Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 5, 2023

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DAY 217 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/06/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.96°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.00°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.48°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.125 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 259 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.42 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.18 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 137 in SWE DAY: 124 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.98 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 61.37 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -68 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-06 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	217	-68	33.96002	30.99992	32.47997	136.99611708333	0.42000000000007	0.54000000000007	3.18	3.7200000000001	T	F	1.96002	258.96002	124	447.98483692116	61.372183170409	0.12487123522808	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	217	-67	32.792	28.904	30.848	139.4217098997	0.4724412	0.5924412	3.18	3.7724412	T	F	0.792	257.792	125	449.47072994262	62.665977718467	0.10424413432129	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	217	-67	34.718	30.002	32.36	138.43415514638	0.52362233	0.64362233	3.18	3.82362233	T	F	2.718	259.718	125	449.0979442331	62.170494487883	0.13968919507379	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	217	-67	34.178	29.084	31.631	138.61046703058	0.54724439	0.66724439	3.18	3.84724439	T	F	2.178	259.178	125	449.16456766382	62.25891049747	0.12901572550034	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	217	-67	33.692	28.832	31.262	139.1515241787	0.60629954	0.72629954	3.18	3.90629954	T	F	1.692	258.692	125	449.3688321697	62.530357914814	0.11990364206314	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.124	29.768	31.946	139.56461484286	0.50000027	0.58000027	3.18	3.76000027	T	F	2.124	254.124	124	448.95969764706	62.658887282081	0.12798026016673	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	32.756	28.292	30.524	141.96652336906	0.60236253	0.67236253	3.18	3.85236253	T	F	0.756	251.756	124	449.86559356533	63.865854301827	0.10365004323175	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	33.206	28.526	30.866	141.71865714794	0.54724439	0.61724439	3.18	3.79724439	T	F	1.206	252.206	124	449.77236468943	63.741135546039	0.11125362339345	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	33.098	28.112	30.605	141.32777439239	0.68110273	0.75110273	3.18	3.93110273	T	F	1.098	252.098	124	449.62522429072	63.544532259688	0.10939344291602	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.142	29.174	31.658	140.83786794439	0.61023655	0.74023655	3.18	3.92023655	T	F	2.142	255.142	124	449.44060189348	63.29825613832	0.12832477373672	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.466	29.606	32.036	141.05445211872	0.57874047	0.66874047	3.18	3.84874047	T	F	2.466	255.466	124	449.52225048165	63.407114756863	0.13463594768312	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-04 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	33.872	28.616	31.244	141.24746302673	0.87401622	1.04401622	3.18	4.22401622	T	F	1.872	242.872	124	449.59497450517	63.504149538422	0.12322426997792	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.682	28.742	31.712	145.487780495	0.90944931	1.21944931	3.18	4.39944931	T	F	2.682	247.682	124	451.18370888101	65.641716400602	0.13895953430645	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.268	27.95	31.109	145.54102602055	0.83464612	1.16464612	3.18	4.34464612	T	F	2.268	247.268	124	451.20354998379	65.668627608755	0.13075434383545	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.654	29.21	32.432	143.04183873901	0.92913436	1.30913436	3.18	4.48913436	T	F	3.654	249.654	124	450.26936842716	64.407358387674	0.15957342239102	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.132	28.976	32.054	143.00489164284	0.92126034	1.29126034	3.18	4.47126034	T	F	3.132	249.132	124	450.25551328827	64.38874088938	0.14826697019946	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 04:00:18	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.24	28.292	31.766	143.64420225451	0.9448824	1.1848824	3.18	4.3648824	T	F	3.24	247.24	124	450.49507107806	64.711005104598	0.15056125160019	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.798	27.788	31.793	141.85429100346	0.79133901	1.06133901	3.08	4.14133901	T	F	3.798	247.798	124	449.82338735062	63.809377689398	0.16278897482004	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-02 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.06	27.32	31.19	145.94072996543	0.7086618	0.9586618	3.08	4.0386618	T	F	3.06	243.06	124	451.35240768768	65.870699849596	0.14675047444458	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-05-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.106	26.798	30.452	145.76161754021	0.54330738	0.88330738	3.08	3.96330738	T	F	2.106	240.106	124	451.28572134304	65.780136715764	