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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 19, 2023

[ Thursday, May 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 20, 2023 ]

DAY 231 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/20/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.990
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 437

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 138
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.03 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -54

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-20 04:00:09OBSERVATION2023231-5470.5399851.3399260.93995110.015528001.931.93FF38.53998436.53998138445.66882541589 49.0304911412690.9901312605917716 5131119DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2023231-5363.87844.7854.32997.19481280.035433090.035433091.931.96543309FF31.878429.878139441.2263675489442.8849141963430.9499388020336165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2023231-5364.0445.5954.815100.1290816001.931.93FF32.04430.04139442.3897221786644.2960765910290.95163718778716165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:01FORECAST2023231-5364.445.96855.184100.076536001.931.93FF32.4430.4139442.3689654861744.2707536997590.95524695264437165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:15FORECAST2023231-5366.36246.83256.59799.9871047001.931.93FF34.362432.362139442.3336317429744.2276591494160.9712944615634165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:03FORECAST2023231-5465.10245.42855.26597.349084800.041.931.97FF33.102423.102138440.6914894920242.9009131811970.96166272489006165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2023231-5464.68845.60855.148103.014740800.051.931.98FF32.688422.688138442.937639742545.6291061486380.95797627827996165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:02FORECAST2023231-5465.51645.01455.265102.96878800.051.931.98FF33.516423.516138442.9195514628545.6068893956330.96508190047337165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2023231-5465.26443.14254.203100.5053440.07874020.12874021.932.0587402FF33.264423.264138441.9467756693344.4180127183370.96303174297411165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:02FORECAST2023231-5466.18247.67856.9399.99100720.011811030.041811031.931.97181103FF34.182425.182138441.7429028218344.1703177766070.97005565829336165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:11FORECAST2023231-5466.25448.14657.299.8404802315790.074803190.174803191.932.10480319FF34.254425.254138441.6831865363844.0978614540060.97055638539878165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:02FORECAST2023231-5466.25448.14657.297.01450560.074803190.174803191.932.10480319FF34.254417.254138440.5578320148242.7405002611250.97055638539878165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2023231-5466.25448.14657.2102.70308880.074803190.174803191.932.10480319FF34.254416.254138442.8149235811745.4784604185220.97055638539878165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:03FORECAST2023231-5465.1247.01256.066102.98687440.07874020.13874021.932.0687402FF33.12414.12138442.9266710168145.6156334364180.96181684404417165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:02FORECAST2023231-5465.7546.79656.273100.395215200.071.932FF33.75414.75138441.9031452160244.3649613615190.96690138138865165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2023231-5465.53446.70656.12100.478756800.051.931.98FF33.534414.534138441.9362435604144.4052043378120.9652247071269165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:09FORECAST2023231-5465.01247.82256.417100.71855700.031.931.96FF33.012414.012138442.0312109910744.5207457199830.96088452831525165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:02FORECAST2023231-5463.7746.68855.229116.04916240.035433090.185433091.962.14543309FF31.77408.77138447.9840476313951.9881734961840.94878044946404165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2023231-5465.1247.35456.237120.05967120.03937010.25937011.992.2493701FF33.12412.12138449.5034433695653.9672356142170.96181684404417165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 16:00:04FORECAST2023231-5465.0345.96855.499120.27959520.035433090.235433091.992.22543309FF33.03410.03138449.5863155702954.0760600442530.96104118479546165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:05FORECAST2023231-5464.83247.10255.967117.96690.059055150.399055151.992.38905515FF32.832409.832138448.7125206006952.9332250464490.95928968404503165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2023231-5462.6946.99454.842117.998880.070866180.5508661822.55086618FF30.69409.69138448.7246384881252.9490047700030.935994792253851651331213.5DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:16FORECAST2023231-5465.89448.2957.092117.771765716670.043307110.323307111.952.27330711FF33.894412.894138448.6385588295952.8369552419420.96798182928613165132129DRYL
2023-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2023231-5466.52446.90456.714102.75073520.03937010.16937011.71.8693701FF34.524401.524138442.8336911292945.5014873348640.97237275579183165132129DRYL
2023-05-15 20:00:05FORECAST2023231-5465.49848.75857.128107.27160560.102362260.362362261.92.26236226FF33.498408.498138444.6041347654247.6933993926860.96493861421457165132129DRYL
2023-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2023231-5465.24648.1156.678107.48995520.07874020.35874021.922.2787402FF33.246405.246138444.6891303044247.7996146943490.96288162546973165132129DRYL
2023-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023231-5464.34646.5855.463105.142426400.311.92.21FF32.346402.346138443.7728472482446.6593539301170.95471970057836165132129DRYL
2023-05-15 08:00:04FORECAST2023231-5462.92446.63454.779105.514181600.251.832.08FF30.924397.924138443.9183143872346.839677639820.93895629995154165122128DRYL
2023-05-15 04:00:14FORECAST2023231-5463.26646.07654.671104.7099217043500.081.861.94FF31.266402.266138443.6034359889846.4496810501860.94309129026683165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2023231-5463.57248.86656.219105.140832800.161.882.04FF31.572404.572138443.7722233797246.6585811396520.94660169131989165132129DRYL
