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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 2, 2023

[ Monday, May 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 3, 2023 ]

DAY 214 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/03/2023 04:00:15 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.975
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 207

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 121
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 64.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -71

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-03 04:00:15OBSERVATION2023214-7163.7199633.5100248.61499144.491649523810.100000000000020.110000000000023.753.86TF31.71996206.71996121449.12562415567 64.8949022776640.975273941392516 5122128DRYL
2023-05-03 00:00:02FORECAST2023214-7060.02637.4948.758142.863047200.013.753.76TF28.026203.026122449.0755308450764.1562987594850.94319294312283165121124DRYL
2023-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2023214-7058.20836.91447.561144.957609600.013.753.76TF26.208201.208122449.8652026098865.2113844125480.91836869941673165121124DRYL
2023-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2023214-7058.136.17647.138145.035050400.013.753.76TF26.1201.1122449.8943181364565.2504451055930.91667077848714165121124DRYL
2023-05-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023214-7059.01837.36448.191145.1864917391300.013.753.76TF27.018202.018122449.9512392018965.3268418733960.93028413320645165121124DRYL
2023-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2023214-7159.41436.80648.11146.49895668390.051181130.051181133.753.80118113TF27.414202.414121449.882228828965.9072771540620.93560076646125165121124DRYL
2023-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2023214-7160.18836.69848.443146.96990960.125984320.175984323.753.92598432TF28.188203.188121450.0591848470666.1451577116210.94508017627115165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 16:00:01FORECAST2023214-7158.98237.00447.993146.88872960.110236280.160236283.753.91023628TF26.982201.982121450.0286973418166.1041436360820.92978457889626165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2023214-7161.4337.43649.433146.28061760.102362260.152362263.753.90236226TF29.43204.43121449.8001181785165.7970390837060.95795655985402165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 08:00:04FORECAST2023214-7160.54837.32848.938146.23732160.070866180.120866183.753.87086618TF28.548203.548121449.7838304664265.7751826663980.94909713695231165122128DRYL
2023-05-01 04:00:08FORECAST2023214-7159.37836.2347.804146.349245866670.023622060.033622063.753.78362206TF27.378203.378121449.8259320775465.8316859308190.93513080603927165121124DRYL
2023-05-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023214-7160.56634.86247.714147.355854400.023.753.77TF28.566196.566121450.20404215466.3402012859370.9492916965392165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-30 20:00:04FORECAST2023214-7159.86434.77247.318149.505560.027559070.027559073.753.77755907TF27.864196.864121451.0083016083767.4282486966080.94125517635411165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-30 16:00:04FORECAST2023214-7160.835.85248.326149.32617680.110236280.110236283.753.86023628TF28.8197.8121450.9413576051767.3373488921820.95176762165995165112127DRYL
2023-04-30 12:00:03FORECAST2023214-7160.6236.75248.686148.2967160.043307110.043307113.753.79330711TF28.62197.62121450.5565828336466.816061606410.94987183535654165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-30 08:00:04FORECAST2023214-7158.87436.17647.525148.5353360.027559070.027559073.753.77755907TF26.874192.874121450.6458598546966.9368342105260.92826944936892165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-30 04:00:14FORECAST2023214-7159.48636.30247.894148.080207716670.011811030.011811033.753.76181103TF27.486194.486121450.4755318308666.7065103247890.93653277310913165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023214-7159.64835.647.624148.22480560.082677210.082677213.753.83267721TF27.648188.648121450.5296677445366.7796724184660.93859151351306165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-29 20:00:05FORECAST2023214-7158.3735.7847.075152.58689760.043307110.053307113.753.80330711TF26.37184.37121452.1534765509968.992696225970.92086665100622165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2023214-7158.38836.21247.3152.604867654950.066929170.106929173.753.85692917TF26.388184.388121452.1601288446869.0018366211890.92114060103052165112127DRYL
