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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 3, 2023

[ Tuesday, May 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 4, 2023 ]

DAY 215 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/04/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.80°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.997
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 238

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 122
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-04 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023215-7069.1100640.4799854.79502140.378656250.0399999999999640.149999999999963.743.89TF37.11006238.11006122448.13342652859 62.9083682367910.9968277219551916 51221116DRYL
2023-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023215-6958.42437.9448.182140.08356160.011811030.121811033.743.86181103TF26.424227.424123448.5895873050162.840027086360.93991281789489165122128DRYL
2023-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2023215-6960.02639.32649.676141.86383440.098425250.208425253.743.94842525TF28.026229.026123449.2632287866963.7342042906040.95817339782821165122128DRYL
2023-05-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023215-6959.6338.69649.163141.93369840.098425250.208425253.743.94842525TF27.63228.63123449.2896027193663.7693349666260.95413990042877165122128DRYL
2023-05-03 04:00:17FORECAST2023215-6959.07238.4848.776142.446602323810.023622060.133622063.743.87362206TF27.072228.072123449.483082715464.0273379348410.94793407424564165122128DRYL
2023-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2023215-7062.29440.08251.188140.52368560.133858340.143858343.743.88385834TF30.294227.294122448.1885865621462.9811120275670.97609665397084165122128DRYL
2023-05-02 20:00:02FORECAST2023215-7060.94439.99250.468144.71279040.086614220.096614223.743.83661422TF28.944223.944122449.7731199103665.0879232291420.96642758978315165122128DRYL
2023-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2023215-7060.38639.90250.144144.76671360.11811030.12811033.743.8681103TF28.386223.386122449.793406708565.1151132881380.96158701087839165122128DRYL
2023-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2023215-7058.62240.71249.667142.76417520.122047310.132047313.743.87204731TF26.622221.622122449.0381511363964.106561280320.94246000242854165122128DRYL
2023-05-02 08:00:05FORECAST2023215-7059.32440.53249.928142.8829440.181102460.191102463.743.93110246TF27.324222.324122449.08305192764.1663085598340.95081443984127165122128DRYL
2023-05-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023215-7059.41440.20849.811143.065578139130.263779670.273779673.744.01377967TF27.414223.414122449.1520707173864.2582006695690.95181185872423165122128WETL
2023-05-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023215-7058.98240.38849.685144.34793268390.137795350.187795353.743.92779535TF26.982222.982122449.6357813844264.9039955035510.94687358245972165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2023215-7056.22839.39847.813145.07846480.090551230.270551233.744.01055123TF24.228221.228122449.910638204465.2723446878830.90545506508667165122128WETL
2023-05-01 16:00:03FORECAST2023215-7057.52439.59648.56144.83403920.051181130.211181133.743.95118113TF25.524221.524122449.8187318108165.1490638359810.9272114838863165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2023215-7059.19840.67649.937144.0544160.059055150.209055153.743.94905515TF27.198225.198122449.5252043948364.7560907963780.94939052346804165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 08:00:04FORECAST2023215-7058.85640.56849.712144.03089840.03937010.15937013.743.8993701TF26.856224.856122449.5163410056164.7442424405190.94536030239624165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 04:00:09FORECAST2023215-7058.31639.97449.145144.264149866670.086614220.116614223.743.85661422TF26.316223.316122449.6042261623564.8617714637710.93848682188591165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 00:00:06FORECAST2023215-7058.96440.76649.865145.17885280.086614220.086614223.763.84661422TF26.964217.964122449.9483685382365.3229879636120.94665944977378165121124DRYL
2023-04-30 20:00:04FORECAST2023215-7057.4740.08248.776147.48029120.070866180.100866183.743.84086618TF25.47216.47122450.8107195575366.4856961964270.92638875690889165122128DRYL
