Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 30, 2023

[ Monday, May 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 31, 2023 ]

DAY 242 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/31/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.61°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.13°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.455 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 462 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.63 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.63 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 77 in SWE DAY: 149 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.98 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 33.64 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -43 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-31 04:00:10	OBSERVATION	2023	242	-43	49.60994	34.66004	42.13499	76.631915454545	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	17.60994	461.60994	149	438.98100185837	33.639955020562	0.45481623417654	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-31 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	242	-42	47.444	33.026	40.235	76.0353848	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	15.444	459.444	150	439.34368742222	33.4056663326	0.38232819754033	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-30 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	242	-42	47.732	33.494	40.613	77.0265288	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	15.732	459.732	150	439.74235182191	33.87182692719	0.39178987593923	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-30 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	242	-42	48.452	33.836	41.144	76.9503672	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	16.452	460.452	150	439.71175319192	33.835980870274	0.41571405351702	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-30 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	242	-42	48.146	33.332	40.739	76.881817890909	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	16.146	460.146	150	439.68420780859	33.803721194248	0.40550252630278	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.506	33.944	41.225	76.1658832	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	16.506	457.506	149	438.79277457332	33.421039217155	0.41752222042432	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.388	34.376	41.882	79.8178224	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	17.388	458.388	149	440.26181745413	35.140739555055	0.44727549885935	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.308	34.79	41.549	79.8724344	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	16.308	457.308	149	440.28368263611	35.166529558743	0.4109010897154	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.082	34.916	41.999	78.1771008	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	17.082	458.082	149	439.6035001177	34.366927140734	0.4369104307317	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	47.75	34.358	41.054	78.2939016	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	15.75	455.75	149	439.65045561298	34.421949510158	0.39238342550188	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-29 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.866	34.7	41.783	77.914907219048	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	16.866	457.866	149	439.49804401777	34.243449322597	0.42961946865015	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-29 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	47.84	34.07	40.955	77.6252344	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	15.84	453.84	149	439.38145388885	34.107088349135	0.39535490281397	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.064	34.808	41.936	81.005688	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	17.064	456.064	149	440.73672321082	35.702181490558	0.43630199601252	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.028	34.304	41.666	81.0318624	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	17.028	456.028	149	440.74717154585	35.714564157893	0.43508557999547	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.658	35.924	42.791	79.0196808	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	17.658	457.658	149	439.94191661772	34.764069821672	0.45645138508758	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.226	35.978	42.602	79.1574408	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	17.226	455.226	149	439.99717812501	34.829050579597	0.44178316264029	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-28 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	50.018	36.158	43.088	78.98872792381	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	18.018	459.018	149	439.92949741675	34.74947137711	0.46872127165567	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-28 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.406	34.394	41.9	79.4109392	0	0	0.65	0.65	F	F	17.406	456.406	149	440.0988168059	34.948660383365	0.44788640278049	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	51.26	36.752	44.006	81.4995384	0	0	0.65	0.65	F	F	19.26	456.26	