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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 31, 2023

[ Tuesday, May 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 1, 2023 ]

DAY 243 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/01/2023 04:00:15 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.078
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 435

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.63 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.63 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 83 in
SWE DAY: 150
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.32 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -42

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-01 04:00:15OBSERVATION2023243-4235.6500430.9599633.30583.495567916667000.630.63FF3.65004434.65004150442.31986297656 36.931748160050.07794495551397116 1131122.5DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2023243-4140.38828.434.39476.602956000.630.63FF8.388439.388151440.1726067389933.7185228264320.16131499546169161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:01FORECAST2023243-4140.6428.88634.76376.6100408000.630.63FF8.64439.64151440.1754450797233.7218588067160.16696797193471161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:02FORECAST2023243-4140.56828.05834.31376.60394000.630.63FF8.568439.568151440.1730009560333.7189861548560.1653399831984161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:11FORECAST2023243-4141.57627.80634.69176.181243454545000.630.63FF9.576440.576151440.0035665453933.5200188238630.18906416115512161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2023243-4242.2628.34635.30375.5448608000.630.63FF10.26438.26150439.1460140853933.1752245049550.20629573893601161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2023243-4241.86428.6735.26777.5553304000.630.63FF9.864438.864150439.9546396263834.1208274372370.19620901078708161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:01FORECAST2023243-4242.67429.49836.08677.4595872000.630.63FF10.674439.674150439.916224582234.075729158720.21716211150777161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2023243-4243.71828.70636.21276.4512824000.630.63FF11.718440.718150439.5110946860833.6011868177790.24598291549419161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2023243-4243.82629.06636.44676.3462896000.630.63FF11.826440.826150439.4688496289133.5518160639470.24907704547479162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:13FORECAST2023243-4243.41228.65236.03276.303422690909000.630.63FF11.412440.412150439.451598397333.5316610647050.23732919153261161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2023243-4244.65429.87637.26575.4576000.630.63FF12.654439.654150439.1108235661533.1342488803250.27346899256033162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2023243-4244.34829.98437.16679.1207568000.630.63FF12.348439.348150440.5814123846934.859134779890.26431875497643162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2023243-4243.9729.78636.87879.2412968000.630.63FF11.97437.97150440.6295714955234.9160586537330.25323449602864162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:04FORECAST2023243-4244.97829.87637.42777.4582888000.630.63FF12.978439.978150439.9157035609634.075117614080.28332516489232162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023243-4244.09629.71436.90577.634228000.630.63FF12.096437.096150439.986288690134.1579958530410.25690193377774162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:13FORECAST2023243-4243.93429.53436.73477.265959219048000.630.63FF11.934438.934150439.8385066705333.9845441193720.25219172883452162131123DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023243-4244.18629.37236.77976.975696000.630.63FF12.186435.186150439.7219299294533.8479016027830.25953832882921162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 20:00:03FORECAST2023243-4245.33829.53437.43680.2628664000.630.63FF13.338438.338150441.0371257380635.3989039005540.29447211119014162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2023243-4245.57228.79637.18480.3212176000.630.63FF13.572438.572150441.0603729831135.4265061931140.30182435746204162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2023243-4246.1331.17238.65178.1808208000.630.63FF14.13441.13150440.2053753948334.415617568940.3196801416526162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:04FORECAST2023243-4245.4131.6438.52578.3120864000.630.63FF13.41437.41150440.2579443246834.4775181742410.29672553610303162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:13FORECAST2023243-4245.73430.88438.30978.15163912381000.630.63FF13.734441.734150440.1936864062134.4018581245980.30696215188065162131123DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:05FORECAST2023243-4244.0629.89436.97778.701672000.650.65FF12.06437.06150440.4138614583734.661307268750.25585128568692162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 20:00:03FORECAST2023243-4245.51832.46838.99380.6220072000.650.65FF13.518438.518150441.180153571635.5688295177460.30012038040498162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 16:00:04FORECAST2023243-4244.61830.77637.69781.1197144000.650.65FF12.618436.618150441.3781499078135.8044694629220.27238441734537162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:04FORECAST2023243-4243.4328.65236.04180.2265376000.650.65FF11.43431.43150441.0226505246635.3817202547680.23783357031776161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:03FORECAST2023243-4244.22228.43636.32980.1726144000.650.65FF12.222433.222150441.0011623582535.35621613970.26059677977517162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:14FORECAST2023243-4244.04228.74236.39279.609376625000.650.65FF12.042434.042150440.776538485835.089945459780.25532680268431162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:05FORECAST2023243-4244.99629.58837.29277.3288936000.70.7FF12.996428.996150439.8637713068334.0141787698810.28387768048996162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 20:00:06FORECAST2023243-4245.8630.79438.32780.6604424000.720.72FF13.86430.86150441.1954526637435.5870203967260.3109846375169162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 