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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 18, 2023

[ Saturday, June 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, June 19, 2023 ]

DAY 261 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/19/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.041
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 412

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 26 in
SWE DAY: 168
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-19 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023261-2436.1599828.5000832.3300325.8541078260870.250.450.651.1FF4.15998412.15998168429.69722289482 11.1094383332930.04050049527927216 1132125DRYL
2023-06-19 00:00:02FORECAST2023261-2334.93426.90630.9228.297935846340.145669370.345669370.650.99566937FF2.934410.934169431.3720880077812.2069396723460.031206391655477161132125DRYL
2023-06-18 12:00:02FORECAST2023261-2334.93426.5130.72227.9049664623480.326771830.526771830.651.17677183FF2.934410.934169431.2057864829812.0327830101780.031206391655477161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-18 08:00:02FORECAST2023261-2332.61225.23228.92227.5651138376550.19685050.39685050.651.0468505FF0.612408.612169431.0618296346911.8822684049480.018404260393626161132125DRYL
2023-06-18 04:00:11FORECAST2023261-2334.91626.11430.51527.2641718217350.216535550.416535550.651.06653555FF2.916410.916169430.934250997911.7490654630770.031084297091919161132125DRYL
2023-06-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023261-2435.36625.71830.54227.7617624072610.248031630.318031630.650.96803163FF3.366413.366168430.5102684290411.9517237860130.034257330181698161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 20:00:02FORECAST2023261-2435.625.80830.70429.790858864710.271653690.341653690.650.99165369FF3.6414.6168431.3707598535712.8509054251610.036009430002833161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 16:00:02FORECAST2023261-2435.58226.11430.84829.7987059374480.303149770.373149770.651.02314977FF3.582414.582168431.3740790088312.8543893294220.035872104793607161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 12:00:03FORECAST2023261-2434.98826.97830.98328.9267702831790.326771830.396771830.651.04677183FF2.988413.988168431.0048625896912.4675786510650.031575050665194161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023261-2436.5927.82432.20728.5475789193440.334645850.404645850.651.05464585FF4.59415.59168430.8440407599412.2995542555240.044248468361631161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 04:00:20FORECAST2023261-2436.42827.28431.85628.8571829842990.224409570.294409570.650.94440957FF4.428414.428168430.9753609767412.436734853430.042805045374771161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2023261-2435.67227.89631.78426.4625184075220.188976480.188976480.650.83897648FF3.672413.672168429.9569564793311.3777438752760.036563029959074161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 20:00:03FORECAST2023261-2436.42828.432.41430.3598817119310.216535550.216535550.650.86653555FF4.428413.428168431.6112737158213.1036672155480.042805045374771161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 16:00:03FORECAST2023261-2434.7926.61830.70430.8823025248480.283464720.283464720.650.93346472FF2.79410.79168431.8317840170913.3359597938610.030240627334921161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023261-2434.98826.97830.98328.5541594099780.204724520.204724520.650.85472452FF2.988411.988168430.8468329844512.3024691503220.031575050665194161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023261-2435.13226.83430.98328.6781429516930.188976480.188976480.650.83897648FF3.132411.132168430.8994327836912.3573955311740.032575719590815161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023261-2435.20426.85231.02829.2971153473390.263779670.273779670.650.92377967FF3.204411.204168431.1617830999512.6317964928440.033085750974101161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023261-2435.04226.09630.56929.7883854719870.259842660.279842660.650.92984266FF3.042408.042168431.3697136440712.849807310970.031947291639249161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 