Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 22, 2023

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DAY 265 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/23/2023 04:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.70°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.62°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.66°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.477 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 371 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.10 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.56 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.94 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 23 in SWE DAY: 172 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.19 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 10.08 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -20 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-23 04:00:16	OBSERVATION	2023	265	-20	55.70006	41.61992	48.65999	23.383990454545	0.10000000000002	0.38000000000002	1.56	1.94	F	F	23.70006	370.70006	172	431.19190376754	10.082987361777	0.47700886041401	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	265	-19	54.212	38.048	46.13	21.2005592	0.04724412	0.32724412	1.56	1.88724412	F	F	22.212	369.212	173	430.90059130781	9.1353334953363	0.42037638033885	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-22 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	265	-19	55.472	37.166	46.319	23.1816664	0.04330711	0.32330711	1.56	1.88330711	F	F	23.472	370.472	173	431.73882361805	10.008425381042	0.46826994447655	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	265	-19	54.41	38.624	46.517	23.2010512	0.0393701	0.3193701	1.56	1.8793701	F	F	22.41	369.41	173	431.74700475961	10.016984362874	0.42784335615185	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-22 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	265	-19	53.492	38.03	45.761	23.444147726316	0.04330711	0.32330711	1.56	1.88330711	F	F	21.492	368.492	173	431.8495667807	10.124345039152	0.3934833616005	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.004	38.876	46.94	22.8601544	0.05118113	0.32118113	1.56	1.88118113	F	F	23.004	369.004	172	430.96994374961	9.8520394558755	0.45038926678865	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.3	38.732	47.516	24.9400944	0.04330711	0.31330711	1.56	1.87330711	F	F	24.3	370.3	172	431.84951772129	10.770367738563	0.50003959756524	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.904	37.508	46.706	24.998544	0.01968505	0.28968505	1.56	1.84968505	F	F	23.904	369.904	172	431.87416807547	10.796225393098	0.4848330362396	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.842	37.526	46.184	23.9385792	0.03149608	0.30149608	1.56	1.86149608	F	F	22.842	368.842	172	431.42657270712	10.327739179734	0.44422132738856	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.806	39.02	46.913	23.9307072	0.03149608	0.30149608	1.56	1.86149608	F	F	22.806	368.806	172	431.42324405764	10.324263332818	0.44285245293247	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.868	38.822	47.345	23.846180616667	0.04724412	0.31724412	1.56	1.87724412	F	F	23.868	370.868	172	431.38749807358	10.286944194834	0.4834513824828	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	57.992	39.956	48.974	23.1459672	0	0.1	1.56	1.66	F	F	25.992	377.992	172	431.09108506897	9.9780201152187	0.5647418906553	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-20 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.426	39.992	48.209	23.4538608	0.0393701	0.1593701	1.56	1.7193701	F	F	24.426	375.426	172	431.22148694116	10.113808728687	0.50487909036382	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.796	39.398	47.597	23.6298	0.03543309	0.15543309	1.56	1.71543309	F	F	23.796	373.796	172	431.29595652222	10.191437193429	0.48068868760039	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.3	40.118	48.209	23.132016834446	0.04724412	0.16724412	1.56	1.72724412	F	F	24.3	375.3	172	431.08517426908	9.9718695082725	0.50003959756524	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.894	40.604	48.749	22.958049344355	0.04724412	0.15724412	1.56	1.71724412	F	F	24.894	376.894	172	431.01144627529	9.8951820515701	0.52284242729739	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-20 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.896	39.29	47.093	23.657123502068	0.03149608	0.14149608	1.56	1.70149608	F	F	22.896	371.896	172	431.30751872405	10.203495237825	0.44627588213554	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.994	38.786	47.39	22.927896955978	0	0.21	1.21	1.42	F	F	23.994	370.994	172	430.99866428107	9.8818929628005	0.48828793112743	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.994	38.948	47.471	22.606295775122	0	0.18	1.17	1.35	F	F	23.994	371.994	172	430.86227238834	9.740199967952	0.48828793112743	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-19 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.696	39.668	48.182	22.874582767942	0.01574804	