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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 12, 2023

[ Thursday, May 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 13, 2023 ]

DAY 224 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/13/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.942
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 358

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.13 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 128 in
SWE DAY: 131
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.36 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -61

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-13 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023224-6166.1600444.5400655.35005127.9016470833300.131.531.66FF34.16004358.16004131448.50862973377 57.3649924740380.9423488122454816 5122128DRYL
2023-05-13 00:00:02FORECAST2023224-6056.40837.97647.192126.103536800.131.531.66FF24.408348.408132448.393972679856.5440658347250.7558353116758164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 12:00:02FORECAST2023224-6055.59837.14846.373128.187570400.131.531.66FF23.598347.598132449.1832837334857.5797138060880.73230832589809164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 08:00:02FORECAST2023224-6056.33637.09446.715128.133942400.131.531.66FF24.336348.336132449.1630248883757.5530291592570.75379008883793164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 04:00:10FORECAST2023224-6055.95838.55247.255128.3619258666700.131.531.66FF23.958347.958132449.2491302659757.6664835548650.74290386020344164122127DRYL
2023-05-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023224-6155.86837.9446.904127.93287200.131.531.66FF23.868341.868131448.5204776859757.3805128611780.74027554357383164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 20:00:01FORECAST2023224-6157.238.22847.714129.948064800.131.531.66FF25.2344.2131449.283136637858.3834741533560.77771751133225164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 16:00:01FORECAST2023224-6157.8338.5748.2129.888729600.131.531.66FF25.83344.83131449.2607366931558.3539063482330.79429596305644164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2023224-6157.21839.12848.173128.719245600.131.531.66FF25.218344.218131448.8185489111257.7715850271260.77820149816826164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2023224-6157.3840.76649.073128.630587200.131.531.66FF25.38344.38131448.7849731305357.7274746203160.78253025291233164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 04:00:08FORECAST2023224-6158.5538.94848.749128.4530231666700.131.531.66FF26.55345.55131448.717705199757.639145781310.81231674747413164122127DRYL
2023-05-11 00:00:04FORECAST2023224-6157.50639.1148.308127.942869600.031.531.56FF25.506337.506131448.5242709670557.3854823127730.78586314462748164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2023224-6157.54238.8448.191129.852971200.011.531.54FF25.542337.542131449.2472357203758.3360883616760.786809922164164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 16:00:03FORECAST2023224-6157.3839.14648.263129.7183600.011.531.54FF25.38336.38131449.1964007997858.269020429650.78253025291233164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2023224-6156.64239.12847.885128.996792800.011.531.54FF24.642335.642131448.9236098082657.9097058774640.76241864559719164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2023224-6156.46239.48847.975128.932931200.061.531.59FF24.462336.462131448.8994426168257.8779209506330.757363205581164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 04:00:16FORECAST2023224-6156.46239.86648.164128.990496500.031.531.56FF24.462338.462131448.9212272690957.9065719948290.757363205581164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2023224-6157.30840.3748.839129.204574400.041.21.24FF25.308337.308131449.0022136281558.0131399164830.78061240036712164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2023224-6156.28239.23647.759129.958908800.031.21.23FF24.282333.282131449.2872300486458.3888781548960.75225017319913164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 16:00:05FORECAST2023224-6157.79439.1148.452129.756204800.051.21.25FF25.794336.794131449.2106943640258.2878748562480.79336881313423164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2023224-6156.5738.01247.291129.88589600.061.21.26FF24.57332.57131449.2596668813958.3524943695510.76040342427657164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 08:00:05FORECAST2023224-6154.7739.18246.976129.696574400.091.21.29FF22.77331.77131449.188171995458.2581671688010.70713315671736164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 04:00:11FORECAST2023224-6156.80439.61448.209129.6193136714300.091.211.3FF24.804334.804131449.1589855878758.2196794412560.76691874732317164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-09 00:00:04FORECAST2023224-6157.63239.59648.614131.0374467816700.051.381.43FF25.632338.632131449.6937955770658.9267268059760.78916617797145164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 20:00:05FORECAST2023224-6155.79639.05647.426131.5559151303400.021.431.45FF23.796333.796131449.888841294359.18553822340.73816296366535164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2023224-6155.74238.55247.147131.598272800.021.421.44FF23.742334.742131449.9047647334259.2066899634080.73657277256241164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 12:00:06FORECAST2023224-6155.77838.89447.336131.374495045300.011.421.43FF23.778333.778131449.8206209969359.0949569444350.73763344679252164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-08 08:00:04FORECAST2023224-6153.99636.78845.392132.0833155585900.011.481.49FF21.996328.996131450.0869838662259.4489811188140.68265221046009163121123DRYL
2023-05-08 04:00:12FORECAST2023224-6154.03237.41845.725131.7262996278500.021.51.52FF22.032328.032131449.9528832049159.2706283114640.68380989366329163121123DRYL
2023-05-08 00:00:05FORECAST2023224-6154.2337.41845.824132.923054345800.011.371.38FF22.23327.23131450.401923653759.8687993752730.69014476774717163121123DRYL
