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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 13, 2023

[ Monday, June 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 14, 2023 ]

DAY 256 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/14/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.597
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 435

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 36 in
SWE DAY: 163
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 15.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-14 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023256-2953.7900834.8699244.33127.99843166667000.650.65FF21.79008434.79008163465.64608470177 59.601968553550.5974000837685216 3131123.5DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:01FORECAST2023256-2853.36633.4443.403138.1961312000.650.65FF21.366434.366164469.5165461616164.8853702139210.58123086545418163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:01FORECAST2023256-2852.93432.75642.845140.2023304000.650.65FF20.934433.934164470.169091613965.9188023263210.56461754715125163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2023256-2854.87833.51244.195140.0859232000.650.65FF22.878435.878164470.1313192846365.8587798872220.63806500509163163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023256-2853.45633.76443.61139.96216771667000.650.65FF21.456434.456164470.0911503015465.7949764206250.58467483933683163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2023256-2952.84431.74842.29636.4835384000.650.65FF20.844427.844163431.0372689794915.7257647546440.56114101587544163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 20:00:01FORECAST2023256-2954.93233.06243.99742.0373136000.650.65FF22.932431.932163433.3746082446218.2179043130560.64004759740653163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2023256-2955.45435.9645.70741.8325432000.650.65FF23.454432.454163433.2890135640218.1255813780020.65901178725975163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2023256-2956.28236.96846.62538.7971984000.650.65FF24.282433.282163432.0149948771916.7609714680250.68827038840312163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:04FORECAST2023256-2955.72435.4245.57239.0679952000.650.65FF23.724431.724163432.1290553124716.8824158587280.66866909231793163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:15FORECAST2023256-2957.63237.36447.49838.4362171000.650.65FF25.632435.632163431.8628264093916.5991733532910.73346576898325164131124DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2023256-2955.36437.07646.2237.726272000.650.65FF23.364429.364163431.5631480058416.2812687068450.65576901414438163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2023256-2956.42637.23846.83241.533388000.650.65FF24.426434.426163433.1638856798417.9907637315280.69324629495118163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:05FORECAST2023256-2956.2137.1346.6741.7077528000.650.65FF24.21431.21163433.236828942118.0693345653730.68576941930393163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:04FORECAST2023256-2957.14636.55446.8539.4397312000.650.65FF25.146432.146163432.2855039315717.0492240767180.71758172351163164131124DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023256-2955.74236.2345.98639.6644768000.650.65FF23.742429.742163432.3800186203617.1501272173510.66930903295367163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:09FORECAST2023256-2956.7537.56247.15638.5386597000.650.65FF24.75433.75163431.9060243595916.6450792951740.70431181806904164131124DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:05FORECAST2023256-2957.0238.8447.9337.8955400.010.560.57FF25.02438.02163431.6346476203516.3570280542830.71339062701089164131124DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:05FORECAST2023256-2957.2937.99447.64240.03688160.003937010.003937010.580.58393701FF25.29438.29163432.5365113011617.3174130906420.72233519333319164131124DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:05FORECAST2023256-2956.2135.4245.81540.3510728000.580.58FF24.21436.21163432.6684262695717.4586351666650.68576941930393163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023256-2955.50835.40245.45539.413714400.010.580.59FF23.508433.508163432.2745593215317.0375460234850.66095184973432163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:06FORECAST2023256-2955.79635.56445.6839.1181208000.60.6FF23.796435.796163432.1501597638316.9049021533810.67122588344077163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:13FORECAST2023256-2953.47434.7944.13239.35678495000.520.52FF21.474434.474163432.2506080181617.0119942242780.58536286321897163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023256-2956.35438.89447.62438.8016864000.550.55FF24.354439.354163432.0168858758416.7629837252590.6907627114926163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:05FORECAST2023256-2956.01237.83246.92241.3592600.020.570.59FF24.012437.012163433.0910092328517.9123236545240.67884795156277163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:04FORECAST2023256-2957.5640.51449.03741.19886800.020.540.56FF25.56440.56163433.0238530833617.8400925640330.73114134448916164131124DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023256-2956.10239.79447.94840.5652704000.590.59FF24.102434.102163432.7582980240617.554957377190.68200196211258163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023256-2958.51441.86450.18939.544862400.030.530.56FF26.514444.514163432.3297226041817.0964193918130.76109247527251164131124DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:09FORECAST2023256-2960.45844.25852.35838.610099657143000.770.77FF28.458449.458163431.936142477316.677097506570.8160706945567164131124DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:04FORECAST2023256-2961.35846.79654.07735.6006952000.420.42FF29.358455.358163430.6626725212115.3318905384450.83861668247833164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 20:00:04FORECAST2023256-2959.34244.34851.84542.70614000.460.46FF27.342441.342163433.6538698407118.5196828769590.78553552845803164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 