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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 18, 2023

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DAY 230 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/19/2023 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 68.59°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 53.28°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 60.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.964 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 37 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 407 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 1.94 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.94 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 103 in SWE DAY: 137 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.38 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 45.61 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -55 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 1 D₂: 3 D₃: 1 D₄: 1 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-19 04:00:13	OBSERVATION	2023	230	-55	68.59004	53.27996	60.935	103.0923135	0	0	1.94	1.94	F	F	36.59004	406.59004	137	442.37830870909	45.605803287037	0.96390146667372	16	5	1	3	1	1	1	9	DRY	L
2023-05-19 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	230	-54	60.584	47.12	53.852	100.3198792	0.0393701	0.0393701	1.94	1.9793701	F	F	28.584	398.584	138	441.87329182504	44.328675257595	0.85689992461122	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	230	-54	61.322	44.942	53.132	103.4183776	0.04724412	0.04724412	1.94	1.98724412	F	F	29.322	399.322	138	443.09643154743	45.824314070984	0.87156420197105	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2023-05-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	230	-54	61.844	47.372	54.608	103.1899912	0.03149608	0.03149608	1.94	1.97149608	F	F	29.844	399.844	138	443.00660371986	45.713847539395	0.88128668478916	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2023-05-18 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	230	-54	62.06	48.182	55.121	103.13205863158	0.09842525	0.09842525	1.94	2.03842525	F	F	30.06	400.06	138	442.98380967726	45.685832232476	0.88515417405287	16	5	1	3	2	1	2	9	DRY	L
2023-05-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.06	48.182	55.121	100.306084	0.09842525	0.09842525	1.94	2.03842525	F	F	30.06	392.06	137	441.27377433615	44.262444275559	0.88515417405287	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.06	48.182	55.121	105.9946672	0.09842525	0.09842525	1.94	2.03842525	F	F	30.06	391.06	137	443.52059562724	47.010817929855	0.88515417405287	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	60.998	47.93	54.464	106.079488	0.06299216	0.06299216	1.94	2.00299216	F	F	28.998	389.998	137	443.55385228946	47.051965551293	0.86525951884959	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.25	48.434	54.842	103.4947168	0.07086618	0.07086618	1.94	2.01086618	F	F	29.25	390.25	137	442.53718690237	45.80026083193	0.87018111773114	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.142	48.47	54.806	103.5388984	0.04724412	0.04724412	1.94	1.98724412	F	F	29.142	390.142	137	442.55462093539	45.821617933479	0.86808727120734	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-17 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.07	49.712	55.391	103.8293746	0.02362206	0.03362206	1.94	1.97362206	F	F	29.07	390.07	137	442.66919396756	45.962065564338	0.86667853775957	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.304	48.686	54.995	119.0444584	0.13779535	0.17779535	1.94	2.11779535	F	F	29.304	386.304	137	448.55384974309	53.397850105901	0.87121939079949	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.266	49.55	56.408	123.1434288	0.18503947	0.27503947	1.94	2.21503947	F	F	31.266	388.266	137	450.10068366993	55.426941492339	0.90510995453948	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.484	48.542	55.013	123.2751864	0.16141741	0.26141741	1.94	2.20141741	F	F	29.484	386.484	137	450.1501385494	55.492342237664	0.87463875711026	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.376	49.676	55.526	121.0405224	0.25984266	0.39984266	1.94	2.33984266	F	F	29.376	386.376	137	449.30911888114	54.384610468457	0.87259479955004	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.816	49.28	56.048	120.9819744	0.34645688	0.54645688	1.94	2.48645688	F	F	30.816	387.816	137	449.28702000277	54.355630752228	0.89798454875607	16	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2023-05-16 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.024	50.648	56.336	120.98629691667	0.23228359	0.30228359	1.94	2.24228359	F	F	30.024	388.024	137	449.28865164431	54.357770209127	0.88451587422408	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.25	47.57	54.41	105.693092	0.13385834	0.16385834	1.68	1.84385834	F	F	29.25	376.25	137	443.40229554466	46.864559616013	