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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 23, 2023

[ Thursday, June 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 24, 2023 ]

DAY 266 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/24/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.708
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 372

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 173
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -19

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-24 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023266-1961.3999443.9399452.6699420.7723619047620.120.231.832.06FF29.39994372.39994173430.71886041297 8.94704804770480.7079147219584616 41222214DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:01FORECAST2023266-1855.23841.1848.20919.0216680.125984320.235984321.832.06598432FF23.238366.238174430.610698944538.19093375257080.483534645532031621222210DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023266-1853.67240.92847.321.14594720.074803190.184803191.832.01480319FF21.672364.672174431.510905874999.12470683185670.424315280677431621222210DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:02FORECAST2023266-1853.7264147.36321.108260.287401730.397401731.832.22740173FF21.726364.726174431.494977435399.10810817240030.426336867325791621222210DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:18FORECAST2023266-1854.12241.948.01121.3958184545450.070866180.180866181.832.01086618FF22.122365.122174431.616475033799.23478774181390.441217657966691621222210DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:04FORECAST2023266-1955.90441.97248.93819.01145440.086614220.146614221.831.97661422FF23.904364.904173429.96943375088.17434428314720.508908027457041631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:02FORECAST2023266-1955.65241.4548.55122.87387120.11811030.16811031.831.9981103FF23.652365.652173431.608868049259.87256565653640.499305979121461631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:02FORECAST2023266-1955.99439.86647.9322.9232680.070866180.120866181.831.95086618FF23.994365.994173431.629730934879.8943639989880.512336368658571631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:02FORECAST2023266-1956.67841.28848.98320.98095040.047244120.097244121.831.92724412FF24.678366.678173430.807411991279.03874894294120.538343821777211631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:04FORECAST2023266-1956.69642.87249.78420.94365680.047244120.097244121.831.92724412FF24.696365.696173430.791583271879.02235107237470.539026507881721631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:14FORECAST2023266-1955.25642.85449.05521.2365437263160.019685050.069685051.831.89968505FF23.256363.256173430.91585447269.151163385870.48421999874069162121225DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:04FORECAST2023266-1955.95842.87249.41520.61742160.047244120.097244121.831.92724412FF23.958364.958173430.653053599078.87895556937950.51096512736931631222212DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:04FORECAST2023266-1956.71443.95250.33322.60880160.074803190.114803191.831.94480319FF24.714366.714173431.496870392259.75562713371920.539709078993121631222212DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:03FORECAST2023266-1955.79643.03449.41522.7579760.051181130.071181131.831.90118113FF23.796365.796173431.559909089749.82143005362650.50479317147927163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2023266-1954.62642.18848.40721.83872320.066929170.096929171.831.92692917FF22.626363.626173431.171067483289.41622559461580.460274785981681621222210DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023266-1955.9442.11649.02821.79936320.082677210.112677211.831.94267721FF23.94364.94173431.154398025049.39889131782520.510279457103541631222212DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:10FORECAST2023266-1955.52642.31448.9221.6941726166670.055118140.105118141.831.93511814FF23.526366.526173431.109840302219.35257129225980.494504758030791621222210DRYL
2023-06-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023266-1956.6644.07850.36920.77698720.082677210.082677211.661.74267721FF24.66374.66173430.720824487248.94908105714480.53766102267845163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 20:00:05FORECAST2023266-1956.51643.9750.24321.06569280.090551230.130551231.681.81055123FF24.516371.516173430.843374081199.07601416330990.532194802278531631222212DRYL
