Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 6, 2023

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DAY 218 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/07/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.71°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.41°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.196 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 269 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.21 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.71 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.73 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.44 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 137 in SWE DAY: 125 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.41 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 61.26 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -67 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-07 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	218	-67	37.11992	31.71002	34.41497	136.61225958333	0.21000000000004	0.71000000000004	2.73	3.44	T	F	5.11992	269.11992	125	448.40774990293	61.257995928917	0.19641951253033	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	218	-66	36.302	27.788	32.045	136.94070564313	0.05118113	0.55118113	2.73	3.28118113	F	F	4.302	268.302	126	449.09893201681	61.499924653961	0.17628824769132	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	218	-66	35.654	27.968	31.811	137.00344504739	0.06299216	0.56299216	2.73	3.29299216	F	F	3.654	267.654	126	449.12264278102	61.531349309787	0.1613000655658	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	218	-66	35.78	27.554	31.667	137.02664363833	0.06299216	0.56299216	2.73	3.29299216	F	F	3.78	267.78	126	449.13140914237	61.542969547334	0.16414754603645	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	218	-66	36.878	27.716	32.297	136.82795148333	0.01574804	0.51574804	2.73	3.24574804	F	F	4.878	268.878	126	449.05630994765	61.443454990802	0.19032521436745	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.266	27.716	31.991	139.30036750914	0.00787402	0.55787402	2.73	3.28787402	F	F	4.266	267.266	125	449.42497555537	62.60506426265	0.17543319461229	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	38.39	28.688	33.539	136.755968	0	0.6	2.73	3.33	F	F	6.39	271.39	125	448.46230751323	61.329896975485	0.2303036779278	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	37.724	28.904	33.314	136.79893466952	0.00787402	0.60787402	2.73	3.33787402	F	F	5.724	270.724	125	448.47861555678	61.351396830227	0.21214401678755	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	37.508	29.12	33.314	138.47710781666	0.07480319	0.67480319	2.73	3.40480319	T	F	5.508	270.508	125	449.11417761947	62.1920323962	0.20643885663701	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.014	27.572	31.793	138.8177808891	0.09842525	0.72842525	2.73	3.45842525	T	F	4.014	268.014	125	449.24286773409	62.362897979103	0.16952145186428	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.086	27.698	31.892	139.33390367018	0.09448824	0.78448824	2.73	3.51448824	T	F	4.086	268.086	125	449.43762239384	62.621898384378	0.1711973627085	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.554	28.004	32.279	139.99464796034	0.22834658	0.76834658	2.73	3.49834658	T	F	4.554	263.554	125	449.68657642431	62.953713959013	0.18234707328777	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	34.934	26.6	30.767	142.74728018205	0.22440957	0.85440957	2.73	3.58440957	T	F	2.934	259.934	125	450.71922393955	64.338943343136	0.14564890027191	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	35.564	27.266	31.415	142.32252131802	0.1968505	0.7768505	2.73	3.5068505	T	F	3.564	260.564	125	450.56034674797	64.124884555092	0.15928594579406	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	34.664	26.114	30.389	141.61606804353	0.15354339	0.86354339	2.73	3.59354339	T	F	2.664	259.664	125	450.29572440648	63.769109947261	0.14005141307213	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.284	27.122	31.703	141.33521816208	0.22440957	0.92440957	2.73	3.65440957	T	F	4.284	264.284	125	450.19039204708	63.627757274448	0.17586039280624	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	35.654	27.932	31.793	141.65376865771	0.20472452	0.83472452	2.73	3.56472452	T	F	3.654	263.654	125	450.30985825023	63.788088484862	0.1613000655658	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	34.97	26.384	30.677	141.80469176099	0.21653555	1.24653555	2.7	3.94653555	T	F	2.97	250.97	125	450.3664253032	63.864072119618	0.14640640968498	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-03 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	35.438	26.456	30.947	145.79795256338	0.10236226	1.22236226	2.79	4.01236226	T	F	3.438	256.438	125	451.85527761587	65.879574331352	0.15649389542344	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.386	25.34	29.363	146.05257227679	0.13385834	1.19385834	2.79	3.98385834	T	F	1.386	253.386	125	451.94969917777	66.008416104633	