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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 24, 2023

[ Tuesday, May 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 25, 2023 ]

DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/25/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.537
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 424

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.26 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 90 in
SWE DAY: 143
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-25 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023236-4951.4999432.0300641.76589.98857142857100.261.081.34FF19.49994424.49994143440.73932014098 39.6615017918860.5365670548791116 3132127DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:02FORECAST2023236-4847.91230.68639.29989.994647200.261.081.34FF15.912420.912144441.3378136184939.7180408326150.41201609556236162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2023236-4847.85830.77639.31790.972802400.261.081.34FF15.858420.858144441.7263117805440.1850804764920.4101768878693162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2023236-4848.90231.06439.98390.894082400.261.081.34FF16.902421.902144441.6950819169140.147469171430.44603712840285162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:09FORECAST2023236-4848.16431.04639.60591.42541723478300.261.081.34FF16.164421.164144441.9057523959340.4014177912480.42062400663337162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2023236-4950.4531.08240.76690.294334400.261.081.34FF18.45425.45143440.8613297040439.8072803283250.49994366076212163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2023236-4950.55831.65841.10891.755633600.261.081.34FF18.558427.558143441.4431297300440.5048940667470.50371608239707163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2023236-4950.79231.5541.17191.755830400.261.081.34FF18.792427.792143441.4432079384340.5049881188310.5118880728443163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:03FORECAST2023236-4948.88433.0840.98291.16848080.007874020.267874021.081.34787402FF16.884425.884143441.2096208622640.2244108483560.44541420991946162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2023236-4949.08232.21640.64991.20282240.059055150.319055151.081.39905515FF17.082426.082143441.2232880019240.2408091743830.45227338866624162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:12FORECAST2023236-4947.82234.59241.20791.3645038833330.110236280.370236281.081.45023628FF15.822425.822143441.2876173688440.3180242307620.40895184329311162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:04FORECAST2023236-4950.88233.72842.30591.77881680.027559070.027559071.081.10755907FF18.882430.882143441.4523424729240.5159736657530.51503000495722163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2023236-4951.33233.92642.62991.86747520.011811030.011811031.081.09181103FF19.332433.332143441.4875693198240.5583483255970.53072178206224163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:04FORECAST2023236-4949.35232.9941.17192.0585680.011811030.011811031.081.09181103FF17.352431.352143441.5634696931440.6497007010620.46164941922971162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:06FORECAST2023236-4949.67633.47641.57691.77035440.007874020.007874021.081.08787402FF17.676431.676143441.4489796732340.511929314130.47292839709261162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:03FORECAST2023236-4950.91833.15242.03591.815418748455001.081.08FF18.918430.918143441.4668865711440.5334670541050.51628652751027163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2023236-4951.51232.4541.98191.3580446001.081.08FF19.512432.512143441.2850478742340.3149390850070.53698652339161163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2023236-4950.70233.0841.89190.4026928001.081.08FF18.702433.702143440.904545562639.8589581866190.50874540275103163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:04FORECAST2023236-4951.38632.57641.98192.7809816001.081.08FF19.386431.386143441.8500733384340.9952835243720.53260207445289163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:04FORECAST2023236-4951.09832.2741.68492.90534737925600.011.081.09FF19.098431.098143441.8993600211241.0548135494330.52256646530552163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2023236-4951.3532.2741.8191.3927544001.081.08FF19.35433.35143441.298854892740.3315178622090.53134862441187163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:04FORECAST2023236-4949.87430.66840.27191.7282984001.081.08FF17.874430.874143441.4322663321240.4918306495010.47983238973725162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:18FORECAST2023236-4950.03632.16241.09991.887516526316001.081.08FF18.036431.036143441.4955312870840.5679279274360.48548570859868162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023236-4950.59431.87441.234100.5471248001.121.12FF18.594430.594143444.8981527236644.7332300851950.50497349909246163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-20 20:00:03FORECAST2023236-4950.55832.57641.567106.3613648001.121.12FF18.558429.558143447.1411070232747.5585384011770.50371608239707163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-20 16:00:03FORECAST2023236-4950.05433.18841.621106.43792001.121.12FF18.054427.054143447.1704192713847.5958893127740.4861140560895162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:05FORECAST2023236-4948.52432.01840.271103.5895352001.121.12FF16.524429.524143446.0759518150446.2088005124180.43298614403752162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023236-4946.00430.238.102104.51666001.111.11FF14.004418.004143446.4330611665346.6596924667010.34848167971786162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:13FORECAST2023236-4943.41228.70636.059104.8923351890700.11.11.2FF11.412413.412143446.5775242531946.8425593618710.26881993533903162132126DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:08FORECAST2023236-4950.34230.14640.24491.0792528001.161.16FF18.342421.342143441.1741046680940.1818078078790.49617124416506162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:04FORECAST2023236-4948.6530.95639.80396.717553600.011.141.15FF16.65418.65143443.4026250051142.8848