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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 15, 2023

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DAY 227 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/16/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 69.11°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 48.01°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 58.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.952 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 37 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 393 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.33 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.33 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 1.61 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.94 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 129 in SWE DAY: 134 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.74 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 58.30 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -58 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 1 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 1 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 16.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-16 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2023	227	-58	69.11006	48.00992	58.55999	129.34193291667	0.32999999999993	0.32999999999993	1.61	1.9399999999999	F	F	37.11006	393.11006	134	450.74136090463	58.299758864894	0.95238206177974	16	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2023-05-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	227	-57	60.206	45.95	53.078	113.5240592	0.07086618	0.07086618	1.61	1.68086618	F	F	28.206	384.206	135	445.28955221988	50.551077487351	0.80898230918054	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-15 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	227	-57	60.8	47.534	54.167	116.3592392	0.24409462	0.24409462	1.61	1.85409462	F	F	28.8	384.8	135	446.38460689444	51.940973248829	0.82305479111192	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	227	-57	60.188	48.074	54.131	116.386004	0.1574804	0.1574804	1.61	1.7674804	F	F	28.188	384.188	135	446.39490695348	51.954119426267	0.80854544799031	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	227	-57	60.962	48.488	54.725	115.93549210435	0.14566937	0.14566937	1.61	1.75566937	F	F	28.962	384.962	135	446.22144041297	51.732902281788	0.82677632535664	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	63.932	48.47	56.201	116.6240144	0.1574804	0.1574804	1.61	1.7674804	F	F	31.932	384.932	134	445.91000513289	52.003814859722	0.8861318783204	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	62.726	48.056	55.391	121.1490568	0.19291349	0.19291349	1.61	1.80291349	F	F	30.726	382.726	134	447.64691769093	54.232001857683	0.86404988491654	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-14 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.628	48.362	54.995	121.1716888	0.24803163	0.24803163	1.61	1.85803163	F	F	29.628	381.628	134	447.65555478318	54.243179573779	0.84154880959504	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.106	48.272	54.689	118.7367808	0.24015761	0.24015761	1.61	1.85015761	F	F	29.106	381.106	134	446.72346365783	53.042505982557	0.83004229275892	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.052	47.984	54.518	118.7241856	0.20866153	0.20866153	1.61	1.81866153	F	F	29.052	380.052	134	446.71862716974	53.036305203078	0.82882219840457	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-14 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.898	48.848	55.373	118.9105138087	0.13385834	0.13385834	1.61	1.74385834	F	F	29.898	382.898	134	446.79016040116	53.128047537971	0.84729562835659	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-14 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	62.42	48.272	55.346	117.9539304	0.16535442	0.16535442	1.61	1.77535442	F	F	30.42	382.42	134	446.42255911732	52.657295467114	0.85801049779302	16	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-05-13 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.556	48.794	55.175	122.4725768	0.11417329	0.11417329	1.61	1.72417329	F	F	29.556	379.556	134	448.15118153099	54.886229998064	0.83999273363932	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.412	48.722	55.067	122.4608672	0.12598432	0.12598432	1.61	1.73598432	F	F	29.412	379.412	134	448.14672757789	54.88043689203	0.83685078318924	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.556	48.218	54.887	119.9384816	0.10629927	0.10629927	1.61	1.71629927	F	F	29.556	380.556	134	447.18419931403	53.634593861237	0.83999273363932	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.836	47.588	54.212	