0.12763638778752	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.16	27.608	30.884	142.89031759534	0.42913409	0.82913409	3.08	3.90913409	T	F	2.16	239.16	124	450.2125398204	64.331012800341	0.12866992876105	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-02 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	33.908	27.194	30.551	143.22410798023	0.44094512	0.96094512	3.08	4.04094512	T	F	1.908	237.908	124	450.33770025728	64.499215409216	0.12389603189965	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-05-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.214	27.878	31.046	144.03323097661	0.5511814	1.2411814	3.08	4.3211814	T	F	2.214	240.214	124	450.64065480604	64.907229521131	0.12970924515148	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-05-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.142	29.156	31.649	144.21739734266	0.24015761	0.70015761	3.12	3.82015761	T	F	2.142	238.142	124	450.70952405178	65.000154516297	0.12832477373672	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	33.332	27.914	30.623	145.05512913928	0.22047256	0.81047256	3.25	4.06047256	T	F	1.332	234.332	124	451.02238867133	65.423110833425	0.11345223268551	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-05-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.358	29.066	31.712	143.99010960526	0.05905515	0.62905515	3.23	3.85905515	T	F	2.358	237.358	124	450.62452485945	64.885474725331	0.13250904242869	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	36.626	30.83	33.728	142.77039054033	0.14566937	0.64566937	3.22	3.86566937	T	F	4.626	246.626	124	450.16754519345	64.270596235851	0.18208710521496	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.582	29.336	32.459	143.06210343718	0.13385834	0.51385834	3.19	3.70385834	T	F	3.582	243.582	124	450.27696712468	64.417570046171	0.15798130214766	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	34.682	28.472	31.577	144.3471881568	0.36614193	0.69614193	3.1	3.79614193	T	F	2.682	238.682	124	450.75804014236	65.065655633621	0.13895953430645	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	37.292	30.722	34.007	144.64527727626	0.393701	0.543701	3.09	3.633701	T	F	5.292	240.292	124	450.86940597674	65.216130242888	0.19860237428803	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.978	29.102	32.54	147.40718325804	0.38582698	0.51582698	3.1	3.61582698	T	F	3.978	235.978	124	451.89725154904	66.612900972893	0.16686710557718	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-30 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	38.228	30.956	34.592	148.60380275294	0.85039416	1.03039416	3.18	4.21039416	T	F	6.228	242.228	124	452.34034056972	67.219494747221	0.22327961621473	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-04-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.492	28.922	32.207	148.35578449798	0.88189024	1.03189024	3.11	4.14189024	T	F	3.492	238.492	124	452.2486139905	67.093697916685	0.1560058300809	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-04-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	35.564	28.868	32.216	147.34622863716	0.94094539	1.09094539	3.1	4.19094539	T	F	3.564	232.564	124	451.87464496192	66.582024751892	0.15758490302003	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-04-30 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	36.662	28.526	32.594	145.11044747154	0.93307137	1.03307137	3.08	4.11307137	T	F	4.662	239.662	124	451.04302478377	65.451055155287	0.18295730409103	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	37.706	32.792	35.249	143.9635936	0.37401595	0.48401595	3.15	3.63401595	T	F	5.706	236.706	124	450.61460542593	64.872097925763	0.20930852182024	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	37.346	31.082	34.214	149.38601642773	0.38582698	0.45582698	3.12	3.57582698	T	F	5.346	228.346	124	452.6292547046	67.616481278975	0.19997983795688	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	37.22	31.874	34.547	148.78043391047	0.39763801	0.53763801	3.18	3.71763801	T	F	5.22	225.22	124	452.40563026542	67.309105974427	0.19677466502023	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-04-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.73	32.504	36.617	148.03329440355	0.47637821	0.68637821	3.3	3.98637821	T	F	8.73	232.73	124	452.12925844539	66.930183623906	0.29709837860265	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.478	32.108	36.293	148.40082573339	0.39763801	0.51763801	3.44	3.95763801	T	F	8.478	228.478	124	452.26527624602	67.116540445451	0.28918518373895	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-29 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.856	32.954	36.905	145.29046293333	0.5118113	0.6418113	3.36	4.0018113	T	F	8.856	232.856	124	451.11015821115	65.542003720428	0.30109171643631	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2023-04-29 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	38.12	32.738	35.429	146.68808697139	0.40551203	0.70551203	3.39	4.09551203	T	F	6.12	223.12	124	451.63033317243	66.248789591314	0.22034634398204	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-04-28 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.1	