0.11554665398798	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-03 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.296	25.628	29.462	143.62986944336	0.18110246	1.39110246	2.79	4.18110246	T	F	1.296	256.296	125	451.04880082059	64.784080374448	0.11394328009584	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.944	24.818	29.381	143.53684065071	0.14173236	1.33173236	2.79	4.12173236	T	F	1.944	255.944	125	451.0140967906	64.737138542254	0.12584450117652	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 04:00:18	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	32.198	25.016	28.607	144.19485399133	0.12992133	1.28992133	2.71	3.99992133	T	F	0.198	252.198	125	451.25939007257	65.069281863729	0.095643605307872	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	32.45	23.81	28.13	141.94371075064	0.01968505	0.94968505	2.72	3.66968505	T	F	0.45	253.45	125	450.41851142662	63.934074902674	0.099639948745221	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	32.036	23.396	27.716	145.94053316543	0	0.87	2.68	3.55	T	F	0.036000000000001	248.036	125	451.90815882659	65.951717640962	0.093137367056234	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	31.82	22.766	27.293	145.97485764817	0.04724412	0.80724412	2.71	3.51724412	T	F	-0.18	244.82	125	451.92088645162	65.969087068008	0.089871416245525	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.71	23.108	28.409	143.1546849395	0.06299216	0.77299216	2.71	3.48299216	T	F	1.71	245.71	125	450.87144902096	64.544360232814	0.12145089914254	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.116	22.622	27.869	143.47558505844	0.05511814	0.83511814	2.77	3.60511814	T	F	1.116	244.116	125	450.99124115179	64.706232180484	0.11078408303726	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.422	24.332	28.877	144.43729515224	0.10236226	1.08236226	2.85	3.93236226	T	F	1.422	246.422	125	451.34966364252	65.191724584399	0.11619245700888	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-02 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.674	26.096	29.885	144.50343260042	0.06692917	0.62692917	2.77	3.39692917	F	F	1.674	244.674	125	451.37428043658	65.225132910631	0.12078462145275	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.134	24.944	29.039	145.34469955986	0.06299216	0.78299216	2.85	3.63299216	T	F	1.134	240.134	125	451.68704496344	65.650317845293	0.11109715807347	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	34.646	26.69	30.668	144.29754849272	0.08267721	0.66267721	2.79	3.45267721	T	F	2.646	244.646	125	451.29763541249	65.121142430585	0.13968350076589	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.41	27.158	31.784	142.78272743676	0.04330711	0.63330711	2.79	3.42330711	T	F	4.41	256.41	125	450.73247491533	64.356812112731	0.17886915840743	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	34.952	25.88	30.416	143.189437541	0.05118113	0.52118113	2.74	3.26118113	F	F	2.952	251.952	125	450.88442689475	64.561887483056	0.14602732588954	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	35.474	25.898	30.686	144.37391382193	0.03149608	0.64149608	2.7	3.34149608	F	F	3.474	247.474	125	451.32606881292	65.159710964386	0.15728832439257	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	35.24	26.852	31.046	145.49417808356	0.1968505	0.6468505	2.69	3.3368505	F	F	3.24	248.24	125	451.74254789574	65.725910711463	0.15217171386975	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	33.998	25.466	29.732	148.13153400546	0.15354339	0.60354339	2.68	3.28354339	F	F	1.998	242.998	125	452.71836761847	67.06186626777	0.12687391120788	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	34.628	27.428	31.028	149.37105992278	0.16929143	1.09929143	2.79	3.88929143	T	F	2.628	249.628	125	453.17473807006	67.691190955754	0.13931624427668	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-04-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	42.71	28.346	35.528	149.11713909423	0.67322871	1.66322871	2.66	4.32322871	T	F	10.71	253.71	125	453.08136611637	67.562197092178	0.36646475929862	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2023-04-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	42.512	28.04	35.276	148.21731505579	0.7480319	1.7980319	2.65	4.4480319	T	F	10.512	248.512	125	452.74999690819	67.105388933249	0.35964494809157	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2023-04-30 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	41.594	26.762	34.178	146.0153330975	0.24409462	1.20409462	2.66	3.86409462	T	F	9.594	254.594	125	451.93589344853	65.989570020605	0.32863589969867	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-04-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	38.246	31.01	34.628	143.69567386438	0.01574804	0.44574804	2.71	3.15574804	F	F	6.246	248.246	125	451.0733439531	64.817288121601	0.22630532006327	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-29 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.752	29.714	33.233	149.26267153721	0.01574804	0.46574804	2.64	3.10574804	F	F	