Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 11, 2023

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DAY 223 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/12/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.35°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.31°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.83°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.692 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 325 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.46 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 130 in SWE DAY: 130 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.87 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 58.51 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -62 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-12 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	223	-62	54.35006	37.31	45.83003	130.34094666667	0	0.46	1.67	2.13	F	F	22.35006	325.35006	130	448.86611629926	58.505634525036	0.69248133624388	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-12 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	223	-61	48.398	32.504	40.451	129.874796	0	0.46	1.67	2.13	F	F	16.398	319.398	131	449.25547605676	58.346963304755	0.4728683828747	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-61	49.352	32.414	40.883	130.8179208	0	0.46	1.67	2.13	F	F	17.352	320.352	131	449.61113334735	58.817193633031	0.50935477459852	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-61	48.83	32.576	40.703	130.8426192	0	0.46	1.67	2.13	F	F	16.83	319.83	131	449.62043579982	58.829515465894	0.48938070266856	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-11 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	223	-61	49.496	32.324	40.91	130.61221436667	0	0.46	1.67	2.13	F	F	17.496	320.496	131	449.53363300875	58.714583239566	0.51486286352881	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.442	33.548	41.495	130.045284	0	0.36	1.67	2.03	F	F	17.442	313.442	130	448.75415232408	58.358361185164	0.51279760597791	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.514	31.928	40.721	131.8864072	0	0.34	1.67	2.01	F	F	17.514	312.514	130	449.44999754829	59.276345392693	0.51555119686484	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.424	33.62	41.522	131.8069984	0	0.34	1.67	2.01	F	F	17.424	312.424	130	449.4200524076	59.236708128617	0.51210910777968	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.632	34.034	41.333	131.0496136	0	0.34	1.67	2.01	F	F	16.632	311.632	130	449.13413808414	58.858855250495	0.4818085839091	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.794	34.214	41.504	131.0111392	0	0.39	1.67	2.06	F	F	16.794	312.794	130	449.11959923346	58.839670332623	0.48800358896528	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-10 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.82	34.232	42.026	131.1134765	0	0.36	1.67	2.03	F	F	17.82	314.82	130	449.15826770021	58.890701976893	0.52724410340649	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.748	34.736	42.242	131.4004688	0	0.04	1.67	1.71	F	F	17.748	312.748	130	449.2666550293	59.033849087057	0.524494568098	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.668	33.584	41.126	132.0210776	0	0.03	1.67	1.7	F	F	16.668	309.668	130	449.50076809031	59.343575785311	0.48318492489599	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.73	33.314	41.522	131.9176592	0	0.05	1.67	1.72	F	F	17.73	311.73	130	449.46178105367	59.291946056463	0.52380699683458	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.75	32.846	40.298	131.8487792	0	0.06	1.67	1.73	F	F	15.75	308.75	130	449.43580874346	59.257562711589	0.44819586239752	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.092	33.152	40.622	131.6827784	0	0.09	1.67	1.76	F	F	16.092	310.092	130	449.37319680119	59.174711093271	0.46119863457569	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.362	33.62	40.991	131.70401607143	0	0.1	1.67	1.77	F	F	16.362	311.362	130	449.38120866824	59.185309928641	0.47149406647297	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	50.144	33.8	41.972	133.22182838167	0	0.07	1.83	1.9	F	F	18.144	314.144	130	449.95268244567	59.943519040649	0.53959907468735	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-08 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.992	33.944	41.468	133.57705113034	0	0.03	1.89	1.92	F	F	16.992	310.992	130	450.08611004515	60.121175334557	0.49557904409581	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.028	33.602	41.315	133.5684376	0	0.02	1.89	1.91	F	