20:00:05FORECAST2023261-2434.30427.06830.68631.8774633055210.287401730.287401730.650.93740173FF2.304408.304168432.2510259548713.779066218650.02716186300937161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023261-2435.63627.19431.41531.4289429007590.192913490.192913490.650.84291349FF3.636412.636168432.0622041784413.57925834470.03628536832142161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023261-2434.75427.03230.89330.0967362488060.263779670.263779670.650.91377967FF2.754413.754168431.5000909285812.9867444280130.030003085019901161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023261-2434.39427.71631.05530.1710006384290.204724520.204724520.650.85472452FF2.394406.394168431.5314762410613.0197364451710.027711462700804161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:13FORECAST2023261-2432.84626.94229.89430.5910925390490.267716680.267716680.650.91771668FF0.846405.846168431.7089023405913.2064469814320.019449970960438161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023261-2437.54426.3331.93729.7610109372080.086614220.086614220.650.73661422FF5.544420.544168431.3581341711512.8376541489210.053558748662518161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023261-2437.0427.19432.11731.3373589238920.082677210.082677210.650.73267721FF5.04421.04168432.0236219555213.538479304820.048463904047747161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 16:00:05FORECAST2023261-2437.68826.8732.27931.1987761412160.047244120.077244120.650.72724412FF5.688419.688168431.965223148413.4767862977970.055089572595289161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:06FORECAST2023261-2436.89628.52632.71130.5134644143530.208661530.208661530.650.85866153FF4.896421.896168431.6761303075113.1719342406640.047081475211548161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:00FORECAST2023261-2437.0430.03833.53930.0530464683930.177165450.177165450.650.82716545FF5.04424.04168431.4816241662112.9673373013250.048463904047747161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:00FORECAST2023261-2437.0430.03833.53930.0530464683930.177165450.177165450.650.82716545FF5.04424.04168431.4816241662112.9673373013250.048463904047747161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2023261-2436.08627.44631.766122.389702773050.145669370.155669370.650.80566937FF4.086421.086168466.2733051177457.0670512243650.039882381086379161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:15FORECAST2023261-2435.85226.79831.325122.059316690030.110236280.120236280.650.77023628FF3.852424.852168466.1628001819456.8995128565190.037977445170047161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023261-2436.60826.90631.757132.026254400.010.650.66FF4.608423.608168469.456000750861.9805173847320.04441123460823161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 20:00:04FORECAST2023261-2435.92426.09631.01136.498427591590.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF3.924416.924168470.9067816859964.2780352423520.038555531861184161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023261-2437.0426.52831.784136.401630400.010.650.66FF5.04418.04168470.8755546766564.22819337340.048463904047747161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023261-2436.98628.50832.747134.688423484080.035433090.065433090.650.71543309FF4.986418.986168470.321597604263.3468745118250.047941749174939161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023261-2435.45626.6931.073134.751324479590.062992160.092992160.660.75299216FF3.456420.456168470.3419789896363.3792046272060.034922763139858161132125DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023261-2436.21228.41832.315134.389857340920.062992160.072992160.650.72299216FF4.212418.212168470.2248108067763.1934452424830.040939755415012161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:06FORECAST2023261-2434.77226.90630.83933.6010325019250.342519870.492519870.651.14251987FF2.772401.772168432.9746298502714.5483946101080.030121662588317161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023261-2438.71428.34633.5338.4524273034780.35433090.54433090.651.1943309FF6.714414.714168434.9944595050316.7265928315330.067014532083462161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-12 16:00:05FORECAST2023261-2437.7630.07433.91736.5353945347290.496063260.796063260.651.44606326FF5.76423.76168434.1992951852115.8636425562930.055867797827542161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:04FORECAST2023261-2435.54629.37232.45934.4569028405950.3937010.7337010.651.383701FF3.546419.546168433.3327734434514.9313052721860.03559873768837161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023261-2434.5228.86831.69435.8178134002440.413386050.763386050.651.41338605FF2.52410.52168433.9006530217215.5413726241760.028496402110848161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:18FORECAST2023261-2437.77830.86634.32233.0134019543280.318897810.818897810.651.46889781FF5.778422.778168432.7282814771314.285832693410.056063698511253161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023261-2439.18227.8633.52133.0953754928