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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 23, 2023

[ Monday, May 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 24, 2023 ]

DAY 235 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.173
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 410

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.26 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.29 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 92 in
SWE DAY: 142
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.80 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -50

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-24 04:00:08OBSERVATION2023235-5039.5099629.334.4049892.49040043478300.261.291.55FF7.50996409.50996142441.14029759645 40.8012427726150.1725993571623916 1132125DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2023235-4942.15226.79834.47591.490386400.261.291.55FF10.152412.152143441.3376848566840.3781553204190.23775714730187161132125DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023235-4943.57427.55435.56492.39090400.261.291.55FF11.574413.574143441.6953829022540.8086357189650.2777445038879162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2023235-4943.55626.2434.89892.36728800.261.291.55FF11.556413.556143441.686012743540.7973391446510.27721856076261162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:11FORECAST2023235-4944.52826.97835.75392.60641028333300.261.291.55FF12.528414.528143441.7808637188540.9117399208740.30629337071136162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2023235-5044.9626.88835.92493.184264001.291.29FF12.96416.96142441.4163296924841.1330557999750.31963363311297162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:01FORECAST2023235-5045.33827.06836.20393.2812864001.291.29FF13.338419.338142441.4548882911441.1794798673660.3315015898438162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2023235-5045.0527.93236.49193.3084448001.291.29FF13.05419.05142441.4656798681841.1924760210750.32244322622023162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:05FORECAST2023235-5044.79827.57236.18593.028792001.291.29FF12.798418.798142441.354522263341.0586780498920.31460242511431162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:03FORECAST2023235-5044.38427.28435.83493.124138748455001.291.29FF12.384417.384142441.3924299726641.1042898912920.30190187819769162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:07FORECAST2023235-5044.65426.65435.65492.6679454001.291.29FF12.654417.654142441.2109746744540.8861145110130.3101588968147162131123DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2023235-5044.36627.80636.08691.7116096001.291.29FF12.366420.366142440.8298998247740.4292196727370.30135493446577162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2023235-5044.20427.01435.60994.0925552001.291.29FF12.204417.204142441.7769307298241.5679202407830.29645263373445162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:03FORECAST2023235-5043.5227.26635.39394.20225937925600.011.291.3FF11.52416.52142441.8204281463741.6204825712980.2761681366136162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2023235-5045.1428.34636.74392.7055088001.291.29FF13.14419.14142441.2259238235240.9040737638090.32526298950721162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2023235-5045.39227.03236.21292.8866632001.291.29FF13.392418.392142441.2979980240140.990698513290.33321125890124162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:17FORECAST2023235-5043.21427.55435.38493.055327726316001.291.29FF11.214418.214142441.3650731895341.0713715326010.26731912801483162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:04FORECAST2023235-5045.37427.12236.248101.7939512001.331.33FF13.374417.374142444.8012625643345.2780780151720.33264098208062162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 20:00:03FORECAST2023235-5045.84227.15836.5107.62118001.331.33FF13.842415.842142447.0506140777148.1121146067680.3475904935327162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 16:00:03FORECAST2023235-5044.31227.39235.852107.678744001.331.33FF12.312414.312142447.0726685402448.1402234251420.29971678400195162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:05FORECAST2023235-5045.17629.22837.202104.6866952001.331.33FF13.176418.176142445.9220436668646.6821050683140.32639371183207162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023235-5042.94426.92434.934105.357488001.321.32FF10.944408.944142446.1807653234547.0084846283960.25963162941266162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:13FORECAST2023235-5040.74827.66234.205105.565784789070.098425250.098425251.311.40842525FF8.748406.748142446.2610147713747.1098942451060.20158738975389161132125DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:08FORECAST2023235-5044.61826.3335.47492.1520096001.371.37FF12.618407.618142441.0055027175440.6395433200790.30905229500855162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:04FORECAST2023235-5044.09627.15835.62797.75222960.007874020.007874021.351.35787402FF12.096407.096142443.2214598490243.3258859068090.29320485690114162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:05FORECAST2023235-5044.04228.74236.39297.3685680.047244120.047244121.331.37724412FF12.042413.042142443.0706520706843.1411549149490.29158717230567162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023235-5043.44828.09435.77194.67142400.011.361.37FF11.448409.448142442.0063139796941.8453671614480.27407316007659162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:04FORECAST2023235-5041.52227.2334.37694.80064297657600.031.361.39FF9.522406.522142442.0574724170241.9073326177340.22110424951654161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:19FORECAST2023235-5043.4327.3235.37594.491858300.011.381.39FF11.43411.43142441.9351951388941.7592778368460.27355064405427162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023235-5047.04829.22838.13891.938856001.371.37FF15.048404.048142440.9205354461740.5377296158290.38717064707325162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023235-5045.42829.8437.63497.5387808001.41.4FF13.428403.428142443.137576602143.2230989484