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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 7, 2023

[ Tuesday, June 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 8, 2023 ]

DAY 250 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/08/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.946
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 386

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 54 in
SWE DAY: 157
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 23.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-08 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023250-3569.8100854.9100462.3600654.4270565000.30.3FF37.81008385.81008157434.79486897659 23.6646048996990.9457850505782216 5121118DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2023250-3464.52650.05457.2951.903352000.30.3FF32.526380.526158434.3685743083622.5451850100650.8719941703696165121124DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:01FORECAST2023250-3464.52649.9157.21854.9095512000.30.3FF32.526380.526158435.6125035250823.9192870656710.8719941703696165121124DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:02FORECAST2023250-3465.31850.6357.97454.8030824000.30.3FF33.318381.318158435.5686100605723.8705024280030.88612335426682165121124DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:11FORECAST2023250-3465.33649.24457.2954.560715686957000.30.3FF33.336381.336158435.4686462317623.7594809976350.88643105322937165121124DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023250-3566.36247.58856.97551.1130232000.30.3FF34.362375.362157433.4161131570722.1532078470510.90300422825963165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2023250-3566.66848.97457.82156.7089136000.30.3FF34.668375.668157435.7374785017924.710199020640.90758631655482165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2023250-3567.15449.31658.23556.6168112000.30.3FF35.154376.154157435.6995377481824.6679184686160.91453252285696165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2023250-3567.74848.97458.36153.668452000.30.3FF35.748376.748157434.4802859885823.3178843735240.92248384402269165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:04FORECAST2023250-3567.78451.15259.46853.662548000.30.3FF35.784376.784157434.4778353020223.3151876918310.92294711329497165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:14FORECAST2023250-3566.59650.82858.71254.2627855000.30.3FF34.596374.596157434.7267994314623.5894870686510.90652281253671165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:05FORECAST2023250-3568.77452.39460.58452.9054784000.30.3FF36.774381.774157434.1632791997922.9696159897780.93488114086097165121118DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:04FORECAST2023250-3569.4451.15260.29657.2244712000.30.3FF37.44383.44157435.9496939874424.9469907082330.94206864045296165121118DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2023250-3567.6451.90859.77457.3072256000.30.3FF35.64379.64157435.9837317450424.9850180730430.92108138827459165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023250-3567.60451.24259.42355.0104712000.30.3FF35.604379.604157435.0363911247323.9315568649190.92060967123382165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023250-3568.23451.74659.9954.9102016000.30.3FF36.234380.234157434.9949069592123.8856580361040.92856236139736165121118DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:14FORECAST2023250-3569.36851.92660.64754.483615885714000.30.3FF37.368382.368157434.8182991136323.6904731889870.94132293693582165121118DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023250-3568.19851.60259.954.2666264000.30.3FF36.198381.198157434.7283913228423.5912431973890.92812499188728165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:05FORECAST2023250-3568.68451.38660.03557.8339416000.30.3FF36.684382.684157436.2002079838925.2271773544480.93385912830677165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:06FORECAST2023250-3569.18852.57460.88157.6204136000.30.3FF37.188384.188157436.1124845168425.1289817339840.93942582077212165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023250-3568.37851.33259.85556.1155824000.30.3FF36.378382.378157435.4929054027324.4379380177420.93029150489594165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:05FORECAST2023250-3569.47651.63860.55755.8727312000.30.3FF37.476385.476157435.3926949740624.3265790127290.94243869782294165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:15FORECAST2023250-3568.28852.14260.21555.424574072727000.30.3FF36.288383.288157435.2076044782924.1211961114210.9292145950308165121118DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023250-3565.3950.84658.11854.517960.003937010.003937010.30.30393701FF33.39375.39157434.8325247704423.7061821921340.8873506032476165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:04FORECAST2023250-3566.41651.2658.83858.10111760.003937010.003937010.30.30393701FF34.416374.416157436.3099046093625.3500930777530.90382468638421165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:05FORECAST2023250-3566.21849.85658.03758.24428960.003937010.003937010.30.30393701FF34.218374.218157436.3686572757325.4159824467310.90079132669769165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023250-3565.24648.03856.64257.768624000.30.3FF33.246367.246157436.1733786788425.1971359117070.88488663758621165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023250-3562.88848.00255.44558.2116208000.30.3FF30.888360.888157436.3552530503825.4009465246570.83904245970709164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:15FORECAST2023250-3566.12850.16258.14557.496605547826000.30.3FF34.128370.128157436.061598799425.0720617407230.89938970697768165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:06FORECAST2023250-3567.17250.55858.86558.2091416000.30.3FF35.172374.172157436.3542357727625.3998054978570.91478209238208165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2023250-3565.13848.70456.92161.1655304000.30.3FF33.138368.138157437.5627763941726.7637593014460.88301376227277165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