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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 27, 2023

[ Monday, June 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 28, 2023 ]

DAY 270 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/28/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.545
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 360

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 9 in
SWE DAY: 177
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 428.40 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -15

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-28 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023270-1557.9243.6699450.794979.37469176470590.0199999999999820.0699999999999821.671.74FF25.92359.92177428.40422929254 4.0161576003140.5454436166618816 3121329DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:02FORECAST2023270-1457.09242.47649.7846.7185960.055118140.105118141.671.77511814FF25.092359.092178427.904076360242.87491461581760.515118072894681631223218DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2023270-1457.27240.56848.928.87298560.03937010.08937011.671.7593701FF25.272359.272178428.831778904563.80501819904250.52172412976783163121329DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:27FORECAST2023270-1457.27241.61249.4428.78531120.047244120.097244121.671.76724412FF25.272359.272178428.794124406713.76708982364450.521724129767831631223218DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:03FORECAST2023270-1456.78641.73849.26230.77478240.027559070.077559071.671.74755907FF24.786358.786178437.9803111200613.4787487702040.50387921902259163121123DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:18FORECAST2023270-1457.59641.75649.67630.4136710666670.007874020.057874021.671.72787402FF25.596359.596178437.8335618467813.3161259319550.53359879089467163121123DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:07FORECAST2023270-1557.8341.75649.7937.554780.047244120.157244121.671.82724412FF25.83357.83177427.61890852673.23056677775930.542156982821361631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:01FORECAST2023270-1557.9242.60250.26111.59549760.059055150.129055151.671.79905515FF25.92355.92177429.357637429344.97861545435360.545443616661881631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:04FORECAST2023270-1556.96642.6249.7939.65308160.098425250.168425251.671.83842525FF24.966354.966177428.524039113394.13657751712310.510491254724771631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:04FORECAST2023270-1557.93842.0850.0099.44890160.106299270.196299271.671.86629927FF25.938357.938177428.436175044874.04825125987930.546100577581241631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:17FORECAST2023270-1557.99242.7150.3519.63927321818180.090551230.130551231.671.80055123FF25.992358.992177428.518098437054.13060302977040.54807069657261631223218DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023270-1557.70442.96250.3339.05335360.090551230.160551231.671.83055123FF25.704352.704177428.265830551663.87724199878190.537550898541011631223218DRYL
2023-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2023270-1559.1842.51250.84613.28742720.094488240.154488241.671.82448824FF27.18355.18177430.080394295445.7146619293480.591030031997351631222212DRYL
2023-06-25 16:00:02FORECAST2023270-1558.20842.47650.34213.22878080.047244120.087244121.671.75724412FF26.208353.208177430.055393713485.68910853529340.55593886356453163121226DRYL
2023-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023270-1558.0142.72850.36911.083365600.011.671.68FF26.01354.01177429.138252289944.75629614307450.54872714238407163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023270-1558.06441.949.98211.289415200.011.671.68FF26.064352.064177429.22655333924.84571677551110.55069567338556163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:08FORECAST2023270-1558.44241.57650.00911.16697340952400.011.671.68FF26.442353.442177429.174087376924.79257562179470.56443780592525163121329DRYL
2023-06-25 00:00:08FORECAST2023270-1558.142.47650.28810.24269520.015748040.035748041.671.70574804FF26.1350.1177428.777509844714.39183734195440.55200733761547163121329DRYL
2023-06-24 20:00:03FORECAST2023270-1557.97443.35850.66613.98181680.027559070.037559071.671.70755907FF25.974349.974177430.376125180916.01744013737340.54741411931615163121226DRYL
