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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 14, 2023

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DAY 226 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/15/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 62.69°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 50.22°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 56.45°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.883 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 31 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 387 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 1.61 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.61 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 119 in SWE DAY: 133 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.10 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 52.91 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -59 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 1 D₂: 2 D₃: 1 D₄: 1 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-15 04:00:10	OBSERVATION	2023	226	-59	62.69	50.21996	56.45498	118.61325130435	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	30.69	386.69	133	446.10027798523	52.913404379601	0.88338120439494	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	226	-58	60.152	43.772	51.962	119.4592136	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.152	384.152	134	447.00061511312	53.398341960129	0.83195014987844	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	226	-58	58.622	43.934	51.278	121.5427552	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	26.622	382.622	134	447.79709476151	54.426492667869	0.79480780755222	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-14 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	226	-58	58.46	43.898	51.179	121.5540712	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	26.46	382.46	134	447.80140905327	54.432084359522	0.79060878981123	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	226	-58	59.882	44.33	52.106	121.8301402087	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.882	383.882	134	447.90662358574	54.568526751854	0.8257297193197	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.81	44.276	52.043	120.7968048	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.81	382.81	133	446.93986311532	53.98890740208	0.82404659635349	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.864	44.546	52.205	125.3291288	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.864	380.864	133	448.66776676861	56.231140329752	0.82530989840706	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.26	44.168	52.214	125.3060048	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.26	381.26	133	448.65900136195	56.219666978223	0.83439790988627	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.602	45.536	53.069	122.8114664	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.602	381.602	133	447.710389271	54.983969428886	0.84199658356303	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.494	45.248	52.871	122.8235696	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.494	381.494	133	447.71500634827	54.989955243181	0.8396220651474	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-13 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.738	44.294	52.016	122.86022148333	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.738	380.738	133	447.72898728715	55.008082542608	0.82235324073838	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.666	44.96	52.313	120.8926664	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.666	372.666	133	446.97661569258	54.036194889524	0.82064966258347	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.828	44.366	52.097	124.8570256	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.828	371.828	133	448.48870877435	55.99696619275	0.82446833678044	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	58.604	44.294	51.449	124.9821904	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	26.604	369.604	133	448.53620185182	56.059036981137	0.79434373085141	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.63	44.456	52.043	123.0061216	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.63	371.63	133	447.78462829604	55.080250438793	0.81979404346629	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	61.034	45.662	53.348	122.5892992	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	29.034	374.034	133	447.6256126519	54.874110158968	0.85126332113836	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.756	45.536	52.646	122.99272986667	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.756	371.756	133	447.77952203442	55.073625793405	0.82277753841597	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	58.928	45.284	52.106	122.7402056	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	26.928	363.928	133	447.6832021258	54.948728272587	0.8026017026642	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.666	45.824	52.745	124.5777864	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.666	368.666	133	448.38269860085	55.858524051752	0.82064966258347	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.72	45.59	52.655	124.4697432	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.72	369.72	133	448.34166097778	55.804971407766	0.82192830414752	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.116	45.806	52.961	123.3303696	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.116	369.116	133	447.90821090533	55.240685197829	0.83112909495142	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.792	46.148	52.97	123.1034592	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.792	368.792	133	447.82173785822	55.128405035303	0.82362421638148	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.476	45.176	52.826	123.00727196667	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	28.476	372.476	133	447.7850669222	55.080819509512	0.83922406252236	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.216	43.88	51.548	122.6705976	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	27.216	362.216	133	447.65664079899	54.914307646421	0.80977145886035	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	58.892	44.294	51.593	124.684216	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	26.892	360.892	133	448.42311232717	55.911284196793	0.80169415700588	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	58.64	44.582	51.611	124.4016112	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	26.64	358.64	133	448.31577687792	55.771204969993	0.79527126269545	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.26	46.058	53.159	123.5566504	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	28.26	360.26	133	447.99439440139	55.352686770212	0.83439790988627	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.576	45.572	52.574	123.6202168	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	27.576	358.576	133	448.01859600516	55.38415596859	0.81850583134608	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.278	