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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 28, 2023

[ Tuesday, June 27, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 29, 2023 ]

DAY 271 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/29/2023 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.748
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 382

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 178
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -14

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-29 04:00:13OBSERVATION2023271-1465.2899247.5899856.439954.474119285714300.071.411.48FF33.28992382.28992178426.93216677244 1.91014544104840.7481901147416 41214214DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:01FORECAST2023271-1361.08844.27652.6823.36317520.031496080.101496081.411.51149608FF29.088378.088179427.099326081531.43640986141410.612767172242561631224224DRYL
2023-06-28 12:00:02FORECAST2023271-1361.44843.95252.76.33591840.011811030.081811031.411.49181103FF29.448378.448179428.384145507162.71420698978710.62524576622711163121329DRYL
2023-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2023271-1361.84443.89852.8716.30029760.035433090.105433091.411.51543309FF29.844378.844179428.368807555812.69885097015870.638821914148821631223218DRYL
2023-06-28 04:00:11FORECAST2023271-1360.42245.03252.7276.69142216470590.007874020.077874021.411.48787402FF28.422377.422179428.537145770812.86752295561060.58938108136863163121329DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:03FORECAST2023271-1461.6145.3253.4653.91311360.007874020.117874021.411.52787402FF29.61377.61178426.688371741941.66968007042520.630819517377771631224224DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2023271-1461.6144.16852.8898.22718640.011811030.101811031.411.51181103FF29.61377.61178428.5542236563.52579548052520.630819517377771631223218DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2023271-1462.16843.53852.8538.21144240.019685050.109685051.411.51968505FF30.168378.168178428.547451423643.5189927130320.649801999313171631223218DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:06FORECAST2023271-1462.2444.79853.5196.09515360.007874020.097874021.411.50787402FF30.24378.24178427.634667132672.60649898085850.652225496157231631223218DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:27FORECAST2023271-1462.16845.46453.8165.96260880.007874020.107874021.411.51787402FF30.168378.168178427.577335309822.54947638219890.649801999313171631223218DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:05FORECAST2023271-1461.6145.24853.42927.966544800.081.411.49FF29.61377.61178436.8355382776412.2167806514740.63081951737777163121123DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:19FORECAST2023271-1462.07845.21253.64527.6074998666670.007874020.067874021.411.47787402FF30.078379.078178436.6885846564112.0558800426770.64676404322279163121123DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:07FORECAST2023271-1461.17844.52852.8534.84326960.015748040.175748041.411.58574804FF29.178376.178178427.092398227442.06852362872610.61589832662721631224224DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:01FORECAST2023271-1461.75446.00453.8798.7301880.03937010.16937011.411.5793701FF29.754374.754178428.770445740313.74324660015670.635751028921491631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:05FORECAST2023271-1461.50244.81653.1596.92838560.007874020.177874021.411.58787402FF29.502373.502178427.994637206842.96531188130110.627106656722591631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023271-1462.27644.45653.3666.65355440.007874020.207874021.411.61787402FF30.276377.276178427.875989750822.84689617426090.653434924878321631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:18FORECAST2023271-1461.5244.38452.9526.876004418181800.131.411.54FF29.52377.52178427.972030099962.94273756982560.627726297731851631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023271-1461.9744.97853.4746.225829600.161.411.57FF29.97371.97178427.691171720032.66273235655320.643106134264781631223218DRYL
2023-06-25 20:00:03FORECAST2023271-1462.61844.2453.42910.508709600.151.411.56FF30.618374.618178429.53275603284.51383499683640.664845110810961631223218DRYL
2023-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2023271-1462.47444.4253.44710.441600800.091.411.5FF30.474372.474178429.504054320474.48470987719590.6600585872704163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023271-1460.94444.02452.4848.388386400.011.411.42FF28.944371.944178428.623547752153.59545993868390.6077421137284163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023271-1460.29643.30451.88.695984800.011.411.42FF28.296369.296178428.755751781243.72845350040220.5849179461727163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:09FORECAST2023271-1460.76443.35852.0618.50977980952380.007874020.017874021.411.42787402FF28.764370.764178428.675734282223.64793610842760.60143553494012163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 00:00:08FORECAST2023271-1460.0843.23251.6567.61728480.027559070.067559071.411.47755907FF28.08367.08178428.291678327193.26241969128820.57724161342559163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 20:00:03FORECAST2023271-1459.88243.9751.92611.3508960.015748040.055748041.411.46574804FF27.882366.882178429.892534456794.87966544979540.57017904304936163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023271-1460.0844.27652.17811.09850.007874020.027874021.411.43787402FF28.08368.08178429.784792717454.76996652197460.57724161342559163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:04FORECAST2023271-1460.67443.46652.079.172024800.011.411.42FF28.674371.674178428.960147531553.93443311137110.59827217345823163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:05FORECAST2023271-1458.11841.9950.0549.7078128001.411.41FF26.118363.118178429.189901661744.16649522098250.50652689618049163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:11FORECAST2023271-1458.3742.6250.4959.474073904761900.081.411.49FF26.37360.37178429.089709278254.06522761747490.51566855237926163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:06FORECAST2023271-1459.70245.21252.4577.148133600.021.461.48FF27.702356.702178428.08944510913.06004054638970.56373891769676163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:03FORECAST2023271-1459.10844.29451.70111.337730400.041.431.47FF27.108