F	17.028	312.028	130	450.08287608323	60.116866548952	0.49695665097	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.064	33.368	41.216	133.3679806453	0	0.01	1.89	1.9	F	F	17.064	311.064	130	450.00759425448	60.01660412077	0.49833429413617	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.66	32.846	40.253	133.85923875859	0	0.01	1.95	1.96	F	F	15.66	307.66	130	450.19201866288	60.262360913404	0.44478273178802	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.57	33.062	40.316	133.54719162785	0	0.02	1.97	1.99	F	F	15.57	306.57	130	450.07489895101	60.106238777095	0.4413736899334	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.038	32.918	40.478	134.7461111458	0	0.01	1.84	1.85	F	F	16.038	306.038	130	450.52437942537	60.706408103943	0.4591424425173	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.956	34.574	41.765	134.39467793081	0	0.04	1.89	1.93	F	F	16.956	309.956	130	450.39276726505	60.530390898953	0.49420148994047	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.922	32.522	39.722	135.47797381831	0	0.16	1.76	1.92	F	F	14.922	301.922	130	450.79808608309	61.073211303708	0.41697166928218	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.832	32.936	39.884	135.01434714741	0	0.14	1.75	1.89	F	F	14.832	305.832	130	450.62475510342	60.840807118747	0.41360544511529	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.174	32.432	39.803	134.22653822259	0	0.03	1.61	1.64	F	F	15.174	306.174	130	450.32975718039	60.446204364942	0.42642876466952	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.22	32.27	39.245	135.13870557437	0	0.02	1.65	1.67	F	F	14.22	301.22	130	450.67126764824	60.903131749545	0.39089526667978	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.94	33.026	39.983	135.68654811291	0	0.07	1.7	1.77	F	F	14.94	300.94	130	450.87599690546	61.177807647068	0.41764565345049	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.976	31.244	39.11	136.26482141543	0	0.12	1.76	1.88	F	F	14.976	300.976	130	451.09178932896	61.467942114877	0.4189943457684	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.706	31.406	39.056	135.36957465981	0	0.09	1.65	1.74	F	F	14.706	299.706	130	450.75757836862	61.018861658446	0.40890342975995	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.364	30.902	38.633	135.71002348128	0	0.13	1.65	1.78	F	F	14.364	299.364	130	450.88476330839	61.189581815933	0.39620856392739	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.282	31.694	39.488	136.12120430791	0	0.27	1.79	2.06	F	F	15.282	304.282	130	451.03822576663	61.395866480259	0.43049512431997	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.39	30.722	39.056	139.46987996573	0	0.11	2.03	2.14	F	F	15.39	299.39	130	452.28208119583	63.079727575034	0.43456886677475	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	49.622	34.07	41.846	135.43293796886	0	0.06	2.01	2.07	F	F	17.622	310.622	130	450.78125797711	61.050630149137	0.51968015206597	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-05-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.092	32.396	40.244	134.32167876545	0	0.02	1.81	1.83	F	F	16.092	309.092	130	450.36541425087	60.493838500075	0.46119863457569	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.39	27.14	37.265	136.78317777271	0	0.02	1.73	1.75	F	F	15.39	303.39	130	451.28495352067	61.728190023567	0.43456886677475	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	44.024	26.24	35.132	137.57262227462	0	0.02	1.81	1.83	F	F	12.024	293.024	130	451.57864984748	62.12485902275	0.31290151420078	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	44.69	26.726	35.708	138.26570171984	0	0	1.72	1.72	F	F	12.69	295.69	130	451.8360105426	62.473423059964	0.33587262781532	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.362	29.282	38.822	138.80516740397	0	0.02	1.89	1.91	F	F	16.362	296.362	130	452.03601661826	62.74493495932	0.47149406647297	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.22	28.868	37.544	142.4240905759	0	0	1.92	1.92	F	F	14.22	284.22	130	453.37066433212	64.570904561292	0.39089526667978	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 16:00:09	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	44.924	29.12	37.022	142.04909511013	0	0	1.77	1.77	F	F	12.924	280.924	130	453.23293622263	64.381328464531	0.34409709073952	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.31	24.836	35.573	141.71101181772	0	0.05	1.89	1.94	F	F	14.31	276.31	130	453.10865269342	64.210485636547	0.39421375977367	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	44.924	25.736	35.33	141.47746043491	0	0.05	1.96	