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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 30, 2023

[ Thursday, June 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 1, 2023 ]

DAY 273 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/01/2023 04:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.23°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.819
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 388

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.48 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 180
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.29 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -12

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-01 04:00:14OBSERVATION2023273-1266.3000848.1499657.225020001.481.48FF34.30008388.30008180426.2873860854 00.8185778402864116 41215217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 00:00:01FORECAST2023273-1162.79845.89654.3470001.481.48FF30.798384.798181426.9382765431700.718913333013351641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 12:00:02FORECAST2023273-1164.09445.6854.8870001.481.48FF32.094386.094181426.9382765431700.758613302288911641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:02FORECAST2023273-1164.65244.88854.770001.481.48FF32.652386.652181426.9382765431700.774719920356471641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 04:00:09FORECAST2023273-1163.87845.12254.50001.481.48FF31.878385.878181426.9382765431700.752214782844531641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:02FORECAST2023273-1264.05845.64454.8510001.481.48FF32.058381.058180426.287386085400.757553144575261641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:02FORECAST2023273-1264.14846.1355.1391.0753552001.481.48FF32.148382.148180426.755489577480.458913734845690.760198812811071641214214DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:02FORECAST2023273-1264.5846.86855.7240.9691816001.481.48FF32.58382.58180426.709328940310.41355883015730.772676414705371641214214DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023273-1264.4945.5955.040001.481.48FF32.49382.49180426.287386085400.770107433817131641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023273-1264.79645.7755.2830001.481.48FF32.796383.796180426.287386085400.778775614437731641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:16FORECAST2023273-1263.62646.43655.0310001.481.48FF31.626381.626180426.287386085400.744637061015021641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2023273-1264.97647.1256.048000.031.481.51FF32.976378.976180426.287386085400.783786112578411641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:03FORECAST2023273-1265.31847.7556.5342.863480800.011.481.49FF33.318380.318180427.531037852771.22422691829550.793123188275161641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 16:00:05FORECAST2023273-1264.20246.32855.2653.076123200.011.481.49FF32.202377.202180427.623031276261.31542112736320.761778633747621641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2023273-1264.02246.05855.040.36441600.011.481.49FF32.022379.022180426.446160083210.155403803872880.756490473535891641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 08:00:06FORECAST2023273-1264.4946.83255.6610.19369200.041.481.52FF32.49379.49180426.371794895720.0825848056969420.770107433817131641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 04:00:13FORECAST2023273-1262.76246.4954.6260.7813213647058800.011.481.49FF30.762374.762180426.627623252160.33333327682060.71776716739511641214214DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:05FORECAST2023273-1263.01446.54454.779000.011.521.53FF31.014377.014180426.287386085400.725742758782451641215217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:03FORECAST2023273-1262.20446.23854.2212.388720800.011.51.51FF30.204375.204180427.325467634191.02076123290750.699720515229211641214214DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:06FORECAST2023273-1262.36646.09454.232.32702400.021.51.52FF30.366376.366180427.298734826460.994334411110820.70501335437531641214214DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:07FORECAST2023273-1262.94245.01453.9780.360106400.011.51.51FF30.942376.942180426.444283273370.153565315650150.72347540130321641214214DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023273-1262.645.9554.2750.14451200.011.511.52FF30.6376.6180426.350366734280.0616127441975020.712581805940841641214214DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:06FORECAST2023273-1262.83446.16654.522.1219784001.491.49FF30.834375.834180435.664356657519.63775748762730.72005724788265164121227DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:20FORECAST2023273-1262.52845.69854.11321.83909506666700.011.471.48FF30.528376.528180435.547744618959.51196860080550.7102628413012164121227DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:08FORECAST2023273-1261.84444.92453.384000.021.571.59FF29.844372.844180426.287386085400.687807936694681631215215DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:01FORECAST2023273-1263.21247.49855.3552.63627600.041.541.58FF31.212374.212180427.432689516311.12683054098730.731930316988741641214214DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023273-1262.99647.40855.2021.051248800.011.581.59FF30.996371.996180426.745010034470.448615179704720.725176780027011641214214DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023273-1264.25647.10255.6790.68598800.011.611.62FF32.256376.256180426.58614518170.292632976560910.763352744817361641214214DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:20FORECAST2023273-1262.6946.1354.411.0391132181818001.541.54FF30.69374.69180426.739734207080.443430898537970.715468119073311641214214DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:05FORECAST2023273-1262.43845.62654.0320.4059616001.571.57FF30.438368.438180426.464251936350.173128110058880.707351863378271641214214DRYL
2023-06-25 20:00:04FORECAST2023273-1262.9644.79853.8794.7993448001.561.56FF30.96372.96180428.366701946342.05587950347930.724043100238511641214214DRYL