2023-04-30 16:00:05FORECAST2023215-7059.21641.10850.162147.0563840.102362260.212362263.743.95236226TF27.216219.216122450.6522596632866.2712917475110.94959592123033165122128DRYL
2023-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2023215-7057.79440.24449.019146.2298240.035433090.075433093.743.81543309TF25.794217.794122450.3427938266865.8535474809440.93122023025194165121124DRYL
2023-04-30 08:00:04FORECAST2023215-7056.82240.98248.902146.47985840.035433090.065433093.743.80543309TF24.822211.822122450.4364757942965.9798711925430.91595607566537165121124DRYL
2023-04-30 04:00:15FORECAST2023215-7058.7340.6449.685145.864731716670.074803190.084803193.743.82480319TF26.73214.73122450.2058954880265.6691621626220.94381325673005165121124DRYL
2023-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023215-7058.69441.59450.144146.0409160.051181130.131181133.743.87118113TF26.694209.694122450.2719750064565.7581316790710.94336497891405165122128DRYL
2023-04-29 20:00:06FORECAST2023215-7057.50640.33448.92150.56497440.011811030.051811033.753.80181103TF25.506203.506122451.9586750485568.0491463385440.92693802479092165121124DRYL
2023-04-29 16:00:04FORECAST2023215-7056.94840.26248.605150.525675654950.090551230.180551233.763.94055123TF24.948202.948122451.9441066317368.0291920090150.91806682317856165122128DRYL
2023-04-29 12:00:04FORECAST2023215-7055.54438.7547.147148.677598642020.114173290.304173293.784.08417329TF23.544207.544122451.2573622260867.0918609853060.89220463243483165122128WETL
2023-04-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023215-7054.93238.08446.508149.168125886980.055118140.345118143.824.16511814TF22.932203.932122451.4399562630467.3404522262570.87926231501233165122128WETL
2023-04-29 04:00:12FORECAST2023215-7054.93241.07248.002147.141662133330.125984320.315984323.844.15598432TF22.932207.932122450.684151020866.314415078350.87926231501233165122128WETL
2023-04-29 00:00:06FORECAST2023215-7054.78839.57847.183147.266892208380.15748040.35748043.864.2174804TF22.788198.788122450.7309706377266.3777492678820.87606480539932165112127WETL
2023-04-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023215-7056.3941.30648.848150.704409765610.114173290.264173293.824.08417329TF24.39200.39122452.0103533269668.1199535060820.90841015195521165122128WETL
2023-04-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023215-7055.43641.25248.344150.661903051260.027559070.167559073.83.96755907TF23.436199.436122451.9946012011968.0983667858680.88999618177791165122128DRYL
2023-04-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023215-7048.63237.20242.917149.7049591180100.23.783.98TF16.632189.632122451.6395267003267.6126768807480.68507056292879163112125DRYL
2023-04-28 08:00:06FORECAST2023215-7049.1937.74243.466149.1995569732100.013.753.76TF17.19192.19122451.451648427967.3563859402670.7064212320672164111123DRYL
2023-04-28 04:00:13FORECAST2023215-7049.71238.49844.105149.106804607090.066929170.086929173.763.84692917TF17.712195.712122451.4171424483667.309367655340.72576624740609164111123DRYL
2023-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2023215-7055.65240.35248.002149.028402657420.082677210.132677213.793.92267721TF23.652199.652122451.387968807967.269627970220.89438106748009165122128DRYL
2023-04-27 20:00:06FORECAST2023215-7054.87840.78447.831153.020842339860.114173290.144173293.743.88417329TF22.878193.878122452.8662096062569.2979688612080.87807010107406165112127DRYL
2023-04-27 16:00:06FORECAST2023215-7054.1440.83847.489154.303773268670.03937010.07937013.753.8293701TF22.14181.14122453.3380539741469.9517722944860.86094722156797165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-27 12:00:06FORECAST2023215-7052.68239.88446.283152.539821704190.173228440.203228443.763.96322844TF20.682181.682122452.6889001256569.0530841126320.82251589172656164112126DRYL
2023-04-27 08:00:04FORECAST2023215-7051.74640.31646.031152.680750548940.185039470.225039473.784.00503947TF19.746180.746122452.7408704821469.1248159093960.79462489801604164112126WETL
2023-04-27 04:00:11FORECAST2023215-7052.1641.75646.958152.063917400760.11811030.15811033.783.9381103TF20.16182.16122452.5132632605568.8109394872010.80726819302664164112126DRYL