2023-06-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023270-1557.8343.28650.55813.764254400.021.671.69FF25.83350.83177430.28352448085.92253189508230.54215698282136163121226DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:04FORECAST2023270-1558.71243.1650.93611.824593600.011.671.68FF26.712353.712177429.455684347615.07813893662040.57420718283898163121226DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:05FORECAST2023270-1556.6642.2649.4612.115464001.671.67FF24.66347.66177429.580086869295.20456207758170.49925005172971163121226DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:11FORECAST2023270-1555.38242.38648.88411.9378131047620.03937010.07937011.671.7493701FF23.382345.382177429.504118185315.12733989062180.45240987811001162121225DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:05FORECAST2023270-1557.16443.14250.1539.846163200.061.681.74FF25.164340.164177428.607085336744.22013531090190.51776109540388163121329DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:03FORECAST2023270-1556.73243.7950.26113.92063200.11.631.73FF24.732340.732177430.350088374255.99074521142550.501895317796831631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:03FORECAST2023270-1557.90245.03251.46713.622184800.161.631.79FF25.902343.902177430.223028023875.86057759295680.544786531415721631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:07FORECAST2023270-1558.71244.2451.47612.216048800.091.661.75FF26.712341.712177429.623084655395.24829656775680.57420718283898163121226DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023270-1558.65845.51852.08811.83809440.003937010.053937011.881.93393701FF26.658343.658177429.461460546445.08400531111060.57225674809816163121226DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:21FORECAST2023270-1559.86445.19452.52911.94223525454500.071.631.7FF27.864343.864177429.506009641095.1292618103750.61531058337978163121226DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023270-1559.75645.75252.7549.12235280.149606380.169606381.591.75960638FF27.756348.756177428.295557686473.90706317988870.611504089266881631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:05FORECAST2023270-1560.56646.20253.38412.987820.137795350.167795351.611.77779535FF28.566349.566177429.952634584985.58414742651550.639767611662041631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:04FORECAST2023270-1560.99845.24853.12313.4881840.035433090.155433091.561.71543309FF28.998349.998177430.165947435495.80215744954420.654545860577531631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:04FORECAST2023270-1560.81844.652.70911.4542560.059055150.209055151.541.74905515FF28.818349.818177429.297161391874.91727958665590.648415299106351631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:07FORECAST2023270-1560.09844.9652.52911.35802080.03937010.14937011.541.6893701FF28.098348.098177429.255943513634.87549793495150.623519520149341631223218DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:17FORECAST2023270-1558.06444.36651.21512.2427837263160.047244120.157244121.511.66724412FF26.064338.064177429.634511399585.25992240442640.550695673385561631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:06FORECAST2023270-1562.22246.29254.25710.77535520.153543390.163543391.541.70354339FF30.222349.222177429.006170481344.62269386992820.695096677399721631223218DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:07FORECAST2023270-1561.80847.62454.71612.37303680.125984320.135984321.551.68598432FF29.808353.808177429.690171618275.31657230603120.681615412383111631222212DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:06FORECAST2023270-1562.79848.14655.47212.4567752001.511.51FF30.798354.798177429.72594529335.35299949812610.71341845741962164121227DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:04FORECAST2023270-1561.91646.41854.16712.3825816001.541.54FF29.916347.916177429.694249612935.32072410888290.68515647416394163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:07FORECAST2023270-1563.91445.87854.89612.469272001.551.55FF31.914348.914177429.731283367895.35843625922340.74735464836557164121227DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:11FORECAST2023270-1558.42444.9651.69212.393011016667001.551.55FF26.424347.424177429.698705445075.32526079042810.56378504513831163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 00:00:08FORECAST2023270-1558.98243.91651.44911.16094560.129921330.149921331.351.49992133FF26.982357.982177429.171504056084.789959809840.583931224866131631223218DRYL