2023-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023273-1261.1644.58252.8714.7699232001.51.5FF29.16369.16180428.354032103092.04321583554210.664633353973171631214212DRYL
2023-06-25 12:00:04FORECAST2023273-1264.50846.79655.6522.4182616001.421.42FF32.508370.508180427.338265980721.03341571883180.77062252417761641214214DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:04FORECAST2023273-1263.3245.4154.3653.0295224001.421.42FF31.32366.32180427.602875074251.29543248834180.735275515091121641214214DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:09FORECAST2023273-1263.1444.6953.9152.744425409523800.011.421.43FF31.14369.14180427.479510370171.17318563031070.729688438707331641214214DRYL
2023-06-25 00:00:09FORECAST2023273-1264.27444.92454.5991.784526400.031.451.48FF32.274366.274180427.063493815870.762106079190650.763876176195631641214214DRYL
2023-06-24 20:00:04FORECAST2023273-1263.44645.73454.595.520597600.021.451.47FF31.446364.446180428.67699959912.3665532151620.739151272160461641214214DRYL
2023-06-24 16:00:05FORECAST2023273-1264.92247.37256.1474.916126400.011.431.44FF32.922367.922180428.416982348042.10615203712960.782289891065611641214214DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023273-1266.81249.80258.3072.6291136001.421.42FF34.812375.812180427.429588262241.12376094354260.831034628732351641214214DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:06FORECAST2023273-1264.1347.49855.8143.7308001.411.41FF32.13361.13180427.905945992321.59643150330820.759670940467721641214214DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:12FORECAST2023273-1264.9448.09256.5163.3763243047619001.491.49FF32.94359.94180427.752819816071.44423224197540.782789292881531641214214DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:06FORECAST2023273-1269.00848.79458.9010.6633768001.481.48FF37.008361.008180426.57630592510.282980824780410.878099920078441651214132DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023273-1269.45847.78658.6224.9980152001.471.47FF37.458360.458180428.45223073492.1414107616870.886482767808031651214132DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:05FORECAST2023273-1270.35848.8359.5944.4640968001.531.53FF38.358365.358180428.222277788591.91162569996480.902001268039671651214132DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:09FORECAST2023273-1265.40849.29857.3533.537168800.021.491.51FF33.408358.408180427.822318401231.51327975659250.795540138959411641214214DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023273-1265.6649.60457.6323.002266400.021.671.69FF33.66361.66180427.591084955311.28374234730090.802217776729031641214214DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:24FORECAST2023273-1265.8449.3757.6053.0084008545454001.441.44FF33.84361.84180427.593738605471.2863733686190.806906005309571641214214DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:07FORECAST2023273-1256.08441.75648.921.8721424001.51.5FF24.084352.084180427.101508334510.7995948428570.478653466741481621214210DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:06FORECAST2023273-1255.90441.70248.8035.725408001.521.52FF23.904352.904180428.765009626122.45485461623350.471894830363681621214210DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:06FORECAST2023273-1263.26644.63653.9515.368609600.021.461.48FF31.266361.266180428.611658529392.30104866465280.733605569292941641214214DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:05FORECAST2023273-1267.24446.97657.112.267533600.061.491.55FF35.244372.244180427.272954069440.968855779723710.841109515322051641214214DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:09FORECAST2023273-1268.61248.39858.5051.843134400.051.431.48FF36.612371.612180427.088923383370.787182286546850.870372293487991651214132DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:18FORECAST2023273-1266.7445.84256.2913.673029326315800.071.411.48FF34.74355.74180427.880999657691.5716194599160.829316526011351641214214DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:08FORECAST2023273-1265.7547.62456.6871.5715112001.441.44FF33.75369.75180426.971036243410.670989765532120.804570411771871641214214DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:08FORECAST2023273-1268.14448.41658.282.59188001.431.43FF36.144381.144180427.413465542971.10780441307150.860811598873861651214132DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:07FORECAST2023273-1266.90248.03857.473.0152952001.251.25FF34.902378.902180427.596720920861.28933034012840.833166616526481641214214DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023273-1272.35650.1861.2681.7728968001.281.28FF40.356386.356180427.058447370340.757130554755850.930812147865241651214132DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:09FORECAST2023273-1268.95449.56859.2612.678964001.291.29FF36.954377.954180427.451171862011.14512630117610.877065579362011651214132DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:12FORECAST2023273-1262.11442.06252.0884.520322216666700.771.292.06FF30.114356.114180428.246508167951.93581220508150.696761641010331631234236DRYL
2023-06-21 00:00:09FORECAST2023273-1252.35848.39850.3784.644799201.11.242.34FF20.358361.358180428.300139294571.98936814435530.342774963113151621244240DRYM
2023-06-20 20:00:07FORECAST2023273-1251.76447.55249.6584.910479200.991.32.29FF19.764359.764180428.414551285192.10372074306320.322428649925111621234230DRYL
2023-06-20 16:00:08FORECAST2023273-1249.62244.27646.9497.087284001.181.18FF17.622340.622180429.349064717993.04291875679080.2536876176186162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-20 12:00:09FORECAST2023273-1243.62835.92439.7766.1509320344461001.151.15FF11.628339.628180428.947717219132.63842825494570.10961812053557161121326DRYL
2023-06-20 08:00:06FORECAST2023273-1240.20831.42435.8165.7429693443551001.181.18FF8.208346.208180428.772553861892.46242763252970.060356479531429161121428DRYL
2023-06-20 04:00:20FORECAST2023273-1242.6240.6441.636.97271470206800.061.131.19FF10.62327.62180429.300008244182.99338647908210.09278833097292161121326DRYL