2023-06-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023266-1955.2243.46649.34321.36541920.055118140.095118141.681.77511814FF23.22369.22173430.970506735649.20786553924330.482849340968551621222210DRYL
2023-06-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023266-1957.09244.43850.76520.7453248344460.007874020.057874021.681.73787402FF25.092372.092173430.707378994648.93516448583670.55401298062798163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023266-1957.05644.13250.59420.5636821443550.062992160.112992161.671.78299216FF25.056374.056173430.630223130918.85534303021670.552653430931261631222212DRYL
2023-06-20 04:00:17FORECAST2023266-1955.07642.54848.81221.45680110206800.051.651.7FF23.076367.076173431.009248249219.24807971283520.47736889824948162121225DRYL
2023-06-20 00:00:06FORECAST2023266-1954.80642.7148.75820.76034175597800.011.411.42FF22.806365.806173430.713756097938.94176477559390.46710540642013162121225DRYL
2023-06-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023266-1954.80643.10648.95620.430474975122001.351.35FF22.806366.806173430.573618460448.79682353690360.46710540642013162121225DRYL
2023-06-19 16:00:06FORECAST2023266-1955.8543.6149.7320.60665956794200.021.421.44FF23.85367.85173430.648481747418.874226656820.50685069058934163121226DRYL
2023-06-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023266-1954.48242.11648.29920.930662696030.122047310.122047311.421.54204731FF22.482366.482173430.786067763549.01663787850760.45481861999471621222210DRYL
2023-06-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023266-1952.86242.0847.47121.1890265556220.169291430.169291431.351.51929143FF20.862362.862173430.895699336399.13026041594230.394258796064641621222210DRYL
2023-06-19 04:00:18FORECAST2023266-1953.49242.3547.92121.1826359635640.145669370.145669371.461.60566937FF21.492363.492173430.892988483249.12744931429270.417591313364421621222210DRYL
2023-06-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023266-1953.18641.39647.29123.845266902828001.331.33FF21.186356.186173432.0186598995310.3016002523060.40621667307755162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023266-1954.62642.15248.38922.881502373784001.581.58FF22.626359.626173431.612091269199.87593309093010.46027478598168162121225DRYL
2023-06-18 16:00:07FORECAST2023266-1955.56243.14249.35222.5871034642230.074803190.074803191.781.85480319FF23.562365.562173431.487699119769.74605730355750.49587648467714162121225DRYL
2023-06-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023266-1955.83243.0749.45123.270884132839001.651.65FF23.832364.832173431.7764736414410.0478202893960.50616486843279163121123DRYL
2023-06-18 08:00:05FORECAST2023266-1957.81244.70851.2622.7053940366160.003937010.003937011.541.54393701FF25.812364.812173431.537691525149.79823332772990.58104987327714163121226DRYL
2023-06-18 04:00:17FORECAST2023266-1957.32644.18650.75621.84926902769001.421.42FF25.326370.326173431.175533491739.42087022941840.56283387953058163121226DRYL
2023-06-18 00:00:06FORECAST2023266-1955.38243.2549.31623.605831830618001.551.55FF23.382365.382173431.9177459774410.1957776762030.48901866331588162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-17 20:00:05FORECAST2023266-1955.0442.9849.0125.627380570562001.621.62FF23.04365.04173432.7678363057611.0907060397060.47599941546057162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-17 16:00:07FORECAST2023266-1954.26641.88248.07425.5996891568520.015748040.075748041.551.62574804FF22.266365.266173432.756221129911.0784247416190.44665064557656162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-17 12:00:05FORECAST2023266-1952.84441.66647.25525.67509223935300.051.681.73FF20.844356.844173432.787847070211.1118678935980.39359726951463162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-17 08:00:08FORECAST2023266-1955.70643.1649.43323.82652058623700.051.731.78FF23.706369.706173432.0107611646210.2933132943650.50136371662747163121123DRYL
2023-06-17 04:00:23FORECAST2023266-1959.37845.08652.23222.975996158447001.331.33FF27.378376.378173431.651997941479.9176346464890.6383915394491163121226DRYL
2023-06-17 00:00:04FORECAST2023266-1961.26843.05252.1621.15973621384300.041.241.28FF29.268373.268173430.883274177069.11737642054360.70357112494461164121227DRYL
2023-06-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023266-1961.64642.33251.98924.722912725748001.191.19FF29.646375.646173432.3880341040210.6898916308110.71593521366098164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-16 16:00:05FORECAST2023266-1956.28237.77847.0328.225638335784001.381.38FF24.282352.282173433.8540501422112.2458075098290.52329968980022163121123DRYL
