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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 15, 2023

[ Wednesday, June 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, June 16, 2023 ]

DAY 258 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/16/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.570
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 419

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 31 in
SWE DAY: 165
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 13.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-16 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023258-2754.532.4300243.4650131.3680475000.650.65FF22.5418.5165430.13488915242 13.492491634340.5697784063854216 3131123.5DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2023258-2652.0731.02841.54931.7515008000.650.65FF20.07416.07166430.9338862783213.6827976349130.4819079153557162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2023258-2652.62832.61242.6232.5855000.650.65FF20.628416.628166431.2872059148514.0537092483380.50216337534413163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:01FORECAST2023258-2651.47632.0941.78332.6951176000.650.65FF19.476415.476166431.3335892416514.1025024250860.46039809197904162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:12FORECAST2023258-2651.1731.60441.38732.693494083333000.650.65FF19.17415.17166431.3329023649414.1017796914150.44935835995396162131123DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2023258-2752.91632.0942.50333.0291464000.650.65FF20.916421.916165430.8412310891114.2303180967980.51261892046256163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 20:00:01FORECAST2023258-2752.91632.9942.95334.5721176000.650.65FF20.916422.916165431.4946776238514.9176847385860.51261892046256163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2023258-2753.00633.58443.29534.5280344000.650.65FF21.006423.006165431.4760439557214.8980196884790.51588483808718163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:04FORECAST2023258-2754.08634.53844.31233.6569976000.650.65FF22.086424.086165431.1074344131414.5097818853850.55493046101368163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 09:16:58FORECAST2023258-2753.79835.7844.78933.6057312000.650.65FF21.798423.798165431.0857138288414.4869506230920.54455452137325163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 09:16:56FORECAST2023258-2753.79835.7844.78933.6057312000.650.65FF21.798423.798165431.0857138288414.4869506230920.54455452137325163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2023258-2753.92435.13244.528125.5774904000.650.65FF21.924423.924165465.8378207766758.4987444665390.54909816080483163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:14FORECAST2023258-2756.0335.29445.662125.32027886667000.650.65FF24.03427.03165465.7515140812558.3681096272340.62364550235572163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:04FORECAST2023258-2755.47234.41244.942135.6843728000.650.65FF23.472425.472165469.1849064017763.6610597523510.60421811572462163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 20:00:03FORECAST2023258-2754.10433.0843.592139.755004000.650.65FF22.104422.104165470.508887277765.7559714235310.55557778464872163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023258-2753.47433.78243.628139.7647456000.650.65FF21.474422.474165470.5120393615965.760995483110.53284550688887163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2023258-2753.00634.30443.655137.9766208000.650.65FF21.006422.006165469.9321481207364.8396498029840.51588483808718163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:04FORECAST2023258-2754.10433.85443.979137.7511150402700.010.650.66FF22.104426.104165469.8588291060864.723577620880.55557778464872163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023258-2753.43834.6144.024137.66265811667000.650.65FF21.438422.438165469.8300575086964.6780545797520.53154256122191163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023258-2752.05233.20642.62934.5061904000.650.65FF20.052413.052165431.4668098727214.8882758927490.48125500966641162131123DRYL
2023-06-12 20:00:04FORECAST2023258-2752.89835.34844.12339.8274464000.650.65FF20.898418.898165433.7011853327317.2732107124560.51196562835324163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023258-2754.44635.99645.22139.1288064000.650.65FF22.446424.446165433.4095483636116.9587983098310.56784684116579163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2023258-2753.16835.8744.51936.146696000.650.65FF21.168424.168165432.1588748283815.6211154721240.52176065819901163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023258-2751.65634.55643.10636.765632000.650.65FF19.656420.656165432.4192313204615.8981663284510.46690689660451162131123DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:16FORECAST2023258-2753.00636.64444.82535.6293571000.650.65FF21.006428.006165431.9409410711115.3897780355330.51588483808718163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2023258-2751.54835.63643.59235.1746616000.650.65FF19.548418.548165431.749159819115.1866305927210.46300043941635162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:05FORECAST2023258-2753.22235.40244.31238.8914464000.650.65FF21.222426.222165433.3103480908316.852066177340.52371827751324163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:07FORECAST2023258-2753.70836.28444.99638.98286000.650.65FF21.708423.708165433.3485598152716.893166238480.54130545769459163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023258-2753.47434.9744.22236.8079248000.650.65FF21.474423.474165432.4370069241215.91710883160.53284550688887163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023258-2752.37632.91842.64737.316948000.650.65FF20.376420.376165432.650798922116.1452073655350.49301330857556162131123DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:10FORECAST2023258-2752.68234.32243.50236.1216605000.650.65FF20.682424.682165432.1483349869415.6099154420390.50412411989357163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023258-2753.43834.86244.1535.340092000.570.57FF21.438428.438165431.8189606090515.2605217952680.53154256122191163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:06FORECAST2023258-2753.43834