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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 17, 2023

[ Friday, June 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 18, 2023 ]

DAY 260 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/18/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.210
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 412

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 167
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-18 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023260-2543.7799232.7238.2499626.6834861904760.130.20.650.85FF11.77992411.77992167429.41215055236 11.4582131892870.2103379132675416 1132125DRYL
2023-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2023260-2446.3130.77638.54327.063822400.070.650.72FF14.31414.31168430.2132621494711.6432153209380.28928659178476162131123DRYL
2023-06-17 12:00:01FORECAST2023260-2446.83231.11838.97527.971818400.070.650.72FF14.832414.832168430.5995540973312.0446525303320.30715086796968162131123DRYL
2023-06-17 08:00:03FORECAST2023260-2446.86832.84639.85727.904119200.070.650.72FF14.868414.868168430.5707833136312.0146984616210.30840059999594162131123DRYL
2023-06-17 04:00:19FORECAST2023260-2445.82432.4539.13728.324405100.070.650.72FF13.824413.824168430.7493163228312.2007181320760.27310623589279162131123DRYL
2023-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2023260-2546.0432.32439.18226.003228000.650.65FF14.04414.04167429.1207761898711.1585253828020.28024198406945162131123DRYL
2023-06-16 20:00:01FORECAST2023260-2546.41833.13439.77629.8726312000.650.65FF14.418413.418167430.7714613675812.8682769969190.29294241521958162131123DRYL
2023-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2023260-2545.2331.47838.35430.0444376000.650.65FF13.23412.23167430.8443783878612.9444770417850.25395865124919162131123DRYL
2023-06-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023260-2546.27431.92839.10127.960424000.650.65FF14.274413.274167429.9577424853512.0218007819730.28807276151699162131123DRYL
2023-06-16 08:00:03FORECAST2023260-2546.52631.74839.13728.129672000.650.65FF14.526411.526167430.029923652912.0966007025410.29661951201842162131123DRYL
2023-06-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023260-2546.5831.1938.88528.47036430.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF14.58411.58167430.175128604412.2472426241670.29846594584563162131123DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023260-2545.87830.93838.40828.90065600.020.650.67FF13.878408.878167430.3583418404612.4376383942620.27488171112942162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 20:00:05FORECAST2023260-2546.14831.76638.95730.9071896000.650.65FF14.148410.148167431.2100615962513.3274911311830.28384337444035162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2023260-2546.50831.11838.81330.8091832000.650.65FF14.508412.508167431.1685612618213.2839511939960.29600519769413162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023260-2547.94832.01839.98329.2376368000.650.65FF15.948414.948167430.501684623812.5868518968190.34687027209385162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023260-2545.6832.37839.02929.5048912000.650.65FF13.68407.68167430.6152804218412.7052569979040.26839956405049162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:13FORECAST2023260-2546.5832.43239.50629.572147683333000.650.65FF14.58408.58167430.6438554751712.7350636930320.29846594584563162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023260-2548.14632.07240.10929.6999792000.650.65FF16.146419.146167430.6981534004712.7917261974720.35411286522508162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023260-2548.09233.00840.5531.207428000.650.65FF16.092420.092167431.3371318076913.4609224846150.3521322425091162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 16:00:04FORECAST2023260-2547.4832.25239.86631.2723720.007874020.027874020.650.67787402FF15.48418.48167431.3646053792813.4897944070540.32997614556846162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:06FORECAST2023260-2548.45233.47640.96429.9874648000.650.65FF16.452421.452167430.8202018672412.9192056386230.36540962280269162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:00FORECAST2023260-2548.68634.46641.57629.8658424000.650.65FF16.686422.686167430.7685794530912.8652665048180.37412838363212162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 09:16:59FORECAST2023260-2548.68634.46641.57629.8658424000.650.65FF16.686422.686167430.7685794530912.8652665048180.37412838363212162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2023260-2547.89431.98239.938122.032236800.010.650.66FF15.894420.894167465.652150393656.8245734832620.34490455275576162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:15FORECAST2023260-2546.90431.15439.029121.7935244666700.010.650.66FF14.904424.904167465.571940329656.7036475055270.30965255426989162131123DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023260-2546.65231.7339.191132.18851600.010.650.66FF14.652422.652167469.0201130915861.9990727237280.3009359508897162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023260-2546.32831.2838.804136.5955768000.650.65FF14.328417.328167470.4547415464364.2620367798290.28989440603017162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023260-2545.57231.92838.75136.564482400.010.650.66FF13.572416.572167470.4446755509664.2460336144530.26489649493588162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:05FORECAST2023260-2545.69832.19838.948134.73040480.007874020.027874020.650.67787402FF13.698417.698167469.8495324661163.303017704250.26898566281119162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023260-2545.39230.61438.003134.576731040270.011811030.031811030.660.69181103FF13.392421.392167469.7995405982263.2240864179310.25911006855865162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023260-2546.61632.34239.479134.2918677166700.010.650.66FF14.616417.616167469.7068196065463.0778060842180.29969979685801162131123DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:05FORECAST2023260-2544.07829.6636.86932.0353494500420.149606380.149606380.650.79960638FF12.078403.078167431.687032239613.8292449308470.21892824720367161132125DRYL
2023-06-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023260-2545.71630.88438.337.1350226880710.192913490.192913490.650.84291349FF13.716411.716167433.8261330938316.1101432951180.26957240251566162132126DRYL