2023-04-27 00:00:05FORECAST2023215-7058.31641.64849.982154.10113760.023622060.023622063.743.76362206TF26.316180.316122453.263629570169.8484409494580.93848682188591165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-26 20:00:04FORECAST2023215-7058.29841.32449.811156.66392640.023622060.023622063.743.76362206TF26.298178.298122454.2020799171271.1570812188620.93824661572622165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-26 16:00:04FORECAST2023215-7056.08441.7248.902156.70053120.102362260.102362263.743.84236226TF24.084176.084122454.2154397814471.1758006929930.9027700269189165112127DRYL
2023-04-26 12:00:08FORECAST2023215-7047.87636.91442.395156.64929192855003.973.97TF15.876166.876122454.1967383423471.1495974575860.65514042865519163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023215-7046.86836.55441.711157.11948365430.015748040.015748044.014.02574804TF14.868161.868122454.3682588344871.3901062169790.6137040548188163111122.5WETL
2023-04-26 04:00:15FORECAST2023215-7048.8336.10442.467157.686227355250.007874020.007874024.054.05787402TF16.83152.83122454.5747282933371.6801739556110.69272263987466163111122.5WETL
2023-04-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023215-7048.14634.32241.234158.589116776480.047244120.047244123.693.73724412TF16.146155.146122454.9030451324172.1426721464790.66595392235712163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-25 20:00:04FORECAST2023215-7048.43435.36641.9159.9732368003.693.69FF16.434154.434122455.4048918224172.8525945993850.6773382720271163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023215-7055.0440.71247.876158.543517298830.094488240.134488243.693.82448824TF23.04170.04122454.8864818836672.1193028095270.8816221449476165112127DRYL
2023-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023215-7058.08241.5449.811156.88446080.129921330.129921333.693.81992133TF26.082178.082122454.2825508266871.2698730372920.93530690770038165112127DRYL
2023-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023215-7058.08240.4649.271156.9049280.074803190.074803193.693.76480319TF26.082178.082122454.2900168281371.2803423815360.93530690770038165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 04:00:18FORECAST2023215-7060.87242.851.836156.746378066670.027559070.027559073.693.71755907FF28.872173.872122454.232171023971.1992476093540.96583263220528165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023215-7047.40836.96842.188161.436984615570.531496350.551496353.594.14149635TF15.408158.408122455.9336935266573.6045606675810.63609812663824163113127.5WETL
2023-04-24 20:00:05FORECAST2023215-7050.01840.74845.383156.587427278120.547244390.567244393.664.22724439TF18.018167.018122454.174155581971.1179625587840.73680641583483164113129WETL
2023-04-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023215-7048.75840.15444.456156.9405880.535433360.535433363.664.19543336TF16.758161.758122454.3030239143371.2985837032930.68994952075533163113127.5WETL
2023-04-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023215-7042.90825.77234.34161.396115487550.204724520.264724523.663.92472452TF10.908154.908122455.9189555822673.583548408120.44269769263131162112124DRYL
2023-04-24 08:00:07FORECAST2023215-7044.4225.77235.096160.634840706430.200787510.260787513.653.91078751TF12.42159.42122455.6441500458673.1923254614330.5084727463612163112125DRYL
2023-04-24 04:00:15FORECAST2023215-7049.31634.66441.99159.860052042430.114173290.114173293.653.76417329TF17.316164.316122455.3639201165772.7944999680810.71114810948328164112126DRYL
2023-04-24 00:00:05FORECAST2023215-7030.03826.88828.463165.708953458550.023622060.023622063.753.77362206TF-1.962142.038122457.4658142461675.8061813217930.060223198551084161111121.5DRYL
2023-04-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023215-7028.52625.5227.023165.302257668570.023622060.023622063.673.69362206FF-3.474144.526122457.3206697514475.5961391884170.042820967406181161111121.5DRYL
2023-04-23 16:00:09FORECAST2023215-7025.86220.82223.342168.4529184259400.153.673.82TF-6.138113.862122458.4411913433477.2257566084490.022131671588247161112123DRYL
2023-04-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023215-7029.0327.06828.049171.178147689390.031496080.481496083.654.13149608TF-2.97115.03122459.4032032941878.6397893824710.048104517120512161112123WETL
2023-04-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023215-7029.0327.06828.049171.695271630520.031496080.531496083.654.18149608TF-2.97122.03122459.5849986981278.9085711887880.048104517120512161113124.5WETL
2023-04-23 04:00:10FORECAST2023215-7037.16635.88836.527166.683739447760.007874020.127874023.733.85787402TF5.166151.166122457.8130930679176.3099983207050.21999703752346161112123DRYL