2023-06-20 20:00:06FORECAST2023270-1559.64843.53851.59311.4513240.141732360.141732361.421.56173236FF27.648355.648177429.295905754654.916006508670.607686859862211631223218DRYL
2023-06-20 16:00:07FORECAST2023270-1553.79842.0847.93912.55930800.051.391.44FF21.798342.798177429.769737716615.39761050506210.39533097922742162121225DRYL
2023-06-20 12:00:08FORECAST2023270-1556.42643.84450.13511.1507344344460.019685050.059685051.351.40968505FF24.426351.426177429.167127796234.78552867004970.49065376707171162121327.5DRYL
2023-06-20 08:00:06FORECAST2023270-1558.47843.6151.04410.7221077443550.019685050.049685051.391.43968505FF26.478358.478177428.983326293144.59960544504690.56574279924441163121329DRYL
2023-06-20 04:00:19FORECAST2023270-1557.81248.63253.22211.09990590206800.081.311.39FF25.812349.812177429.145342221534.76347291696980.54149930269359163121329DRYL
2023-06-20 00:00:07FORECAST2023270-1561.57449.69455.63410.299929755978001.031.03FF29.574352.574177428.802094370274.41663145122990.67388633227596163121329DRYL
2023-06-19 20:00:07FORECAST2023270-1564.07650.82857.4529.36145897512200.060.961.02FF32.076360.076177428.398532226054.01043528443660.752099098614561641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-19 16:00:11FORECAST2023270-1557.34444.4250.88210.34855796794200.111.051.16FF25.344354.344177428.822979319584.43769945947430.524364984100171631223218DRYL
2023-06-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023270-1562.7842.49452.63711.37434989603001.151.15FF30.78352.78177429.262938033264.88258685458810.712853877452051641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-19 08:00:08FORECAST2023270-1565.22845.2355.22911.067799355622001.131.13FF33.228351.228177429.131579612054.74954222030750.784425752381251641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-19 04:00:22FORECAST2023270-1563.01444.49253.75311.561182363564001.221.22FF31.014347.014177429.342946518724.96371210121290.720152050755641641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023270-1561.0747.73254.40113.8511725028280.102362260.172362260.941.11236226FF29.07342.07177430.320525417645.96044382906730.656986893334961631222212DRYL
2023-06-18 20:00:06FORECAST2023270-1562.47448.6555.56212.4376215737840.110236280.200236281.191.39023628FF30.474350.474177429.71776339115.34466692459150.703176501846411641222214DRYL
2023-06-18 16:00:08FORECAST2023270-1558.94648.5653.75312.2765546642230.133858340.213858341.461.67385834FF26.946352.946177429.648944288315.27460875098110.582637513593041631222212DRYL
2023-06-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023270-1559.32444.94252.13312.4180529328390.216535550.246535551.261.50653555FF27.324359.324177429.709403794935.3361541220640.596174255652041631222212DRYL
2023-06-18 08:00:07FORECAST2023270-1557.57842.85450.21611.7189356366160.224409570.264409571.151.41440957FF25.578357.578177429.410472673465.03223369094910.532939773439371631222212DRYL
2023-06-18 04:00:19FORECAST2023270-1563.37443.64653.5110.049141027690.03937010.03937011.031.0693701FF31.374376.374177428.694344119564.30800992183040.73120143098621641213210.5DRYL
2023-06-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023270-1551.60244.72648.16414.8047390306180.027559070.027559071.161.18755907FF19.602349.602177430.725921644046.37678486366270.32000246234226162121225DRYL
2023-06-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023270-1553.94244.52849.23516.6610741705620.027559070.067559071.231.29755907FF21.942351.942177431.51230728217.18945855713750.40044724650671162121225DRYL
2023-06-17 16:00:08FORECAST2023270-1547.42641.91844.67217.3025027568520.086614220.136614221.241.37661422FF15.426342.426177431.78317016267.47092949210070.19701111489832161122228DRYL
2023-06-17 12:00:06FORECAST2023270-1545.91441.05443.48416.913949839353001.351.35FF13.914336.914177431.619144481097.30038455945740.16067927477301161121224DRYL
2023-06-17 08:00:08FORECAST2023270-1545.82441.05443.43914.843387786237001.391.39FF13.824354.824177430.74233195666.39367546917980.15866384548969161121224DRYL
2023-06-17 04:00:26FORECAST2023270-1543.66442.49443.07914.5462649584470.11811030.56811030.941.5081103FF11.664356.664177430.616131789576.26385634839240.115245504972181611232212DRYL