2023-06-16 12:00:09FORECAST2023266-1959.79244.0651.92623.1287412674140.011811030.021811031.161.18181103FF27.792367.792173431.716485096789.98505888468070.65310170648746163121226DRYL
2023-06-16 08:00:05FORECAST2023266-1959.1844.81651.99823.1221475749500.021.161.18FF27.18367.18173431.713701835489.98214792396790.63128169464927163121226DRYL
2023-06-16 04:00:12FORECAST2023266-1955.61641.41448.51525.4160975543730.074803190.164803191.381.54480319FF23.616360.616173432.6791928833510.997016576070.497934160996162122125DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:06FORECAST2023266-1956.5740.71248.64127.16359146774600.061.811.87FF24.57352.57173433.4109225229611.7729972370730.53424540229922163121123DRYL
2023-06-15 20:00:07FORECAST2023266-1955.54439.2947.41730.20178091111800.051.681.73FF23.544353.544173434.6753996679713.1279711882250.49519061424581162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023266-1960.02640.04650.03628.77916318687800.011.721.73FF28.026369.026173434.0845289983212.4925894969420.66131691890438163121123DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023266-1957.240.60448.90226.4993318558610.015748040.035748041.71.73574804FF25.2364.2173433.1331590999911.4777393207680.55808775845414163121123DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:06FORECAST2023266-1957.21839.97448.59626.06845756112200.041.571.61FF25.218356.218173432.9527361459211.2864100281910.55876630287289163121123DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:16FORECAST2023266-1953.61839.39846.50827.10820053549300.071.421.49FF21.618344.618173433.387778438411.748362807540.42229568299417162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:08FORECAST2023266-1955.61640.42448.0224.3194208751430.03937010.05937011.131.1893701FF23.616377.616173432.2183190182710.5112992101520.497934160996162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 20:00:05FORECAST2023266-1954.80639.247.00326.605062271850.03937010.08937011.091.1793701FF22.806373.806173433.1774021601111.5247117592280.46710540642013162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 16:00:07FORECAST2023266-1956.26439.63247.94828.1249664141930.066929170.326929171.441.76692917FF24.264375.264173433.8120971332612.2009506619440.52261491238039163122126DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:09FORECAST2023266-1957.95640.26249.10925.7605774877190.090551230.380551231.491.87055123FF25.956376.956173432.8236943978911.1497883180580.5864158320283163122126DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:02FORECAST2023266-1958.74840.71249.7324.8470916446490.090551230.350551231.421.77055123FF26.748382.748173432.4402307381610.7448820439840.61561552943539163122126DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:02FORECAST2023266-1958.74840.71249.7324.8470916446490.090551230.350551231.421.77055123FF26.748382.748173432.4402307381610.7448820439840.61561552943539163122126DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023266-1959.43240.24449.838117.522594765290.090551230.380551231.411.79055123FF27.432377.432173467.1440901803154.8999856072590.64032244745677163122126DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:17FORECAST2023266-1960.20639.34449.775117.0905099530200.011.451.46FF28.206390.206173467.0005073914254.6813275587830.66758477622625163121123DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:07FORECAST2023266-1947.4841.82844.654126.7454216001.111.11FF15.48384.48173470.1715761664159.5920946455480.21699966081739161121122DRYL
2023-06-13 20:00:05FORECAST2023266-1949.15444.88847.021132.58707963037001.251.25FF17.154374.154173472.0527953276762.5881015638470.26682804048719162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 16:00:07FORECAST2023266-1949.47841.75645.617131.15765668749000.910.91FF17.478378.478173471.5950470900161.8533012817530.27709840905838162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:07FORECAST2023266-1951.33245.66248.497128.57531264558000.940.94FF19.332390.332173470.7638705422860.5286118372190.33929748360678162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:08FORECAST2023266-1951.33245.66248.497129.56713162747000.990.99FF19.332386.332173471.0837513552661.0369704194090.33929748360678162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:12FORECAST2023266-1944.79843.6144.204129.94774857758001.191.19FF12.798380.798173471.2062938816861.2321970055090.14947482046904161121122DRYL