MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 16, 2023

[ Monday, May 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 17, 2023 ]

DAY 228 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/17/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.857
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 386

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 109 in
SWE DAY: 135
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-17 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023228-5761.6499646.6500254.14999109.46828500.331.611.94FF29.64996385.64996135443.70928456755 48.5720944201870.8567205514492816 5122128DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:01FORECAST2023228-5657.03843.750.369124.71554560.031496080.361496081.611.97149608FF25.038381.038136450.1292322924256.1381127958590.73827204683007164122127DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:01FORECAST2023228-5655.9442.83649.388126.83756160.062992160.392992161.612.00299216FF23.94379.94136450.9235623921657.1940451218070.70410520502557164122127DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:02FORECAST2023228-5657.21843.2550.234126.76218720.070866180.400866181.612.01086618FF25.218381.218136450.8954209159657.1564897537720.74367396992354164122127DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:14FORECAST2023228-5656.6643.77250.216126.997552916670.015748040.345748041.611.95574804FF24.66380.66136450.9832782403257.2737727428560.72674116291552164122127DRYL
2023-05-16 00:00:02FORECAST2023228-5756.42643.17849.802111.24885440.031496080.101496081.611.71149608FF24.426371.426135444.4050600732849.4395538227150.71947918429073164122127DRYL
2023-05-15 20:00:02FORECAST2023228-5757.6545.24851.449116.4829280.062992160.302992161.611.91299216FF25.65373.65135446.4322009409352.0017299190830.7563978788919164122127DRYL
2023-05-15 16:00:01FORECAST2023228-5757.77644.76251.269116.4829280.07874020.31874021.611.9287402FF25.776373.776135446.4322009409352.0017299190830.76004381468955164122127DRYL
2023-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2023228-5757.84845.01451.431113.89392560.062992160.302992161.611.91299216FF25.848373.848135445.432856406450.7320966073460.76211379112499164122127DRYL
2023-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2023228-5756.87644.79850.837113.99822960.070866180.230866181.611.84086618FF24.876371.876135445.4732445057950.7831612078280.73336092413087164122127DRYL
2023-05-15 04:00:12FORECAST2023228-5757.93844.6951.314113.455024904350.110236280.260236281.611.87023628FF25.938373.938135445.2627900724950.5173009366540.76468745556573164122127DRYL
2023-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2023228-5757.23645.06851.152114.20711360.122047310.282047311.611.89204731FF25.236373.236135445.5540954119550.8854471896580.74421095266918164122127DRYL
2023-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023228-5757.59645.39251.494118.65550240.125984320.315984321.611.92598432FF25.596371.596135447.2657495828353.0705422230630.75482623951691164122127DRYL
2023-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2023228-5757.93845.19451.566118.6677040.051181130.301181131.611.91118113FF25.938370.938135447.2704179768253.0765535684290.76468745556573164122127DRYL
2023-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2023228-5757.45245.15851.305116.27992960.149606380.389606381.611.99960638FF25.452369.452135446.3540815918851.9020211841770.75060872129522164122127DRYL
2023-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023228-5756.76845.01450.891116.28012640.11811030.32811031.611.9381103FF24.768367.768135446.3541573454251.9021178352910.73006118713367164122127DRYL
2023-05-14 04:00:13FORECAST2023228-5757.61445.71651.665116.38576660870.165354420.295354421.611.90535442FF25.614371.614135446.3948155998351.9540028237340.75535072342702164122127DRYL
2023-05-14 00:00:05FORECAST2023228-5757.43445.44651.44115.49904720.185039470.355039471.611.96503947FF25.434370.434135446.0532008680851.5187197007740.75007883735403164122127DRYL
2023-05-13 20:00:05FORECAST2023228-5758.40645.9552.178119.88534560.090551230.200551231.611.81055123FF26.406369.406135447.7355669244253.6769331781460.77782007754358164122127DRYL
