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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 4, 2023

[ Wednesday, May 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, May 5, 2023 ]

DAY 216 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.633
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 123
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-05 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023216-6949.1399633.1899841.16497137.286613478260.0799999999999270.219999999999933.193.4099999999999FF17.13996254.13996123447.52507225765 61.4392016168660.632632622285916 3122126DRYL
2023-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2023216-6844.49233.47638.984138.03577840.043307110.183307113.193.37330711FF12.492249.492124448.3802015932261.8925101460690.46312222174892162122125DRYL
2023-05-04 12:00:02FORECAST2023216-6843.05233.76438.408139.07907440.027559070.167559073.193.35755907FF11.052248.052124448.7759003217162.4153368297710.41051290780973162122125DRYL
2023-05-04 08:00:01FORECAST2023216-6844.97834.80839.893138.93865760.094488240.234488243.193.42448824FF12.978249.978124448.7227044325462.3449301884980.48107233059992162122125DRYL
2023-05-04 04:00:13FORECAST2023216-6844.97835.0640.019139.319577050.047244120.187244123.193.37724412FF12.978249.978124448.8669689455562.535956265210.48107233059992162122125DRYL
2023-05-04 00:00:05FORECAST2023216-6944.40234.48439.443139.03461760.161417410.271417413.193.46141741FF12.402238.402123448.1912465031262.3140985692280.4598052578338162122125DRYL
2023-05-03 20:00:02FORECAST2023216-6946.02235.5140.766142.80335760.208661530.408661533.193.59866153TF14.022242.022123449.6175110360564.2068902117030.51971457804747163122126DRYL
2023-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2023216-6946.23834.89840.568142.79696160.232283590.432283593.193.62228359TF14.238242.238123449.6151020428964.2036704611990.52769839782063163122126DRYL
2023-05-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023216-6946.81436.06841.441140.52657840.279527710.479527713.193.66952771TF14.814242.814123448.7575062447863.0623568838960.54892561172309163122126DRYL
2023-05-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023216-6946.61635.61841.117140.65567920.271653690.471653693.193.66165369TF14.616242.616123448.8064044418563.1271696460780.54164142458692163122126DRYL
2023-05-03 04:00:18FORECAST2023216-6945.80635.81640.811141.226540723810.216535550.336535553.193.52653555FF13.806240.806123449.0224317502363.4138847434780.51172284170628163122126DRYL
2023-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2023216-6947.0336.4141.72139.16665120.137795350.267795353.193.45779535FF15.03241.03123448.2414452128162.3802608593150.55685316630414163122126DRYL
2023-05-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023216-6945.93235.61840.775143.4541560.15748040.24748043.193.4374804FF13.932236.932123449.8624236532664.5346343012930.51638546614054163122126DRYL
2023-05-02 16:00:03FORECAST2023216-6945.48234.59240.037143.723181455010.216535550.336535553.193.52653555FF13.482235.482123449.9635468252464.6701924885060.49972740983678163122126DRYL
2023-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2023216-6944.54634.91639.731141.62332560.279527710.399527713.193.58952771TF12.546233.546123449.1723999794463.6132890528210.46511364640043162122125DRYL
2023-05-02 08:00:05FORECAST2023216-6944.16834.48439.326141.77141760.338582860.518582863.193.70858286TF12.168233.168123449.2283338929763.6877377220930.45119480328891162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-02 04:00:12FORECAST2023216-6944.63634.71839.677142.05361911720.43307110.69307113.193.8830711TF12.636234.636123449.3348623481863.8296433920870.46843460540012162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023216-6942.94434.7938.867143.35920948390.322834820.512834823.183.69283482TF10.944232.944123449.8267179915764.486802696010.40661937246571162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023216-6941.88234.08837.985144.21589040.500000270.720000273.233.95000027TF9.882229.882123450.1485706431964.9185769275960.36888007662401162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-01 16:00:04FORECAST2023216-6943.08835.07839.083143.85102320.519685320.679685323.233.90968532TF11.088232.088123450.0115766607264.7346257544890.41181273520268162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2023216-6946.70636.93241.819142.81270640.437008110.597008113.233.82700811TF14.706238.706123449.6210321031164.2115964490070.54495430188206163123129DRYL
