Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 7, 2023

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DAY 219 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/08/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.62°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.44°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.03°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.158 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 278 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.24 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.87 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.60 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.47 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 136 in SWE DAY: 126 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.55 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 60.78 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -66 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-08 04:00:10	OBSERVATION	2023	219	-66	36.62006	31.44002	34.03004	135.50005708333	0.24000000000001	0.87000000000001	2.6	3.47	T	F	4.62006	277.62006	126	448.55343465813	60.779016001102	0.15835907020459	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	219	-65	34.934	27.158	31.046	137.15676887231	0.11023628	0.74023628	2.6	3.34023628	F	F	2.934	275.934	127	449.74463316046	61.685520701949	0.12313938349682	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-07 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	219	-65	34.844	27.518	31.181	137.13967470788	0.09842525	0.72842525	2.6	3.32842525	F	F	2.844	275.844	127	449.73820023662	61.676950484156	0.12142702921644	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	219	-65	36.374	27.824	32.099	137.02423603223	0.08661422	0.71661422	2.6	3.31661422	F	F	4.374	277.374	127	449.69475071797	61.619079664833	0.15284465793817	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-07 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	219	-65	35.708	27.068	31.388	136.54270015641	0.01968505	0.64968505	2.6	3.24968505	F	F	3.708	276.708	127	449.51336980992	61.377769270253	0.1385630784667	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.952	27.248	31.1	136.99734548451	0.0393701	0.5093701	2.6	3.1093701	F	F	2.952	274.952	126	449.12033777198	61.528294077869	0.1234838692081	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.88	27.014	30.947	137.01161401764	0.02755907	0.50755907	2.6	3.10755907	F	F	2.88	274.88	126	449.12572975782	61.535441130968	0.12210995742217	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	36.104	27.572	31.838	136.88465491869	0.00787402	0.48787402	2.6	3.08787402	F	F	4.104	276.104	126	449.07774587327	61.471852275525	0.14694160403678	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.348	28.58	31.964	136.96512690911	0.03149608	0.51149608	2.6	3.11149608	F	F	3.348	275.348	126	449.10816186311	61.512156385497	0.13123322176864	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.402	27.932	31.667	137.05559547486	0.0393701	0.5193701	2.6	3.1193701	F	F	3.402	275.402	126	449.14234883489	61.557472072544	0.13231534288438	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.42	27.95	31.685	136.78740785352	0.01574804	0.45574804	2.6	3.05574804	F	F	3.42	276.42	126	449.04098111316	61.423151826469	0.13267740878999	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.906	28.148	32.027	139.34337956856	0.04330711	0.52330711	2.6	3.12330711	F	F	3.906	274.906	126	450.00426859977	62.70511560697	0.14271089138305	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	37.4	29.354	33.377	136.63348800717	0.02362206	0.54362206	2.6	3.14362206	F	F	5.4	280.4	126	448.98277234778	61.346082241006	0.17668740315347	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	38.174	29.336	33.755	136.61719049938	0.01181103	0.54181103	2.6	3.14181103	F	F	6.174	281.174	126	448.9766076918	61.337922742797	0.19614537479921	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	38.498	28.922	33.71	138.36617829947	0.04724412	0.63724412	2.6	3.23724412	F	F	6.498	281.498	126	449.63672194941	62.214514839241	0.20466144155065	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	37.994	27.374	32.684	138.67137454095	0.01968505	0.66968505	2.6	3.26968505	F	F	5.994	277.994	126	449.75161087663	62.367674082266	0.19150831077906	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	37.886	27.014	32.45	139.24522656356	0.02755907	0.72755907	2.6	3.32755907	F	F	5.886	277.886	126	449.96739232059	62.655811489895	0.18875851894537	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	37.706	25.646	31.676	140.00013055183	0.05511814	0.78511814	2.56	3.34511814	T	F	5.706	273.706	126	450.25077483245	63.035167257608	0.18422981845239	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.618	25.79	30.704	143.04187100349	0.10236226	0.92236226	2.55	3.47236226	T	F	3.618	267.618	126	451.38712044203	64.567258254907	0.13670505501987	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	