0.87018111773114	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.536	49.532	56.534	110.4525824	0.19291349	0.32291349	1.85	2.17291349	F	F	31.536	383.536	137	445.25879032059	49.179983227209	0.90920589687912	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.24	49.118	55.679	110.5856192	0.1181103	0.3581103	1.85	2.2081103	F	F	30.24	381.24	137	445.31036112799	49.244922021515	0.88830814612272	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.034	48.632	54.833	108.1463816	0.21653555	0.36653555	1.85	2.21653555	F	F	29.034	379.034	137	444.36203234188	48.056145918197	0.86597031485375	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.556	48.65	55.103	108.4145216	0.14566937	0.31566937	1.77	2.08566937	F	F	29.556	375.556	137	444.46656770305	48.18663030472	0.87598865099093	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.97	49.082	55.526	107.62423450435	0.00787402	0.18787402	1.76	1.94787402	F	F	29.97	379.97	137	444.1582669636	47.802193480735	0.88355371951379	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.968	49.604	56.786	108.2078624	0	0.28	1.77	2.05	F	F	31.968	381.968	137	444.38600714805	48.086059913962	0.91548512737857	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	64.346	49.712	57.029	112.5140632	0	0.31	1.8	2.11	F	F	32.346	381.346	137	446.05595544122	50.187567961249	0.9207080624707	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.86	49.64	56.75	112.6317496	0	0.1	1.86	1.96	F	F	31.86	379.86	137	446.10133840443	50.245174243393	0.91394662717894	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.114	48.668	55.391	110.43556	0	0.21	1.85	2.06	F	F	30.114	375.114	137	445.2521904458	49.171674993108	0.88610692624875	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	60.674	48.002	54.338	110.6606992	0	0.18	1.82	2	F	F	28.674	371.674	137	445.33945768592	49.281575768873	0.85874630581539	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.68	49.496	56.588	110.4508690087	0	0.17	1.74	1.91	F	F	31.68	378.68	137	445.25812602247	49.179146952365	0.91133620318345	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.97	47.606	54.788	109.9202592	0	0.19	1.78	1.97	F	F	29.97	373.97	137	445.05226440885	48.920260261368	0.88355371951379	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-13 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.798	48.182	55.49	114.0713816	0	0.1	1.72	1.82	F	F	30.798	374.798	137	446.65540167051	50.950598767658	0.8976916720403	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.654	47.21	54.932	114.3229904	0	0.09	1.74	1.83	F	F	30.654	371.654	137	446.75202914918	51.074027939602	0.89532669321791	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.392	48.83	56.111	111.7991288	0	0.13	1.72	1.85	F	F	31.392	373.392	137	445.77996625961	49.837811864318	0.90703797130958	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-13 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.672	48.11	55.391	112.0844888	0	0.19	1.73	1.92	F	F	30.672	370.672	137	445.89018510167	49.977373458058	0.89562445541312	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-13 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.636	46.958	54.797	112.39331508333	0	0.08	1.78	1.86	F	F	30.636	368.636	137	446.00937769756	50.128472517684	0.89502831825925	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-13 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	61.25	46.994	54.122	110.5995344	0.07480319	0.18480319	1.71	1.89480319	F	F	29.25	357.25	137	445.31575425365	49.251715081439	0.87018111773114	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-12 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	60.44	46.634	53.537	114.8313448	0.07086618	0.20086618	1.78	1.98086618	F	F	28.44	355.44	137	446.94706851223	51.323532931677	0.85391203296511	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	60.602	47.48	54.041	114.781948	0	0.15	1.74	1.89	F	F	28.602	352.602	137	446.92812758092	51.299281099731	0.85727049551106	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-12 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.464	46.76	55.112	112.1567344	0	0	1.73	1.73	F	F	31.464	362.464	137	445.91807692478	50.012715317812	0.90812665435143	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-12 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	65.138	49.118	57.128	110.8858	0	0	1.75	1.75	F	F	33.138	370.138	137	445.42666016459	49.391491553678	0.93085664230844	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-12 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	63.392	49.802	56.597	111.83908986667	0	0	1.62	1.62	F	F	31.392	361.392	137	445.79540582821	49.857352454568	0.90703797130958	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-12 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	64.058	44.906	54.482	111.9769184	0	0.06	1.61	1.67	F	F	32.058	354.058	137	445.84864596534	49.924757448011	0.91675142475611	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-11 