2023-05-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023216-6945.24836.08640.667142.84193120.342519870.452519873.233.68251987TF13.248237.248123449.6320385894864.2263087215140.49106357102357162122125DRYL
2023-05-01 04:00:09FORECAST2023216-6943.41235.25839.335143.230162666670.23622060.34622063.193.5362206FF11.412233.412123449.7781747364564.4218011314180.42355308816146162122125DRYL
2023-05-01 00:00:06FORECAST2023216-6946.88638.04842.467143.80066240.055118140.145118143.23.34511814FF14.886231.886123449.992658091364.7092423086650.55157045859166163122126DRYL
2023-04-30 20:00:05FORECAST2023216-6945.87836.78841.333146.24271440.059055150.159055153.183.33905515FF13.878228.878123450.9072600539365.9419016529530.51438743565271163122126DRYL
2023-04-30 16:00:05FORECAST2023216-6947.3938.9343.16145.56237680.082677210.292677213.183.47267721FF15.39233.39123450.6530285465665.5981259473560.57001379844642163122126DRYL
2023-04-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023216-6947.37235.9641.666144.92956640.114173290.194173293.183.37417329FF15.372232.372123450.4161625217765.2786191338320.56935748546167163122126DRYL
2023-04-30 08:00:05FORECAST2023216-6947.42636.03241.729145.17635360.114173290.184173293.183.36417329FF15.426226.426123450.5085822457565.4031932359440.57132584250259163122126DRYL
2023-04-30 04:00:15FORECAST2023216-6950.19837.52643.862144.363442916670.031496080.111496083.183.29149608FF18.198232.198123450.2039350496364.9929900783960.66895846710054163122126DRYL
2023-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023216-6951.49437.05844.276144.40659040.059055150.189055153.183.36905515FF19.494228.494123450.2201208549765.0147525821420.71135075787994164122127DRYL
2023-04-29 20:00:06FORECAST2023216-6948.8336.0542.44149.10963840.055118140.105118143.193.29511814FF16.83219.83123451.9737713957467.3936456191030.6217440672942163122126DRYL
2023-04-29 16:00:04FORECAST2023216-6947.40837.97642.692149.115111654950.047244120.207244123.223.42724412FF15.408217.408123451.9758000579367.3964218909750.57066991805112163122126DRYL
2023-04-29 12:00:04FORECAST2023216-6945.6835.54640.613147.446614642020.098425250.228425253.393.61842525FF13.68220.68123451.3560635763766.5509235724850.50705861448298163122126DRYL
2023-04-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023216-6945.62635.11440.37147.948654686980.062992160.122992163.553.67299216TF13.626216.626123451.5428146283666.8051519578370.50505932728059163122126DRYL
2023-04-29 04:00:13FORECAST2023216-6946.47235.40240.937145.8502605333300.133.473.6FF14.472221.472123450.7606598104265.7435596715270.53633489460676163122126DRYL
2023-04-29 00:00:06FORECAST2023216-6947.62437.61642.62145.858296208380.137795350.297795353.53.79779535TF15.624213.624123450.7636629841465.7476198755140.57852762588193163122126DRYL
2023-04-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023216-6949.42439.21844.321149.036136165610.094488240.204488243.413.61448824FF17.424216.424123451.9465250566367.3563638479120.64251812738191163122126DRYL
2023-04-28 16:00:05FORECAST2023216-6947.6637.38242.521149.228608651260.031496080.061496083.383.44149608FF15.66213.66123452.0178613691667.4539965376390.57983429765254163121123DRYL
2023-04-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023216-6942.72832.95437.841149.176968285770.094488240.224488243.293.51448824FF10.728199.728123451.9987252605167.4277995033970.39886029236192162122125DRYL
2023-04-28 08:00:06FORECAST2023216-6941.73831.53236.635148.822407801610.098425250.098425253.23.29842525FF9.738200.738123451.8672697764767.2479750948760.3638500256319162122125DRYL
2023-04-28 04:00:13FORECAST2023216-6941.7231.89236.806149.852075435940.539370370.609370373.223.82937037TF9.72204.72123452.2486983200767.7704060564670.36322289446405162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-28 00:00:04FORECAST2023216-6942.76432.21637.49148.614757399390.535433360.615433363.283.89543336TF10.764209.764123451.7902271227567.1426949992640.4001507900729162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-27 20:00:06FORECAST2023216-6941.43232.50436.968152.508038785360.539370370.649370373.213.85937037TF9.432202.432123453.2279765072769.1209098197780.35323964625522162123127.5DRYL