36.446	26.132	31.289	142.52518774557	0.09448824	0.84448824	2.55	3.39448824	T	F	4.446	269.446	126	451.19471430518	64.306611366152	0.15444493231355	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	33.818	25.412	29.615	142.15702257514	0.13385834	0.96385834	2.55	3.51385834	T	F	1.818	265.818	126	451.05746022699	64.120985556175	0.10307877258364	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.412	25.25	29.831	141.77847982279	0.12204731	0.95204731	2.61	3.56204731	T	F	2.412	270.412	126	450.91620343368	63.930213850292	0.11344020865025	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.898	26.114	30.506	142.22357990469	0.1574804	0.9374804	2.57	3.5074804	T	F	2.898	270.898	126	451.08228268491	64.154537075029	0.1224524279387	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.106	25.214	29.66	142.13047749718	0.09842525	1.18842525	2.65	3.83842525	T	F	2.106	257.106	126	451.04755910867	64.107604950051	0.10801359365954	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-03 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.628	24.566	29.597	145.72631736338	0	1.01	2.79	3.8	T	F	2.628	262.628	126	452.38271949596	65.924067750978	0.1173856710015	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-03 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.52	25.214	29.867	145.97641067679	0	0.96	2.81	3.77	T	F	2.52	259.52	126	452.47512810522	66.050695121319	0.1154009947852	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-03 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.708	24.692	30.2	143.95476210457	0.12204731	1.23204731	2.86	4.09204731	T	F	3.708	263.708	126	451.72645264985	65.028174027549	0.1385630784667	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	36.284	24.62	30.452	143.85751387288	0.1181103	1.1781103	2.85	4.0281103	T	F	4.284	264.284	126	451.69034178789	64.979049609995	0.15085978980446	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.186	22.496	28.841	144.98102246223	0.20866153	1.27866153	2.72	3.99866153	T	F	3.186	259.186	126	452.1069872415	65.546933272593	0.12802348732214	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.232	23.36	28.796	142.44994726098	0.12204731	0.93204731	2.65	3.58204731	T	F	2.232	259.232	126	451.16667465688	64.268669010783	0.11022507831569	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	33.854	23.144	28.499	146.46873895351	0.12204731	0.83204731	2.63	3.46204731	T	F	1.854	253.854	126	452.6568702585	66.300080965406	0.10368654197229	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	33.602	24.152	28.877	146.70765105553	0.1574804	0.7474804	2.72	3.4674804	T	F	1.602	250.602	126	452.74498238818	66.421152893347	0.099486259604635	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	33.422	26.042	29.732	143.93973215513	0.16535442	0.65535442	2.78	3.43535442	T	F	1.422	251.422	126	451.72087221152	65.020581355006	0.096562882579071	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	33.836	25.52	29.678	144.17135147558	0.15354339	0.65354339	2.9	3.55354339	T	F	1.836	249.836	126	451.8068460113	65.137603595368	0.10338233411849	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.916	25.556	30.236	145.22184725723	0.18110246	0.83110246	3.07	3.90110246	T	F	2.916	252.916	126	452.19614082524	65.668758893231	0.12279556985144	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.808	24.206	29.507	144.43966940042	0	0.31	2.88	3.19	F	F	2.808	251.808	126	451.90637859661	65.273207924436	0.12074678248043	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-01 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	33.332	25.034	29.183	145.52536167024	0.0393701	0.3193701	3.14	3.4593701	F	F	1.332	245.332	126	452.30842452052	65.822347064843	0.095125003877582	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-01 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.646	26.276	30.461	145.13151316899	0.18503947	0.32503947	3.1	3.42503947	F	F	2.646	251.646	126	452.16270544535	65.623057639866	0.11771877903227	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	38.624	26.024	32.324	143.01439949126	0.08267721	0.27267721	3.02	3.29267721	F	F	6.624	266.624	126	451.37689676222	64.553395834677	0.20803164758906	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-01 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	36.482	26.51	31.496	143.54363023694	0.08661422	0.26661422	2.87	3.13661422	F	F	4.482	260.482	126	451.57372754729	64.820532171766	0.15524919718263	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	36.086	25.502	30.794	145.11266787123	0.16535442	0.56535442	2.73	3.29535442	F	F	4.086	255.086	126	452.1557292631	65.61352416663	0.14655356328626	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.618	26.366	30.992	146.85619516757	0.29133874	0.88133874	2.54	3.42133874	T	F	3.618	255.618	126	452.79973934251	66.496446892707	0.13670505501987	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.042	25.124	30.083	149.58871861689	0.29133874	0.83133874	2.53	3.36133874	T	F	3.042	250.042	126	453.8033367812	67.883859653171	