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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 8, 2023

[ Sunday, May 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 9, 2023 ]

DAY 220 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 290

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 127
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-09 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023220-6541.1499429.0335.08997134.033524583330.0499999999999550.499999999999952.42.9FF9.14994290.14994127448.56463634306 60.1226992125010.2682324359993316 2123127.5DRYL
2023-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2023220-6440.47826.52833.503135.770700876670.212598540.662598542.43.06259854FF8.478289.478128449.786020105361.0677631942260.24780201549176161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2023220-6439.81225.84432.828135.75821504530.271653690.721653692.43.12165369FF7.812288.812128449.7813227423361.0615095362120.22840109717106161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2023220-6439.72225.46632.594135.954961958590.326771830.776771832.43.17677183FF7.722288.722128449.8553246571161.1600635506250.22584632168534161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 04:00:11FORECAST2023220-6439.5626.0632.81135.645079627850.350393890.800393892.43.20039389FF7.56288.56128449.7387526563761.0048489158030.22128863081739161123126DRYL
2023-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2023220-6540.6426.45633.548136.92291594580.346456880.666456882.43.06645688FF8.64287.64127449.6566047412861.5682934954630.2526505714358162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-07 16:00:01FORECAST2023220-6543.12427.28435.204136.788749930810.405512030.715512032.43.11551203FF11.124290.124127449.6060774993961.5010533024380.33274397988072162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2023220-6540.38828.14834.268136.990317992090.27559070.58559072.42.9855907FF8.388287.388127449.6819820157161.6020777116460.24512996201265161123126DRYL
2023-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2023220-6541.12628.47234.799136.689197565340.27559070.57559072.42.9755907FF9.126289.126127449.568574710761.4511677278010.26749026049878162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-07 04:00:11FORECAST2023220-6540.33428.02234.178136.172519356410.208661530.438661532.42.83866153FF8.334288.334127449.3737822970461.1923600681060.24353418732401161122124DRYL
2023-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2023220-6542.02627.46434.745136.80511355780.389763990.479763992.42.87976399FF10.026288.026127449.6122410024461.5092536873130.2960824011923162122125DRYL
2023-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2023220-6541.23427.98634.61137.296585033750.444882130.534882132.42.93488213FF9.234287.234127449.7972386862461.7556248292320.27084658929331162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2023220-6540.24429.334.772137.610984451820.519685320.589685322.42.98968532FF8.244287.244127449.9154625664761.9133097238680.24088706050326161123126DRYL
2023-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2023220-6539.95628.41834.187136.779758594730.389763990.479763992.42.87976399FF7.956285.956127449.6026907250661.4965475009150.2325222559185161122124DRYL
2023-05-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023220-6540.06427.7733.917136.957451395130.381889970.481889972.42.88188997FF8.064286.064127449.669608087761.5856034935390.2356400179497161122124DRYL
2023-05-06 04:00:10FORECAST2023220-6541.23427.17634.205136.921701159670.578740470.618740472.43.01874047FF9.234288.234127449.6561473271661.5676846289390.27084658929331162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2023220-6540.42427.9534.187140.800012517440.759842930.809842932.453.25984293FF8.424286.424127451.1093150396163.5161972043090.24619692307211161123126DRYL
2023-05-05 20:00:02FORECAST2023220-6540.13629.96635.051137.668823353570.720472830.740472832.53.24047283FF8.136291.136127449.9372014979261.9423251132190.23773124817151161123126DRYL
2023-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2023220-6540.22629.19234.709136.316649168850.519685320.539685322.53.03968532FF8.226292.226127449.4281462673861.2645389413350.24035951677667161123126DRYL
