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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 1, 2023

[ Wednesday, May 31, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, June 2, 2023 ]

DAY 244 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/02/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.371
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 421

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.63 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.63 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 73 in
SWE DAY: 151
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.80 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -41

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-02 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023244-4148.6300231.2600239.9450272.523119090909000.630.63FF16.63002420.63002151438.52961326421 31.8035353676510.3713559832189716 2131123DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:01FORECAST2023244-4049.6428.47239.05681.0259384000.630.63FF17.64421.64152442.5262028081835.8561008491210.40747417635997162131123DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2023244-4048.3827.44637.91382.1078072000.630.63FF16.38420.38152442.952575636336.3698646790890.36257377301394162131123DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:02FORECAST2023244-4048.23627.57237.90482.1097752000.630.63FF16.236420.236152442.9533501731636.3708000068050.35754789244423162131123DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:18FORECAST2023244-4048.84828.1338.48982.573264716667000.630.63FF16.848420.848152443.135655856736.5911578164490.37906795711863162131123DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2023244-4149.5528.02238.78675.63224000.630.63FF17.55425.55151439.7832313097333.2617908983930.40421850302381162131123DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2023244-4149.80227.93238.86775.9937616000.630.63FF17.802426.802151439.9283577403833.4318107392020.41335037592771162131123DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:01FORECAST2023244-4148.41627.39237.90476.0595912000.630.63FF16.416425.416151439.9547695256533.4627799166110.36383399020987162131123DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2023244-4149.3729.62439.49775.6429656000.630.63FF17.37426.37151439.7875388299833.2668336710250.39772722712752162131123DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:03FORECAST2023244-4148.07429.08438.57975.6879344000.630.63FF16.074425.074151439.8055975228333.2879772140610.3519231861473162131123DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:12FORECAST2023244-4148.5629.2138.88575.232470654545000.630.63FF16.56426.56151439.6225957654333.0738940349980.36888947351995162131123DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:04FORECAST2023244-4150.5429.01239.77674.5076264000.630.63FF18.54425.54151439.3309221206132.733504211330.44034671642025162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:04FORECAST2023244-4150.39628.5839.48876.5526344000.630.63FF18.396426.396151440.1524452297533.6948292199390.43505320471418162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:03FORECAST2023244-4149.58629.58839.58776.421664000.630.63FF17.586426.586151440.0999594388733.6331712266510.40551999020806162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2023244-4149.33429.58839.46175.4303824000.630.63FF17.334427.334151439.7021411618333.1669006499350.39643229992829162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2023244-4151.18829.33640.26275.2525736000.630.63FF19.188429.188151439.6306774378433.0833399107090.46428613618677162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:13FORECAST2023244-4149.76629.35439.5675.255364290909000.630.63FF17.766426.766151439.6317993029933.0846512104150.41204282617524162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2023244-4149.78430.34440.06474.3758888000.630.63FF17.784426.784151439.2778538876632.6716808130510.412696479981162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:04FORECAST2023244-4150.25230.66840.4677.999292000.630.63FF18.252426.252151440.7310265925934.3767080366560.42977130674715162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2023244-4148.18229.71438.94878.2863248000.630.63FF16.182423.182151440.8455709647734.5121795551890.35566948005419162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023244-4148.6529.58839.11976.4788152000.630.63FF16.65425.65151440.1228646689833.6600752323140.37206076908532162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023244-4148.07430.07439.07476.6680384000.630.63FF16.074422.074151440.1986783883333.7491691783050.3519231861473162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:14FORECAST2023244-4148.68630.27239.47976.269265619048000.630.63FF16.686424.686151440.0388644993833.5614410392080.37333173422489162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:06FORECAST2023244-4149.2829.4839.3875.9196672000.630.63FF17.28421.28151439.898624714933.3969571900930.39449205301869162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023244-4150.6330.2940.4679.1037144000.630.63FF18.63425.63151441.171304337534.8982888597890.44366064522956162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2023244-4150.86428.5839.72279.1719056000.630.63FF18.864426.864151441.1984482819834.9305218982470.45229474680709162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023244-4149.13630.27239.70477.134632000.630.63FF17.136427.136151440.3854670459233.9689709387350.38933096104798162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:04FORECAST2023244-4149.7331.49640.61377.16612000.630.63FF17.73423.73151440.3980644788833.9838098913450.41073625199108162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:13FORECAST2023244-4147.98430.27239.12877.157799123809000.630.63FF15.984426.984151440.3947356362833.9798885474070.34881219409624162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:06FORECAST2023244-4145.21230.32637.76977.8146944000.650.65FF13.212419.212151440.6573162545534.2896143994720.25877228491334162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023244-4146.05831.87438.96679.6698888000.650.65FF14.058422.058151441.3965312202935.1660125590260.28494753536968162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 