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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 9, 2023

[ Monday, May 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 10, 2023 ]

DAY 221 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.311
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 301

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 133 in
SWE DAY: 128
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -64

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-10 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023221-6442.2900631.9299837.11002133.27729250.330000000000040.620000000000042.22.82FF10.29006301.29006128448.84499944675 59.8208462784270.3110441475085316 2123127.5DRYL
2023-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2023221-6340.04628.2234.133133.642906400.292.22.49FF8.046299.046129449.548165934660.0789234622890.24255909863414161122124DRYL
2023-05-09 12:00:01FORECAST2023221-6339.21826.56432.891133.728612800.292.22.49FF7.218298.218129449.5804577617460.1217709584670.21951911361851161122124DRYL
2023-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2023221-6339.4727.39233.431133.682758400.292.22.49FF7.47298.47129449.5631819525160.0988462384930.22639520390228161122124DRYL
2023-05-09 04:00:09FORECAST2023221-6340.02827.12233.575133.735779271430.007874020.297874022.22.49787402FF8.028299.028129449.5831575736860.1253539254270.24204470792635161122124DRYL
2023-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2023221-6440.53227.71634.124135.478041981670.019685050.469685052.22.66968505FF8.532298.532128449.6758781139860.921207493270.25666844052345162122125DRYL
2023-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2023221-6439.81227.48233.647135.694422330340.011811030.521811032.22.72181103FF7.812297.812128449.7573206107161.0295598091120.23591833429665161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2023221-6439.50627.9533.728135.65756800.512.22.71FF7.506297.506128449.7434523255361.0111029664060.22738731907347161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 12:00:05FORECAST2023221-6439.52428.00433.764135.434872645300.512.22.71FF7.524297.524128449.6596244309760.8995939685410.22788429207608161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2023221-6438.71427.64433.179135.6680275585900.572.22.77FF6.714296.714128449.7473883895661.0163410824370.20613225879834161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 04:00:11FORECAST2023221-6438.22828.09433.161135.3649348278500.592.22.79FF6.228296.228128449.6332883666960.8645807761890.19369265537301161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2023221-6438.4827.8633.17136.644345545800.462.22.66FF6.48295.48128450.1143291342361.5055779253340.20008481930224161122124DRYL
2023-05-07 16:00:04FORECAST2023221-6439.32628.29233.809136.4706227308100.512.22.71FF7.326298.326128450.0491034380861.4184814056380.22245123951966161123126DRYL
2023-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2023221-6437.27427.53632.405137.157563418310.106299270.486299272.22.68629927FF5.274293.274128450.3068530912961.7629907605670.17063951625764161122124DRYL
2023-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2023221-6438.82228.4933.656136.759274347410.114173290.484173292.22.68417329FF6.822296.822128450.1574643062661.5632081605920.20895947530487161122124DRYL
2023-05-07 04:00:11FORECAST2023221-6438.62428.05833.341136.001379022590.027559070.257559072.22.45755907FF6.624295.624128449.8727779981261.1833181924660.20379362755125161122124DRYL
2023-05-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023221-6438.0328.7633.395136.670990374370.023622060.453622062.042.49362206FF6.03295.03128450.1243306144161.5189380566730.18875846960989161122124DRYL
2023-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2023221-6437.16628.38232.774137.351377712910.070866180.540866182.052.59086618FF5.166293.166128450.379493590461.8602439382830.16814487646216161123126DRYL
2023-05-06 16:00:04FORECAST2023221-6437.59827.51832.558137.803797415430.11811030.64811032.052.6981103FF5.598293.598128450.5489188309962.0873519363260.17826438264107161123126DRYL
2023-05-06 12:00:04FORECAST2023221-6436.69828.07632.387136.955881059810.086614220.506614222.052.55661422FF4.698291.698128450.2312257097361.6618141977140.15760684797797161123126DRYL