46.22	53.249	123.5736749	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	28.278	361.278	133	448.00087651391	55.361114669245	0.83480362258798	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	63.356	48.938	56.147	123.3025424	0	0	1.19	1.19	F	F	31.356	365.356	133	447.89760894781	55.226913918146	0.89480372885168	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	58.946	47.39	53.168	124.5832184	0	0	1.18	1.18	F	F	26.946	354.946	133	448.38476151869	55.861216671515	0.80305453403334	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	61.232	47.984	54.608	124.0836416	0	0	1.2	1.2	F	F	29.232	363.232	133	448.19491746046	55.613657505106	0.85538700051628	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	62.672	48.452	55.562	124.2636152	0	0	1.21	1.21	F	F	30.672	358.672	133	448.26333694599	55.702822810524	0.88306077050147	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.908	49.604	55.256	124.0107272	0	0	1.24	1.24	F	F	28.908	355.908	133	448.16718912594	55.577539030687	0.84859874247112	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	62.618	49.226	55.922	123.71462487143	0	0	1.25	1.25	F	F	30.618	361.618	133	448.05453273255	55.430898438951	0.88209573811781	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-09 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	63.95	50.468	57.209	124.76995718167	0	0	1.38	1.38	F	F	31.95	368.95	133	448.45566224809	55.953793776572	0.90429054301712	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	62.798	48.884	55.841	125.64738873034	0	0	1.4	1.4	F	F	30.798	360.798	133	448.7883544077	56.389084823914	0.885290775035	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	62.24	48.47	55.355	125.8926472	0	0	1.39	1.39	F	F	30.24	361.24	133	448.88121555125	56.5108445041	0.87518312250387	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	61.79	47.156	54.473	125.8031854453	0	0	1.38	1.38	F	F	29.79	358.79	133	448.84734973955	56.466426375916	0.86659188780107	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	61.592	47.858	54.725	126.62742915859	0	0	1.44	1.44	F	F	29.592	352.592	133	449.15907681627	56.875859180488	0.862686147938	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	64.796	46.706	55.751	126.07410522785	0	0	1.47	1.47	F	F	32.796	355.796	133	448.94988298854	56.600954789928	0.91669679159376	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-08 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	64.256	46.958	55.607	127.2519671458	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	32.256	354.256	133	449.39484143322	57.186377597552	0.90892557650487	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	64.94	47.75	56.345	126.43864433081	0	0	1.41	1.41	F	F	32.94	360.94	133	449.0877364382	56.782044580839	0.91868268569311	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	63.338	48.164	55.751	127.79844421831	0	0	1.4	1.4	F	F	31.338	352.338	133	449.6008312852	57.458286757506	0.8945060239593	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	62.978	50.558	56.768	127.19764794741	0	0	1.37	1.37	F	F	30.978	353.978	133	449.37435064952	57.159360450511	0.88842391035492	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	64.202	48.488	56.345	126.47547182259	0	0	1.12	1.12	F	F	32.202	355.202	133	449.10165595849	56.800343833655	0.90811991785437	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	61.448	45.824	53.636	128.12554077437	0	0	1.15	1.15	F	F	29.448	347.448	133	449.72399081037	57.621129521788	0.85979716731813	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-06 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	62.186	46.652	54.419	128.11053531291	0	0	1.25	1.25	F	F	30.186	350.186	133	449.71834314128	57.613657679863	0.87417302003624	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-06 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	60.782	48.308	54.545	128.74342061543	0	0	1.36	1.36	F	F	28.782	346.782	133	449.95635804367	57.928920662202	0.84590269620335	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	63.284	49.568	56.426	127.46825145981	0	0	1.22	1.22	F	F	31.284	349.284	133	449.47640214231	57.293971053526	0.89360926624796	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-06 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	62.996	48.146	55.571	128.11934908128	0	0	1.26	1.26	F	F	30.996	345.996	133	449.7216604427	57.618046403671	0.88873383374221	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	66.722	51.278	59	127.45177070791	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	34.722	364.722	133	449.47018883574	57.285771447535	0.94039919068881	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	64.814	49.262	57.038	130.84698956573	0	0	1.62	1.62	F	F	32.814	357.814	133	450.74472254179	58.978590007234	0.91694699710894	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	65.534	49.352	57.443	126.38840356886	0.00787402	0.02787402	1.55	1.57787402	F	F	33.534	373.534	133	449.06874506503	56.75708178144	0.92649956317174	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	68.342	50.9	59.621	124.97112036545	0	0	1.31	1.31	F	F	36.342	376.342	133	448.53200199826	56.053546809482	0.95594057492717	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-05 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	78.8	51.098	64.949	127.05584577271	0	0	1.23	1.23	F	F	46.8	380.8	133	449.32084541381	57.088840037361	0.99607509773602	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-05 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	78.26	49.586	63.923	128.61891107462	0	0	1.31	1.31	F	F	46.26	364.26	133	449.90956284135	57.866878054713	0.9954622664338	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	68.18	45.95	57.065	130.61470811984	0	0	1.2	1.2	F	F	36.18	347.18	133	450.65787606565	58.86254694422	0.954550352176	16	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2023-05-05 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	54.698	45.338	50.018	133.75586980397	0	0	1.39	1.39	F	F	22.698	336.698	133	451.82798073651	60.434644565182	0.67998469585138	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	57.704	44.402	51.053	137.5126513759	0	0	1.4	1.4	F	F	25.704	328.704	133	453.21520371564	62.322824306805	0.77035725935556	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 16:00:10	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	59.27	48.002	53.636	136.35321111013	0	0	1.25	1.25	F	F	27.27	337.27	133	452.78848209932	61.739163487923	0.81109779505226	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	51.26	44.06	47.66	136.96045661772	0	0	1.42	1.42	F	F	19.26	321.26	133	453.01213010329	62.044748192312	0.5620548141592	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	49.316	43.538	46.427	137.15829083491	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	17.316	320.316	133	453.08491781083	62.14435293001	0.49204613256049	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	226	-59	42.278	41.396	41.837	137.95696584547	0	0.05	1.38	1.43	F	F	10.278	309.278	133	453.378396905	62.546708016895	0.25540430855326	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L