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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 22, 2023

[ Sunday, May 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 23, 2023 ]

DAY 234 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/23/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.45°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.077
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 404

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.26 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.26 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 93 in
SWE DAY: 141
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -51

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-23 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023234-5134.4600630.4500232.4550493.2560470833330.259999999999990.259999999999991.711.97FF2.46006404.46006141440.84919803205 41.1118535683260.07654027086252316 1132125DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:02FORECAST2023234-5036.19427.73431.96493.8596816001.711.71FF4.194406.194142441.6845567823641.456371867230.10089688423178161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2023234-5038.1227.91433.01793.7228072001.711.71FF6.12408.12142441.6302373270841.3908255866960.13405484037762161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:01FORECAST2023234-5037.2227.44632.33393.789617948455001.711.71FF5.22407.22142441.6567539465941.4228182170060.11773224149918161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:07FORECAST2023234-5037.00427.71632.3693.3126622001.711.71FF5.004407.004142441.4673556143141.1944942267650.11403282029443161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:02FORECAST2023234-5138.94828.20233.57592.387716001.711.71FF6.948409.948141440.5024306480740.6970134600240.15038382880001161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:02FORECAST2023234-5138.19227.532.84694.7400272001.711.71FF6.192407.192141441.4400568468841.8220429928430.13542454797145161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2023234-5137.5827.93232.75694.7910849792560.007874020.007874021.711.71787402FF5.58406.58141441.460346314241.8465052024420.1240845864996161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2023234-5138.89429.10233.99893.3801392001.711.71FF6.894407.894141440.8986916983441.1711812038890.14928023933598161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2023234-5137.90427.84232.87393.5223272001.711.71FF5.904406.904141440.9553836635141.239173671580.13000279137263161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:16FORECAST2023234-5138.06629.08433.57593.658027726316001.711.71FF6.066409.066141441.0094699080541.3040771602160.13303380828732161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:04FORECAST2023234-5139.05628.23833.647102.513156800.041.711.75FF7.056406.056141444.4988671662745.5669820672380.1526072324261161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2023234-5139.07428.54433.809108.335957600.041.711.75FF7.074404.074141446.7509615401348.3991932271710.15297990354226161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2023234-5138.40828.09433.251108.34540400.041.711.75FF6.408404.408141446.7545881448948.4038063414110.13959090863604161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:05FORECAST2023234-5139.66829.1234.394105.377364800.041.711.75FF7.668406.668141445.6108242586346.957294386730.16561544479113161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023234-5138.17428.07633.125105.8967200.031.711.74FF6.174400.174141445.8115859362347.2099846886450.13508122785764161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:12FORECAST2023234-5138.15628.54433.35105.916380800.021.711.73FF6.156400.156141445.8191808035247.2195541219290.13473850334244161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:07FORECAST2023234-5139.228.41833.80992.77645600.041.751.79FF7.2397.2141440.6577682423340.8826660463930.15560543771906161121122DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2023234-5139.39829.24634.32298.389074400.061.711.77FF7.398397.398141442.8835185755443.5748994596620.15979082115647161121122DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:05FORECAST2023234-5140.51429.82235.16897.922363200.041.711.75FF8.514402.514141442.6996458741643.3501955118010.18474007637308161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023234-5139.90229.55234.72795.2569040.007874020.077874021.711.78787402FF7.902399.902141441.6453331745842.0697671042590.17077283282195161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2023234-5138.3929.0333.7195.2435413765760.027559070.097559071.711.80755907FF6.39399.39141441.6400296350142.0633604360950.13924042811301161132125DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:18FORECAST2023234-5138.7529.42634.08895.09947830.007874020.097874021.711.80787402FF6.75401.75141441.5828404904441.9942977568730.14636375737868161132125DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:04FORECAST2023234-5139.12827.64433.38692.676954400.041.751.79FF7.128391.128141440.6180227517640.8351364023830.15410152439803161121122DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:04FORECAST2023234-5140.128.45434.27798.291245600.061.761.82FF8.1392.1141442.8449944954643.5277861166830.17521598216049161121122DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:04FORECAST2023234-5139.81228.41834.11598.32775200.061.761.82FF7.812392.812141442.8593714990243.5453664516310.1687772114941161121122DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023234-5143.91630.34437.1395.644285600.141.841.98FF11.916395.916141441.7990042243542.2555501378290.27451897395577162122125DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:05FORECAST2023234-5143.71829.26436.49194.954206400.111.751.86FF11.718397.718141441.5251502809841.9246702505710.26876322565525162122125DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:12FORECAST2023234-5146.74231.51439.12894.28402903157900.021.881.9FF14.742402.742141441.2587344234641.6036513268190.36260286434197162131123DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2023234-5146.74231.51439.12891.458054400.021.881.9FF14.742394.742141440.130322234240.2534629539850.36260286434197162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