16:00:04FORECAST2023244-4145.84230.3838.11180.2893168000.650.65FF13.842419.842151441.6425718977235.4591803674620.27814611786311162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:04FORECAST2023244-4147.35427.8637.60779.3293264000.650.65FF15.354415.354151441.2610926894235.004945249580.32732896692872162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:04FORECAST2023244-4147.328.0437.6779.2680232000.650.65FF15.3417.3151441.2367005261134.9759610139950.3255126306175162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:14FORECAST2023244-4146.70627.93237.31978.828474225000.650.65FF14.706417.706151441.0616954222234.7682204892250.3058134463907162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:06FORECAST2023244-4150.97228.72439.84876.2149072000.70.7FF18.972416.972151440.0170670469733.5358599314010.45628759155598162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 20:00:06FORECAST2023244-4152.26830.39841.33379.3675648000.720.72FF20.268420.268151441.2763055884635.0230257784970.50443092636096163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 16:00:06FORECAST2023244-4151.27830.79441.03679.1791288000.720.72FF19.278422.278151441.2013232476934.9339364001590.4676233157707162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:05FORECAST2023244-4151.18831.47841.33377.6845312000.730.73FF19.188421.188151440.6053209441534.2282178017720.46428613618677162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023244-4148.79431.80240.29877.5409656000.660.66FF16.794421.794151440.5479519381534.1605135863870.37715285248358162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:09FORECAST2023244-4149.85631.31640.58677.172903000.670.67FF17.856425.856151440.40077802833.987006523880.41531349906687162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2023244-4150.70233.85442.27874.8915456000.650.65FF18.702424.702151439.4854761436732.9137465771510.44631463920435162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:07FORECAST2023244-4150.46834.12442.29678.5567688000.670.67FF18.468425.468151440.9534189657734.6398757852630.43769856692117162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023244-4150.32431.71241.01879.8014304000.690.69FF18.324413.324151441.4488127461635.2282467055250.43241074604162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:07FORECAST2023244-4159.4534.14246.79676.2783168000.810.81FF27.45433.45151440.0424936851133.5657007387750.75209858464044164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023244-4157.97435.2446.60776.0805328000.760.76FF25.974432.974151439.9631706718433.4726324370910.70657344888853164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:18FORECAST2023244-4162.0634.64648.35376.901568228571000.70.7FF30.06426.06151440.2921936755633.8591601724480.82243105258406164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023244-4166.14644.79855.47275.8138296000.70.7FF34.146435.146151439.856143889833.3471787413750.90426845759067165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:05FORECAST2023244-4163.33842.2652.79978.2515520.11811030.11811030.750.8681103FF31.338431.338151440.8316988476534.4957646056250.85175112241287165132129DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:05FORECAST2023244-4165.08443.1654.12277.5370696000.70.7FF33.084437.084151440.5463947997634.1586764756180.88629046966585165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:07FORECAST2023244-4164.02250.30657.16474.51294240.862205190.862205190.751.61220519FF32.022450.022151439.3330632073332.7359992331830.86603502175421651331213.5DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:05FORECAST2023244-4164.6750.23457.45275.04951760.82677210.82677210.821.6467721FF32.67445.67151439.5490270432332.9879424411430.878669582625671651331213.5DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:13FORECAST2023244-4162.29445.17653.73575.9687452347830.409449040.409449040.691.09944904FF30.294440.294151439.9183196556733.4200427500350.8280560341452164132128DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:03FORECAST2023244-4167.94646.11257.02973.8952856000.630.63FF35.946458.946151439.0841005012632.4462450089590.92983292617062165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023244-4171.0647.62459.34275.2620224000.720.72FF39.06464.06151439.634475848433.0877797691150.96130392616905165131119DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:08FORECAST2023244-4168.64847.55258.176.0285584000.750.75FF36.648454.648151439.9423192687933.4481803131590.9382462070288165131119DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:08FORECAST2023244-4160.13436.37448.25478.8015049201650.055118140.115118140.91.01511814FF28.134423.134151441.0509513113134.7554787098010.77184291423811164132128DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023244-4159.03637.34648.19179.1893514818960.074803190.144803190.981.12480319FF27.036420.036151441.2053919719134.9387688605710.73971984671755164132128DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:15FORECAST2023244-4164.2236.71650.46878.8776168494510.102362260.102362261.021.12236226FF32.22425.22151441.0812711130434.7914395023230.86998770719812165132129DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:09FORECAST2023244-4148.63234.01641.32481.425267200.030.480.51FF16.632408.632151442.092773845835.9975222375830.37142580766351162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2023244-4148.88437.29243.08880.965247200.020.520.54FF16.884413.884151441.9106143662835.779402132470.3803463473265162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:09FORECAST2023244-4151.24237.02244.13281.379412800.030.510.54FF19.242413.242151442.0746258939235.9757734690270.46628815760608162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:08FORECAST2023244-4140.6434.57437.60777.816742400.150.680.83FF8.64427.64151440.6581342162834.2905805167730.14144719540758161132125DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:06FORECAST2023244-4140.6434.57437.60777.94200274845500.190.70.89FF8.64423.64151440.7081545326834.3496761918520.14144719540758161132125DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:10FORECAST2023244-4134.26832.46833.36877.717147800.180.670.85FF2.268429.268151440.6183516651534.2436015597530.047504184689923161132125DRYL