2023-05-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023221-6436.7727.87832.324137.266022681280.125984320.545984322.052.59598432FF4.77291.77128450.3475074147761.8174111672540.15919928592884161123126DRYL
2023-05-06 04:00:11FORECAST2023221-6437.8528.41833.134137.703869907910.267716680.867716682.012.87771668FF5.85294.85128450.511514041562.0371789215880.18434057859311161123126DRYL
2023-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2023221-6438.01227.80632.909141.005805565730.114173290.914173292.052.96417329FF6.012293.012128451.7424797578163.6983122665110.18831377288835161123126DRYL
2023-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023221-6440.128.8534.475137.484774768860.062992160.802992162.092.89299216FF8.1300.1128450.4294692784961.9271941330090.24410581099477161123126DRYL
2023-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2023221-6438.82230.00234.412136.058045165450.019685050.549685052.12.64968505FF6.822299.822128449.8940823194461.2117093718870.20895947530487161123126DRYL
2023-05-05 12:00:04FORECAST2023221-6437.77828.32833.053137.934162572710.015748040.405748042.162.56574804FF5.778298.778128450.5977027487562.1528167858360.18259154349547161122124DRYL
2023-05-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023221-6436.57227.08631.829138.426045474620.015748040.425748042.222.64574804FF4.572294.572128450.7816247531862.3999176872070.15484528478194161122124DRYL
2023-05-05 04:00:11FORECAST2023221-6439.57828.83234.205139.2084721198400.272.272.54FF7.578295.578128451.0737121305862.7932822791210.22937886561373161122124DRYL
2023-05-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023221-6438.19228.02233.107140.043826603970.023622060.473622062.262.73362206FF6.192291.192128451.3849179303563.2136711782840.19278974081333161122124DRYL
2023-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2023221-6437.00426.36631.685143.531877775900.42.342.74FF5.004282.004128452.6772569846364.9736167214470.16444704101741161122124DRYL
2023-05-04 16:00:08FORECAST2023221-6437.86827.78832.828142.9049783101300.322.272.59FF5.868281.868128452.4458310284764.6567616696320.18477945710453161122124DRYL
2023-05-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023221-6436.44625.64631.046142.537867017720.051181130.411181132.352.76118113FF4.446278.446128452.3101371889764.4713221854070.15211579199866161122124DRYL
2023-05-04 08:00:03FORECAST2023221-6437.6726.56432.117142.312679634910.051181130.421181132.412.83118113FF5.67283.67128452.2268394686664.3576133276130.17998745144821161122124DRYL
2023-05-04 04:00:15FORECAST2023221-6438.17426.63632.405142.749537845470.031496080.401496082.322.72149608FF6.174285.174128452.3883916525764.5782338350580.1923392473371161122124DRYL
2023-05-04 00:00:07FORECAST2023221-6440.127.33833.719141.5779616742600.152.712.86FF8.1275.1128451.9547327810563.9868298361760.24410581099477161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023221-6441.16225.8833.521145.05916536338002.772.77FF9.162283.162128453.2395297719265.7465478984060.27557385279746162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-03 16:00:06FORECAST2023221-6438.5726.79832.684145.48962587679002.742.74FF6.57276.57128453.3976107112465.9646487558070.20239805679071161121122DRYL
2023-05-03 12:00:07FORECAST2023221-6437.88627.75232.819144.20291120430.015748040.225748042.943.16574804FF5.886274.886128452.9245674241565.3130411785090.18521898305595161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023221-6438.67827.5933.134143.960631507400.212.883.09FF6.678276.678128452.8353234732265.1904591360640.20519490670783161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 04:00:19FORECAST2023221-6435.74421.8328.787146.536977920680.082677210.562677212.763.32267721FF3.744266.744128453.7815158152466.4957719638320.13749458445778161123126DRYL
2023-05-03 00:00:05FORECAST2023221-6440.26220.28230.272142.5740824491900.212.432.64FF8.262270.262128452.3235289762664.489612113970.24877764022104161122124DRYL
2023-05-02 20:00:07FORECAST2023221-6440.35221.1130.731146.58621095900.22.312.51FF8.352265.352128453.799536981266.5207546610220.25139349445355162122125DRYL