2023-05-13 16:00:04FORECAST2023228-5758.22645.15851.692119.93700560.090551230.220551231.611.83055123FF26.226368.226135447.7552696680553.7024262856060.77281914323394164122127DRYL
2023-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2023228-5757.25446.14851.701117.4505360.133858340.243858341.611.85385834FF25.254369.254135446.804009945252.4773704550130.7447473484212164122127DRYL
2023-05-13 08:00:05FORECAST2023228-5756.6645.24850.954117.61968560.185039470.305039471.611.91503947FF24.66366.66135446.868912880552.5605810374180.72674116291552164122127DRYL
2023-05-13 04:00:09FORECAST2023228-5757.2944.6950.99117.781699083330.07874020.24874021.611.8587402FF25.29365.29135446.9310515383452.6402986232870.74581837556647164122127DRYL
2023-05-13 00:00:06FORECAST2023228-5756.0343.9750115.9553480.110236280.210236281.611.82023628FF24.03355.03135446.2290899727451.7426494155130.70698123262973164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023228-5756.06644.70850.387120.02647120.129921330.299921331.611.90992133FF24.066354.066135447.7893850741753.746579731270.70812800490286164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2023228-5756.04845.06850.558120.09879520.153543390.283543391.611.89354339FF24.048352.048135447.8169583057453.7822771626480.7075548798011164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 12:00:06FORECAST2023228-5757.86645.19451.53117.86285200.121.611.73FF25.866356.866135446.9621673203652.6802357764790.76262975356209164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 08:00:05FORECAST2023228-5759.10846.1352.619117.054299200.141.611.75FF27.108361.108135446.6518641244652.2825209414630.79671386309319164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 04:00:12FORECAST2023228-5757.30846.0451.674117.7454514666700.011.611.62FF25.308356.308135446.9171513464552.6224617534840.74635300528125164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-12 00:00:06FORECAST2023228-5758.24446.74252.493117.48436640.055118140.055118141.611.66511814FF26.244349.244135446.8169929473552.4940113131720.77332206914955164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-11 20:00:04FORECAST2023228-5758.58646.68852.637119.22689280.074803190.094803191.611.70480319FF26.586355.586135447.484211264453.3521520861130.78275769918382164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 16:00:04FORECAST2023228-5758.3746.95852.664119.1030072001.611.61FF26.37356.37135447.4368725671653.2910770549120.77682493731055164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-11 12:00:05FORECAST2023228-5759.70248.32654.014117.788580.07874020.07874021.611.6887402FF27.702356.702135446.9336900793652.6436847086080.81192753110967164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-11 08:00:05FORECAST2023228-5759.68449.17254.428117.41456160.07874020.09874021.611.7087402FF27.684357.684135446.7902029219352.4596758032540.81147707109511164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 04:00:09FORECAST2023228-5758.2847.5752.925117.430058366670.188976480.198976481.611.80897648FF26.28359.28135446.7961507565752.4672980613460.77432603685756164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 00:00:06FORECAST2023228-5760.18848.2954.239117.0618960.074803190.084803191.511.59480319FF28.188351.188135446.6547825609852.2862557040560.82383835654237164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 20:00:05FORECAST2023228-5760.3548.00254.176119.10651040.062992160.072992161.491.56299216FF28.35350.35135447.4382114013753.2928039796350.82770038724958164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 16:00:04FORECAST2023228-5761.748.2954.995118.595617600.021.491.51FF29.7349.7135447.2428352571853.04104026450.85776760526987165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023228-5760.849.17254.986117.5081992001.491.49FF28.8350.8135446.826138527552.5057348938560.83814299874418164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 08:00:04FORECAST2023228-5759.48647.82253.654117.8457112001.541.54FF27.486348.486135446.9555957014952.6718000502620.80647830267156164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 04:00:19FORECAST2023228-5761.749.87455.787117.4040933001.511.51FF29.7352.7135446.7861849372952.4545269415280.85776760526987165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 00:00:04FORECAST2023228-5766.95649.98258.469116.75294001.191.19FF34.956361.956135446.5360465599452.134396251850.94043580923852165121124DRYL