2023-05-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023220-6540.35229.2134.781138.173176172710.342519870.462519872.52.96251987FF8.352292.352127450.1266287930862.1954259802540.24406548890597161122124DRYL
2023-05-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023220-6539.57828.29233.935138.531081728640.385826980.505826982.533.03582698FF7.578288.578127450.2609055825162.3751303104620.22179243305004161123126DRYL
2023-05-05 04:00:11FORECAST2023220-6538.37228.59833.485139.554348119840.240157610.360157612.592.95015761FF6.372287.372127450.6441356141262.8893485796560.18950839659834161122124DRYL
2023-05-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023220-6538.76828.88633.827140.14370009810.3937010.6837012.443.123701FF6.768283.768127450.8644059645663.1858060944040.19977645417623161123126DRYL
2023-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2023220-6537.0427.06832.054143.70122417590.303149770.623149772.533.15314977FF5.04276.04127452.1870511522964.9798328070730.15741021908981161123126DRYL
2023-05-04 16:00:08FORECAST2023220-6535.31228.29231.802143.147534310130.232283590.522283592.483.00228359FF3.312275.312127451.9819803340964.7001060374340.12140988877019161123126DRYL
2023-05-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023220-6536.10425.0730.587142.405237884240.232283590.512283592.613.12228359FF4.104273.104127451.7066021739964.3253861364670.13712301500784161123126DRYL
2023-05-04 08:00:03FORECAST2023220-6536.33825.95231.145142.270164483580.248031630.588031632.63.18803163FF4.338277.338127451.6564365968564.2572355247010.14201952921961161123126DRYL
2023-05-04 04:00:15FORECAST2023220-6536.15827.0531.604142.816619328350.212598540.572598542.533.10259854FF4.158278.158127451.8592811701264.5330149488570.13824264275186161123126DRYL
2023-05-04 00:00:06FORECAST2023220-6538.49826.31232.405141.957293674260.051181130.371181132.93.27118113FF6.498266.498127451.5401718368564.0994207791710.19273979873549161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 20:00:05FORECAST2023220-6538.64225.8832.261145.4871069633800.13.083.18FF6.642272.642127452.8465289469665.8833313949030.19647368632073161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 16:00:06FORECAST2023220-6538.01226.0632.036145.7594386767900.133.023.15FF6.012269.012127452.9468310095466.0212758383810.18046061986483161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 12:00:07FORECAST2023220-6533.40427.35630.38144.318867649140.086614220.386614223.173.55661422TF1.404268.404127452.4154685088565.2920881221520.088853739729618161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023220-6534.1627.12230.641144.16973150740.086614220.346614223.153.49661422FF2.16269.16127452.3603476851365.2166698703610.10087909835706161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 04:00:19FORECAST2023220-6532.39624.45828.427146.2906431750.271653690.611653693.043.65165369TF0.396262.396127453.1422785546866.2904753795470.074519337439072161123126DRYL
2023-05-03 00:00:05FORECAST2023220-6531.26223.19827.23142.943672849190.086614220.226614222.823.04661422FF-0.738261.262127451.9064032344764.5971610624030.060575233609214161122124DRYL
2023-05-02 20:00:06FORECAST2023220-6530.50622.24426.375146.9472405590.07874020.19874022.722.9187402FF-1.494255.506127453.3834981056266.6234539616070.052471572778102161122124DRYL
2023-05-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023220-6532.64822.60427.626147.155823139630.07874020.28874022.642.9287402FF0.648254.648127453.4600426344666.7292858348040.077926284099834161122124DRYL
2023-05-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023220-6535.4223.86429.642143.8694745551300.232.592.82FF3.42257.42127452.2493091457965.0648704747240.12347494493471161122124DRYL
2023-05-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023220-6535.09624.02629.561144.0915490755800.212.722.93FF3.096256.096127452.3314430596165.1771383260510.1173526857583161122124DRYL
2023-05-02 04:00:14FORECAST2023220-6534.66423.46829.066145.547173605790.062992160.3429921633.34299216FF2.664258.664127452.8686579612665.9137531809080.1095275937704161122124DRYL
2023-05-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023220-6537.61623.61230.614144.463060861610.106299270.176299272.52.67629927FF5.616260.616127452.468742572665.3650194962440.17082608362801161122124DRYL