2023-05-07 16:00:05FORECAST2023224-6155.90439.48847.696132.3315251308100.041.421.46FF23.904332.904131450.1801435547459.5730249802070.7413285295159164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2023224-6156.35437.83247.093133.5221754183100.051.41.45FF24.354325.354131450.6262107364860.1685919580430.75430225290105164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 08:00:03FORECAST2023224-6154.66238.51646.589133.0672079474100.031.391.42FF22.662327.662131450.4559202101759.9409116057470.70377018540342164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 04:00:12FORECAST2023224-6155.02237.88646.454132.30990302259001.171.17FF23.022328.022131450.1720305345659.5622177035090.71491043902082164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023224-6153.5134.71844.114133.49483517437001.21.2FF21.51321.51131450.61598306860.1549063866010.66685239383116163121123DRYL
2023-05-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023224-6155.20237.00446.103133.79284011291001.31.3FF23.202323.202131450.7274249512960.304102301010.72040473152372164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-06 16:00:06FORECAST2023224-6153.9636.42845.194134.44924301543001.411.41FF21.96321.96131450.9725959559860.6329241469840.68149273902711163121123DRYL
2023-05-06 12:00:06FORECAST2023224-6155.52636.82446.175133.44437865981001.271.27FF23.526322.526131450.597106005560.1296508368110.73016314850772164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-06 08:00:07FORECAST2023224-6154.21235.85245.032133.90103788128001.311.31FF22.212320.212131450.7678657042660.358285061330.68957115789011163121123DRYL
2023-05-06 04:00:12FORECAST2023224-6157.68637.52647.606134.10666110791001.591.59FF25.686328.686131450.8446902522960.4612760879660.79057258462778164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-06 00:00:04FORECAST2023224-6159.07237.88648.479137.18916476573001.671.67FF27.072325.072131451.9915728674362.0083463628320.82475278505298164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023224-6160.56640.62250.594132.93800596886001.61.6FF28.566338.566131450.4075250998659.8762782601430.85738610074802165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2023224-6162.85238.94850.9131.87053476545001.361.36FF30.852338.852131450.0070747763559.3426735989930.89890818568677165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 12:00:05FORECAST2023224-6162.02437.63449.829134.31235377271001.281.28FF30.024332.024131450.9215006096760.5643281136080.88502100285415165121124DRYL
2023-05-05 08:00:05FORECAST2023224-6159.07236.4147.741135.41638307462001.361.36FF27.072319.072131451.3330854178161.1178939891880.82475278505298164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-05 04:00:12FORECAST2023224-6155.45436.10445.779136.36805771984001.251.25FF23.454318.454131451.6869469607161.5956716544340.72800940949012164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023224-6156.0335.22245.626136.97286100397001.441.44FF24.03319.03131451.9113870661361.8995956067180.74499652428732164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-04 20:00:04FORECAST2023224-6156.67834.12445.401140.6318329759001.451.45FF24.678307.678131453.261889042463.743050274150.76342276306802164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-04 16:00:09FORECAST2023224-6158.13632.16245.149140.18943351013001.31.3FF26.136306.136131453.099268621263.519729791860.80207676325235164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-04 12:00:07FORECAST2023224-6154.10432.59443.349140.17862861772001.471.47FF22.104297.104131453.0952945936163.5142770292720.68611985769664163121123DRYL
2023-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023224-6152.12431.56841.846140.09710523491001.541.54FF20.124302.124131453.0653068665963.4731379743770.62022537602392163121123DRYL
2023-05-04 04:00:16FORECAST2023224-6152.23234.0743.151140.10523464547001.431.43FF20.232306.232131453.0682974842563.4772401294520.62393263906628163121123DRYL
2023-05-04 00:00:07FORECAST2023224-6149.44234.73642.089138.81242967426001.571.57FF17.442294.442131452.5919283514762.8253852254270.52546451551382163121123DRYL
2023-05-03 20:00:06FORECAST2023224-6145.53632.07238.804142.7650115970800.161.481.64FF13.536299.536131454.0434586236664.8215196359840.38634451016526162122125DRYL
2023-05-03 16:00:08FORECAST2023224-6143.71831.02837.373143.69000000610.035433090.615433091.452.06543309FF11.718291.718131454.3810485981965.2900128758440.32526086484855162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-03 12:00:09FORECAST2023224-6155.68835.13245.41141.795739364410.03937010.34937011.882.2293701FF23.688304.688131453.6888544700164.3311465609690.73497767255459164122127DRYL
2023-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023224-6152.77236.26644.519140.880799524240.03937010.33937011.82.1393701FF20.772304.772131453.353325658463.8687789857260.6422917402626163122126DRYL
2023-05-03 04:00:20FORECAST2023224-6142.67433.22437.949146.625627715210.110236280.530236282.032.56023628FF10.674275.674131455.447216973866.7802340799320.29207888095126162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-03 00:00:06FORECAST2023224-6137.47222.7330.101146.4356022751700.991.352.34FF5.472269.472131455.3784434598166.6836166311660.1545158839731161123126DRYL
2023-05-02 20:00:08FORECAST2023224-6139.21828.09433.656150.9147388590201.061.222.28FF7.218268.218131456.9907233449468.9666356745970.19503589917458161124128DRYL
2023-05-02 16:00:08FORECAST2023224-6147.69643.05245.374143.8010366003200.981.232.21FF15.696303.696131454.4215199639465.3462856243060.46263419599387162123127.5DRYL
2023-05-02 12:00:05FORECAST2023224-6135.65431.8233.737150.5783905670901.91.123.02TF3.654266.654131456.8702896374468.7947929115270.118681690722971611251210DRYL
2023-05-02 08:00:07FORECAST2023224-6135.94234.05234.997153.3278585902.211.233.44TF3.942265.942131457.8517604890870.2014299874540.12393026173861611251210DRYL
2023-05-02 04:00:15FORECAST2023224-6131.62230.90231.262152.729378144570.023622062.053622061.693.74362206TF-0.378259.622131457.6387056162369.8948749236550.0609942911040171611251210DRYL