120.0240896	0.1181103	0.1181103	1.61	1.7281103	F	F	28.836	378.836	134	447.21696804601	53.676809443394	0.82388612427368	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	59.252	47.066	53.159	120.19692708333	0.16535442	0.16535442	1.61	1.77535442	F	F	27.252	377.252	134	447.28310446486	53.76205469297	0.78499502613474	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-13 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	58.496	47.588	53.042	118.2433448	0.10236226	0.10236226	1.61	1.71236226	F	F	26.496	368.496	134	446.53387117063	52.799658493708	0.76480411620937	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	58.298	46.598	52.448	122.294296	0.16535442	0.16535442	1.61	1.77535442	F	F	26.298	367.298	134	448.08335493362	54.798038440925	0.75934834923314	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	57.794	46.976	52.385	122.4211336	0.12992133	0.12992133	1.61	1.73992133	F	F	25.794	364.794	134	448.13161321418	54.860780091676	0.74515589903559	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	59.198	46.688	52.943	120.3734296	0.12204731	0.12204731	1.61	1.73204731	F	F	27.198	368.198	134	447.35061335429	53.84912756312	0.78358699527021	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.458	48.452	54.455	119.7464248	0.14173236	0.14173236	1.61	1.75173236	F	F	28.458	371.458	134	447.11065855226	53.539902851606	0.81503414191841	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	58.766	48.218	53.492	120.27383946667	0.01181103	0.01181103	1.61	1.62181103	F	F	26.766	367.766	134	447.31252572413	53.799994910373	0.77213262180048	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	58.82	47.174	52.997	120.0827168	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	26.82	359.82	134	447.23940505098	53.705722818538	0.77358277665614	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	59.594	47.498	53.546	121.8573216	0.01574804	0.01574804	1.61	1.62574804	F	F	27.594	365.594	134	447.91697888105	54.581963345609	0.79378842895151	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.062	46.67	53.366	121.7533128	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.062	367.062	134	447.87735077948	54.530551185489	0.80547034669414	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.026	47.066	53.546	120.6514296	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.026	366.026	134	447.45688176365	53.986312469143	0.80458626701788	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.268	47.696	54.482	120.3328104	0.01574804	0.01574804	1.61	1.62574804	F	F	29.268	367.268	134	447.33507995605	53.829087361621	0.83366911380779	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.34	46.958	54.149	120.16734956667	0.00787402	0.00787402	1.61	1.61787402	F	F	29.34	370.34	134	447.27178866051	53.747465379276	0.83526491201896	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.818	47.966	54.392	119.8497648	0.00787402	0.00787402	1.51	1.51787402	F	F	28.818	359.818	134	447.15023308738	53.590850265788	0.82347076647275	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.62	47.822	54.221	121.8902464	0.00787402	0.00787402	1.49	1.49787402	F	F	28.62	358.62	134	447.92952128546	54.598239719319	0.81886110626136	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.908	48.938	54.923	121.5012712	0.01574804	0.01574804	1.49	1.50574804	F	F	28.908	356.908	134	447.78127768115	54.405994457819	0.82554137700744	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	62.258	50.126	56.192	120.5277016	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	30.258	359.258	134	447.40959470723	53.92525012385	0.85474092977895	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.61	48.956	55.283	120.731488	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	29.61	357.61	134	447.48747101117	54.025828236535	0.84116072188727	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 04:00:18	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	62.258	50.36	56.309	120.5021189	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	30.258	360.258	134	447.39981551424	53.912625764936	0.85474092977895	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	62.402	49.568	55.985	120.2017616	0	0	1.19	1.19	F	F	30.402	364.402	134	447.28495397963	53.764439405527	0.85764968571497	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	59.504	47.138	53.321	121.8046976	0	0	1.18	1.18	F	F	27.504	351.504	134	447.89693006665	54.555950122737	0.79149524667306	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.466	48.956	55.211	121.0695512	0	0	1.2	1.2	F	F	29.466	361.466	134	447.61657188484	54.19273746778	0.83803367017169	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	68.198	51.206	59.702	120.73076	0	0	1.21	1.21	F	F	36.198	364.198	134	447.48719288009	54.02546888668	0.9437339896373	