Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 5, 2023

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DAY 248 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/06/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.39°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.88°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.63°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.721 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 28 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 383 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 60 in SWE DAY: 155 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.05 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 26.36 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -37 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-06 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2023	248	-37	60.38996	42.87992	51.63494	60.4624775	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.38996	383.38996	155	436.05080620669	26.364712059129	0.72065566578171	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-36	60.206	37.814	49.01	59.7794072	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.206	383.206	156	436.38468018085	26.086817492373	0.71510260301589	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-05 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	248	-36	59.882	38.912	49.397	61.7616952	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.882	382.882	156	437.19586779358	27.001957929367	0.70519630601616	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-05 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	248	-36	59.486	38.75	49.118	61.7629744	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.486	382.486	156	437.19638994746	27.002549440097	0.69287772921509	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	248	-36	59.81	38.102	48.956	61.365023085714	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.81	382.81	156	437.03386920302	26.818593472882	0.7029735490388	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	60.89	37.616	49.253	61.0686248	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.89	383.89	155	436.29979978812	26.644228773576	0.73547911566689	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	61.322	38.012	49.667	64.6567024	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.322	384.322	155	437.76588739521	28.304498702184	0.74795566579973	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	61.988	38.264	50.126	64.588708	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.988	384.988	155	437.73822892071	28.272946648197	0.76656558029426	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	60.998	39.272	50.135	62.9376544	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.998	383.998	155	437.06515197523	27.507855485301	0.73862741922878	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	62.024	38.804	50.414	62.8732024	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	30.024	385.024	155	437.03881985574	27.478030177447	0.76754936896215	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-04 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	61.538	38.426	49.982	62.409694872727	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.538	384.538	155	436.84932499629	27.263633078375	0.75407563547012	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	60.908	38.822	49.865	61.042864	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.908	380.908	155	436.28922554806	26.632343859796	0.73600516803678	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	61.142	39.542	50.342	64.789464	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.142	379.142	155	437.81987783047	28.366115213182	0.7427950566119	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	60.962	38.84	49.901	64.788972	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.962	378.962	155	437.81967778142	28.365886844829	0.73758012412124	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	57.83	37.184	47.507	63.6906312	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	25.83	374.83	155	437.37246447395	27.856528331845	0.63910652412086	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	56.516	36.536	46.526	63.861552	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	24.516	372.516	155	437.44214058508	27.935734007965	0.59432219737234	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-03 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	59.396	37.076	48.236	63.805324747826	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.396	376.396	155	437.4192228031	27.909675561893	0.69004675507849	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-03 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	60.062	38.768	49.415	64.6935048	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.062	379.062	155	437.78085572755	28.321577891358	0.71071940597629	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	58.514	37.904	48.209	67.2675112	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	26.514	376.514	155	438.82429617965	29.518618258097	0.66172720980888	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	59.918	38.048	48.983	67.04188	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.918	377.918	155	438.73310324812	29.413492059988	0.7063048041311	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	61.736	39.146	50.441	65.126032	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.736	383.736	155	437.95666908216	28.522380045258	0.75961489014294	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-02 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	60.8	40.55	50.675	65.2521808	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.8	379.8	155	438.00790958706	28.580971308205	0.73284088812293	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-02 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	61.556	41.198	51.377	64.773627090909	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.556	379.556	155	437.81343835813	28.358764391598	0.75458201416418	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-02 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	61.916	41.054	51.485	72.8713336	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	29.916	384.916	155	441.07249537711	32.14154095241	0.76459110317049	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-06-01 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	58.748	39.578	49.163	75.6728408	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	26.748	371.748	155	442.18449189056	33.461356659064	0.66933870489025	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	58.604	39.416	49.01	75.6322016	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	26.604	373.604	155	442.16841755061	33.442170897341	0.66466274325109	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-01 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	58.856	38.714	48.785	74.3455232	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	26.856	376.856	155	441.65862875101	32.835341830288	0.67282847556979	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	59.504	39.704	49.604	74.237972	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.504	377.504	155	441.61594089524	32.784671854935	0.69344255556592	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-01 04:00:21	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	58.262	39.578	48.92	74.863526316667	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	26.262	377.262	155	441.8640647063	33.079502036529	0.65345577866969	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	63.932	42.728	53.33	67.1593112	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	31.932	391.932	155	438.78057171404	29.468200964257	0.8162919924477	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	63.968	42.782	53.375	67.2668624	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	31.968	392.968	155	438.82403403031	29.51831591493	0.81714597566946	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-31 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	