2023-04-27 16:00:06FORECAST2023216-6943.62834.0738.849153.495193890220.566929440.606929443.233.83692944TF11.628191.628123453.5902689814669.6239262840250.43141854516676162113126DRYL
2023-04-27 12:00:06FORECAST2023216-6952.41237.2244.816150.870662504190.322834820.492834823.233.72283482TF20.412201.412123452.6250419421468.2878399437970.73974188350061641231210.5DRYL
2023-04-27 08:00:04FORECAST2023216-6951.40436.8644.132151.118060148940.342519870.542519873.253.79251987TF19.404199.404123452.7163025989668.4136094465580.70849075529971641231210.5DRYL
2023-04-27 04:00:11FORECAST2023216-6952.77239.4746.121150.291044600760.311023790.431023793.263.69102379TF20.772201.772123452.4110063508667.9933227333510.75046983983339164122127DRYL
2023-04-27 00:00:05FORECAST2023216-6948.66837.81443.241152.67620720.228346580.248346583.183.42834658FF16.668195.668123453.2897596437469.2065612650060.61601386074536163112125DRYL
2023-04-26 20:00:04FORECAST2023216-6949.137.68843.394155.21626560.228346580.248346583.183.42834658FF17.1194.1123454.219745278870.5022926239590.63123463159567163112125DRYL
2023-04-26 16:00:05FORECAST2023216-6951.90837.83244.87155.05764480.181102460.281102463.183.46110246FF19.908194.908123454.1618452962870.4212660896630.72433376595633164112126DRYL
2023-04-26 12:00:08FORECAST2023216-6943.14235.07839.11155.72167512855003.413.41FF11.142177.142123454.4040750570170.7605637531180.41376428737657162111122DRYL
2023-04-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023216-6943.08833.47638.282156.30758525430.007874020.027874023.453.47787402FF11.088172.088123454.6174685474771.0601587230790.41181273520268162111122DRYL
2023-04-26 04:00:16FORECAST2023216-6947.55235.31241.432156.469904955250.102362260.112362263.493.60236226FF15.552167.552123454.6765306184671.1431935312520.57591170077003163112125DRYL
2023-04-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023216-6947.60634.73641.171157.467455176480.15748040.20748043.133.3374804FF15.606169.606123455.0389676701871.6538282451550.57787396467056163112125DRYL
2023-04-25 20:00:05FORECAST2023216-6947.76835.70841.738158.79578240.15748040.15748043.133.2874804FF15.768168.768123455.5201615953172.3346804595020.58374898191256163112125DRYL
2023-04-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023216-6949.89239.70444.798156.948256498830.137795350.267795353.133.39779535FF17.892186.892123454.8504433098371.3879840451990.65859678869632163112125DRYL
2023-04-25 12:00:04FORECAST2023216-6950.59432.82841.711155.49062480.204724520.334724523.133.46472452FF18.594195.594123454.3198371984570.6424753450210.68217713083875163112125DRYL
2023-04-25 08:00:04FORECAST2023216-6949.56832.82841.198155.6227760.204724520.274724523.133.40472452FF17.568194.568123454.368023809470.7100131908530.64749399704079163112125DRYL
2023-04-25 04:00:19FORECAST2023216-6951.3537.56244.456155.117464466670.019685050.049685053.133.17968505FF19.35192.35123454.1836834931670.451821385590.70676844095715164111123DRYL
2023-04-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023216-6939.23630.61434.925161.2520910155700.533.053.58TF7.236164.236123456.4057074642273.5963746800450.28081478808781162113126DRYL
2023-04-24 20:00:05FORECAST2023216-6943.46633.18838.327156.2517848781200.553.123.67TF11.466177.466123454.597159251671.0316175335860.42551672672503162113126DRYL
2023-04-24 16:00:05FORECAST2023216-6942.58430.88436.734156.6360400.543.13.64TF10.584171.584123454.7369557396271.2281959887090.39370947983789162113126DRYL
2023-04-24 12:00:06FORECAST2023216-6926.09622.40624.251161.3961154875500.263.13.36FF-5.904148.096123456.4574597451473.6704608881820.03576797380657161112123DRYL
2023-04-24 08:00:08FORECAST2023216-6926.09622.40624.251160.6348407064300.263.093.35FF-5.904152.096123456.1836964881973.2789954182510.03576797380657161112123DRYL
2023-04-24 04:00:15FORECAST2023216-6936.1435.65435.897159.7960920424300.113.093.2FF4.14167.14123455.8814591810572.8480756117330.19273778099025161112123DRYL