360.33435296824613162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:04FORECAST2023235-5043.19628.83236.01497.7781880.035433090.035433091.41.43543309FF11.196402.196142443.2316581396543.338388397130.26680308223884162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023235-5046.20229.33637.76994.8681064001.561.56FF14.202408.202142442.0841748520141.9396885376170.35925505253502162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:05FORECAST2023235-5045.66228.3136.98694.2065632001.441.44FF13.662409.662142441.8221343528341.6225448230680.34181104024179162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023235-5050.8132.16241.48692.935358631579001.481.48FF18.81419.81142441.3173663634541.0139877133310.51645048126904163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2023235-5050.8132.16241.48690.109384001.481.48FF18.81411.81142440.189376546939.6651935639850.51645048126904163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2023235-5050.8132.16241.48695.7979672001.481.48FF18.81410.81142442.4517536494842.3859785836950.51645048126904163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:06FORECAST2023235-5047.71431.20839.46196.9080176001.461.46FF15.714399.714142442.8894270289842.9195363893780.4095731908742162131123DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2023235-5047.76830.238.98494.7705728001.461.46FF15.768397.768142442.0455689831541.8929117762350.41140369487858162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:04FORECAST2023235-5047.26429.46238.36395.399840800.011.421.43FF15.264393.264142442.2944784925442.1948228349070.39439917691065162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:10FORECAST2023235-5046.81429.67838.24695.4907850444750.015748040.105748041.41.50574804FF14.814390.814142442.3304189648242.2384789560020.37938371586493162122125DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023235-5047.62429.53438.579110.26343920.023622060.093622061.511.60362206FF15.624388.624142448.0596256528649.4045952911490.40652674478441162122125DRYL
2023-05-16 20:00:06FORECAST2023235-5045.0529.80437.427114.106298965740.055118140.145118141.611.75511814FF13.05393.05142449.5150823265451.2925023735610.32244322622023162122125DRYL
2023-05-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023235-5049.92829.15639.542114.59768400.051.591.64FF17.928389.928142449.7001686824551.5345978254190.48578459198433162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023235-5043.57430.45237.013110.1242232001.751.75FF11.574405.574142448.0066314328249.3363822749880.2777445038879162131123DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023235-5043.98830.6537.319110.2743816001.911.91FF11.988403.988142448.063790212849.4099573830690.28997365711281162131123DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:19FORECAST2023235-5044.47431.38837.931109.84781051667001.631.63FF12.474411.474142447.9013561131949.2009832964790.30464325449636162131123DRYL
2023-05-16 00:00:05FORECAST2023235-5044.07832.46838.27397.1159576001.231.23FF12.078382.078142442.9712769741343.0195797526370.29266516697867162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023235-5044.45632.84638.651100.4639984001.621.62FF12.456396.456142444.2832082423744.6344675220090.30409409484476162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023235-5047.19231.3739.281100.8913496001.641.64FF15.192396.192142444.4498645092144.8411466598710.3919854893019162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023235-5040.49627.17633.83699.56039120.027559070.027559071.611.63755907FF8.496381.496142443.9302278564444.1978671508930.19546236364986161121122DRYL
2023-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023235-5040.22626.45633.341100.1595488001.481.48FF8.226378.226142444.1643701295844.4873029052150.18902653726637161121122DRYL
2023-05-15 04:00:17FORECAST2023235-5042.40427.08634.74599.321045704348001.341.34FF10.404381.404142443.8365953905544.0823147760470.24460577340122161121122DRYL
2023-05-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023235-5056.31840.11848.21895.24887760.011811030.011811031.411.42181103FF24.318426.318142442.2348006546842.1223683980180.69895831762399163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-14 20:00:08FORECAST2023235-5055.439.50647.45399.37107040.011811030.041811031.461.50181103FF23.4426.4142443.8561698632544.1064627029550.67053011172287163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-14 16:00:10FORECAST2023235-5060.65641.10850.88298.94834400.851.312.16FF28.656431.656142443.6906803138743.9024580652910.815848846228071641331212DRYL
2023-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2023235-5061.7941.77451.78295.6918944001.411.41FF29.79434.79142442.409866376942.3350382148570.84099968813549164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 08:00:06FORECAST2023235-5061.44842.20651.82796.1648048001.371.37FF29.448427.448142442.5965278155842.5622087025430.83366264006545164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 04:00:15FORECAST2023235-5061.03443.6152.32294.939683408696001.261.26FF29.034442.034142442.1125004669641.974020825360.82449391046032164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 00:00:07FORECAST2023235-5046.43640.92843.68297.625474400.361.321.68FF14.436414.436142443.1716518057943.2648427481720.36690876746645162132126DRYL
2023-05-13 20:00:07FORECAST2023235-5046.88642.54844.717101.853545600.281.181.46FF14.886418.886142444.8244353320545.3069459080870.3817746532153162132126DRYL
2023-05-13 16:00:06FORECAST2023235-5052.2546.16649.208101.711849600.31.21.5FF20.25423.25142444.7693323208145.2383114357060.56622728755947163132127DRYL
2023-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2023235-5049.78442.00845.89699.452782400.261.21.46FF17.784421.784142443.8881381084544.1459104092410.48078109360599162132126DRYL
2023-05-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023235-5049.78442.00845.89699.313152800.261.271.53FF17.784420.784142443.8335066999944.0785048686560.48078109360599162132126DRYL
2023-05-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023235-5040.11838.89439.506100.2756502833300.331.231.56FF8.118400.118142444.2096997395144.5434165035440.1864891003313161132125DRYL