62.816	42.656	52.736	67.3630976	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	30.816	389.816	155	438.86291339513	29.563165268056	0.7886014396691	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-31 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	59.504	44.564	52.034	67.4243024	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.504	382.504	155	438.88763540945	29.591692649468	0.69344255556592	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-31 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	59.216	42.44	50.828	67.711532	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.216	382.216	155	439.00360266859	29.72560649021	0.68435103604675	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-31 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	59.342	44.384	51.863	66.980843454545	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.342	384.342	155	438.7084252415	29.385060353291	0.68834273619127	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-31 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	60.314	38.138	49.226	67.1273312	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	28.314	381.314	155	438.76764604521	29.453301095921	0.71836909306615	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-30 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	56.984	38.498	47.741	69.8452968	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	24.984	371.984	155	439.86245393157	30.722323646027	0.61044881595955	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-30 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	57.362	36.788	47.075	69.6736872	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	25.362	374.362	155	439.79355218536	30.642038387539	0.6233381581037	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.598	40.73	52.664	67.6188	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.598	385.598	155	438.96617191754	29.682365785657	0.83168859705839	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.688	40.91	52.799	67.3090368	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.688	387.688	155	438.8410738085	29.537969986328	0.83370382268512	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-30 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.436	42.512	53.474	66.977169090909	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.436	385.436	155	438.70693951813	29.383348869461	0.82802188461034	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	71.69	52.862	62.276	63.5816056	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	39.69	403.69	155	437.32800422653	27.806016682566	0.94471012183905	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	73.688	54.842	64.265	66.2640096	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	41.688	413.688	155	438.41831187677	29.051355227018	0.96203132906289	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-29 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	70.97	52.61	61.79	67.5244152	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	38.97	401.97	155	438.92806496844	29.638360901862	0.93712393052307	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-29 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	67.046	49.946	58.496	66.4991856	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.046	398.046	155	438.51354934336	29.160793905899	0.88095509015312	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	69.116	50.99	60.053	66.4011792	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.116	395.116	155	438.47386733814	29.115181839637	0.91387675902792	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-29 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	72.014	51.278	61.646	65.919061619048	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	40.014	401.014	155	438.27851791297	28.89090862861	0.94787984797676	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-29 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	70.142	49.604	59.873	65.66314	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	38.142	396.142	155	438.17472368753	28.771928225956	0.92742734267392	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	69.998	50.63	60.314	67.6479864	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.998	410.998	155	438.97795379477	29.695974648208	0.92563024285341	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	67.64	48.704	58.172	67.459452	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.64	413.64	155	438.9018313971	29.608077027845	0.89119681952881	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2023-05-28 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.886	51.368	58.127	65.793048	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.886	406.886	155	438.22741895486	28.832317610213	0.83808236233442	16	4	1	3	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-28 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.418	50.27	57.344	66.0888384	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.418	397.418	155	438.3473371277	28.969866326503	0.82761135490324	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-28 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	59.954	47.732	53.843	66.57478072381	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.954	395.954	155	438.5441504551	29.195980654257	0.70741137119285	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-28 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	63.716	46.58	55.148	68.8804664	0	0.14	0.32	0.46	F	F	31.716	381.716	155	439.4746812252	30.271221013783	0.81111618401833	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-27 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.4	46.904	55.652	70.702992	0	0	0.32	0.32	F	F	32.4	385.4	155	440.20637120927	31.123907541958	0.82720020214541	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-27 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	68.378	48.938	58.658	70.4642736	0	0	0.32	0.32	F	F	36.378	389.378	155	440.11072551335	31.012082576867	0.90302118674558	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	62.096	37.148	49.622	70.0444008	0	0.32	0.32	0.64	F	F	30.096	386.096	155	439.94235713061	30.815498791753	0.76951002275617	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-27 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.274	38.894	51.584	68.9767608	0	0.31	0.32	0.63	F	F	32.274	395.274	155	439.51342538322	30.316212411047	0.82430469767231	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-27 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	64.004	40.748	52.376	69.804997425	0	0.03	0.32	0.35	F	F	32.004	390.004	155	439.8462763152	30.703468185578	0.81799748248251	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-27 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	48.974	43.25	46.112	69.4070048	0	0	0.37	0.37	F	F	16.974	375.974	155	439.68641881914	30.517317381475	0.33173417519982	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-26 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	49.208	43.736	46.472	71.844196	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	17.208	382.208	155	440.66280928458	31.659065240152	0.33935526529131	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-26 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	50.936	46.868	48.902	71.6989576	0	0	0.39	0.39	F	F	18.936	383.936	155	440.60479291383	31.590904365486	0.39749307042466	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-26 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	43.754	38.75	41.252	71.0625064	0	0.05	0.4	0.45	F	F	11.754	366.754	155	440.35030603209	31.292396440647	0.18363938668419	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	43.592	38.66	41.126	71.0793328	0	0.05	0.33	0.38	F	F	11.592	368.592	155	440.35703941339	31.300284555287	0.17981686911129	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-26 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	248	-37	50.594	49.244	49.919	69.781587	0	0.06	0.34	0.4	F	F	18.594	390.594	155	439.83687776947	30.692515351879	0.38575669114871	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L