16:00:05FORECAST2023243-4246.6732.1839.42580.4435688000.720.72FF14.67433.67150441.1091067822635.4843907797450.3373675531511162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:05FORECAST2023243-4247.5731.60439.58778.9579256000.730.73FF15.57432.57150440.5163333365734.7822558731740.3676435190072162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023243-4247.5732.03639.80378.6602656000.660.66FF15.57435.57150440.3972974148734.6417683841760.3676435190072162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:09FORECAST2023243-4248.68632.41440.5578.335991000.670.67FF16.686438.686150440.2675156946334.4887921470470.40633949751831162131123DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2023243-4250.23435.20442.71976.2266368000.650.65FF18.234437.234150439.4206922152233.4955615078940.4614840858098162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:06FORECAST2023243-4250.3635.16842.76479.9107528000.670.67FF18.36438.36150440.8967697619735.2323927787680.46602028451192162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023243-4247.35433.840.57780.8952448000.690.69FF15.354426.354150441.2888830937835.698172225390.36029339493158162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:06FORECAST2023243-4250.75633.60242.17978.3763032000.810.81FF18.756436.756150440.2836553293934.5078052641010.48030293943259162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023243-4252.37634.19643.28678.1134768000.760.76FF20.376438.376150440.178398829234.3838651448060.53879834765136163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:18FORECAST2023243-4248.16432.4540.30779.366881828571000.70.7FF16.164427.164150440.6797305556734.9753760992580.38810026084607162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023243-4259.12634.35846.74278.8773168000.70.7FF27.126432.126150440.4841063058834.7442043984540.76087056615608164131124DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:05FORECAST2023243-4256.19234.75445.47380.9717216000.750.75FF24.192431.192150441.3193020165735.7343836595920.67119159671383163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023243-4259.4534.95247.20180.4910376000.70.7FF27.45435.45150441.1280100385535.5068512424260.76988634038247164131124DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:06FORECAST2023243-4264.8537.16651.00877.7480392000.750.75FF32.85448.85150440.0319318589234.2116198874190.89031037632717165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:05FORECAST2023243-4265.2137.3151.2678.3328304000.820.82FF33.21444.21150440.2662502279434.487301509950.89631922408411165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:12FORECAST2023243-4264.29237.65250.97278.839368434783000.690.69FF32.292441.292150440.4689324380134.7262924485550.88051097514526165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:03FORECAST2023243-4263.87840.62252.2577.2413776000.630.63FF31.878453.878150439.8286374275933.9729698628380.87285327677735165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023243-4264.90440.58652.74578.8937696000.720.72FF32.904455.904150440.4906845962634.7519705814830.89122725423215165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:08FORECAST2023243-4263.0539.75851.40479.511328000.750.75FF31.05449.05150440.7374030348235.043616214570.85653324411414165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:07FORECAST2023243-4252.73635.27644.00680.4794217201650.062992160.062992160.90.96299216FF20.736425.736150441.1233845170435.5013548931730.55172830135094163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023243-4253.11435.54644.3381.0005018818960.066929170.066929170.981.04692917FF21.114424.114150441.3307479472435.7480120796390.56524561674971163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:15FORECAST2023243-4252.05235.70843.8880.944508849451001.021.02FF20.052424.052150441.3084787241835.7214980614270.52712581904342163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:08FORECAST2023243-4247.06630.84838.95781.677269600.030.480.51FF15.066423.066150441.5996577336236.0686542999760.35057337517153162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:03FORECAST2023243-4249.3733.58441.47781.3137800.020.520.54FF17.37428.37150441.455284682535.896397898510.4305441433134162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:09FORECAST2023243-4250.84633.69242.26981.765239200.030.510.54FF18.846424.846150441.6345780157436.1103569104480.48355319045793162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:07FORECAST2023243-4253.27638.60645.94178.01895440.051181130.171181130.660.83118113FF21.276450.276150440.1405273935134.3393037363060.57101643212135163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:06FORECAST2023243-4253.27637.29245.28478.1442147484550.055118140.235118140.650.88511814FF21.276446.276150440.1907123661634.3983575574170.57101643212135163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:10FORECAST2023243-4255.36435.83445.59977.7395830.051181130.231181130.620.85118113FF23.364458.364150440.0285410140534.2076352865310.6436278103353163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023243-4252.37642.22447.375.59841280.007874020.187874020.951.13787402FF20.376476.376150439.1676066641933.2003740169880.53879834765136163132127DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:08FORECAST2023243-4252.41243.1647.78677.2624160.007874020.217874021.011.22787402FF20.412476.412150439.8370841460333.9828757675180.5400934197956163132127DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:07FORECAST2023243-4242.74639.240.97377.87868337925600.060.991.05FF10.746466.746150440.0843095102934.273186600530.21908504552975161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023243-4238.58835.36636.97785.88611037755400.370.661.03FF6.588401.588150443.2616798832238.070021564590.12459167591161132125DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023243-4238.58835.36636.97786.94696074023100.310.620.93FF6.588395.588150443.6778012191838.5764363639160.12459167591161122124DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:20FORECAST2023243-4235.72634.03434.8889.18974209496600.340.891.23FF3.726385.726150444.5538557023939.6496437374190.078955558937837161122124DRYL