171503120.43732908083667162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:05FORECAST2023236-4947.64231.56839.60596.372366400.051.121.17FF15.642423.642143443.267106092642.7186999614240.4028401784867162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023236-4949.92834.03441.98193.334758400.011.151.16FF17.928421.928143442.0694177838141.260442304880.48171643493766162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:04FORECAST2023236-4949.08232.8140.94693.59002777657600.031.151.18FF17.082419.082143442.1704231250941.3827421822580.45227338866624162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:19FORECAST2023236-4949.134.14241.62193.225155100.011.171.18FF17.1423.1143442.0260296976641.2079451768020.45289768872055162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023236-4948.61433.27840.94690.9256346402240.051181130.051181131.161.21118113FF16.614415.614143441.1129398390940.1084740028840.43608744740196162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023236-4948.52434.26841.39696.2443288001.191.19FF16.524414.524143443.216808899842.657104285440.43298614403752162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:04FORECAST2023236-4948.70431.51440.10996.66233200.041.191.23FF16.704413.704143443.3809532409742.8582369046550.43919268496601162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023236-4949.56832.59441.08193.6014032001.351.35FF17.568420.568143442.1749226443741.3881932193650.46916587495327162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:05FORECAST2023236-4949.31632.1840.74892.9727256001.231.23FF17.316422.316143441.926055792441.0870699206770.46039793409807162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023236-4956.7538.55247.65190.771149031579001.271.27FF24.75439.75143441.0514055522440.0347428639690.70934745383162164131124DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023236-4956.7538.55247.65187.9451744001.271.27FF24.75431.75143439.9214998074738.6889730228770.70934745383162164131124DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2023236-4956.7538.55247.65193.6337576001.271.27FF24.75430.75143442.187719632841.4036977537950.70934745383162164131124DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:07FORECAST2023236-4952.39437.9445.16795.23689040.098425250.098425251.251.34842525FF20.394415.394143442.820484221942.1728459227160.56752256996454163132127DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2023236-4954.84235.74445.29393.04020880.106299270.106299271.251.35629927FF22.842415.842143441.9527885782541.1193797290630.64966352846232163132127DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:04FORECAST2023236-4952.48433.02642.75593.93732160.090551230.090551231.221.31055123FF20.484408.484143442.3077357099141.5492040155490.57061905742463163132127DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:11FORECAST2023236-4948.79436.62642.7194.148563907860.090551230.170551231.221.39055123FF16.794402.794143442.3911971962941.650495901510.44230166871063162132126DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023236-4945.48233.36839.425109.249427200.091.31.39FF13.482397.482143448.2429793607848.9702887415860.33173438660617162122125DRYL
2023-05-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023236-4944.90630.93837.922113.2587797657400.151.41.55FF12.906400.906143449.7593157659850.9391912919290.3136381112579162132126DRYL
2023-05-16 16:00:07FORECAST2023236-4944.6932.82838.759113.70322800.051.381.43FF12.69397.69143449.9264572038151.1580905466770.30696291211514162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023236-4943.39429.78636.59109.49948160.015748040.015748041.541.55574804FF11.394412.394143448.3380020684249.0927788080720.26830015691155162131123DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023236-4943.86230.0236.941109.5896160.015748040.015748041.71.71574804FF11.862410.862143448.3722390787449.1369415056990.28197626238832162131123DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:20FORECAST2023236-4946.95830.63238.795108.92570411667001.421.42FF14.958420.958143448.1198722772148.8117726164660.37984344469733162131123DRYL
2023-05-16 00:00:05FORECAST2023236-4947.53432.43239.98396.0248001.021.02FF15.534392.534143443.1305330132742.5515208064920.39918443771682162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 20:00:07FORECAST2023236-4947.10232.52239.81299.4413272001.411.41FF15.102406.102143444.4678083951344.1984687644870.38465268246828162131123DRYL
2023-05-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023236-4953.2433.9843.6199.3124232001.431.43FF21.24412.24143444.4175639911744.1361851926040.59644032907103163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023236-4945.80630.39838.10299.7085471824160.192913490.222913491.41.62291349FF13.806389.806143444.5719134358344.3276196067940.34209227158172162122125DRYL
2023-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023236-4945.10426.72635.915100.524083323480.114173290.114173291.271.38417329FF13.104386.104143444.889197974944.7220788069450.31981114256193162122125DRYL
2023-05-15 04:00:17FORECAST2023236-4949.15431.40640.2898.3929285517940.007874020.007874021.131.13787402FF17.154393.154143444.0586843222243.692234399320.45477128143501162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 00:00:06FORECAST2023236-4943.80825.3434.57494.94836400.011.21.21FF11.808432.808143442.7067914493442.0342855798040.28038127900954162131123DRYL
2023-05-14 20:00:08FORECAST2023236-4942.85425.3434.09799.11414800.011.281.29FF10.854431.854143444.340247851744.040405087930.25294527821447162131123DRYL
2023-05-14 16:00:10FORECAST2023236-4946.02233.0839.55198.5353592001.951.95FF14.022441.022143444.1143300205543.7609650344420.34906470455243162131123DRYL
2023-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2023236-4944.02438.62441.32495.3102008001.21.2FF12.024442.024143442.8493586444742.2080612965560.28678723210027162131123DRYL
2023-05-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023236-4944.0638.6641.3695.7815368001.161.16FF12.06434.06143443.0348731846242.4345610096160.28786159090952162131123DRYL
2023-05-14 04:00:15FORECAST2023236-4945.2343.89844.56494.733633808696001.051.05FF13.23450.23143442.6221237068241.9312021828690.32376570301921162131123DRYL