357.108178429.886916088364.87394195709730.54237552680279163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:04FORECAST2023271-1459.12644.0651.59311.08474400.071.461.53FF27.126360.126178429.778918629144.76398928960090.54302502391442163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:08FORECAST2023271-1459.34243.28651.3149.67477040.023622060.053622061.461.51362206FF27.342358.342178429.175741617694.15217676140090.55080953535729163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023271-1459.28844.18651.7379.22862480.023622060.033622061.661.69362206FF27.288360.288178428.984433254763.95893637954880.54886512096171163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:22FORECAST2023271-1460.42244.38452.4039.2886824545454001.441.44FF28.422361.422178429.010198758293.98493950602720.58938108136863163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023271-1458.7344.18651.4586.579795200.171.331.5FF26.73364.73178427.844133045932.81512677296370.528712600209731631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:06FORECAST2023271-1459.10844.65451.88110.398325600.161.361.52FF27.108366.108178429.485543387844.46593052063970.542375526802791631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023271-1459.25244.00651.62910.90213360.023622060.173622061.311.48362206FF27.252366.252178429.700920870564.68465684737390.547568190086251631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:04FORECAST2023271-1461.05244.49252.7728.6641240.059055150.249055151.31.54905515FF29.052368.052178428.742062986853.71467439773390.61151264116391631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:08FORECAST2023271-1461.19644.29452.7458.54584720.051181130.191181131.291.48118113FF29.196366.196178428.69123640543.66352980229970.616523658359461631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:18FORECAST2023271-1459.50443.59251.5489.65004212631580.074803190.234803191.251.48480319FF27.504354.504178429.165143745394.14146171628930.556635278249581631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:07FORECAST2023271-1462.72646.59854.6627.806233600.161.281.44FF30.726368.726178428.373058910813.34398016580440.668417582358631631223218DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:07FORECAST2023271-1464.25646.81455.5359.254150400.141.291.43FF32.256375.256178428.995384544563.96998780948120.717265879286911641223221DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:06FORECAST2023271-1463.64447.4855.5629.3525504001.251.25FF31.644375.644178429.03759461344.01259572711660.69814092414944163121329DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023271-1466.66844.79855.7339.1765128001.281.28FF34.668371.668178428.962073353813.93637595684570.786459903151171641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:08FORECAST2023271-1463.73445.84254.7889.4699416001.291.29FF31.734369.734178429.087937427014.06343770869820.700989590841231641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:11FORECAST2023271-1458.62243.93451.2789.83037981666670.740157880.740157881.292.03015788FF26.622362.622178429.242416352194.21961598616580.524801979896681631233227DRYL
2023-06-21 00:00:08FORECAST2023271-1459.28845.71652.5028.44608961.02362261.17362261.092.2636226FF27.288374.288178428.648356128243.62040242275190.548865120961711631243236DRYL
2023-06-20 20:00:07FORECAST2023271-1459.77445.84252.8088.70311040.921260341.061260341.162.22126034FF27.774372.774178428.758813099343.73153528537650.566317094951471631243236DRYL
2023-06-20 16:00:07FORECAST2023271-1455.50842.7149.10910.369219200.051.131.18FF23.508355.508178429.473092003694.4533006314880.41252008699691162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-20 12:00:08FORECAST2023271-1457.25442.36849.8118.901212034446100.061.091.15FF25.254365.254178428.843899840423.81723048215830.4751875645377162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-20 08:00:06FORECAST2023271-1459.32442.99851.1618.263386944355100.051.131.18FF27.324374.324178428.569794179733.54143804196970.55016153042913163121329DRYL
2023-06-20 04:00:20FORECAST2023271-1449.143.17846.1399.21672670206800.081.051.13FF17.1356.1178428.979328351773.9537852302550.21068342957589161121326DRYL
2023-06-20 00:00:08FORECAST2023271-1451.99844.648.2998.0698905559777000.770.77FF19.998361.998178428.486551175733.45783957269650.29446904486184162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-19 20:00:07FORECAST2023271-1451.51243.05247.2827.234936575122000.760.76FF19.512368.512178428.126880737943.09747082824380.27941163220597162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-19 16:00:12FORECAST2023271-1456.04840.62248.3358.29219476794210.248031630.358031630.791.14803163FF24.048367.048178428.582183934563.55388694325540.431740793587741621223215DRYL
2023-06-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023271-1464.63441.9953.3128.75513869602990.051181130.051181130.890.94118113FF32.634374.634178428.781163946923.75403856060040.728780295402361641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-19 08:00:08FORECAST2023271-1473.02245.44659.2347.87068495562240.070866180.070866180.870.94086618FF41.022381.022178428.400809291863.37180780466990.915097581701461651213124DRYL
2023-06-19 04:00:22FORECAST2023271-1463.12242.06252.5928.99717356356420.070866180.070866180.961.03086618FF31.122367.122178428.885100938963.85875369197460.68138413432461163121329DRYL
2023-06-19 00:00:07FORECAST2023271-1449.80239.9244.86113.2105885028280.055118140.225118140.680.90511814FF17.802348.802178430.684266314045.68959261691720.22959745298383161122228DRYL
2023-06-18 20:00:06FORECAST2023271-1451.47640.71246.09411.7375055737840.055118140.255118140.931.18511814FF19.476358.476178430.057434846815.04780153856180.278311298874351621222210DRYL
2023-06-18 16:00:09FORECAST2023271-1449.31642.04445.6811.6710010642230.043307110.253307111.21.45330711FF17.316359.316178430.029080241835.01886985314920.21640375669108161122228DRYL
2023-06-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023271-1443.93439.99241.96312.00152573283900.2511.25FF11.934359.934178430.169954218925.16269577505240.10125649641235161122228DRYL
2023-06-18 08:00:07FORECAST2023271-1442.20639.54240.87411.33832443661600.260.891.15FF10.206357.206178429.887169595224.87420020000910.0760807049140981611223212DRYL
2023-06-18 04:00:20FORECAST2023271-1447.15646.27446.7159.807765827689700.040.770.81FF15.156380.156178429.232728461294.20981408632860.16330000382863161121326DRYL