023250-3566.18250.97258.57760.4680712000.30.3FF34.182372.182157437.278479820126.441386251990.90023239627869165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023250-3568.70251.1759.93658.2858544000.30.3FF36.702381.702157436.3857099811525.4351139542020.93406451528926165121118DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023250-3569.63852.44861.04358.1723992000.30.3FF37.638379.638157436.3391586983525.3828957263930.94408107311927165121118DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:10FORECAST2023250-3569.02652.5260.77357.739896690909000.30.3FF37.026378.026157436.1615774828725.1839244244050.93767783637164165121118DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:06FORECAST2023250-3565.78650.68458.23566.2431096000.30.3FF33.786379.786157439.6173761529829.1216220305660.89393228436991165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:05FORECAST2023250-3564.47250.0957.28169.4032848000.30.3FF32.472362.472157440.8828007641530.5987145848560.87098843619063165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023250-3563.82449.65856.74169.4967648000.30.3FF31.824363.824157440.9200783765730.6425189825340.8584928957742165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:07FORECAST2023250-3564.63446.83255.73368.5021376000.30.3FF32.634365.634157440.5229902856630.1767664965110.87398931455728165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023250-3565.15648.45256.80468.07272000.30.3FF33.156368.156157440.351242275329.9759068170590.88332739404941165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:23FORECAST2023250-3563.9547.89455.92268.770303116667000.30.3FF31.95365.95157440.6301496275230.3022689522270.86098449264559165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:07FORECAST2023250-3570.62851.36860.99860.0698864000.30.3FF38.628391.628157437.115946740226.2575052643120.95333129460152165121118DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:04FORECAST2023250-3570.37651.861.08860.1776344000.30.3FF38.376392.376157437.1599440861726.3072512895420.9511015717316165121118DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:06FORECAST2023250-3567.74848.8358.28960.7811216000.30.3FF35.748383.748157437.4061469393426.5860362057080.92248384402269165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:05FORECAST2023250-3566.43442.38654.4161.6598336000.30.3FF34.434372.434157437.7639582876526.9924528240940.90409703924412165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:06FORECAST2023250-3566.34446.20256.27361.8617504000.30.3FF34.344372.344157437.8460659896727.0859240478750.90272960744902165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:14FORECAST2023250-3568.61247.69658.15460.843733854545000.30.3FF36.612376.612157437.4316690700626.6149760524490.93303263833604165121118DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:07FORECAST2023250-3568.16250.2759.21660.573792800.090.30.39FF36.162378.162157437.3216061862526.4902283600890.9276855788356165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:08FORECAST2023250-3567.8251.49459.65763.271684800.030.30.33FF35.82370.82157438.4182313397727.7394601439030.92340828253905165121124DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:07FORECAST2023250-3569.74650.7260.23362.8394136000.30.3FF37.746374.746157438.2430291602927.538934966720.94515536420761165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023250-3568.0950.77459.43260.3428088000.30.3FF36.09386.09157437.2273673031326.38352742730.92680060207693165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:05FORECAST2023250-3567.85651.54859.70260.0086424000.30.3FF35.856387.856157437.0909332659726.229233510640.92386735656254165121124DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:16FORECAST2023250-3568.30651.92660.11659.480565090909000.30.3FF36.306386.306157436.8750927102325.9855773885480.92943098993206165121118DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023250-3570.03453.27661.65555.5525592000.30.3FF38.034408.034157435.2604842883324.1798338208480.94794074033889165131119DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:08FORECAST2023250-3571.99654.1463.06857.9203784000.30.3FF39.996420.996157436.2357051910125.2669371162540.96405437412125165131119DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:05FORECAST2023250-3562.94247.73255.33760.766893600.130.30.43FF30.942395.942157437.4003467279226.5794603302190.84020979910764164122127DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:07FORECAST2023250-3567.7348.00257.86659.0276736000.30.3FF35.73396.73157436.6897520296125.7767801472690.92225142037929165121124DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:06FORECAST2023250-3574.71455.27464.99458.01297280.086614220.086614220.30.38661422FF42.714403.714157436.2737225094825.3095355972970.97942168134243165131119DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:15FORECAST2023250-3574.15656.69665.42657.3122104190480.086614220.196614220.30.49661422FF42.156410.156157435.9857818252424.9873088676810.976826176357381651321118DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:07FORECAST2023250-3548.23641.66644.95162.0147632000.30.3FF16.236370.236157437.9082592666127.1567770017430.37886194844448162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-28 20:00:07FORECAST2023250-3548.25441.70244.97864.055304000.30.3FF16.254385.254157438.7353470016928.1033260277390.37946909169373162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023250-3551.81845.01448.41663.3416088000.30.3FF19.818393.818157438.4465538966627.771910096630.50361460210862163121123DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:06FORECAST2023250-3548.54240.87444.70862.2052856000.30.3FF16.542380.542157437.9856648422627.2450233702180.38922285437663162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:05FORECAST2023250-3548.54240.80244.67262.5723176000.30.3FF16.542370.542157438.1346773149727.4151021805260.38922285437663162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:15FORECAST2023250-3543.4342.3542.8964.12294792381000.30.3FF11.43358.43157438.7626916175228.1347572255010.2313091389425161121122DRYL