2023-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2023214-7159.10837.43648.272150.605254642020.015748040.225748043.753.97574804TF27.108190.108121451.4180305842367.9859274461370.93152108812864165112127DRYL
2023-04-29 08:00:04FORECAST2023214-7155.6738.5747.12151.0276890869800.373.754.12TF23.67186.67121451.575119027368.200346675870.87119013948086165112127WETL
2023-04-29 04:00:12FORECAST2023214-7157.75840.92849.343149.1021837333300.293.754.04TF25.758190.758121450.857722814667.2238710246950.91111948123654165112127WETL
2023-04-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023214-7158.76637.32848.047149.1251762083800.323.754.07TF26.766181.766121450.8663099632167.2355179196840.92672945308518165112127WETL
2023-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2023214-7158.51438.06648.29152.8507105656100.233.753.98TF26.514181.514121452.2511063865469.1269029652650.92303823713064165112127DRYL
2023-04-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023214-715940.29849.649152.6601118512600.23.753.95TF27182121452.1805776663769.0299375635160.93003469793904165112127DRYL
2023-04-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023214-7156.13837.95847.048151.017811918010.125984320.235984323.753.98598432TF24.138179.138121451.5714479812968.1953319987810.88107022898015165112127DRYL
2023-04-28 08:00:06FORECAST2023214-7155.70639.30847.507150.5545249732100.023.753.77TF23.706180.706121451.3991546743867.960185305310.87196971767373165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-28 04:00:13FORECAST2023214-7157.81239.16448.488150.6008118070900.043.753.79TF25.812183.812121451.4163775550767.983672922810.91201379264031165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2023214-7158.67640.65849.667151.0314330574200.13.753.85TF26.676181.676121451.576510524268.202247519540.92542697416928165112127DRYL
2023-04-27 20:00:06FORECAST2023214-7158.44241.32449.883154.9570591398600.033.753.78TF26.442177.442121453.0282654257170.19992771760.92195815490848165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023214-7156.22838.2147.219156.2311340686700.053.753.8TF24.228165.228121453.4963343565970.8502466125150.88290737776135165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-27 12:00:05FORECAST2023214-7158.17237.3147.741154.3039369041900.053.753.8TF26.172167.172121452.787733832369.8669299122490.9178056385552165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2023214-7157.18236.24846.715154.383759348940.007874020.077874023.753.82787402TF25.182167.182121452.8171522181869.9076142571270.90115721106206165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-27 04:00:11FORECAST2023214-7156.4839.14647.813153.9451286007600.083.753.83TF24.48168.48121452.6554221342869.6840971722930.88794448135818165111123.5DRYL
2023-04-27 00:00:05FORECAST2023214-7153.88834.57444.231156.3030344003.753.75TF21.888159.888121453.5227039339870.8869747941750.82846548033097164111123DRYL
2023-04-26 20:00:04FORECAST2023214-7154.4134.3444.375158.8530312003.753.75TF22.41158.41121454.4548126183172.1915245278470.84182420059949164111123DRYL
2023-04-26 16:00:04FORECAST2023214-7153.16834.44843.808158.7570912003.753.75TF21.168158.168121454.4198525453772.1423739736370.80889550172671164111123DRYL
2023-04-26 12:00:07FORECAST2023214-7150.0933.29641.693157.9886143285500.233.753.98TF18.09157.09121454.1395156511471.7488727895630.71101742642342164112126DRYL
2023-04-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023214-7149.35233.11641.234158.354502054300.273.754.02TF17.352153.352121454.2730580869271.936183910040.68447633187605163112125WETL
2023-04-26 04:00:14FORECAST2023214-7148.45230.75839.605158.9323041647100.313.754.06TF16.452142.452121454.4836928768572.2321405142030.65078615181184163112125WETL
