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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 13, 2023

[ Friday, May 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 14, 2023 ]

DAY 225 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/14/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.899
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 378

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 132
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-14 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023225-6063.4800250.6100257.04502124.3920826087001.611.61FF31.48002378.48002132447.74264130486 55.695639624630.8986968735041616 5121124DRYL
2023-05-14 00:00:02FORECAST2023225-5962.09642.96252.529123.4441584001.611.61FF30.096377.096133447.9515558008355.2970028098040.87438825827642165121124DRYL
2023-05-13 12:00:01FORECAST2023225-5959.75642.3551.053125.5733576001.611.61FF27.756374.756133448.7603129560256.3523392555140.82463010652082164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-13 08:00:01FORECAST2023225-5959.9943.08851.539125.5556456001.611.61FF27.99374.99133448.7536032372656.343548369780.8301030336017164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-13 04:00:08FORECAST2023225-5959.84641.93650.891125.49606228333001.611.61FF27.846374.846133448.7310294711856.3139772229790.82674813788381164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-13 00:00:04FORECAST2023225-6061.50242.4451.971123.5580272001.611.61FF29.502366.502132447.4241956350455.2828509342130.86280069943563165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 20:00:02FORECAST2023225-6061.14242.74651.944127.4638384001.611.61FF29.142366.142132448.9096494443157.219747012970.85543402939836165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 16:00:01FORECAST2023225-6060.45842.65651.557127.4926696001.611.61FF28.458365.458132448.9205597941357.234080606480.8407172728872164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2023225-6061.3442.4451.89125.6075224001.611.61FF29.34366.34132448.2054948335256.2979817321050.85951794900346165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 08:00:04FORECAST2023225-6062.49244.54653.519125.3877952001.611.61FF30.492367.492132448.1219259511356.189020275790.88172433708761165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 04:00:10FORECAST2023225-6061.23244.20452.718125.70483066667001.611.61FF29.232366.232132448.242489204156.3462462030060.85730014091668165121124DRYL
2023-05-12 00:00:04FORECAST2023225-6060.29643.95252.124125.3529224001.611.61FF28.296359.296132448.1086584842656.1717298937460.8370932066194164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-11 20:00:03FORECAST2023225-6061.50244.54653.024127.2686328001.611.61FF29.502362.502132448.8357584004457.1227133233760.86280069943563165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2023225-6061.95244.56453.258127.1666904001.611.61FF29.952363.952132448.7971556478657.0720489446730.87164371694235165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2023225-6061.64644.2452.943126.021708001.611.61FF29.646362.646132448.362895347356.5034578754920.8656745032275165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 08:00:04FORECAST2023225-6061.71845.9553.834125.8341576001.611.61FF29.718362.718132448.2916421876956.4104011538090.86709583915994165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 04:00:08FORECAST2023225-6062.8743.9753.42125.71878236667001.611.61FF30.87365.87132448.2477925709356.3531666805630.88844022416547165121124DRYL
2023-05-11 00:00:04FORECAST2023225-6061.55644.61853.087125.262552001.511.51FF29.556356.556132448.0742713110256.1269267099590.86388324483051165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 20:00:04FORECAST2023225-6061.3444.1552.745127.2435016001.491.49FF29.34356.34132448.8262428420457.1102227491930.85951794900346165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 16:00:03FORECAST2023225-6061.48445.01453.249127.010392001.491.49FF29.484354.484132448.73795037556.9943829824050.86243855140974165121124DRYL
2023-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2023225-6060.74644.36652.556126.3327112001.491.49FF28.746353.746132448.4809752585456.6578175260320.84702902439677164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2023225-6060.36844.47452.421126.292564001.541.54FF28.368353.368132448.4657376427456.6378878730530.83871045395709164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 04:00:16FORECAST2023225-6060.27845.0552.664126.3375341001.511.51FF28.278355.278132448.4828056551956.6602117527260.83668725722365164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023225-6062.2445.73453.987126.3611096001.191.19FF30.24356.24132448.4917527533756.6719155243640.87709170844842165121124DRYL
2023-05-09 20:00:03FORECAST2023225-6060.3544.99652.673127.2964016001.181.18FF28.35350.35132448.8462719408557.1365152896450.83830712472859164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023225-6062.13244.94253.537126.9825056001.21.2FF30.132356.132132448.7273846356556.980527632370.87506796734562165121124DRYL
2023-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023225-6060.36843.35851.863127.3027976001.211.21FF28.368350.368132448.848693424257.1396943720050.83871045395709164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023225-6059.77445.3252.547127.0260968001.241.24FF27.774348.774132448.7439003591257.0021861254270.82505501767605164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 04:00:11FORECAST2023225-6061.41246.14853.78126.81924327143001.251.25FF29.412353.412132448.6655119655756.8994207094620.860983456583165121124DRYL
2023-05-09 00:00:05FORECAST2023225-6063.2347.08455.157128.03614838167001.381.38FF31.23359.23132449.1260745097557.5043727180080.89457916418581165121124DRYL
2023-05-08 20:00:05FORECAST2023225-6061.39445.80653.6128.74216713034001.41.4FF29.394352.394132449.392629872157.8557810621380.86061805630901165121124DRYL