2023-05-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023221-6443.62820.58832.108146.6829127396300.242.282.52FF11.628267.628128453.83492695466.5698289885880.35548297811391162122125DRYL
2023-05-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023221-6442.823.68433.242143.3153841551300.172.242.41FF10.8268.8128452.5973779386264.8641670868760.32770246357478162122125DRYL
2023-05-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023221-6443.17824.72833.953143.4986890755800.152.372.52FF11.178268.178128452.6650142932164.9568361414530.34027815509187162122125DRYL
2023-05-02 04:00:14FORECAST2023221-6442.06222.17232.117144.997019205790.051181130.291181132.692.98118113FF10.062270.062128453.2166931349365.715069558870.30371482435447162122125DRYL
2023-05-02 00:00:06FORECAST2023221-6438.89424.87231.883144.155265661610.035433090.145433092.162.30543309FF6.894268.894128452.9070214822465.2889320017830.21085688546624161122124DRYL
2023-05-01 20:00:07FORECAST2023221-6434.724.54829.624146.250946936450.125984320.255984322.392.64598432FF2.7256.7128453.6767729972766.3506576539220.11757209090124161122124DRYL
2023-05-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023221-6433.54826.27629.912149.140247778930.507874290.987874292.213.19787429FF1.548262.548128454.7313275688267.8187428664540.098056782777578161123126DRYL
2023-05-01 12:00:05FORECAST2023221-6437.74226.2431.991145.922019897850.346456880.596456882.182.77645688FF5.742279.742128453.5562277939166.1838408969370.18172091639218161123126DRYL
2023-05-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023221-6437.70625.17831.442146.993471201810.397638010.667638012.022.68763801FF5.706272.706128453.9485233385966.7274691924740.18085288517193161123126DRYL
2023-05-01 04:00:11FORECAST2023221-6437.6725.17831.424148.461072181420.366141930.726141932.12.82614193FF5.67267.67128454.4841332735967.4732017152420.17998745144821161123126DRYL
2023-05-01 00:00:07FORECAST2023221-6436.520.35428.427149.097797033540.074803190.644803192.12.74480319FF4.5266.5128454.7158895897167.7971374139730.1532816483971161123126DRYL
2023-04-30 20:00:06FORECAST2023221-6435.56420.04827.806152.015883102030.074803190.654803192.042.69480319FF3.564258.564128455.7732380848869.2847712817450.13390504045296161123126DRYL
2023-04-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023221-6432.21622.49627.356154.513838170160.066929170.896929172.653.54692917TF0.216261.216128456.6721500719870.5621666930420.078572612009597161123126DRYL
2023-04-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023221-6443.32230.6536.986148.038663250370.35433090.72433093.083.8043309TF11.322292.322128454.3301771340367.2584320972240.34511695005315162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-30 08:00:06FORECAST2023221-6443.32230.61436.968147.579222640910.377952960.777952963.213.98795296TF11.322287.322128454.1625363468367.024954066690.34511695005315162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-30 04:00:17FORECAST2023221-6450.39629.13839.767143.807948397700.322.622.94FF18.396303.396128452.7790542910765.113226875050.59802950921787163122126DRYL
2023-04-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023221-6445.28428.74237.013143.064570694420.007874020.497874021.922.41787402FF13.284290.284128452.5047810587264.7374022393370.41326757383484162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 20:00:07FORECAST2023221-6445.28427.28436.284148.7263324933800.381.872.25FF13.284276.284128454.5807287741567.6081246127470.41326757383484162122125DRYL
2023-04-29 16:00:05FORECAST2023221-6443.68225.82634.754148.836335529490.011811030.571811032.012.58181103FF11.682270.682128454.6207676899267.6640891185710.35732368556281162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023221-6441.21635.99638.606144.9642212001900.632.282.91FF9.216296.216128453.2046395101365.6984576108980.27722558419943162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023221-6441.21635.99638.606145.3604888278300.622.252.87FF9.216292.216128453.3502049821565.8992074064010.27722558419943162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 04:00:15FORECAST2023221-6439.95638.64239.299141.5855061333300.522.322.84FF7.956301.956128451.9575294926163.9906355639820.23999306440848161123126DRYL