0.12521639019686	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	34.592	27.986	31.289	151.10078832071	0.37795296	1.39795296	2.66	4.05795296	T	F	2.592	256.592	126	454.35570124613	68.6535046363	0.1167214524921	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-04-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	41	27.878	34.439	149.26631488564	0.28740173	1.83740173	2.56	4.39740173	T	F	9	267	126	453.68528690517	67.719930894167	0.27743078131321	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2023-04-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	40.766	27.86	34.313	148.42888055467	0.30314977	1.99314977	2.55	4.54314977	T	F	8.766	261.766	126	453.37820373171	67.294419247783	0.27012694913652	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2023-04-30 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	44.078	30.218	37.148	145.4597891977	0.2755907	1.4455907	2.48	3.9255907	T	F	12.078	271.078	126	452.28417363009	65.789160553689	0.38134869761578	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-04-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	40.622	32	36.311	143.36675663348	0.26377967	0.65377967	2.56	3.21377967	F	F	8.622	260.622	126	451.50797439037	64.731233882498	0.26568053275638	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	38.66	30.542	34.601	149.33513329338	0.21259854	0.62259854	2.49	3.11259854	F	F	6.66	248.66	126	453.71049325449	67.754916986763	0.20900053566283	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-29 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	38.606	29.282	33.944	148.51545825797	0.28346472	0.70346472	2.62	3.32346472	F	F	6.606	245.606	126	453.40998164509	67.338391202757	0.20754819751969	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-29 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	45.5	33.152	39.326	146.16900800355	0.01574804	0.51574804	2.81	3.32574804	F	F	13.5	268.5	126	452.54625214855	66.148236752279	0.43304031255746	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	45.644	32.864	39.254	146.57147133339	0.00787402	0.42787402	2.86	3.28787402	F	F	13.644	264.644	126	452.69476509198	66.352137784457	0.43835542882699	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	45.95	33.746	39.848	143.37491013333	0	0.56	2.79	3.35	F	F	13.95	268.95	126	451.51100612167	64.735349926905	0.44968586232386	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	42.098	33.17	37.634	145.27102857139	0.06692917	0.59692917	2.99	3.58692917	T	F	10.098	253.098	126	452.2143410929	65.693642465298	0.3129327867666	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	42.278	33.314	37.796	147.11813494645	0.08267721	0.57267721	2.8	3.37267721	F	F	10.278	257.278	126	452.89624636127	66.62925108892	0.3189346597671	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	41.594	33.53	37.562	149.1753275469	0.20078751	0.70078751	2.63	3.33078751	F	F	9.594	256.594	126	453.65195390266	67.67367881572	0.29639297825272	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	40.298	26.6	33.449	147.53597315542	0.27165369	0.52165369	2.7	3.22165369	F	F	8.298	242.298	126	453.05005852185	66.841181272141	0.25581344824865	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	40.19	26.474	33.332	147.20228981331	0.2755907	0.5255907	2.49	3.0155907	F	F	8.19	244.19	126	452.92723808868	66.671926565473	0.25256738779468	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	52.664	33.134	42.899	147.73732419516	0.23228359	0.64228359	3.02	3.66228359	T	F	20.664	261.664	126	453.12412042469	66.943345079828	0.69249488144144	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-04-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	51.674	33.944	42.809	147.29978091391	0	0.17	3.09	3.26	F	F	19.674	267.674	126	452.96313287168	66.721370234077	0.6591433451107	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-27 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	51.674	34.322	42.998	150.83607842249	0	0.17	3.05	3.22	F	F	19.674	261.674	126	454.25915489701	68.518669512181	0.6591433451107	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-27 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.996	30.65	33.323	154.14283461746	0.1181103	0.4481103	3.03	3.4781103	F	F	3.996	228.996	126	455.46056496218	70.205982539743	0.14462365419909	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-27 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.114	32.432	33.773	149.03274730419	0	0.56	2.91	3.47	T	F	3.114	243.114	126	453.59970446165	67.601210132288	0.12661453700008	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-27 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.276	32.594	33.935	150.00642852093	0	0.67	2.98	3.65	T	F	3.276	239.276	126	453.95613983868	68.096339242348	0.12979989618552	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	219	-66	35.474	34.358	34.916	148.45352300076	0	0.61	2.88	3.49	T	F	3.474	242.474	126	453.38724932988	67.306934446644	0.13376768654002	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L