270.401575020.891575020.651.54157502FF7.182406.182168432.7626687610414.3224430219250.073074985792806161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:06FORECAST2023261-2438.326.74432.52237.3155948362640.405512030.915512030.651.56551203FF6.3414.3168434.5233810789416.2144984352250.061983093453925161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:08FORECAST2023261-2443.7930.4737.1335.9397872947630.204724520.754724520.651.40472452FF11.79415.79168433.9514543950215.596122967210.15640834195223161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023261-2450.66633.60242.13432.18922560.062992160.432992160.651.08299216FF18.666429.666168432.3821475167213.9180464918280.3640123316463162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:06FORECAST2023261-2449.22632.34240.78433.2530280.059055150.419055150.651.06905515FF17.226424.226168432.8287826812314.3928676297050.31338679711504162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:11FORECAST2023261-2443.1630.32636.74334.0631568247620.303149770.813149770.651.46314977FF11.16415.16168433.1681049814114.7550730914670.14231377299936161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023261-2447.64233.22440.43332.3087092682710.342519870.602519870.571.17251987FF15.642429.642168432.4323726626213.9713318065450.26152430177119162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:07FORECAST2023261-2448.25433.99841.12633.6292299347190.338582860.578582860.581.15858286FF16.254430.254168432.9864416262614.5610006040660.28103241374537162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:07FORECAST2023261-2445.30234.46639.88433.87792720.318897810.538897810.581.11889781FF13.302424.302168433.0905831496414.6722112469490.19384843837175161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023261-2443.44833.74638.59733.098151798120.055118140.145118140.610.75511814FF11.448420.448168432.7638332749214.323683046470.14864705174342161132125DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:08FORECAST2023261-2446.56235.65441.10831.4713985199130.043307110.123307110.610.73330711FF14.562436.562168432.0800867098313.5981646013630.22887419781798161132125DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:15FORECAST2023261-2448.27234.8841.57632.1485855500200.080.530.61FF16.272430.272168432.3650609342113.8999251502830.28161664461834162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:06FORECAST2023261-2444.07836.17640.12730.88294640.059055150.059055150.570.62905515FF12.078440.078168431.8320556119513.3362462272660.16314699752802161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:08FORECAST2023261-2443.84436.3240.08233.71672880.059055150.059055150.590.64905515FF11.844434.844168433.0230891167514.6001220598880.15765771114735161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:06FORECAST2023261-2450.61238.6644.63632.59073760.251968640.251968640.590.84196864FF18.612450.612168432.5508632766514.0971516837030.36206343603916162132126DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023261-2458.44235.63647.03932.78586480.015748040.015748040.590.60574804FF26.442442.442168432.6327938213714.1842402862740.65550546598662163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023261-2456.6635.29445.97731.0065960.007874020.237874020.560.79787402FF24.66458.66168431.8842043789813.391259043960.59049315377623163132127DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:10FORECAST2023261-2458.02837.00447.51630.19070045714300.470.771.24FF26.028460.028168431.5398007043813.0284888584010.64072734332218163132127DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023261-2439.68632.1835.93327.632755200.230.420.65FF7.686457.686168430.4554094577211.8946689540610.080059745607825161132125DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:05FORECAST2023261-2439.61433.92636.7736.052036800.240.460.7FF7.614434.614168433.9981917155215.6465187788610.079032209872429161132125DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:08FORECAST2023261-2443.55641.59442.57533.484387200.010.70.71FF11.556454.556168432.925758676114.4962537323640.15106974794475161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:05FORECAST2023261-2442.15239.21840.68531.606423200.050.310.36FF10.152453.152168432.1369470018813.6583032272970.12159527816267161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:07FORECAST2023261-2442.15239.21840.68531.166280.027559070.027559070.230.25755907FF10.152455.152168431.9515262936813.4623222148960.12159527816267161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:11FORECAST2023261-244140.47840.73933.758726900.0100.01FF9447168433.0406764518214.6189019329280.10062033785499161131122.5DRYL