2023-05-14 20:00:06FORECAST2023231-5463.6849.42456.552109.369789600.181.922.1FF31.68403.68138445.4189346912148.7153751710340.94779900661773165132129DRYL
2023-05-14 16:00:07FORECAST2023231-5464.90447.51656.21109.529689600.051.91.95FF32.904403.904138445.4808516914448.7933794085070.95993382312784165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2023231-5465.58848.61457.101107.275345600.061.992.05FF33.588399.588138444.6055910079147.6952184310660.96565026055462165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 08:00:05FORECAST2023231-5464.1347.78655.958107.622008800.061.931.99FF32.13395.13138444.7405110860947.8638671978240.95256069680596165121124DRYL
2023-05-14 04:00:14FORECAST2023231-5465.17449.5557.362107.2022914087001.91.9FF33.174403.174138444.5771434189947.6596884824480.96227618129209165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023231-5463.17649.06456.12106.787892001.961.96FF31.176396.176138444.4156747261747.4582130757660.94202506486331165121124DRYL
2023-05-13 20:00:06FORECAST2023231-5465.4849.33457.407110.792988800.011.81.81FF33.48399.48138445.9691473656249.4102547492240.96479484724165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023231-5465.1248.66856.894111.06968960.023622060.023622061.821.84362206FF33.12396.12138446.0758898975449.5455106289630.96181684404417165121124DRYL
2023-05-13 12:00:03FORECAST2023231-5464.50850.12657.317108.4835408001.841.84FF32.508396.508138445.0753022162848.2833447070520.95628666875763165121124DRYL
2023-05-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023231-5465.08449.51457.299108.785432001.911.91FF33.084395.084138445.1924438339948.4304523256170.96150810050538165121124DRYL
2023-05-13 04:00:10FORECAST2023231-5467.13648.32657.731109.06926468333001.851.85FF35.136395.136138445.3024963832648.5688158421750.97614698051201165121124DRYL
2023-05-13 00:00:08FORECAST2023231-5465.24646.9456.093107.428102400.071.811.88FF33.246381.246138444.6650580494647.769523389840.96288162546973165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 20:00:07FORECAST2023231-5465.51646.54456.03111.66906400.071.91.97FF33.516379.516138446.3068527343949.8386685016350.96508190047337165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 16:00:05FORECAST2023231-5462.88848.4755.679111.736468001.881.88FF30.888374.888138446.3328041934349.8716510931090.9385077611454165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 12:00:07FORECAST2023231-5464.09448.21856.156108.9520432001.721.72FF32.094385.094138445.2570548461148.5116658746980.95219299750612165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 08:00:07FORECAST2023231-5468.05449.80258.928107.3452696001.741.74FF36.054397.054138444.6328147442447.7292293717270.98099168582766165121118DRYL
2023-05-12 04:00:13FORECAST2023231-5466.84849.56858.208108.41506506667001.611.61FF34.848386.848138445.0487193551348.2499858667230.97442846318919165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 00:00:08FORECAST2023231-5465.42648.6557.038108.72292880.007874020.007874021.661.66787402FF33.426378.426138445.1681983437148.3999903325480.96436065091069165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 20:00:05FORECAST2023231-5467.02849.1958.109110.21404320.027559070.027559071.691.71755907FF35.028388.028138445.7455653802749.127420999030.9755142392314165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 16:00:05FORECAST2023231-5465.10247.67856.39110.4692928001.61.6FF33.102384.102138445.844180299949.2520912967250.96166272489006165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023231-5464.59847.3955.994109.0984824001.681.68FF32.598383.598138445.3138206816348.5830620281120.95713818023142165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 08:00:06FORECAST2023231-5464.5848.1156.345108.5902464001.71.7FF32.58384.58138445.1167170213848.335333978110.95696895548107165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 04:00:09FORECAST2023231-5467.76649.1958.478108.3575783666700.011.81.81FF35.766390.766138445.0263989596848.2219829005090.97957069161456165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 00:00:07FORECAST2023231-5462.22246.97654.599107.750500800.031.581.61FF30.222384.222138444.7904895433147.9263979993690.92973911699587165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 20:00:06FORECAST2023231-5463.8648.93856.399109.28461600.031.551.58FF31.86387.86138445.3859432250348.6738317771450.94974720220514165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023231-5465.31848.79457.056108.8282368001.51.5FF33.318386.318138445.2090459371148.4513154767460.9634791288355165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 12:00:04FORECAST2023231-5461.30446.20253.753108.51945760.102362260.102362261.481.58236226FF29.304381.304138445.0892435745748.3008432963070.91612170249829165122128DRYL
2023-05-10 08:00:05FORECAST2023231-5463.62646.86855.247108.29982880.102362260.102362261.531.63236226FF31.626382.626138445.0039732190748.1938541149450.94720303262371165122128DRYL
2023-05-10 04:00:21FORECAST2023231-5464.70646.9455.823107.70667490.173228440.173228441.51.67322844FF32.706390.706138444.7734447829247.9050688213870.95814230057467165122128DRYL
2023-05-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023231-5451.13440.53245.833109.235081600.181.181.36FF19.134386.134138445.366753099448.649673616740.63134324830821163122126DRYL
2023-05-09 20:00:05FORECAST2023231-5451.0845.2348.155110.954621600.141.171.31FF19.08372.08138446.0315093666249.489257343450.62925207825404163122126DRYL
2023-05-09 16:00:06FORECAST2023231-5452.64643.62848.137109.7408576001.21.2FF20.646386.646138445.5625823293348.8964198992910.68812228401203163121123DRYL
2023-05-09 12:00:05FORECAST2023231-5446.09440.78443.439109.103717600.021.21.22FF14.094386.094138445.3158496688248.5856147050720.42793038728584162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023231-5456.4855.63456.057108.692405600.071.231.3FF24.48392.48138445.1563567518348.3851152834880.8116394054749164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 04:00:12FORECAST2023231-5456.4855.63456.057108.28757127143001.241.24FF24.48399.48138444.9992128613348.1878839784510.8116394054749164131124DRYL