16:00:06FORECAST2023256-2960.99845.93253.46541.8024344000.70.7FF28.998446.998163433.2764242348918.1120093011460.82982340362105164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:04FORECAST2023256-2957.77642.40450.0939.4017696000.310.31FF25.776447.776163432.2695342038817.0321845918010.73808396664218164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:05FORECAST2023256-2958.1943.3450.76539.1050936000.230.23FF26.19450.19163432.1446751620416.8990579709530.7511292451862164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:10FORECAST2023256-2958.29844.36651.33239.34125410000FF26.298453.298163432.2440732925917.0050239206230.75447465960173164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:06FORECAST2023256-2956.80444.2450.52236.6911056000.080.08FF24.804445.804163431.125219276715.8184609473040.70613811045954164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:06FORECAST2023256-2957.84845.12251.48542.2640688000.220.22FF25.848452.848163433.4693407108418.3201780384930.74037760153887164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:04FORECAST2023256-2957.07443.08850.08143.3258048000.130.13FF25.074447.074163433.9121814680718.7995944746280.71519041687434164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:06FORECAST2023256-2958.53243.48451.00840.3195864000.060.06FF26.532445.532163432.6552112706917.4444791722390.76163952930275164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:06FORECAST2023256-2957.93843.01650.47740.022812000.050.05FF25.938445.938163432.5306016362917.3110909535360.74323001347993164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:15FORECAST2023256-2959.43244.25851.84539.237572486957000.040.04FF27.432452.432163432.2004418444716.9584961657670.78810199481006164131124DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:07FORECAST2023256-2960.31443.3451.82736.4895040000FF28.314439.314163431.0397973685615.7284284102390.81228979765695164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023256-2960.67442.38651.5342.477912000.040.04FF28.674441.674163433.5586289007118.4166652852850.82165259735615164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:05FORECAST2023256-2960.29642.2651.27843.5207552000.390.39FF28.296426.296163433.9933638733818.8877189475580.81181384038016164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:08FORECAST2023256-2961.41244.13252.77239.1994208000.310.31FF29.412438.412163432.1843839035416.9413775278240.83990971711931164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:08FORECAST2023256-2960.844.76252.78139.1022016000.280.28FF28.8433.8163432.14345757216.8977605981010.82485899264603164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:18FORECAST2023256-2961.57444.22252.89839.52364630000FF29.574437.574163432.3207999646417.0868943859360.84374817017858164131124DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:07FORECAST2023256-2958.3744.22251.29636.9142976000.030.03FF26.37453.37163431.2197383863815.9181737537890.7566914625857164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:08FORECAST2023256-2956.26442.31449.28941.898376000.090.09FF24.264452.264163433.3165367402618.1552591833610.68764595300841163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023256-2957.8343.53850.68441.7953512000.090.09FF25.83448.83163433.273462411518.1088165271290.73980516514441164131124DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:04FORECAST2023256-2962.8744.74453.80740.4967664000.460.46FF30.87439.87163432.7295608414317.524147939770.87226721189612165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:07FORECAST2023256-2963.17645.46454.3240.460752000.440.44FF31.176440.176163432.7144509241117.5079520856570.87843779253731165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:18FORECAST2023256-2965.347.87656.58839.03589828571400.020.180.2FF33.3450.3163432.1155400926216.8680182707320.91556062985765165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:06FORECAST2023256-2964.72446.4955.60739.42062480.007874020.107874020.380.48787402FF32.724444.724163432.2774664226517.0406478133420.90645340979362165132129DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:10FORECAST2023256-2965.5748.3856.97542.241182400.070.320.39FF33.57452.57163433.4597818393718.3098537077410.91959409421501165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:08FORECAST2023256-2965.64249.20857.42542.029917600.060.610.67FF33.642454.642163433.371517467918.2145691693630.92064477893525165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:06FORECAST2023256-2961.3436.75249.04641.2165432000.30.3FF29.34451.34163433.0312550331417.8480514300230.83818416548383164131124DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:08FORECAST2023256-2962.5136.75249.63140.0928152000.280.28FF30.51465.51163432.5600030454617.3425482650130.86473393938434165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:16FORECAST2023256-2953.79835.29444.54641.350618872727000.140.14FF21.798442.798163433.0873918890817.9084316805890.5977005682323163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:05FORECAST2023256-2940.38836.3238.35443.7194456000.10.1FF8.388407.388163434.076062358518.9775647945450.14284378110668161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:06FORECAST2023256-2938.33626.29432.31547.66235360000FF6.336404.336163435.708568444820.7668958557660.10220615192103161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:08FORECAST2023256-2938.06623.21630.64147.8845408000.110.11FF6.066403.066163435.8000762454220.8680865316170.09755685581952161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:05FORECAST2023256-2926.16823.6324.89947.5427215188810.023622060.253622060.420.67362206FF-5.832392.168163435.6592765779520.7124276634630.0068016713412606161122124DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023256-2926.27623.73825.00749.0578390524760.023622060.223622060.340.56362206FF-5.724374.276163436.2824436735721.4030739031590.0070069202448296161122124DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:17FORECAST2023256-2924.1721.59622.88348.47779044189800.1600.16FF-7.83381.17163436.0441532381921.1384570840960.0038513054587456161122124DRYL