149	440.93374209036	35.935896445349	0.51120762111118	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-27 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	50.216	34.97	42.593	81.8662752	0	0	0.65	0.65	F	F	18.216	455.216	149	441.07988988059	36.10956765015	0.47548315000534	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.758	34.16	41.459	80.8442928	0	0	0.65	0.65	F	F	16.758	450.758	149	440.6722818909	35.625838986032	0.42598280800711	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.812	34.682	41.747	80.851476	0	0	0.65	0.65	F	F	16.812	451.812	149	440.67515053601	35.629236357359	0.42780037174602	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-27 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.514	34.034	41.774	80.243171025	0	0	0.65	0.65	F	F	17.514	452.514	149	440.43203549487	35.341663149104	0.45155437223432	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-27 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.182	34.214	41.198	78.0739784	0	0	0.7	0.7	F	F	16.182	447.182	149	439.56203194299	34.318356587377	0.40670069360502	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-26 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.046	35.168	42.107	81.5204584	0	0	0.72	0.72	F	F	17.046	448.046	149	440.94208255342	35.945800697606	0.43569371196269	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-26 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	50.054	36.086	43.07	81.4197952	0	0	0.72	0.72	F	F	18.054	450.054	149	440.90194571142	35.898146123105	0.46995009066904	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.082	34.682	41.882	79.9729216	0	0	0.73	0.73	F	F	17.082	448.082	149	440.32390709541	35.213989300747	0.4369104307317	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.028	34.934	41.981	79.6904152	0	0	0.66	0.66	F	F	17.028	451.028	149	440.21079523061	35.08058104745	0.43508557999547	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-26 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	50.27	35.276	42.773	79.4348238	0	0	0.67	0.67	F	F	18.27	453.27	149	440.10838982159	34.95993239838	0.47732860730468	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	51.62	35.762	43.691	77.612404	0	0	0.65	0.65	F	F	19.62	449.62	149	439.37628780953	34.101049957494	0.52352007400405	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-25 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	51.512	35.87	43.691	81.3050808	0	0	0.67	0.67	F	F	19.512	450.512	149	440.85619380477	35.843848458477	0.5198281592606	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.37	34.394	41.882	81.9741024	0	0	0.69	0.69	F	F	17.37	442.37	149	441.1228340619	36.160648370368	0.44666471999444	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-25 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	50.684	34.844	42.764	79.7494752	0	0	0.81	0.81	F	F	18.684	448.684	149	440.23444879247	35.10846625616	0.49149034909173	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	51.062	35.114	43.088	79.578456	0	0	0.76	0.76	F	F	19.062	449.062	149	440.16594577053	35.027726348198	0.50443046366033	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-25 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	51.278	33.71	42.494	80.418187428571	0	0	0.7	0.7	F	F	19.278	442.278	149	440.50202100912	35.424374088176	0.51182359531031	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.316	34.646	41.981	80.6019736	0	0	0.7	0.7	F	F	17.316	436.316	149	440.57547989461	35.511253199273	0.44483314804372	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-24 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.766	34.7	42.233	82.7632904	0	0	0.75	0.75	F	F	17.766	437.766	149	441.43678500495	36.534760830607	0.46012853150396	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	49.64	35.438	42.539	82.3733312	0	0	0.7	0.7	F	F	17.64	438.64	149	441.28173198172	36.34984626104	0.45583888112945	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-24 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	52.772	38.066	45.419	80.5198688	0	0	0.75	0.75	F	F	20.772	446.772	149	440.54266704366	35.472437751157	0.56271197597153	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-24 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	51.746	36.59	44.168	81.1552376	0	0	0.82	0.82	F	F	19.746	441.746	149	440.79641128482	35.772937491047	0.52782473536048	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	53.402	36.68	45.041	81.541826034783	0	0	0.69	0.69	F	F	21.402	440.402	149	440.95060102368	35.955917198605	0.58391211770241	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	57.794	33.908	45.851	79.9318304	0	0	0.63	0.63	F	F	25.794	452.794	149	440.3074597606	35.194581197439	0.72200972622508	16	4	1	3	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-23 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	56.75	31.874	44.312	81.6289944	0	0	0.72	0.72	F	F	24.75	453.75	149	440.98534697425	35.997190418643	0.69118944751756	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-23 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	54.968	31.82	43.394	82.1103672	0	0	0.75	0.75	F	F	22.968	448.968	149	441.17708722377	36.22521263217	0.63544074943643	