2023-06-12 16:00:05FORECAST2023260-2548.99233.76441.37835.7323846537250.267716680.297716680.650.94771668FF16.992421.992167433.2405445095615.4807177840050.38562702683366162132126DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:04FORECAST2023260-2547.96634.89841.43232.925288337770.31496080.34496080.650.9949608FF15.966419.966167432.0623231520914.2257765696690.34752643151598162132126DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023260-2547.08432.93640.0134.0537344801750.311023790.351023790.651.00102379FF15.084412.084167432.5369753626614.7294993118580.31594524190305162132126DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:17FORECAST2023260-2546.90436.10441.50432.34909470.488189240.498189240.651.14818924FF14.904420.904167431.8194367391213.9689678523740.30965255426989162133129DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023260-2542.4432.73837.58932.71751520.381889970.491889970.651.14188997FF10.44403.44167431.9747802532414.1331414389520.17423347630272161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:06FORECAST2023260-2543.26832.14437.70636.4308560.338582860.508582860.651.15858286FF11.268412.268167433.5324107059315.7939568257610.19605482784579161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:08FORECAST2023260-2543.17833.29638.23736.65343680.248031630.548031630.651.19803163FF11.178408.178167433.6253105193415.8938579140010.19360583035059161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023260-2546.68837.00441.84633.68933360.23622060.36622060.651.0162206FF14.688414.688167432.3838480913714.5667237016020.30217439663765162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023260-2546.72435.49241.10834.53645920.23622060.35622060.651.0062206FF14.724410.724167432.7396061544914.9452937521790.30341512271973162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:11FORECAST2023260-254133.58437.29234.0199920410960.177165450.507165450.651.15716545FF9408167432.5228021857714.7144222879530.14011284523455161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023260-2544.636.60840.60432.532740.027559070.257559070.570.82755907FF12.6417.6167431.8968884574414.0507891789950.23444680399825161132125DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:07FORECAST2023260-2544.67237.70641.18934.4827920.027559070.237559070.580.81755907FF12.672417.672167432.7170908323914.9212934380180.23663397516861161132125DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:07FORECAST2023260-2545.98637.61641.80134.87324320.011811030.221811030.580.80181103FF13.986414.986167432.8808291229315.0959584306210.2784496179956162132126DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023260-2547.339.30843.30433.955412598120.07874020.08874020.610.6987402FF15.3413.3167432.4956728438114.6855690183130.32356727577591162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:08FORECAST2023260-2551.06241.48646.27432.6397017199130.066929170.076929170.610.68692917FF19.062426.062167431.9419825164614.0984574696450.46556789633757162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:14FORECAST2023260-2548.68640.35244.51933.401414350020.082677210.082677210.530.61267721FF16.686417.686167432.2627593925414.4381875345530.37412838363212162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:06FORECAST2023260-2554.37442.31448.34431.9847312000.570.57FF22.374432.374167431.6656608054713.8067101291330.5950263526816163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:07FORECAST2023260-2554.53642.00848.27234.805328000.590.59FF22.536426.536167432.8523601000915.0655683688580.6012115243119163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:06FORECAST2023260-2553.22240.4646.84134.1049168000.590.59FF21.222436.222167432.558471669914.7523706874370.55044516109411163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023260-2550.8139.45245.13134.4485296000.590.59FF18.81419.81167432.7027149170714.9059722828210.45569339375188162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023260-2550.43239.93845.18532.5677120.173228440.233228440.560.79322844FF18.432438.432167431.9116336730114.0663736949120.44093469195873162132126DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:10FORECAST2023260-2550.50439.3844.94232.1763140571430.397638010.467638010.771.23763801FF18.504437.504167431.746534156713.8920120761090.44374019666383162132126DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023260-2549.08239.81244.44727.85691040.232283590.232283590.420.65228359FF17.082454.082167429.9135805384911.9760640928040.38902870646134162132126DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023260-2548.27239.3843.82636.30256320.240157610.240157610.460.70015761FF16.272431.272167433.4788405453415.736393004760.35874960615415162132126DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:08FORECAST2023260-2552.57441.88247.22833.95316480.007874020.007874020.70.70787402FF20.574446.574167432.4947284804614.6845647912280.5250472731443163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:05FORECAST2023260-2553.25839.07446.16631.96715760.007874020.047874020.310.35787402FF21.258447.258167431.6582404469813.7988870017070.55185108222504163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:07FORECAST2023260-2552.86239.07445.96831.5270144000.230.23FF20.862448.862167431.4722842629513.6030329191590.53635399898597163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:11FORECAST2023260-2557.14633.06245.10433.90209570.007874020.0078740200.00787402FF25.146442.146167432.4732714590214.6617502366960.69641237450812163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:06FORECAST2023260-2536.78834.6135.69932.932324000.080.08FF4.788411.788167432.0652867414314.2289140121220.067288157146018161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:09FORECAST2023260-2538.5733.92636.24837.48114000.220.22FF6.57429.57167433.9703132740616.2657020676690.093417239771494161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:05FORECAST2023260-2540.04634.91637.48138.003152000.130.13FF8.046431.046167434.1875253299816.5004945216190.12018080962748161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:07FORECAST2023260-2539.32635.99637.66134.062724000.060.06FF7.326437.326167432.5407511163914.733516224030.10651950603448161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023260-2539.32635.99637.66134.1080864000.050.05FF7.326435.326167432.5598027934714.7537871268470.10651950603448161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:16FORECAST2023260-2535.83433.83634.83535.43162503766600.010.040.05FF3.834418.834167433.1147082475515.3459579409250.055833934956836161131122.5DRYL