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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 16, 2023

[ Thursday, June 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 17, 2023 ]

DAY 259 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/17/2023 04:00:17 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.686
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 418

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 29 in
SWE DAY: 166
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.89 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 12.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -26

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-17 04:00:17OBSERVATION2023259-2656.6900642.9200649.8050629.30505950.070000000000050.070000000000050.650.72000000000005FF24.69006417.69006166429.89313513112 12.5980439036590.6858826442950216 3131123.5DRYL
2023-06-17 00:00:01FORECAST2023259-2556.6640.60448.63227.0266864000.650.65FF24.66417.66167429.5589622187911.6095553621970.68482573454269163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2023259-2556.341.21648.75829.0314096000.650.65FF24.3417.3167430.4139755559612.4955244219290.67205258023216163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023259-2553.6364147.31829.1809776000.650.65FF21.636414.636167430.4775918674412.5617569655860.57212962028161163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-16 04:00:09FORECAST2023259-2553.99640.22647.11129.5171435000.650.65FF21.996414.996167430.6204863821612.7106866905820.58606939980552163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:03FORECAST2023259-2654.5940.17247.38129.86832160.015748040.015748040.650.66574804FF22.59412.59166430.1333282944712.8473605803780.6088269150942163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 20:00:01FORECAST2023259-2655.47241.21648.34431.9829968000.650.65FF23.472414.472166431.0320334683813.7856961471170.64192103236395163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 16:00:01FORECAST2023259-2656.7541.19848.97431.9051624000.650.65FF24.75415.75166430.9990405142813.7510943818520.68798558768485163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023259-2657.68641.21649.45130.4404784000.650.65FF25.686416.686166430.3769628759213.1008806422820.71999852272163164131124DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023259-2655.05841.86448.46130.6375736000.650.65FF23.058412.058166430.4608075726613.1882746739230.62650243537651163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:13FORECAST2023259-2655.3140.0147.6630.725100483333000.650.65FF23.31412.31166430.4980282289713.2270951752120.6359135815781163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:04FORECAST2023259-2656.87640.98248.92930.9098072000.650.65FF24.876420.876166430.5765472908913.3090380616030.69238622083495163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2023259-2657.36240.40648.88432.4596664000.650.65FF25.362422.362166431.2339450650313.9977099971670.70909817425382164131124DRYL
2023-06-14 16:00:03FORECAST2023259-2656.42640.89248.65932.45799360.019685050.019685050.650.66968505FF24.426421.426166431.2332369141313.9969656438660.67654709505741163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:05FORECAST2023259-2657.48842.0849.78431.3735272000.650.65FF25.488423.488166430.7735129981913.5148845270880.71336069368151164131124DRYL
2023-06-14 09:16:59FORECAST2023259-2657.70443.1650.43231.2923472000.650.65FF25.704423.704166430.739048431413.4788358561130.72059825107657164131124DRYL
2023-06-14 09:16:58FORECAST2023259-2657.70443.1650.43231.2923472000.650.65FF25.704423.704166430.739048431413.4788358561130.72059825107657164131124DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2023259-2657.39843.19650.297123.31005920.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF25.398423.398166465.5788209746257.4105519766470.71031905321255164131124DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:15FORECAST2023259-2658.7342.85450.792122.970290066670.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF26.73427.73166465.4645767076457.2383140134970.75371519798116164131124DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:04FORECAST2023259-2658.62241.93650.279133.38545360.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF26.622425.622166468.922155716762.5473944433620.75033095128242164131124DRYL
2023-06-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023259-2656.5740.8248.695137.6821096000.650.65FF24.57420.57166470.3221031625264.7549393549250.68165231143573163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023259-2656.91240.98248.947137.67512320.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF24.912420.912166470.3198392144864.7513418072580.69363851824878163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:04FORECAST2023259-2657.79441.55849.676135.84478480.019685050.019685050.650.66968505FF25.794421.794166469.7253305691363.8097364462720.72358750910027164131124DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023259-2657.75840.56849.163135.617901440270.019685050.029685050.650.67968505FF25.758425.758166469.6514443043863.6931432849540.72239368760339164131124DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023259-2657.2941.55849.424135.506418916670.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF25.29421.29166469.6151235817463.6358636656690.7066492363623164131124DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:05FORECAST2023259-2653.9640.17247.06632.6734904000.650.65FF21.96408.96166431.3244389830314.0928749163970.58467998655245163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023259-2654.64441.2747.95737.8812912000.650.65FF22.644415.644166433.5133602873316.4220458401350.61087868389807163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023259-2656.80440.53248.66837.01989760.031496080.031496080.650.68149608FF24.804422.804166433.1532984717816.0352907545280.68987490627047163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2023259-2655.72439.45247.58834.23793280.031496080.031496080.650.68149608FF23.724421.724166431.9850441866714.7902749134680.65119606025223163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023259-2652.23237.5844.90635.12117120.035433090.035433090.650.68543309FF20.232415.232166432.3568448258915.1848787666220.51706000770791163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:17FORECAST2023259-2653.70839.4746.58933.77018750.007874020.007874020.650.65787402FF21.708423.708166431.7878079547614.5815552348460.57492537406033163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023259-2649.96438.71444.33933.57615360.106299270.106299270.650.75629927FF17.964410