.80844.12337.5072144000.580.58FF21.438428.438165432.7306407090216.2305209185230.53154256122191163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:06FORECAST2023258-2753.11436.39244.75337.7948376000.580.58FF21.114426.114165432.8512632532116.359543199610.51980251373525163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023258-2750.97231.5541.26137.3495237981200.020.590.61FF18.972420.972165432.6644714929616.1598119746280.44223529281865162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:07FORECAST2023258-2753.45633.76443.6136.75105051991300.010.60.61FF21.456425.456165432.4131023024415.8916357681890.53219407716728163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:14FORECAST2023258-2752.32234.10643.21437.1681663500200.010.520.53FF20.322421.322165432.5883385568616.078515328560.49105289414669162131123DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:05FORECAST2023258-2750.61236.53643.57436.143705600.020.550.57FF18.612428.612165432.1576159176615.6197776425260.42933355581025162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:06FORECAST2023258-2749.78435.9642.87238.946984000.590.59FF17.784423.784165433.3335643754816.8770353983950.39996609369955162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023258-2752.41235.94244.17738.138234400.030.560.59FF20.412434.412165432.9951605968816.513670928910.49432034820732162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023258-2747.3933.0840.23538.186352000.590.59FF15.39419.39165433.0153138210616.5352751949620.31869969439173162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023258-2751.42233.87242.64736.5884344000.560.56FF19.422436.422165432.3447346574715.81881696220.45844743775158162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:10FORECAST2023258-2748.9233.49441.20735.701002057143000.770.77FF16.92438.92165431.9711392526715.4218025310860.36991605860724162131123DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023258-2756.94837.27447.11131.59306000.420.42FF24.948455.948165430.2307448449213.592305735730.65491556798694163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023258-2753.47434.35843.91639.6466872000.460.46FF21.474435.474165433.6257796898117.1918256492180.53284550688887163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:07FORECAST2023258-2755.72435.45645.5938.2071936000.70.7FF23.724444.724165433.0240422001516.5446334137960.61302706231713163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:05FORECAST2023258-2757.00232.86444.93335.9599344000.310.31FF25.002446.002165432.0802328195615.5375768277280.65672487786922163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:06FORECAST2023258-2757.21833.845.50935.4999144000.230.23FF25.218448.218165431.8863673408615.3319290711280.66392592483466163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:10FORECAST2023258-2748.77630.9239.84836.74526530000FF16.776441.776165432.4106705442115.8890448076980.3649785703946162131123DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:06FORECAST2023258-2748.50632.2740.38834.0500496000.080.08FF16.506436.506165431.2738690239314.6848966314490.35578140720356162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:07FORECAST2023258-2751.6235.04243.33138.9441512000.220.22FF19.62449.62165433.3323802643716.8757617368720.4656043712201162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:05FORECAST2023258-2749.98238.10244.04239.895876000.130.13FF17.982443.982165433.7297224430117.3040272241010.40694406653314162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:07FORECAST2023258-2754.62637.86846.24736.341176000.060.06FF22.626447.626165432.2407272784315.7081363443940.5742788266224163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023258-2754.26636.545.38336.2893192000.050.05FF22.266446.266165432.2189058195215.6849298375590.56139682436329163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:15FORECAST2023258-2746.11233.36839.7436.529210886957000.040.04FF14.112441.112165432.3198286826315.7923021925610.27837743543257162131123DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:08FORECAST2023258-2749.51435.0642.28733.20628960.007874020.0078740200.00787402FF17.514433.514165430.9163812264514.309134148390.39050231839182162131123DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:05FORECAST2023258-2748.34434.1641.25239.344364000.040.04FF16.344435.344165433.4995849172517.0557654628330.35030271771145162131123DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023258-2760.15235.13247.64239.5589744000.390.39FF28.152431.152165433.5891768749317.1523431481120.75498970136285164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:08FORECAST2023258-2762.22236.84249.53234.847976000.310.31FF30.222447.222165431.61123372215.0407779140750.81023033004216164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:09FORECAST2023258-2762.22235.3348.77635.0431032000.280.28FF30.222441.222165431.6936298534415.1278844217370.81023033004216164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:18FORECAST2023258-2760.69234.747.69635.39556950000FF28.692443.692165431.8423619128315.285306334130.77017920359857164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:08FORECAST2023258-2739.9233.0836.534.803716000.030.03FF7.92438.92165431.5925384215315.0210241349420.12475240581766161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:09FORECAST2023258-2737.47233.24235.35740.001716000.090.09FF5.472434.472165433.7738509978517.3516983958420.08460681341496161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023258-2735.63632.25233.94440.4995089475220.094488240.124488240.090.21448824FF3.636428.636165433.9812399917917.5760271121040.061504005651378161132125DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:05FORECAST2023258-2731.9128.9430.42538.9449191185030.007874020.007874020.460.46787402FF-0.09413.91165433.3327012553416.8761070017920.029868979707916161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:09FORECAST2023258-2728.4924.51226.50139.0250676830590.007874020.007874020.440.44787402FF-3.51410.49165433.3662000206616.9121452873570.014055473716511161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:18FORECAST2023258-2736.15835.22235.6936.901897485714000.20.2FF4.158430.158165432.476496675715.9592033453080.06750641410645161131122.5DRYL