2.01	F	F	12.924	282.924	130	453.02273401434	64.092505927631	0.34409709073952	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	46.436	27.104	36.77	141.61882344547	0	0.03	1.87	1.9	F	F	14.436	287.436	130	453.07474460393	64.163912263663	0.39887252609202	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-04 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	43.052	30.884	36.968	140.17448247426	0	0	2.04	2.04	F	F	11.052	278.052	130	452.54245911563	63.434905004163	0.28065775616229	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	42.98	32.054	37.517	143.68357559708	0.09448824	0.16448824	1.95	2.11448824	F	F	10.98	286.98	130	453.83228818467	65.208245887777	0.27833463090042	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	43.592	32.18	37.886	144.3692552061	0.35826791	0.57826791	1.92	2.49826791	F	F	11.592	280.592	130	454.08298191638	65.555621901032	0.29837334450681	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	47.3	33.656	40.478	143.41825696441	0.14960638	0.32960638	2.33	2.65960638	F	F	15.3	282.3	130	453.73516688816	65.073906758558	0.43117358013506	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	48.164	33.494	40.829	142.50656432424	0.14960638	0.29960638	2.27	2.56960638	F	F	16.164	285.164	130	453.40093764632	64.612609885364	0.46394182886086	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 04:00:20	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	45.05	31.118	38.084	147.39265571521	0	0.5	2.42	2.92	F	F	13.05	266.05	130	455.18318580812	67.090658593171	0.34855667693239	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-03 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	42.26	29.336	35.798	146.57700307517	0.09842525	0.98842525	1.82	2.80842525	F	F	10.26	265.26	130	454.88720465383	66.6760031954	0.2556319000872	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-05-02 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	43.682	30.488	37.085	151.11852525902	0.16141741	1.06141741	1.69	2.75141741	F	F	11.682	261.682	130	456.527445283	68.989754271435	0.30137468286462	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-05-02 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	58.082	34.25	46.166	144.36565580032	0.44094512	0.98094512	1.7	2.68094512	F	F	26.082	289.082	130	454.08166706462	65.553797652686	0.80536905374747	16	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2023-05-02 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	41.396	28.274	34.835	150.62946016709	0.68110273	1.90110273	1.59	3.49110273	T	F	9.396	264.396	130	456.35171959121	68.740013168347	0.22972060875446	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-05-02 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	42.368	28.724	35.546	153.45322019	0.84252014	2.21252014	1.7	3.91252014	T	F	10.368	263.368	130	457.36332134728	70.183874457536	0.25897469849048	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2023-05-02 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	36.212	31.064	33.638	152.49134612122	0.95669343	2.07669343	2.11	4.18669343	T	F	4.212	261.212	130	457.01954796082	69.691526072259	0.10796367043685	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2023-05-02 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	33.314	31.568	32.441	143.62784166161	0	0.04	1.45	1.49	F	F	1.314	261.314	130	453.81189191121	65.180022555581	0.064757144547161	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2023-05-01 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	31.388	26.852	29.12	146.78487341092	0	0.25	1.7	1.95	F	F	-0.612	242.388	130	454.96269414238	66.78164146638	0.044435340047706	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-05-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	31.766	23	27.383	149.9351352364	0	0.73	1.87	2.6	F	F	-0.234	253.766	130	456.10186686771	68.385695090383	0.047957322227888	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	27.914	26.186	27.05	146.7242755973	0.10236226	0.51236226	1.61	2.12236226	F	F	-4.086	268.914	130	454.94069176106	66.750843438377	0.020865161761706	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	27.914	26.186	27.05	147.83715088357	0.10236226	0.57236226	1.47	2.04236226	F	F	-4.086	260.914	130	455.34422469639	67.316792850404	0.020865161761706	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-05-01 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	223	-62	39.956	39.416	39.686	147.33196558002	0	0.44	1.64	2.08	F	F	7.956	279.956	130	455.16118389536	67.059791879032	0.18998587587397	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L