344585.344192433.9371804577800.275110080446721622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 08:00:05FORECAST2023285057.5643.21450.3870000.30.3FF25.56587.56192433.9371804577800.281945471446171622415220DRYL
2023-07-10 04:00:08FORECAST2023285055.92242.45849.190000.30.3FF23.922582.922192433.9371804577800.232247442178341612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2023285055.09442.02648.5600.070866180.070866180.070.14086618FF23.094579.094192433.9371804577800.209107789045211612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 20:00:04FORECAST2023285054.82442.24248.5330000.120.12FF22.824577.824192433.9371804577800.201865676496941612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2023285056.2142.49449.352000.020.120.14FF24.21582.21192433.9371804577800.240617494478521612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023285054.98641.37848.1820000.120.12FF22.986579.986192433.9371804577800.206192797746271612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:04FORECAST2023285056.1241.91849.0190000.070.07FF24.12583.12192433.9371804577800.237984379061171612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2023285057.07443.2550.1620000.070.07FF25.074589.074192433.9371804577800.266682111056861622415220DRYL
2023-07-09 00:00:06FORECAST2023285056.62444.0650.3420000.070.07FF24.624586.624192433.9371804577800.25293122525951622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 20:00:03FORECAST2023285056.80444.00650.4050000.070.07FF24.804587.804192433.9371804577800.258386506758761622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 16:00:07FORECAST2023285056.15642.90849.5320000.070.07FF24.156585.156192433.9371804577800.239035728538161612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:07FORECAST2023285056.73242.36849.55000.010.070.08FF24.732584.732192433.9371804577800.256197113096631622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023285056.19242.849.496000.040.070.11FF24.192585.192192433.9371804577800.240089607939571612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:15FORECAST2023285058.2844.43851.359000.010.070.08FF26.28592.28192433.9371804577800.30530175357861622415220DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:04FORECAST2023285057.5643.71850.63900.027559070.057559070.070.12755907FF25.56588.56192433.9371804577800.281945471446171622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 20:00:03FORECAST2023285056.51643.01649.76600.027559070.057559070.070.12755907FF24.516584.516192433.9371804577800.249687349304161622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:05FORECAST2023285056.24642.3549.29800.023622060.043622060.070.11362206FF24.246580.246192433.9371804577800.241675157426471612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:05FORECAST2023285057.99242.60250.2970000.070.07FF25.992584.992192433.9371804577800.2958563603241622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023285057.21842.74649.9820000.110.11FF25.218577.218192433.9371804577800.271160767986391622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:13FORECAST2023285058.13643.01650.5760000.070.07FF26.136583.136192433.9371804577800.300562319219821622415220DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023285057.05643.57450.3150000.070.07FF25.056577.056192433.9371804577800.266124916242691622415220DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:05FORECAST2023285057.52442.76450.1440000.090.09FF25.524581.524192433.9371804577800.280800585610161622415220DRYL
2023-07-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023285058.96442.56650.7650000.070.07FF26.964586.964192433.9371804577800.328251111067361622415220DRYL
2023-07-06 12:00:08FORECAST2023285061.59242.47652.0340000.120.12FF29.592587.592192433.9371804577800.421883982128311622415220DRYL
2023-07-06 08:00:08FORECAST2023285063.39242.4452.9160000.070.07FF31.392594.392192433.9371804577800.489054273614851622415220DRYL
2023-07-06 04:00:10FORECAST2023285062.31242.87252.5920000.070.07FF30.312585.312192433.9371804577800.448591083868441622415220DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:06FORECAST2023285064.43641.84653.1410000.070.07FF32.436583.436192433.9371804577800.528280600933081632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:04FORECAST2023285065.46242.18853.8250000.070.07FF33.462584.462192433.9371804577800.566567079713771632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:05FORECAST2023285065.31841.59453.456000.060.070.13FF33.318581.318192433.9371804577800.561222716966341632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:08FORECAST2023285062.72641.1851.9530000.080.08FF30.726582.726192433.9371804577800.464061939802521622415220DRYL
2023-07-05 08:00:06FORECAST2023285062.18641.25251.7190000.080.08FF30.186575.186192433.9371804577800.443896940897421622415220DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:10FORECAST2023285061.37640.94651.1610000.070.07FF29.376580.376192433.9371804577800.413935670301831622415220DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:08FORECAST2023285061.21444.63652.9250000.110.11FF29.214572.214192433.9371804577800.407997296834471622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:07FORECAST2023285061.3444.54652.9430000.070.07FF29.34574.34192433.9371804577800.412614279214571622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:04FORECAST2023285060.92643.0751.9980000.070.07FF28.926561.926192433.9371804577800.397493008058821622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023285065.6647.19256.4260000.070.07FF33.66578.66192433.9371804577800.573895556301161632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:07FORECAST2023285063.0545.03254.0410000.070.07FF31.05574.05192433.9371804577800.476208792745531622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:23FORECAST2023285060.76444.29452.5290000.070.07FF28.764563.764192433.9371804577800.391616317543741622415220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:05FORECAST2023285063.46446.4954.9770000.070.07FF31.464558.464192433.9371804577800.491760480915591622415220DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:09FORECAST2023285062.56445.03253.7980000.070.07FF30.564567.564192433.9371804577800.458000340773451622415220DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023285062.76242.74652.7540000.070.07FF30.762576.762192433.9371804577800.465410145586681622415220DRYL
2023-07-03 12:00:05FORECAST2023285063.64445.554.5720000.070.07FF31.644579.644192433.9371804577800.498527386105951622415220DRYL
2023-07-03 09:27:29FORECAST2023285063.547.33655.4180000.070.07FF31.5587.5192433.9371804577800.493113734590581622415220DRYL
2023-07-03 08:00:05FORECAST2023285063.4147.44455.42730.5110752000.070.07FF31.41584.41192446.1640922064313.612946168850.48973078306914162241124DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:19FORECAST2023285063.35648.23655.79630.0371662000.070.07FF31.356581.356192445.9813333411313.3960154316650.48770135112052162241124DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:07FORECAST2023285047.67842.81845.2480000.070.07FF15.678557.678192433.9371804577800.0656024733389241612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:05FORECAST2023285047.89444.0645.9770000.070.07FF15.894566.894192433.9371804577800.0682495845239991612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 16:00:07FORECAST2023285048.05644.07846.0670000.110.11FF16.056552.056192433.9371804577800.0702882621467661612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:11FORECAST2023285048.93843.84446.391000.010.120.13FF16.938574.938192433.9371804577800.082214952549421612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:10FORECAST2023285048.93843.84446.391000.020.160.18FF16.938574.938192433.9371804577800.082214952549421612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-02 04:00:13FORECAST2023285045.35645.33845.3470000.090.09FF13.356562.356192433.9371804577800.0419102216675491612415217.5DRYL