.964166431.7059200303414.4950242809680.42787037971839162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:06FORECAST2023259-2650.97238.53444.75337.27227440.173228440.173228440.650.82322844FF18.972418.972166433.2588733726316.1485436145790.46732828655226162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:08FORECAST2023259-2648.8338.26443.54737.4581520.303149770.303149770.650.95314977FF16.83414.83166433.3365868933716.2319877390130.38434595064862162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023259-2652.64638.53445.5935.0340680.133858340.133858340.650.78385834FF20.646417.646166432.3202156541515.1459358330020.53338032595264163132127DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023259-2651.5337.54444.53735.6958080.122047310.122047310.650.77204731FF19.53413.53166432.5982916377915.4419455594310.48933551383256162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:11FORECAST2023259-2650.25239.50644.87934.47749490.334645850.334645850.650.98464585FF18.252417.252166432.0859706927914.8972418509220.43908826983307162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023259-2652.6138.87645.74333.56780960.232283590.232283590.570.80228359FF20.61422.61166431.7023977155714.491303890380.53196299738863163132127DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:06FORECAST2023259-2652.98839.6546.31935.64991440.208661530.208661530.580.78866153FF20.988422.988166432.5790213368215.4214050818930.54682132162071163132127DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:07FORECAST2023259-2651.11639.0245.06836.07972560.212598540.212598540.580.79259854FF19.116419.116166432.7594071463615.6138406606590.47300072656374162132126DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023259-2653.16837.14845.15835.532862998120.007874020.027874020.590.61787402FF21.168416.168166432.5298623565715.3690243417120.55387502974327163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023259-2657.88438.71448.29934.6490297199130.007874020.017874020.60.61787402FF25.884424.884166432.158199870914.9738623110310.7265610146657164131124DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:14FORECAST2023259-2656.26438.35447.30935.1300071500200.010.520.53FF24.264419.264166432.3605601210515.1888295684390.67076380961003163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:06FORECAST2023259-2656.69638.67847.68734.120109600.020.550.57FF24.696427.696166431.9353832332114.7376826160350.68609131497687163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:07FORECAST2023259-2656.42638.35447.3936.9241752000.590.59FF24.426422.426166433.1132379297815.9923490787590.67654709505741163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:06FORECAST2023259-2656.89438.9347.91236.026570400.030.560.59FF24.894432.894166432.7371093147815.5900339334210.69301265076898163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023259-2658.35235.11446.73336.0976152000.590.59FF26.352419.352166432.7669108957115.6218534208060.74176359751192164131124DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023259-2659.9937.70648.84834.25940480.059055150.059055150.560.61905515FF27.99437.99166431.9940927557914.7998604949290.79132422442868164131124DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:10FORECAST2023259-2656.335.29445.79733.7803324571430.070866180.070866180.770.84086618FF24.3437.3166431.7920883103314.5860802954870.67205258023216163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023259-2657.48840.02848.75829.4025776000.420.42FF25.488455.488166429.934744601712.6411896910880.71336069368151164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023259-2655.6738.64247.15637.6824264000.460.46FF23.67432.67166433.4303048935516.3327055636810.64921591727899163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:08FORECAST2023259-2657.39841.46849.43335.9006976000.70.7FF25.398444.398166432.6842955031115.5336680491260.71031905321255164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:05FORECAST2023259-2656.1240.0148.06533.79336320.03937010.03937010.310.3493701FF24.12444.12166431.7975860734314.5918926550630.66558855024152163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:06FORECAST2023259-2655.70640.31648.01133.337968000.230.23FF23.706445.706166431.6053436163714.3888451341120.65053646661169163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:11FORECAST2023259-2650.79233.29642.04435.42463890000FF18.792434.792166432.4843976416115.3206036163380.46024718994441162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:06FORECAST2023259-2646.23832.03639.13733.0851392000.080.08FF14.238425.238166431.4985173597414.2761885114410.29090182574618162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:08FORECAST2023259-2648.54234.50241.52237.689256000.220.22FF16.542440.542166433.4331579548716.3357732490490.37349756462349162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:05FORECAST2023259-2654.98637.74246.36438.2062496000.130.13FF22.986440.986166433.6489881077516.5681014784320.62379934082332163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:07FORECAST2023259-2658.1938.55248.37134.2858952000.060.06FF26.19448.19166432.005255461414.8116869145990.73655109549851164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023259-2657.57837.25647.41734.3312576000.050.05FF25.578445.578166432.0243688350114.8319398959520.71638712065819164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:16FORECAST2023259-2650.01831.74840.88335.4781682376660.007874020.007874020.040.04787402FF18.018433.018166432.506886765315.3445520926090.42996958179396162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:09FORECAST2023259-2638.49834.30436.40133.016180800.0100.01FF6.498414.498166431.4693688658714.2454706921370.093800108183084161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:05FORECAST2023259-2637.83234.32236.07739.2489558211550.007874020.007874020.040.04787402FF5.832414.832166434.0834270556317.0373212512020.08321116289781161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023259-2645.540.87443.18739.0472944000.390.39FF13.5418.5166433.9994954351416.9465060677080.26636774020368162131123DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:08FORECAST2023259-2649.94645.66247.80434.1887944000.310.31FF17.946438.946166431.9643347938314.7683398303990.42717109601768162131123DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:10FORECAST2023259-2649.94645.66247.80434.3839216000.280.28FF17.946432.946166432.0465559635914.8554549078020.42717109601768162131123DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:19FORECAST2023259-2643.17842.83643.00735.21510390000FF11.178429.178166432.3963368999615.2268819299120.19660308001316161131122.5DRYL