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	65.264	44.888	55.076	113.608548	0	0.07	1.63	1.7	F	F	33.264	362.264	137	446.47749436924	50.723659849967	0.9323748320065	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-11 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	64.49	45.122	54.806	113.6381664	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	32.49	360.49	137	446.48888556729	50.738178273847	0.92263238290144	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-11 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.366	46.4	54.383	112.17732	0	0.08	1.61	1.69	F	F	30.366	360.366	137	445.92602346028	50.022786230032	0.89047885908471	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	62.258	46.292	54.275	111.7309776	0	0.08	1.63	1.71	F	F	30.258	361.258	137	445.75363138672	49.804489003588	0.88862011254511	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-11 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	64.274	46.22	55.247	111.77796236667	0	0.2	1.62	1.82	F	F	32.274	364.274	137	445.77178764984	49.827462104046	0.9197324633952	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-11 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	66.992	47.84	57.416	110.6261424	0.02755907	0.09755907	1.52	1.61755907	F	F	34.992	362.992	137	445.32606620768	49.264704814722	0.9506994810469	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-10 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	68.684	49.478	59.081	112.412752	0.02755907	0.08755907	1.5	1.58755907	F	F	36.684	364.684	137	446.0168763173	50.137984505271	0.96457776660039	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-10 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	67.406	48.704	58.055	112.0654	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	35.406	362.406	137	445.88281464321	49.968035976117	0.95444184195572	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	64.868	48.56	56.714	111.258028	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	32.868	360.868	137	445.57074934834	49.573322906979	0.9275153947082	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	66.38	50.18	58.28	111.2415952	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	34.38	360.38	137	445.56439109753	49.565293630006	0.94472374930624	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	66.776	49.496	58.136	110.7856109	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	34.776	366.776	137	445.38785376367	49.342565466648	0.94865200890775	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	64.13	50.864	57.497	109.8854072	0.18110246	0.18110246	1.19	1.37110246	F	F	32.13	376.13	137	445.03873310476	48.903262406989	0.91775418453139	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	65.3	51.548	58.424	111.6637904	0.13779535	0.13779535	1.18	1.31779535	F	F	33.3	362.3	137	445.72766455831	49.771640510721	0.9328038515506	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	67.658	53.438	60.548	110.4851552	0	0.01	1.2	1.21	F	F	35.658	374.658	137	445.27141855523	49.195881785199	0.95660600361323	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	66.56	46.274	56.417	109.5897152	0	0.02	1.21	1.23	F	F	34.56	380.56	137	444.92388235192	48.759081552625	0.94653769425996	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	68.864	55.274	62.069	109.0869896	0	0.07	1.24	1.31	F	F	36.864	376.864	137	444.72841885581	48.514084402548	0.96584442420184	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	68.702	54.968	61.835	108.68215527143	0	0	1.25	1.25	F	F	36.702	383.702	137	444.57083469935	48.316916485944	0.96470613616687	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	45.932	42.08	44.006	114.81354998167	0	0.11	1.38	1.49	F	F	13.932	358.932	137	446.94024546085	51.314796211039	0.39399809410907	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	45.914	42.134	44.024	115.88807673034	0	0.09	1.4	1.49	F	F	13.914	349.914	137	447.35169786467	51.842727887589	0.39336709013085	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	49.154	48.272	48.713	115.1049568	0	0.08	1.39	1.47	F	F	17.154	360.154	137	447.05194050139	51.457894298769	0.50985179858295	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-08 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	49.802	44.222	47.012	115.9741078453	0	0.05	1.38	1.43	F	F	17.802	349.802	137	447.3845919398	51.885028913952	0.53337140019029	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-08 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	49.028	42.926	45.977	117.37094115859	0	0.05	1.44	1.49	F	F	17.028	339.028	137	447.9176678533	52.5725182375	0.50527199960093	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-08 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	230	-55	59.63	58.028	58.829	115.32006762785	0	0.04	1.47	1.51	F	F	27.63	371.63	137	447.13433857838	51.563562163593	0.83633071356793	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L