0.26574804	1.17	1.43574804	F	F	24.696	371.696	172	430.97606129933	9.8583975851931	0.51524610135224	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.174	37.112	46.643	22.99716109603	0	0.25	1.17	1.42	F	F	24.174	372.174	172	431.02802480312	9.9124209233008	0.49520009893962	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-19 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.886	37.382	46.634	23.162340155622	0	0.2	1.15	1.35	F	F	23.886	369.886	172	431.09802205832	9.9852390273309	0.48414218556066	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-19 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.66	37.526	47.093	23.221483963564	0	0.28	1.18	1.46	F	F	24.66	369.66	172	431.12307804879	10.011317643232	0.51386427546131	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.122	37.346	45.734	25.819761302828	0	0.18	1.15	1.33	F	F	22.122	363.122	172	432.22011908798	11.159820305132	0.41699157967516	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-18 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.148	37.544	46.346	24.986179973784	0	0.24	1.34	1.58	F	F	23.148	365.148	172	431.86895401434	10.790755410092	0.45588200388984	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-18 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.948	38.75	47.849	24.793526664223	0	0.41	1.37	1.78	F	F	24.948	369.948	172	431.78768859931	10.70553957057	0.52491282927384	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.526	39.02	47.273	25.515092932839	0	0.31	1.34	1.65	F	F	23.526	368.526	172	432.0918568211	11.024863882313	0.47033791989832	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-18 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	58.892	40.658	49.775	25.214790836616	0	0.31	1.23	1.54	F	F	26.892	366.892	172	431.96533554035	10.891915584319	0.59857245320784	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	57.524	40.856	49.19	24.27551782769	0	0.16	1.26	1.42	F	F	25.524	372.524	172	431.56898373251	10.476560558476	0.54694413255978	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.948	37.94	47.444	25.902389430618	0	0.39	1.16	1.55	F	F	24.948	369.948	172	432.254887578	11.196434431333	0.52491282927384	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.102	38.048	47.075	27.853877370562	0	0.43	1.19	1.62	F	F	24.102	370.102	172	433.07392228944	12.062787923838	0.49243494260574	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.436	37.31	46.373	27.753566756852	0	0.43	1.18	1.61	F	F	23.436	371.436	172	433.03192107422	12.018180329381	0.4668917662293	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-17 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	53.33	36.086	44.708	27.725945039353	0	0.51	1.22	1.73	F	F	21.33	364.33	172	433.02035366211	12.005898526557	0.38749696392599	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-17 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.318	37.4	46.859	26.174344586237	0	0.56	1.22	1.78	F	F	24.318	374.318	172	432.36927009517	11.316982263971	0.50073097064721	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-06-17 04:00:23	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	57.488	39.452	48.47	25.716534558447	0	0.23	1.1	1.33	F	F	25.488	377.488	172	432.17667280194	11.114086341465	0.54557069161567	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.878	38.948	46.913	23.752674613843	0.02362206	0.30362206	0.98	1.28362206	F	F	22.878	371.878	172	431.3479457839	10.245667401555	0.44559086749991	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.59	38.678	46.634	27.283379125748	0	0.23	0.96	1.19	F	F	22.59	373.59	172	432.83490536607	11.80919882196	0.43465408533143	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	49.568	33.89	41.729	30.170514335784	0	0.32	1.06	1.38	F	F	17.568	355.568	172	434.04095351715	13.095238810406	0.25847005352318	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 12:00:09	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.382	37.562	46.472	25.823720467414	0	0.18	0.99	1.17	F	F	23.382	368.382	172	432.22178520256	11.161574560997	0.4648252480234	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.49	39.092	47.291	25.80954997495	0	0.19	0.99	1.18	F	F	23.49	368.49	172	432.21582183083	11.155295853507	0.46895917726737	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.716	37.13	45.923	27.612582354373	0.02755907	0.45755907	1.01	1.46755907	F	F	22.716	364.716	172	432.97287117986	11.955499062663	0.43943328469142	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	53.258	35.276	44.267	29.357124267746	0	0.81	1.06	1.87	F	F	21.258	356.258	172	433.70206901291	12.732245535191	0.3848448089485	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-15 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	51.566	35.276	43.421	32.278316111118	0	0.7	1.03	1.73	F	F	19.566	357.566	172	434.91588059603	14.038352275624	0.32430728595525	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	53.582	36.392	44.987	31.186027186878	0.00787402	0.72787402	1	1.72787402	F	F	21.582	368.582	172	434.46306733973	13.549177029751	0.3968201480169	