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	64.904	51.494	58.199	120.5967392	0	0	1.24	1.24	F	F	32.904	357.904	134	447.43598171448	53.959320395517	0.90197634884199	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	66.038	52.178	59.108	120.19810407143	0	0	1.25	1.25	F	F	34.038	365.038	134	447.2835547409	53.762635262185	0.9183514308094	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	68.972	51.548	60.26	121.12344998167	0	0	1.38	1.38	F	F	36.972	374.972	134	447.63714471452	54.219355307767	0.95114568363611	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	67.784	49.892	58.838	122.18636553034	0	0	1.4	1.4	F	F	35.784	365.784	134	448.04227806001	54.744657560086	0.93942172626751	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	67.712	49.964	58.838	122.3815384	0	0	1.39	1.39	F	F	35.712	365.712	134	448.11654997928	54.841192768965	0.93864613315396	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	65.624	50.162	57.893	122.4376102453	0	0	1.38	1.38	F	F	33.624	361.624	134	448.13788099171	54.868931209018	0.91262947311437	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	63.41	50.18	56.795	123.44448435859	0	0	1.44	1.44	F	F	31.41	353.41	134	448.52040230767	55.367369787176	0.87690840130341	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	65.606	50.9	58.253	122.68304442785	0	0	1.47	1.47	F	F	33.606	358.606	134	448.23121402452	54.990369944119	0.91237409137997	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	67.46	51.62	59.54	123.7396775458	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	35.46	358.46	134	448.63236376105	55.513624028401	0.93587055882023	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	68.864	52.754	60.809	122.75120273081	0.07086618	0.07086618	1.41	1.48086618	F	F	36.864	366.864	134	448.25712275473	55.024100950797	0.95016078939661	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	62.996	47.822	55.409	124.70632261831	0	0	1.4	1.4	F	F	30.996	351.996	134	448.99840782274	55.992940301049	0.8692310927313	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	63.284	48.884	56.084	124.01401434741	0	0	1.37	1.37	F	F	31.284	354.284	134	448.73633952989	55.649594848662	0.87460593231331	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	64.058	47.624	55.841	123.31801262259	0.03543309	0.03543309	1.12	1.15543309	F	F	32.058	356.058	134	448.47240816482	55.304726090951	0.88828270177161	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	57.164	45.176	51.17	125.60099037437	0.06299216	0.06299216	1.15	1.21299216	F	F	25.164	341.164	134	449.33639597718	56.437096345985	0.72681885761537	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	57.56	45.842	51.701	125.51749851291	0.06692917	0.06692917	1.25	1.31692917	F	F	25.56	344.56	134	449.30488685255	56.395625467357	0.73842087392561	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	61.106	50.378	55.742	125.73484061543	0.393701	0.393701	1.36	1.753701	F	F	29.106	345.106	134	449.3868959887	56.503589741801	0.83004229275892	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-05-06 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	77.18	51.026	64.103	123.73387305981	0	0	1.22	1.22	F	F	45.18	363.18	134	448.63016303319	55.51074764355	0.9915951782936	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-06 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	77	50.036	63.518	124.45247308128	0	0	1.26	1.26	F	F	45	360	134	448.90236841943	55.867009921842	0.9912186185868	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	72.788	52.394	62.591	123.45220430791	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	40.788	374.788	134	448.52333141438	55.371193946634	0.97710746775324	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	55.058	50.162	52.61	129.97742876573	0	0	1.62	1.62	F	F	23.058	350.058	134	450.97870680495	58.617052738602	0.66118126168874	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	58.856	50.252	54.554	125.49237316886	0	0.03	1.55	1.58	F	F	26.856	369.856	134	449.29540345145	56.383146432982	0.77454664907133	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.8	52.088	56.444	123.97039236545	0	0	1.31	1.31	F	F	28.8	373.8	134	448.7198113054	55.627971069681	0.82305479111192	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	62.24	57.11	59.675	125.85999057271	0	0	1.23	1.23	F	F	30.24	380.24	134	449.4340979639	56.565771332791	0.85437455108907	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	60.044	53.762	56.903	127.55963507462	0	0	1.31	1.31	F	F	28.044	361.044	134	450.07365815435	57.411231590868	0.80502861087659	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	227	-58	52.358	51.224	51.791	130.29008651984	0	0	1.2	1.2	F	F	20.358	336.358	134	451.09533813456	58.773250634246	0.56956945725642	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L