2023234-5146.74231.51439.12897.146637600.021.881.9FF14.742393.742141442.3935464777142.9770455362490.36260286434197162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023234-5144.0629.69636.87897.92655600.031.851.88FF12.06386.06141442.7012987044443.3522135188530.27874278148674162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2023234-5144.79830.54237.6795.76962800.11.781.88FF12.798383.798141441.8486941406142.3156850701320.30087196328636162122125DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:04FORECAST2023234-5139.86629.58834.72796.289475200.091.761.85FF7.866379.866141442.0546101631142.5652064223460.16997278359769161121122DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:10FORECAST2023234-5140.38830.27235.3396.3508550498590.055118140.165118141.741.90511814FF8.388378.388141442.0789053164342.5946805267440.18180802024359161122124DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023234-5138.73230.7434.736111.18288880.070866180.070866181.932.00086618FF6.732374.732141447.8400089520449.7921459155060.14600189805947161121122DRYL
2023-05-16 20:00:05FORECAST2023234-5140.06431.83835.951114.769483406870.086614220.086614222.032.11661422FF8.064382.064141449.2008400494951.5545483584130.17440274316075161121122DRYL
2023-05-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023234-5138.24630.66834.457115.5162480.047244120.047244122.012.05724412FF6.246374.246141449.4826226248451.9225461068220.13645808368407161121122DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:06FORECAST2023234-5154.51840.4647.489111.02232002.172.17FF22.518395.518141447.7787952902249.7134406999260.62930162371797163121123DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023234-5154.33840.58647.462111.2207928002.332.33FF22.338394.338141447.8544554563149.8107275948640.62332618796436163121123DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:19FORECAST2023234-5155.52639.72247.624110.91486011667002.052.05FF23.526400.526141447.737814399549.6607770530630.66215442623459163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023234-5145.17630.30837.74297.9423208001.651.65FF13.176372.176141442.7075131382943.3598012723610.31250465636636162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023234-5146.16633.24239.704101.3413328002.042.04FF14.166386.166141444.0415988016744.9997674412040.34384443307238162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023234-5145.9531.8238.885101.8490768002.062.06FF13.95382.95141444.2398974316645.2454234311410.33690498653188162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023234-5143.5231.08237.30199.998074400.041.992.03FF11.52374.52141443.5157564190444.3507216079640.26306866041691162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023234-5143.32229.91236.617100.565153600.041.861.9FF11.322372.322141443.7379685026644.6245769606220.25743631954155162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 04:00:16FORECAST2023234-5142.87228.25635.56499.84197530434800.041.721.76FF10.872372.872141443.4545322107544.2753764535870.24487213306899161121122DRYL
2023-05-15 00:00:05FORECAST2023234-5159.16241.70250.43297.35030800.011.821.83FF27.162404.162141442.473972709243.0749775252240.76945587652207164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 20:00:08FORECAST2023234-5158.76641.41450.09101.393485600.031.881.91FF26.766404.766141444.0619787837145.0249918513140.75876689514047164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 16:00:09FORECAST2023234-5160.15242.11651.134101.459807200.851.732.58FF28.152405.152141444.0878916716745.0570718688620.794987475040591641331212DRYL
2023-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2023234-5160.60243.68252.14298.1501232001.831.83FF28.602406.602141442.7894049273343.4598346452720.80601512626174164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023234-5160.24243.80852.02598.6054200.021.771.79FF28.242400.242141442.9686794942343.6791126883740.79722226523749164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 04:00:15FORECAST2023234-5162.38445.96854.17697.550924208696001.681.68FF30.384415.384141442.5531522239643.1714690109190.84603634513517164131124DRYL
2023-05-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023234-5161.89840.17251.03598.17887600.361.742.1FF29.898401.898141442.8007325680443.4736782155070.83570414791352164132128DRYL
2023-05-13 20:00:07FORECAST2023234-5159.48637.95848.722102.374770400.291.591.88FF27.486406.486141444.4449369670145.499948377440.7780011693756164132128DRYL
2023-05-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023234-5163.15840.76651.962102.414228800.31.621.92FF31.158405.158141444.4603161281145.5190605084650.86158712041556165132129DRYL
2023-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2023234-5165.1240.152.6199.99683600.261.621.88FF33.12406.12141443.5152707970844.3501237973920.89610344469836165132129DRYL
2023-05-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023234-5165.1241.9953.55599.857206400.261.691.95FF33.12405.12141443.4605071243644.2827273901660.89610344469836165132129DRYL
2023-05-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023234-5155.34641.1848.263100.3987486833300.351.631.98FF23.346394.346141443.6727952974944.5441934727050.65636916363917163122126DRYL
2023-05-13 00:00:08FORECAST2023234-5148.34440.94644.645100.8720056001.661.66FF16.344375.344141443.858076206744.7728543487270.41640270113602162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-12 20:00:08FORECAST2023234-5146.32840.94643.637105.3310216001.751.75FF14.328373.328141445.5928969814946.9347550567640.34908390077676162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-12 16:00:05FORECAST2023234-5141.03630.99236.014106.4388088001.661.66FF9.036353.036141446.0208532142547.4739283160850.19719683536134161121122DRYL
2023-05-12 12:00:09FORECAST2023234-5153.3343.93448.632102.222959200.031.51.53FF21.33386.33141444.3857532160545.4264267200660.58935404131511163121123DRYL
2023-05-12 08:00:08FORECAST2023234-5153.3343.93448.632100.311440800.031.521.55FF21.33398.33141443.6385897678744.5020261340950.58935404131511163121123DRYL
2023-05-12 04:00:13FORECAST2023234-5156.80452.68254.743101.869792266670.03937010.23937011.391.6293701FF24.804391.804141444.2479823964245.2554496816090.70206995986348164122127DRYL