MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 1, 2023

[ Friday, June 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 2, 2023 ]

DAY 274 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/02/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.574
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 395

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.48 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 181
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -11

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-02 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023274-1160.5899441.8400651.2150001.481.48FF28.58994394.58994181426.93827654317 00.5736699301128916 31215215DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:01FORECAST2023274-1060.24242.96251.6020001.481.48FF28.242394.242182427.5866983106800.560763057853571631215215DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:01FORECAST2023274-1058.6442.0850.360001.481.48FF26.64392.64182427.5866983106800.50071303191961631215215DRYL
2023-07-01 08:00:02FORECAST2023274-1058.31642.6250.4680001.481.48FF26.316392.316182427.5866983106800.488521764071211621215212.5DRYL
2023-07-01 04:00:16FORECAST2023274-1058.8242.36850.5940001.481.48FF26.82392.82182427.5866983106800.507486399700421631215215DRYL
2023-07-01 00:00:04FORECAST2023274-1159.23443.12451.1790001.481.48FF27.234390.234181426.9382765431700.523053749124131631215215DRYL
2023-06-30 20:00:02FORECAST2023274-1160.78243.5252.1510001.481.48FF28.782392.782181426.9382765431700.580761679520661631215215DRYL
2023-06-30 16:00:03FORECAST2023274-1160.11644.18652.1510001.481.48FF28.116392.116181426.9382765431700.556072346855811631215215DRYL
2023-06-30 12:00:03FORECAST2023274-1159.68443.30451.4940001.481.48FF27.684391.684181426.9382765431700.539934187484931631215215DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:04FORECAST2023274-1161.08843.64652.3670001.481.48FF29.088394.088181426.9382765431700.592005724256411631215215DRYL
2023-06-30 04:00:09FORECAST2023274-1159.97243.44851.710001.481.48FF27.972391.972181426.9382765431700.550701938012261631215215DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023274-1160.1743.75451.9620001.481.48FF28.17387.17181426.9382765431700.55808365286341631215215DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:03FORECAST2023274-1160.92643.82652.3760001.481.48FF28.926388.926181426.9382765431700.586061806818571631215215DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:03FORECAST2023274-1162.02444.653.3120001.481.48FF30.024391.024181426.9382765431700.625895171550531631215215DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:04FORECAST2023274-1160.33242.63851.4850001.481.48FF28.332388.332181426.9382765431700.564108389428331631215215DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023274-1161.23243.48452.3580001.481.48FF29.232391.232181426.9382765431700.597271537633141631215215DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:16FORECAST2023274-1159.6343.84451.7370001.481.48FF27.63387.63181426.9382765431700.537911727156931631215215DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2023274-1161.59244.76253.1770001.511.51FF29.592386.592181426.9382765431700.610357166526871631215215DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023274-1161.77245.37453.5730.1147752001.491.49FF29.772387.772181426.988109580570.0490076456747310.616854380487341631214212DRYL
2023-06-28 16:00:06FORECAST2023274-1161.5244.65453.0870.3425712001.491.49FF29.52384.52181427.086970911410.146307696129490.6077495093571631214212DRYL
2023-06-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023274-1161.48444.3352.9070001.491.49FF29.484386.484181426.9382765431700.606443856464871631215215DRYL
2023-06-28 08:00:07FORECAST2023274-1162.22244.90653.5640001.521.52FF30.222387.222181426.9382765431700.632950685904671631215215DRYL
2023-06-28 04:00:14FORECAST2023274-1160.3544.25852.3040001.491.49FF28.35381.35181426.9382765431700.564776913635981631215215DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:05FORECAST2023274-1160.96243.57452.2680001.531.53FF28.962383.962181426.9382765431700.587384433168631631215215DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023274-1160.13443.23251.6830001.511.51FF28.134381.134181426.9382765431700.556742945292451631215215DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:06FORECAST2023274-1160.45843.23251.8450001.521.52FF28.458382.458181426.9382765431700.568784106577131631215215DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:08FORECAST2023274-1160.60242.31451.4580001.511.51FF28.602383.602181426.9382765431700.574115968134611631215215DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023274-1160.47643.14251.8090001.521.52FF28.476383.476181426.9382765431700.569451295892941631215215DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:06FORECAST2023274-1160.87243.6152.24119.5227424001.491.49FF28.872382.872181435.20912524678.49647564232060.58407604042762163121226DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:21FORECAST2023274-1161.32243.84452.58319.206599866667001.481.48FF29.322384.322181435.078431676678.35637734783060.60055379976416163121226DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:08FORECAST2023274-1163.30242.54852.9250001.591.59FF31.302382.302181426.9382765431700.670595206728271631215215DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:01FORECAST2023274-1162.43845.17653.8070001.581.58FF30.438382.438181426.9382765431700.640596669065871631215215DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023274-1162.29445.28453.7890001.591.59FF30.294380.294181426.9382765431700.635505383214981631215215DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023274-1162.11444.74453.4290001.621.62FF30.114384.114181426.9382765431700.629107613732771631215215DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:21FORECAST2023274-1164.16645.57254.8690001.541.54FF32.166385.166181426.9382765431700.699534643221051641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:05FORECAST2023274-1162.65444.25853.4560001.571.57FF30.654376.654181426.9382765431700.648186792558841631215215DRYL