2023-05-09 20:00:04FORECAST2023228-5764.47248.4756.471118.6090592001.181.18FF32.472347.472135447.2479788556753.0476620011730.90785085331666165121124DRYL
2023-05-09 16:00:06FORECAST2023228-5766.4746.6756.57117.7482560.007874020.007874021.21.20787402FF34.47358.47135446.9182268711652.6238417886910.93489367387504165121124DRYL
2023-05-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023228-5769.45854.2361.844116.8863704001.211.21FF37.458364.458135446.5873371121852.1999729016440.96336957299359165121118DRYL
2023-05-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023228-5769.04453.18661.115116.8133576001.241.24FF37.044358.044135446.5592731965752.1640880695060.960170470693165121118DRYL
2023-05-09 04:00:12FORECAST2023228-5769.2653.02461.142116.37447687143001.251.25FF37.26365.26135446.3904709850851.948457541280.96186672478864165121118DRYL
2023-05-09 00:00:06FORECAST2023228-5763.8648.7456.3118.043333181670.110236280.110236281.381.49023628FF31.86369.86135447.0313447164652.7690699670160.8981017337706165122128DRYL
2023-05-08 20:00:06FORECAST2023228-5763.5948.99256.291119.113530330340.094488240.094488241.41.49448824FF31.59360.59135447.4408942048953.296264522910.89357057390177165122128DRYL
2023-05-08 16:00:04FORECAST2023228-5766.32649.1957.758119.0465656001.391.39FF34.326363.326135447.4153003765753.2632549067230.93317720357376165121124DRYL
2023-05-08 12:00:07FORECAST2023228-5762.11448.23655.175119.46504464530.051181130.051181131.381.43118113FF30.114355.114135447.5751711165953.4695877995710.86623208357524165121124DRYL
2023-05-08 08:00:05FORECAST2023228-5760.04447.01253.528120.681904358590.051181130.051181131.441.49118113FF28.044344.044135448.0390813544654.0702095649280.82035992293958164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 04:00:13FORECAST2023228-5765.58848.5657.074119.41232682785001.471.47FF33.588355.588135447.5550407847653.4435888036410.92382780989274165121124DRYL
2023-05-08 00:00:06FORECAST2023228-5764.59847.3955.994120.6014063458001.331.33FF32.598353.598135448.008436916154.0304475468640.90976962252736165121124DRYL
2023-05-07 16:00:06FORECAST2023228-5765.17449.31657.245119.4966227308100.071.411.48FF33.174363.174135447.5872279376253.4851621159910.9181656001695165121124DRYL
2023-05-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023228-5771.45649.80260.629120.96407221831001.41.4FF39.456354.456135448.1464491483354.2096194391570.97599518645235165121118DRYL
2023-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2023228-5768.34250.7259.531120.44622714741001.371.37FF36.342353.342135447.949344737553.9538085267850.95423149131335165121118DRYL
2023-05-07 04:00:13FORECAST2023228-5758.96441.2750.117120.776242222590.019685050.059685051.121.17968505FF26.964345.964135448.0749864522954.1168130976450.79291822160188164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023228-5746.4934.35840.424125.1578951743700.061.151.21FF14.49318.49135449.7332041342656.287661219470.36705225496746162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-06 20:00:05FORECAST2023228-5746.9434.35840.649125.0639729129100.071.251.32FF14.94322.94135449.697852869956.2410000903140.38286665705301162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-06 16:00:08FORECAST2023228-5753.61846.1349.874124.9940854154300.391.361.75FF21.618329.618135449.671542542756.2062831974690.62590023443023163122126DRYL
2023-05-06 12:00:07FORECAST2023228-5761.84457.30859.576122.53654185981001.221.22FF29.844355.844135448.7433828539654.9874623173970.8607518458672165121124DRYL
2023-05-06 08:00:08FORECAST2023228-5760.27855.02257.65123.34822828128001.261.26FF28.278351.278135449.0505798117655.3895934284620.82599062971641164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-06 04:00:13FORECAST2023228-5757.34455.47256.408123.05191310791001.541.54FF25.344363.344135448.9385075339455.2427422198630.74742049283037164121123.5DRYL