2023-05-01 20:00:06FORECAST2023220-6537.3121.90229.606145.625944937960.086614220.186614222.742.92661422FF5.31253.31127452.8976728110565.9536515633110.16361050525468161122124DRYL
2023-05-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023220-6537.16622.3729.768145.944828981830.291338740.561338742.543.10133874FF5.166260.166127453.0150721382366.1152072294060.16028426221261161123126DRYL
2023-05-01 12:00:05FORECAST2023220-6534.86222.92828.895143.85579105860.173228440.293228442.552.84322844FF2.862272.862127452.2442468105865.0579538766370.11306645298394161122124DRYL
2023-05-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023220-6534.6123.21628.913144.460040607580.181102460.321102462.382.70110246FF2.61265.61127452.467626900465.3634917556470.1085763604268161122124DRYL
2023-05-01 04:00:11FORECAST2023220-6534.6123.0928.85146.060677682490.188976480.388976482.482.86897648FF2.61260.61127453.0576990821466.1739145572060.1085763604268161122124DRYL
2023-05-01 00:00:07FORECAST2023220-6533.824.13428.967148.661381011490.283464720.773464722.313.08346472FF1.8260.8127454.0113431394567.4939532659910.095012904400191161123126DRYL
2023-04-30 20:00:06FORECAST2023220-6532.82822.96427.896151.513673342480.287401730.727401732.33.02740173FF0.828253.828127455.0500238493168.9463006679910.080431031548517161123126DRYL
2023-04-30 16:00:06FORECAST2023220-6532.4525.75429.102154.051942458490.452756151.002756152.893.89275615TF0.45260.45127455.9680442113670.242762909760.075239688433229161124128DRYL
2023-04-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023220-6541.7230.23635.978148.705238085640.082677211.042677212.823.86267721TF9.72279.72127454.0273710068667.516248302970.286204997829811621241210DRYL
2023-04-30 08:00:06FORECAST2023220-6541.61230.18235.897147.874494954670.102362261.152362262.874.02236226TF9.612274.612127453.723466643667.0941284790030.282756564887241621241210WETL
2023-04-30 04:00:17FORECAST2023220-6542.0828.8535.465144.91120919770.03937010.55937012.793.3493701FF10.08284.08127452.634192320465.5917681333740.29784156699739162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023220-6544.0628.18436.122143.113542279940.228346580.508346582.312.81834658FF12.06276.06127451.9693812638964.6829391547470.36533016552722162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 20:00:07FORECAST2023220-6542.24226.92434.583148.853465293380.173228440.403228442.262.66322844FF10.242262.242127454.0815284398567.5916090339850.30314741181689162122125DRYL
2023-04-29 16:00:05FORECAST2023220-6540.80225.35833.08148.838800038530.279527710.579527712.42.97952771FF8.802257.802127454.0761711383467.5841524383210.25754856438116162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023220-6546.00432.77439.389145.226654000190.614173560.654173562.673.32417356FF14.004286.004127452.7505369985565.7514455850880.43594023457328162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023220-6546.00432.4539.227145.622921627830.614173560.644173562.643.28417356FF14.004282.004127452.8965593037865.9521201610080.43594023457328162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-29 04:00:14FORECAST2023220-6552.68234.82643.754141.705160533330.523622330.573622332.683.25362233FF20.682292.682127451.4464103222963.9722860469170.67985391534614163123129DRYL
2023-04-29 00:00:07FORECAST2023220-6533.0824.83628.958145.2619757713900.192.782.97FF1.08257.08127452.7635588321565.7693291132440.084038873960276161122124DRYL
2023-04-28 20:00:05FORECAST2023220-6533.72824.83629.282147.0966837464500.22.552.75FF1.728261.728127453.4383440925666.6992766994990.093870343399198161122124DRYL
2023-04-28 16:00:06FORECAST2023220-6533.29626.85230.074149.469323473230.03937010.38937012.362.7493701FF1.296261.296127454.3063248983267.9048590321620.087226552015047161122124DRYL
2023-04-28 12:00:06FORECAST2023220-6527.93223.79225.862148.831165777190.125984320.565984322.162.72598432FF-4.068240.932127454.0733822200167.5802708241960.031118608398311161123126DRYL
2023-04-28 08:00:07FORECAST2023220-6527.78823.68425.736148.502211121510.125984320.575984321.952.52598432FF-4.212242.788127453.9531584145767.4130477701590.03017553846633161123126DRYL
2023-04-28 04:00:15FORECAST2023220-6535.31233.42234.367148.018307216660.03937010.49937012.583.0793701FF3.312268.312127453.7761222835167.1671734757460.12140988877019161123126DRYL