2023-06-25 20:00:04FORECAST2023274-1163.0542.9853.0152.0568384001.561.56FF31.05382.05181427.829114702930.879975351758990.66194797707311631214212DRYL
2023-06-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023274-1163.2343.57453.4021.9879584001.51.5FF31.23378.23181427.799357314150.850447325887270.668133605128121631214212DRYL
2023-06-25 12:00:04FORECAST2023274-1163.19445.6854.4370001.421.42FF31.194380.194181426.9382765431700.666900070564381631215215DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:04FORECAST2023274-1161.7944.43853.1140.2218752001.421.42FF29.79373.79181427.034597102390.0947483866390120.617502331664411631214212DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:10FORECAST2023274-1163.30244.20453.7530001.431.43FF31.302378.302181426.9382765431700.670595206728271631215215DRYL
2023-06-25 00:00:09FORECAST2023274-1168.73848.03858.3880001.481.48FF36.738380.738181426.9382765431700.830075242471471641215135DRYL
2023-06-24 20:00:05FORECAST2023274-1168.64847.46258.0551.9859712001.471.47FF36.648378.648181427.798498731030.849595497883060.827917442814761641214128DRYL
2023-06-24 16:00:05FORECAST2023274-1164.4947.44455.9671.8186912001.441.44FF32.49378.49181427.726208743430.777901891851050.710083210067581641214214DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023274-1164.59846.27455.4360001.421.42FF32.598386.598181426.9382765431700.713560441733621641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:07FORECAST2023274-1163.66246.18454.9230.6811872001.411.41FF31.662370.662181427.233821413060.291026210553660.682790923114981631214212DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:12FORECAST2023274-1163.4144.88854.1490.3841771047619001.491.49FF31.41369.41181427.10502130740.164083970515140.674273769052171631214212DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:07FORECAST2023274-1162.00645.71653.8610001.481.48FF30.006369.006181426.9382765431700.625251624882381631215215DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023274-1162.22245.9554.0862.0780936001.471.47FF30.222368.222181427.838296277410.889088025328990.632950685904671631214212DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:05FORECAST2023274-1164.5265057.2631.1741912001.531.53FF32.526375.526181427.447400995870.501904976712230.711244482768461641214214DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:09FORECAST2023274-1162.54645.44653.9960.6531632001.511.51FF30.546366.546181427.221672798260.279045474914260.644398884556611631214212DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:07FORECAST2023274-1163.1446.86855.0040.0019520000000028001.691.69FF31.14371.14181426.939124182970.000833385170406370.665046383938061631215215DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:25FORECAST2023274-1162.34845.69854.0230.13088965454545001.441.44FF30.348370.348181426.995104983210.0558892417838480.637417473093751631214212DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:07FORECAST2023274-1160.36840.08250.2250001.51.5FF28.368358.368181426.9382765431700.565445252760051631215215DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:07FORECAST2023274-1161.23241.4551.3413.1993816001.521.52FF29.232360.232181428.321955098041.37036538201670.597271537633141631214212DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:07FORECAST2023274-1162.99645.60854.3022.4589216001.481.48FF30.996369.996181428.002717958391.05242512804660.660083639953791631214212DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:05FORECAST2023274-1176.65849.76663.2120001.551.55FF44.658394.658181426.9382765431700.955722726261311651215140DRYM
2023-06-22 08:00:09FORECAST2023274-1176.65851.18863.9230001.481.48FF44.658394.658181426.9382765431700.955722726261311651215140DRYM
2023-06-22 04:00:19FORECAST2023274-1166.2947.7557.020.46705892631578001.481.48FF34.29368.29181427.140973252290.199500004352690.76529745122721641214214DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:09FORECAST2023274-1150.43241.50445.9680.9392912001.441.44FF18.432366.432181427.345670789050.401402027930250.2199027114732161121428DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:09FORECAST2023274-1151.54841.43246.491.927188001.431.43FF19.548378.548181427.773099094030.824399183296830.252314129449921621214210DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:07FORECAST2023274-1150.21644.49247.3542.38524001.251.25FF18.216375.216181427.970918491751.02081335362320.21391703374356161121428DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023274-1148.90245.17647.0391.1176512001.281.28FF16.902380.902181427.422920267590.477709739744580.17959572294097161121428DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:10FORECAST2023274-1148.90245.17647.0392.0237184001.291.29FF16.902372.902181427.814806921910.865776696560310.17959572294097161121428DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:12FORECAST2023274-1140.87439.77640.3254.383841416666700.032.032.06FF8.874342.874181428.83136870641.8799287149010.046905958809262161121428DRYL