32.18	36.14	148.57050736561	0.37401595	0.57401595	3.3	3.87401595	T	F	8.1	227.1	124	452.32803002746	67.202604916866	0.27750453611296	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.55	32.612	36.581	150.05773796512	0.34645688	0.40645688	3.27	3.67645688	T	F	8.55	225.55	124	452.87690036185	67.957683244955	0.29143597665376	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.262	29.408	34.835	148.83573318295	0.08267721	0.17267721	3.31	3.48267721	F	F	8.262	211.262	124	452.42606499156	67.337165094093	0.28248225456067	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.028	28.328	34.178	148.48441191383	0.08267721	0.18267721	3.09	3.27267721	F	F	8.028	212.028	124	452.29619251176	67.158934155972	0.27530604451147	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	41.216	28.778	34.997	149.85968020507	0.17716545	0.78716545	3.11	3.89716545	T	F	9.216	217.216	124	452.80392571415	67.857051503123	0.31263210468641	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	43.484	28.742	36.113	148.37435740909	0.07480319	0.69480319	3.17	3.86480319	T	F	11.484	224.484	124	452.25548496086	67.103116965806	0.38920438609633	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	43.628	29.03	36.329	152.26356722249	0.0787402	0.7287402	3.1	3.8287402	T	F	11.628	216.628	124	453.68716470344	69.080026100804	0.3942534372988	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-27 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.136	30.254	35.195	153.54518813149	0.08267721	0.69267721	3.12	3.81267721	T	F	8.136	203.136	124	454.15585992381	69.733446953019	0.27860698653707	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	41.504	35.24	38.372	150.06830890419	0.55905542	1.04905542	3.12	4.16905542	T	F	9.504	213.504	124	452.88079420666	67.963054921779	0.32199917857935	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2023-04-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	40.604	34.772	37.688	150.99711972093	0.67322871	1.20322871	3.15	4.35322871	T	F	8.604	210.604	124	453.22251728885	68.435294703285	0.29312941045872	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2023-04-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	41.288	35.42	38.354	149.43840860076	0.59842552	1.02842552	3.15	4.17842552	T	F	9.288	214.288	124	452.6485854854	67.643084270323	0.31496287192328	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2023-04-27 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	45.122	35.87	40.496	151.5578912	0.08661422	0.33661422	3.07	3.40661422	F	F	13.122	212.122	124	453.42844335281	68.720658684651	0.44753597002214	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	45.698	35.672	40.685	154.29533775314	0.08661422	0.33661422	3.07	3.40661422	F	F	13.698	210.698	124	454.42948637506	70.116351085228	0.46839046914398	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	44.996	36.14	40.568	153.947496	0.01574804	0.29574804	3.07	3.36574804	F	F	12.996	210.996	124	454.30267157287	69.938758714754	0.44299129456986	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	54.806	35.006	44.906	154.21654872855	0.01181103	0.01181103	3.3	3.31181103	F	F	22.806	202.806	124	454.40077159126	70.076118734395	0.77398415504724	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-04-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	52.358	32.954	42.656	155.0577084543	0.01181103	0.04181103	3.34	3.38181103	F	F	20.358	195.358	124	454.70703695968	70.505831169014	0.70144588774596	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-04-26 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	68.342	31.298	49.82	154.64960335525	0	0.11	3.38	3.49	F	F	36.342	207.342	124	454.55852804473	70.297296063861	0.97672718510145	16	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2023-04-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	38.318	33.854	36.086	157.29928957648	0	0.21	3.02	3.23	F	F	6.318	179.318	124	455.52000614894	71.6529733551	0.22574086443045	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-04-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	38.3	34.322	36.311	158.6142344	0	0.16	3.02	3.18	F	F	6.3	178.3	124	455.99475634746	72.327259168467	0.22524739271512	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-04-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	39.182	34.538	36.86	156.71790209883	0	0.23	3.06	3.29	F	F	7.182	197.182	124	455.3095948459	71.355164509718	0.25013325814186	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-25 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	32.468	29.318	30.893	155.4880664	0	0.33	3.02	3.35	F	F	0.468	199.468	124	454.86347698379	70.725842512191	0.098985286390104	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-04-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	32.468	29.318	30.893	155.6202176	0	0.27	3.02	3.29	F	F	0.468	198.468	124	454.91148114504	70.793423684529	0.098985286390104	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-04-25 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	217	-68	36.878	35.474	36.176	155.04897806667	0	0.05	3.02	3.07	F	F	4.878	199.878	124	454.70386159408	70.50136906313	0.18823270762975	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L