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-15 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.59	35.312	44.951	28.706148655861	0.02362206	0.70362206	1.02	1.72362206	F	F	22.59	366.59	172	433.430346756	12.442115965939	0.43465408533143	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-15 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.32	36.158	45.239	28.256479961122	0.04330711	0.65330711	0.96	1.61330711	F	F	22.32	359.32	172	433.24238902776	12.241904883871	0.42444590421282	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-15 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	51.656	36.662	44.159	29.100013335493	0	0.49	1	1.49	F	F	19.656	350.656	172	433.59480259983	12.617614537856	0.32742948549409	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-15 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.094	37.832	46.463	26.552116875143	0	0.26	0.89	1.15	F	F	23.094	382.094	172	432.52802753952	11.484534739004	0.45382118184889	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.302	35.762	45.032	28.69271667185	0.00787402	0.26787402	0.87	1.13787402	F	F	22.302	379.302	172	433.42473540974	12.436133131683	0.42376707841368	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.176	34.862	44.519	30.265756814193	0	0.88	0.82	1.7	F	F	22.176	379.176	172	434.08058883066	13.137777539311	0.41902173872829	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	53.564	34.466	44.015	28.013150287719	0	0.76	1.02	1.78	F	F	21.564	378.564	172	433.14058972203	12.133632435594	0.39615217766483	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 09:17:02	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.59	34.952	44.771	27.159294844649	0	0.69	0.99	1.68	F	F	22.59	383.59	172	432.78287292851	11.75407764958	0.43465408533143	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 09:17:02	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.59	34.952	44.771	27.159294844649	0	0.69	0.99	1.68	F	F	22.59	383.59	172	432.78287292851	11.75407764958	0.43465408533143	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	54.068	34.502	44.285	119.77487236529	0	0.75	0.95	1.7	F	F	22.068	378.068	172	467.39500313208	55.982176844317	0.41496363130968	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.382	37.238	46.31	119.36512435302	0	0.55	0.91	1.46	F	F	23.382	390.382	172	467.25910805311	55.774441537842	0.4648252480234	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	56.66	39.02	47.84	127.3392656	0	0.39	0.72	1.11	F	F	24.66	396.66	172	469.87853343605	59.833987368952	0.51386427546131	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	57.434	39.722	48.578	133.26259563037	0	0.48	0.77	1.25	F	F	25.434	385.434	172	471.79023240233	62.871990962988	0.543509513337	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-13 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	55.112	36.518	45.815	131.68606468749	0	0.2	0.71	0.91	F	F	23.112	389.112	172	471.28422744316	62.061565261275	0.45450798718035	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	61.124	39.128	50.126	129.23252624558	0	0.22	0.72	0.94	F	F	29.124	399.124	172	470.4926956669	60.802959641128	0.67887371921776	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-13 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	61.124	39.38	50.252	130.22434522747	0	0.22	0.77	0.99	F	F	29.124	395.124	172	470.81325876932	61.311348347647	0.67887371921776	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	59.882	35.114	47.498	130.14789417758	0	0.4	0.79	1.19	F	F	27.882	395.882	172	470.78857794949	61.272142022982	0.63494169969275	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-13 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	47.93	39.326	43.628	30.503592463283	0	0.11	1.15	1.26	F	F	15.93	364.93	172	434.17952266837	13.244035215379	0.21017568799043	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-12 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	47.066	42.62	44.843	34.042128046108	0	0.04	1.2	1.24	F	F	15.066	388.066	172	435.64442966851	14.830263457349	0.18699312435806	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-06-12 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	46.724	37.904	42.314	35.650933284579	0	1.41	1.75	3.16	T	F	14.724	385.724	172	436.30611234246	15.554720102775	0.1782705351699	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-12 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	43.196	35.546	39.371	35.597817511629	0	1.13	1.74	2.87	F	F	11.196	373.196	172	436.28430958375	15.530769235749	0.1034740144989	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-12 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	43.196	35.546	39.371	36.694230455258	0	1.17	1.76	2.93	F	F	11.196	363.196	172	436.73376518987	16.025609427469	0.1034740144989	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-12 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	265	-20	37.742	35.996	36.869	32.690213516834	0	0.17	1.73	1.9	F	F	5.742	370.742	172	435.08630857728	14.223064325643	0.036837017579138	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L