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-23 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	55.058	35.78	45.419	82.027450520165	0	0.14	0.76	0.9	F	F	23.058	436.058	149	441.14407659104	36.185923914835	0.63833871911479	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	55.148	35.924	45.536	82.600584281896	0	0.18	0.8	0.98	F	F	23.148	434.148	149	441.3721095348	36.457594133308	0.6412287794999	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-23 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	54.914	36.158	45.536	82.507789649451	0	0.19	0.83	1.02	F	F	22.914	434.914	149	441.33521181853	36.413592821619	0.63369823412444	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-23 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	46.58	33.656	40.118	82.6228936	0.02755907	0.05755907	0.45	0.50755907	F	F	14.58	438.58	149	441.38097904097	36.468173668366	0.35438204638897	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.182	35.294	41.738	82.56838	0.01574804	0.02574804	0.51	0.53574804	F	F	16.182	442.182	149	441.35930520561	36.442322828753	0.40670069360502	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-22 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	50.756	35.366	43.061	83.149924	0.03149608	0.05149608	0.49	0.54149608	F	F	18.756	436.756	149	441.59036417909	36.718205220624	0.49395485905228	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-22 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	52.898	42.008	47.453	79.722652	0.09842525	0.11842525	0.66	0.77842525	F	F	20.898	459.898	149	440.22370652621	35.095801357539	0.5669684733546	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	53.366	41.324	47.345	79.619132348455	0.12992133	0.17992133	0.65	0.82992133	F	F	21.366	456.366	149	440.18224168388	35.046928158068	0.58270662532086	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-22 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	57.434	40.856	49.145	79.311523	0.12992133	0.17992133	0.62	0.79992133	F	F	25.434	466.434	149	440.05896426965	34.901746666029	0.71155253917167	16	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-22 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	58.082	42.242	50.162	76.1874352	0.14173236	0.72173236	0.41	1.13173236	F	F	26.082	487.082	149	438.80148419539	33.4311596428	0.73024021279049	16	4	1	3	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2023-05-21 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	58.73	43.196	50.963	77.8858784	0.16929143	0.75929143	0.46	1.21929143	F	F	26.73	486.73	149	439.48636410401	34.229781513063	0.74830192112249	16	4	1	3	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2023-05-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	56.84	40.244	48.542	78.267363379256	0	0.63	0.42	1.05	F	F	24.84	486.84	149	439.63978811365	34.40944705227	0.69390450376864	16	3	1	3	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2023-05-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	53.006	31.316	42.161	86.081729577554	0.02362206	0.68362206	0.35	1.03362206	F	F	21.006	426.006	149	442.75004530507	38.112689670401	0.57061074603456	16	3	1	3	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2023-05-21 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	50.396	29.21	39.803	87.142579940231	0.00787402	0.57787402	0.35	0.92787402	F	F	18.396	420.396	149	443.16754341532	38.618763078985	0.48163649722592	16	2	1	3	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-05-21 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	48.758	29.876	39.317	89.236974094966	0.00787402	0.72787402	0.5	1.22787402	F	F	16.758	412.758	149	443.98849755094	39.620190054416	0.42598280800711	16	2	1	3	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-05-21 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	37.76	29.462	33.611	97.392472522642	0.00787402	0.41787402	0.43	0.84787402	F	F	5.76	403.76	149	447.14397346764	43.548457149612	0.12909410479282	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-20 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	35.168	27.626	31.397	103.47625324564	0.00787402	0.40787402	0.43	0.83787402	F	F	3.168	400.168	149	449.45566955953	46.507988686033	0.08795380754076	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-20 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	35.204	29.156	32.18	103.62400818152	0.00787402	0.34787402	0.48	0.82787402	F	F	3.204	393.204	149	449.51136989839	46.580169872037	0.088449004357614	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-20 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	33.8	29.318	31.559	97.2182336	0	0.01	0.37	0.38	F	F	1.8	418.8	149	447.0772390797	43.464059466093	0.070628100005644	16	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-20 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	33.8	29.318	31.559	99.0099992	0	0	0.36	0.36	F	F	1.8	398.8	149	447.76208664619	44.33292384063	0.070628100005644	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-20 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	242	-43	45.788	44.618	45.203	97.82967518907	0	0.1	0.5	0.6	F	F	13.788	420.788	149	447.3112943254	43.760318632256	0.32943155505432	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L