4.752	237.752	125	453.1348887797	67.636124065973	0.18719751545134	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-29 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	36.716	29.984	33.35	148.68577373421	0.01968505	0.46968505	2.78	3.24968505	F	F	4.716	234.716	125	452.92260601303	67.343148116763	0.18630974527035	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-29 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	45.482	32.108	38.795	147.11787920355	0.02362206	0.60362206	2.92	3.52362206	T	F	13.482	251.482	125	452.34408929178	66.547903086868	0.46543146544052	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	45.5	31.712	38.606	147.50597613339	0.02362206	0.48362206	3.01	3.49362206	T	F	13.5	246.5	125	452.48750269138	66.744610772654	0.46608825218707	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	44.888	32.648	38.768	144.39394053333	0.04724412	0.55724412	3	3.55724412	T	F	12.888	250.888	125	451.33352452359	65.169826100759	0.44382092601142	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	42.872	31.73	37.301	145.95205497139	0.12204731	0.67204731	3.06	3.73204731	T	F	10.872	238.872	125	451.91243127182	65.957548011239	0.3720762409659	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	43.376	32.342	37.859	147.76864576561	0.12204731	0.58204731	2.92	3.50204731	T	F	11.376	243.376	125	452.58448677067	66.877796704624	0.38970365215049	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	43.61	32.072	37.841	149.26178036512	0.15354339	0.53354339	2.81	3.34354339	F	F	11.61	242.61	125	453.13456109233	67.63567133361	0.39796805933607	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	46.472	33.728	40.1	147.82477158295	0.17322844	0.34322844	2.82	3.16322844	F	F	14.472	230.472	125	452.60520141206	66.906260515991	0.50164498411668	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-28 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	46.778	34.178	40.478	147.49779806963	0.17322844	0.35322844	2.6	2.95322844	F	F	14.778	231.778	125	452.48448211061	66.740464771994	0.51284944308964	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-28 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	46.94	34.538	40.739	149.09091459516	0.23228359	0.95228359	2.69	3.64228359	T	F	14.94	236.94	125	453.07171939292	67.548877021491	0.5187776732267	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-04-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	47.39	34.304	40.847	147.60206571391	0.10236226	0.71236226	2.76	3.47236226	T	F	15.39	244.39	125	452.5229888304	66.793327934399	0.53521914710764	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-04-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	47.732	34.304	41.018	151.15263122249	0.09448824	0.71448824	2.72	3.43448824	T	F	15.732	237.732	125	453.82816797483	68.597321712279	0.54767607681016	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-04-27 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	44.51	31.388	37.949	153.30397883133	0.24803163	0.89803163	2.67	3.56803163	T	F	12.51	220.51	125	454.61329032289	69.694026236104	0.43015114849217	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	48.578	32.576	40.577	149.10595690419	0	0.88	2.8	3.68	T	F	16.578	235.578	125	453.07725280866	67.556517331556	0.57826441901282	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-04-27 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	47.876	31.478	39.677	150.08682132093	0	1.01	2.85	3.86	T	F	15.876	231.876	125	453.43761447833	68.055010224398	0.55290780846208	16	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2023-04-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	47.93	32.774	40.352	148.50134540076	0.00787402	0.91787402	2.78	3.69787402	T	F	15.93	234.93	125	452.8546757379	67.249528618102	0.55486738664468	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-04-27 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	40.514	32.81	36.662	151.3616816	0	0.32	2.6	2.92	F	F	8.514	225.514	125	453.90464807605	68.703770818847	0.29362238697894	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	40.514	32.81	36.662	154.09912815314	0	0.32	2.6	2.92	F	F	8.514	224.514	125	454.90239147707	70.100061921397	0.29362238697894	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	37.238	31.334	34.286	153.838764	0	0.2	2.68	2.88	F	F	5.238	221.238	125	454.80779231397	69.967068627149	0.19943648834604	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-26 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	44.042	39.038	41.54	153.83219832855	0	0.01	2.81	2.82	F	F	12.042	220.042	125	454.80540597316	69.96371541256	0.41334368284728	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	42.944	38.894	40.919	154.6859532543	0	0.02	2.87	2.89	F	F	10.944	210.944	125	455.11537575596	70.399955739502	0.37457905887512	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	218	-67	53.204	52.106	52.655	154.31091055525	0	0.1	2.9	3	F	F	21.204	233.204	125	454.97929310913	70.208269003452	0.73307561004219	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L