2023-04-26 00:00:03FORECAST2023214-7145.71630.1137.913159.4427032003.73.7FF13.716144.716121454.6694992536772.4937340235960.54193540392383163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-25 20:00:04FORECAST2023214-7145.91429.06637.49161.148428003.73.7FF13.914143.914121455.2887089252273.3690597294490.55002646268696163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023214-7148.39830.21839.308160.506695698830.043307110.043307113.73.74330711TF16.398153.398121455.056062959473.0395450233330.64872306413855163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023214-7152.62830.45241.54159.0995432003.73.7FF20.628157.628121454.5446013436872.3178384378060.79335752123489164111123DRYL
2023-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023214-7152.5230.70441.612159.0425696003.73.7FF20.52157.52121454.5238544607772.2886417579380.79016265724063164111123DRYL
2023-04-25 04:00:17FORECAST2023214-7152.8831.8242.35159.18689486667003.73.7FF20.88150.88121454.5764045412372.3626063185720.80069948340064164111123DRYL
2023-04-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023214-7147.26430.52438.894162.7705014155700.023.63.62FF15.264149.264121455.8750681756274.2030134298010.60447138479286163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-24 20:00:04FORECAST2023214-7149.15433.56641.36158.3447528781200.023.673.69FF17.154155.154121454.2695014222171.9311919427670.67718264396887163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023214-7147.60633.81840.712158.6082712003.673.67FF15.606150.606121454.3656063959472.06614332320.61798946090356163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023214-7143.28627.46435.375160.65591382130.055118140.055118143.673.72511814TF11.286150.286121455.110192557273.1161438746650.44225027382802162111122DRYL
2023-04-24 08:00:07FORECAST2023214-7144.63628.83236.734160.17199645910.055118140.055118143.663.71511814TF12.636152.636121454.9345745427772.8677790627870.49758368668196162111122DRYL
2023-04-24 04:00:15FORECAST2023214-7144.0628.00436.032160.59870961083003.663.66FF12.06153.06121455.0894438772473.0867774441960.47390669960935162111122DRYL
2023-04-24 00:00:05FORECAST2023214-7138.6627.06832.864165.48778616536003.763.76TF6.66149.66121456.8519355164175.6034154139730.26686971298878162111122DRYL
2023-04-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023214-7138.3926.31232.351165.08177589346003.683.68FF6.39154.39121456.7064024015875.3939039703650.25779644153462162111122DRYL
2023-04-23 16:00:08FORECAST2023214-7132.39623.88228.139168.452918425940.153543390.153543393.683.83354339TF0.396126.396121457.9102397012477.1363162547930.1022740647415161112123DRYL
2023-04-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023214-7137.2226.34831.784170.836789854480.090551230.450551233.664.11055123TF5.22124.22121458.7553212988778.3722864193580.22040428266239161112123WETL
2023-04-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023214-7137.74226.97832.36171.353913795610.090551230.500551233.664.16055123TF5.742130.742121458.9379671338178.6408168577790.23669107063858161113124.5WETL
2023-04-23 04:00:09FORECAST2023214-7144.9629.60637.283166.696334821780.047244120.117244123.743.85724412TF12.96151.96121457.2842487979676.2276082463490.51091108879785163112125DRYL
2023-04-23 00:00:08FORECAST2023214-7129.71426.34828.031169.92326676070.114173290.264173293.613.87417329TF-2.286131.714121458.4320822617477.8982770058240.061064558162697161112123DRYL
2023-04-22 20:00:09FORECAST2023214-7129.71427.06828.391170.567132885610.125984320.305984323.533.83598432TF-2.286127.714121458.659984469178.2323185202530.061064558162697161112123DRYL
2023-04-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023214-7127.30221.48824.395170.1521116416300.063.483.54FF-4.698120.302121458.5131266636278.0169767172220.03628474093728161111121.5DRYL
2023-04-22 12:00:04FORECAST2023214-7147.44443.89845.671165.72820967647003.353.35FF15.444173.444121456.9380438496875.7275239402760.61160296547071163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-22 08:00:08FORECAST2023214-7147.44443.89845.671166.57311575511003.353.35FF15.444164.444121457.2402324945776.1639301752120.61160296547071163111122.5DRYL
2023-04-22 04:00:14FORECAST2023214-7144.61844.02444.321166.12334184742003.373.37FF12.618163.618121457.0794473325675.9315652806550.49684321721073162111122DRYL