2023-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2023225-6061.03444.34852.691128.9246464001.391.39FF29.034353.034132449.4614466944257.9466580855110.85317314545525165121124DRYL
2023-05-08 12:00:06FORECAST2023225-6060.13443.93452.034128.7949390453001.381.38FF28.134351.134132449.4125345645657.8820599954360.83341608824747164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023225-6059.37843.21451.296129.56811315859001.441.44FF27.378345.378132449.7038573396658.2672802756380.81555658685113164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 04:00:13FORECAST2023225-6060.45843.2551.854129.14379162785001.471.47FF28.458345.458132449.5440488883958.0558229771820.8407172728872164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023225-6059.79242.92651.359130.3499927458001.331.33FF27.792343.792132449.99787899258.6572202622320.82547927653249164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 16:00:05FORECAST2023225-6059.93644.92452.43129.63605393081001.411.41FF27.936349.936132449.7294292764758.3011485479590.82884984808383164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2023225-6060.843.23252.016130.91437861831001.41.4FF28.8342.8132450.2097507161458.9389297629060.84819380958301164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2023225-6059.77444.52852.151130.41129354741001.371.37FF27.774344.774132450.0209061564358.6878084952350.82505501767605164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 04:00:12FORECAST2023225-6059.8143.48451.647129.67307822259001.121.12FF27.81344.81132449.7433628338258.319606268840.82590288294574164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023225-6060.96240.7350.846130.94529117437001.151.15FF28.962339.962132450.2213465879958.9543653218830.85165281750556165121124DRYL
2023-05-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023225-6062.02444.13253.078131.03390091291001.251.25FF30.024342.024132450.2545806957158.9986141124650.87302113309709165121124DRYL
2023-05-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023225-6061.48444.20452.844131.71500221543001.361.36FF29.484340.484132450.5097860577659.338897468670.86243855140974165121124DRYL
2023-05-06 12:00:07FORECAST2023225-6060.04445.78852.916130.66054425981001.221.22FF28.044340.044132450.1144983093658.8122053283320.83135033506701164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-06 08:00:07FORECAST2023225-6060.2644.22252.241131.20645228128001.261.26FF28.26337.26132450.319276621859.0847946794190.83628065288145164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-06 04:00:12FORECAST2023225-6065.62447.0356.327130.95786110791001.541.54FF33.624351.624132450.2260615423158.960642034620.92931239508171165121124DRYL
2023-05-06 00:00:04FORECAST2023225-6064.7647.40856.084134.10255356573001.621.62FF32.76346.76132451.4009115935560.5340149265940.91795836702812165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023225-6065.9348.2957.11129.729575568860.015748040.015748041.551.56574804FF33.93361.93132449.7646222687458.3477735528110.93303123363898165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2023225-6066.12847.6656.894128.61939876545001.311.31FF34.128362.128132449.3463133532157.7946526609620.93535596760713165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 12:00:05FORECAST2023225-6066.81246.45456.633131.08198017271001.231.23FF34.812355.812132450.2726102482859.0226253688790.94290860770705165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 08:00:05FORECAST2023225-6064.41844.4254.419132.47038547462001.311.31FF32.418340.418132450.7923086312759.7166308933770.91310390843446165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 04:00:12FORECAST2023225-6057.57843.30450.441133.95184571984001.21.2FF25.578332.578132451.3448213110360.4584718707020.76848088427834164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-05 00:00:05FORECAST2023225-6060.45842.36851.413134.43788020397001.391.39FF28.458336.458132451.5256360891660.7021493735740.8407172728872164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-04 20:00:04FORECAST2023225-6059.8141.86450.837138.1942681759001.41.4FF27.81324.81132452.9155854405962.5903378754210.82590288294574164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-04 16:00:10FORECAST2023225-6068.70243.89856.3137.18961111013001.251.25FF36.702331.702132452.5451375558662.0844914310680.96021405743216165121118DRYL
2023-05-04 12:00:07FORECAST2023225-6070.4339.34454.887137.61097901772001.421.42FF38.43324.43132452.7006239350562.2965760616330.97205886089562165121118DRYL
2023-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023225-6066.34438.06652.205137.76315563491001.491.49FF34.344325.344132452.756736802462.3731967968640.9378202685814165121124DRYL
2023-05-04 04:00:16FORECAST2023225-6058.49634.73646.616138.118341845470.047244120.047244121.381.42724412FF26.496321.496132452.8876220824762.5520874043670.79327810616157164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-04 00:00:07FORECAST2023225-6040.62233.40437.013138.56200167426001.521.52FF8.622291.622132453.0509439054162.7756456479470.20690193236619161121122DRYL
2023-05-03 20:00:06FORECAST2023225-6037.79627.2332.513142.6394531970800.091.51.59FF5.796294.796132454.5433643808964.8358169496510.14099107001411161121122DRYL
2023-05-03 16:00:08FORECAST2023225-6033.49428.65231.073143.668450406100.41.622.02FF1.494282.494132454.9175596475865.3573008570920.07077311031649161122124DRYL
2023-05-03 12:00:10FORECAST2023225-6043.75437.72440.739141.4517329644100.191.992.18FF11.754305.754132454.1102317254764.2346792344390.29782094534736162122125DRYL
2023-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023225-6043.53837.9440.739140.5342347242400.191.92.09FF11.538305.538132453.7747467398263.7708867702640.29100977892108162122125DRYL
2023-05-03 04:00:21FORECAST2023225-6033.29633.06233.179146.6062429152100.112.42.51FF1.296266.296132455.9805227688566.8495912856560.068346930828065161122124DRYL